The Peru-Bolivian Confederation lasts

IOTL Peru and Bolivia were united briefly during the early 19th century (1836 - 1839) under the Peru-Bolivian Confederation. It didn't last due to internal divergences and foreign opposition (especially from Chile).

However, which PODs could make this union be permanent? And how would such country affect the balance of power in South America?

From the looks of it you'd need to find some way to keep the neighboring countries, especially Chile and Argentina from getting overly worried by its creation, perhaps a crack down and arrest/murder of all opposition politicians before they could flee to form an opposition in Chile.

Creating a new, strong national identity would work to.

Well, the obvious military POD is the War against the Restauration Army led by Gamarra and sent by Chile.

Wiki says that the Peru-Bolivian army was one of the best in South America at the time, although then again, so was Paraguay's in 1865, so we make take that particular data cum grano.

The Battle of Portada de Guias, in which Lima fell, and the Battle of Yungay stand out as the most obvious examples of when to make the Confederacy succeed.

Now, if Gamarra and Castilla are killed or imprisoned before reaching Chile, or if the political situation in Chile becomes chaotic enough to allow some years of stability for the Confederacy to consolidate itself, then of course Argentina won't attack, no matter how much Rosas wants the Alto Peru back.

For example, the Quillota Mutiny of 1837 in Chile could escalate into a mini civil war given the right circumstances, or even led to some years of political instability and distrust amongst the ranks of the army and the conservative party and the destroyed liberals.

And of course, since this Confederacy is dominated by Santa Cruz and Bolivia, we need for the Lower Peru to feel more included and less dominated by the Bolivians.

maverick said:

For example, the Quillota Mutiny of 1837 in Chile could escalate into a mini civil war given the right circumstances, or even led to some years of political instability and distrust amongst the ranks of the army and the conservative party and the destroyed liberals.

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That's a good idea. Maybe if Vidaurre had taken Valparaíso then the Civil War wouldn't allow Chile to go to war with Peru-Bolivia.


Othe idea that I don't know if would work is just let the war happen as IOTL, but make the later invasion of Bolivia by the Peruvian forces of Gamarra be successful. Maybe if he wins the battle of Ingavi (where he died IOTL) and pushes into Bolivian territory he could have annexed it, making the country more Peruvian dominated.

That's also an interesting possibility.

Even more interesting (and crazier) would be something like I did in my TL "Araremos en el Mar", in which the Confederacy survives...under Baldomero Espartero!

maverick said:

That's also an interesting possibility.

Even more interesting (and crazier) would be something like I did in my TL "Araremos en el Mar", in which the Confederacy survives...under Baldomero Espartero!

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That's true, I forgot that wonderful piece!

It reminds me, when we'll have more from "Araremos en el Mar"?

The last update was supposed to be two weeks ago, but I feel bad updating since Nichomacheus can't update his own (which is admittedly better written and more interesting than mine, but that's besides the point)

The next chapter should either wrap things up in Peru or start with Brazil...finally.

If I start tomorrow, I'll post it by Friday.

The Battle of Yungay should have been won by the Peruvian-Bolivians, by all means. It was a fluke that they lost the battle... the Chileans were horribly wracked with disease and had to fight uphill! That's probably the best POD in my opinion.

To those that do not know much about this read this: http://www.onwar.com/aced/data/papa/pbconfed1836.htm

I also recommend reading this which has much more details: http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Peru-Bolivian_Confederation


Chances are if Cruz had not interfered in the politics of Argentina and Chile that they would not have gotten involved against the Confederation.
He also need to reassure them and the protestors inside of the confederation of the benefits.
His confederation plan would probably have both Peru and Bolivia much better off today. Would think a federal system might have been
better in the longrun.

Question - Peru was divided into North and South with there own Presidents. Do you think if Cruz was the only President that many of these internal problems in the confederation would not have existed.

Metro said:

Chances are if Cruz had not interfered in the politics of Argentina and Chile that they would not have gotten involved against the Confederation.
He also need to reassure them and the protestors inside of the confederation of the benefits.

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I'm not sure if Chile wouldn't intervene. The Chileans were very concerned about the power of the Confederation (after all, there was already the competition for the South American Pacific). I think that keeping Chile busy for a while would be necessary. If not, then you need a clear Chilean defeat in the war, or make Gamarra (who was seen as an ally) to conquer Bolivia later.

Metro said:

His confederation plan would probably have both Peru and Bolivia much better off today. Would think a federal system might have been better in the longrun.

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I also have my doubts if a Confederation could last long. Theren't much examples of successful federations in Latin America during the 19th century. IOTL or they broke apart (Gran-Colombia, Central American Federation) or they became centralized (Brazil, Argentina). At that time, the more power you gave to provinces the more they wanted and would fight for it. Probably to have this country surviving we would need someone imposing a more centralized government soon or later.

Metro said:

Question - Peru was divided into North and South with there own Presidents. Do you think if Cruz was the only President that many of these internal problems in the confederation would not have existed.

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Cruz wanted to break Peru because he didn't want the Peruvians as the dominant power in the Confederation. However it pissed off the elite of Lima, which was the capital since the 16th century and suddenly saw it being transferred to Tacna, in Southern Peru (as a way to appease the Southern Peruvians and also put the power nearer to Bolivia).

If Cruz had been the only president you still have this problem of the center of power being removed from Lima. The fact is that the birth of the Confederation would have regional conflicts anyway. However, if we could remove the threat of Chile then whoever is in power could have a chance to suffocate the regional rebellions and impose his rule.