Plausibility question: Alternate Congress of Vienna

I was thinking of continuing my timeline, which I basicly abandoned after a writers block. I still have that writers block, but I decided to skip that part. I decided to continue with the peace treaty and start from there.
What happened is basicly this: King Louis , king of Holland appointed by his brother Napoleon, decided to betray him and started to cooperate with Britain. Napoleon is now defeated and the other countries decide to devide Europe, like OTL in Vienna. (In my timeline the congress is in Berlin BTW).

I would like to propose the folowing peace, but wanted first to know how reasonable it is.

The Netherlands remains the kingdom of Holland ruled by king Louis. To create a counter balance against France Belgium and Luxembourg are added to it, just like OTL. It also gains departement Nord from France (basicly French Flanders and Hainaut) and keeps east Frisia. I was also thinking that it would regain much of Prussian Gueldres. To make this acceptable for Prussia and Austria it becomes a member of the German confederation (and no Susano, this does not mean it will become part of Germany at a later stage).

Sardinia gains Corsica.

Britain (which had returned the Dutch colonies to the Netherlands for Louis'support) keeps the French colonies in the carribean, French guyana and st Pierre and Miquelon.*

The house of orange, pretty unhappy they didn't got the netherlands back, keep their ancestral lands in nassau and gain (part of) the Duchy of Berg and a land connection to Nassau.

Prussia gains all of Saxony, but doesn't gain as much territory in the west. They keep Cleve and Mark and gain the southern part of Munster (possibly the northern part of Berg and Julich).

Oldenburg gains the land between them and the Netherlands (but not East Frisia, which is Dutch.

Hanover gains part of Westphalia

As compensation for the loss of Saxony, its former rulers gain the rest of rhineland (possibly including the palatinate if it is reasonable to give it to them). I still need a good name for it (Saxony would be cool as it would be the third part of germany given that name).

* Not long after it will exchange the British colonies in Indonesia and Malaysia with the Dutch colonies in India and Ceylon.

Just one thing, I doubt the Prussian crown would have the funds necessary in order to have the congress in Berlin. Vienna seems the most likely place to have the kind of diplomatic meeting that happened in OTL. Paris would be a good choice an European Vienna-like congress, but it was the capital of the defeated enemy; Moscow would be too far away. London would be a plausible choice, but Vienna still seems best because of it's central position.

Other than that, good ideas, none of them seem too implausible (except perhaps Louis might not be seen in such good lights in a restored Europe to gain so many concessions, even if he helped defeat Napoleon, as he was still a product of the republican order; the Napoleons were VERY minor nobles in Corsica, never under the Ancién Regime would they reach a throne - Murat managed to keep the Neapolitan throne, but that was it, concessions to him would be unlikely at best)

By the way, the Portuguese might complain a bit that French Guyana wasn't given to them when they were the ones occupying it.

Andrelvis said:

Just one thing, I doubt the Prussian crown would have the funds necessary in order to have the congress in Berlin. Vienna seems the most likely place to have the kind of diplomatic meeting that happened in OTL. Paris would be a good choice an European Vienna-like congress, but it was the capital of the defeated enemy; Moscow would be too far away. London would be a plausible choice, but Vienna still seems best because of it's central position.

Other than that, good ideas, none of them seem too implausible.

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Really? Too bad, I liked the idea of it somewhere else than Vienna. But if London is a good other option, I'll go for that.

pompejus said:

Really? Too bad, I liked the idea of it somewhere else than Vienna. But if London is a good other option, I'll go for that.

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The congress almost bankrupted the crown of Austria Imagine what it would do to Prussia! Unless, of course, the other powers paid for part of the funding of the congress in Berlin.

pompejus said:

* Not long after it will exchange the British colonies in Indonesia and Malaysia with the Dutch colonies in India and Ceylon.

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hmmm...the British had a keen sense of worth, and they'd know all too well that this is a bum deal. The Dutch Indian possessions were worthless and Ceylon was not that valuable. By contrast, Singapore especially was worth good money. The British would need a huge counter offer to agree to hand over Singapore, and they might just refuse entirely.

On the other hand, the rest of the terms actually sound very acceptable.

Andrelvis said:

Unless, of course, the other powers paid for part of the funding of the congress in Berlin.

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Which they wouldn't, because it would be a massive prestige loss for Prussia - one that would almost make hosting the Congress pointless.

Falastur said:

hmmm...the British had a keen sense of worth, and they'd know all too well that this is a bum deal. The Dutch Indian possessions were worthless and Ceylon was not that valuable. By contrast, Singapore especially was worth good money. The British would need a huge counter offer to agree to hand over Singapore, and they might just refuse entirely.

On the other hand, the rest of the terms actually sound very acceptable.

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I believe Singapore wasn't founded yet in 1814. Anyway, I could keep singapore outside the deal.

Falastur said:

Which they wouldn't, because it would be a massive prestige loss for Prussia - one that would almost make hosting the Congress pointless.

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My thoughts exactly.

Thing is, the NL already was very lucky IOTL it got the Southern Netherlands. They were basically gifted to them. Now, here we have a Bonaparte Netherlands (which, even if it ends up on allied side will be viewed with suspicion) that in your scenario ends up getting gifted even more land? That seems somewhat improbable to me. Especially as the compensation for Nassau-Orange still needs to be solved.

Also you have the massive problem of Prussian compensation, as it apepars in that scenario Prussia gains neither Westphalia nor the Rhineland.

I don't think this is altogether plausible.

Murat was allowed to keep his thrown, and that was it, because the Austrians thought knocking him out of the war peacefully would improve their own post-war position in Italy. He was no way getting concessions, and accomodating him was already controversial.

Whereas with Louis, there's another clear candidate for his country needing to be satisfied, and no strategic reason for anyone to sponsor his defection. Why would Britain? We don't need him to, and we would to grab the Dutch colonies.

So yeah, Louis getting concessions at all is unlikely. His defection may even be turned down in the name of legitimacy. He is definately going to have to recognise Amiens, by which the Netherlands had already ceded Ceylon, and we were already set on having the Cape Colony. Since we'd been running the place for a decade, we were hardly going to give it back. The Netherlands are not getting any colonial deal better than what they got OTL.

was it something like this you imagined?

Susano said:

Thing is, the NL already was very lucky IOTL it got the Southern Netherlands. They were basically gifted to them. Now, here we have a Bonaparte Netherlands (which, even if it ends up on allied side will be viewed with suspicion) that in your scenario ends up getting gifted even more land? That seems somewhat improbable to me. Especially as the compensation for Nassau-Orange still needs to be solved.

Also you have the massive problem of Prussian compensation, as it apepars in that scenario Prussia gains neither Westphalia nor the Rhineland.

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But Prussia get the entire Saxony, something which at the time was seen as better than the entire Rhineland-Westphalen. So wouldn't they be happy with that?

Susano said:

Thing is, the NL already was very lucky IOTL it got the Southern Netherlands. They were basically gifted to them. Now, here we have a Bonaparte Netherlands (which, even if it ends up on allied side will be viewed with suspicion) that in your scenario ends up getting gifted even more land? That seems somewhat improbable to me. Especially as the compensation for Nassau-Orange still needs to be solved.

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You must remember that in this scenario Holland (which included east Frisia, which is why it is Dutch) was actively helping the allies. This is not the situation where Prussia occupied the southern Netherlands like OTL. The allies (is there a better term, this sounds so WWII) would still want a counterweight against France. Austria is still not interested. They will still not give it to France. Prussia doesn't control most of the rhineland anymore, so they will not be interested. Leaving basicly the Netherlands. I could still leave departement Nord and German Guadres outside of the Netherlands, I just thought it would be fun fun to include it. I leave the Netherlands inside the German confederation so Prussia can keep an I on the Bonapart.

Compensating Orange-Nassau is of course a problem, which is why I leave them their old nassau lands (except the lands of the other Nassau line, not sure what it was called) and give them Berg.

Susano said:

Also you have the massive problem of Prussian compensation, as it apepars in that scenario Prussia gains neither Westphalia nor the Rhineland.

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Prussia has all of Saxony. I remember hearing that Prussia would have given up the Rhineland for Saxony, which was closer to Prussia and therefore far more attractive. Except for that they also gained the southern part of Munster to connect Prussian Lingen, Cleve, Berg and Minden(?), I assumed that wuld be enough. I could give them more of the rhineland, but Saxony must be compensated in some way. I could give Prussia some more rhineland and more of Westphalia, but i suspect hanover must get something and without East Frisia I doubt hanover would be very interested in that part of Germany between the Netherlands and Oldenburg. So I gave hanover some part of Westphalia.

Valdemar II said:

But Prussia get the entire Saxony, something which at the time was seen as better than the entire Rhineland-Westphalen. So wouldn't they be happy with that?

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They would, but I don't think they would be allowed to keep Westphalia like in that map by the other powers. Truth be told, all of Saxony WAS better than the Rhineland, strategically. With the Zollverein and the later annexations the non-contiguous territory didn't become much of an issue, but at Vienna it was very much so. It is kind of analogous to the War of Bavarian Succession - where Austria wanted to trade the much richer Austrian Netherlands for Bavaria. Strategically it would pay off, which is why Prussia intervened in the question.

Valdemar II said:

was it something like this you imagined?

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Yeah, that is basicly it.

I Blame Communism said:

I don't think this is altogether plausible.

Murat was allowed to keep his thrown, and that was it, because the Austrians thought knocking him out of the war peacefully would improve their own post-war position in Italy. He was no way getting concessions, and accomodating him was already controversial.

Whereas with Louis, there's another clear candidate for his country needing to be satisfied, and no strategic reason for anyone to sponsor his defection. Why would Britain? We don't need him to, and we would to grab the Dutch colonies.

So yeah, Louis getting concessions at all is unlikely. His defection may even be turned down in the name of legitimacy. He is definately going to have to recognise Amiens, by which the Netherlands had already ceded Ceylon, and we were already set on having the Cape Colony. Since we'd been running the place for a decade, we were hardly going to give it back. The Netherlands are not getting any colonial deal better than what they got OTL.

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Maybe i should give Ceylon back to the English, certainly as I was trading it away anyway. But not the capecolony. In my timeline the British only had the Cape colony for 4 years, 1806-1810. The better deal the Dutch get, they already have at Berlin/Vienna/London, because that is one of the ways the British bought the Dutch support against Napoleon. As cmpensation the British just keep the French colonies and I think I will include a deal with the Dutch, which include the use of the cape colony, the rights for the eastern part of the cape (region of Natal) and Dutch help for creating an English colony there.

pompejus said:

I could give them more of the rhineland, but Saxony must be compensated in some way.

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The idea proposed by the Prussian king and the czar was that the king of Saxony had forfeited his throne by not turning against Napoleon soon enough. Hence the famous quote from Talleyrand "Treason is a matter of dates.".

Also, one thing I think is not being considered enough is diplomatic skill - if the Netherlands had a diplomat of the skill of a Metternich or Talleyrand, that would count quite a bit. The Netherlands would still most probably not participate in the reunion of the representatives of the Great Powers, except perhaps for affairs in it's region, but it could still influence the diplomats of other nations. The Cape, being important to the route to India, would most likely be impossible to get back from Britain, though, in any case.

Valdemar II said:

was it something like this you imagined?

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What did you do to the Hesse/Nassau area? Cant make head nor tails out of it...

Valdemar II said:

But Prussia get the entire Saxony, something which at the time was seen as better than the entire Rhineland-Westphalen. So wouldn't they be happy with that?

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Duh. Didnt see that. Well then... hm, yes. If the Saxon King is then compensated with the Rhineland, I guess it works.

pompejus said:

You must remember that in this scenario Holland (which included east Frisia, which is why it is Dutch) was actively helping the allies. This is not the situation where Prussia occupied the southern Netherlands like OTL. The allies (is there a better term, this sounds so WWII) would still want a counterweight against France. Austria is still not interested. They will still not give it to France. Prussia doesn't control most of the rhineland anymore, so they will not be interested. Leaving basicly the Netherlands. I could still leave departement Nord and German Guadres outside of the Netherlands, I just thought it would be fun fun to include it. I leave the Netherlands inside the German confederation so Prussia can keep an I on the Bonapart.

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Well, the SNL could be given to another house. Like Nassau-Orange Or, other way round, NL go to Nassau-Orange again and SL to Louis. Something like that. The problem I have is as said that the NL were lucky enough to be just gifted land the size of their corelands at Vienna IOTL, and you give them even more!

Hm, looking at Valdemars map, how about Guelders remain Prussian, and Luxemburg is part of the Saxon compensation?

Compensating Orange-Nassau is of course a problem, which is why I leave them their old nassau lands (except the lands of the other Nassau line, not sure what it was called) and give them Berg.

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Thing is by that time (I think since the Reichsdeputationshauptschluss, not sure, though) there was no Nassau-orange land in Nassau anymore. The Orange line was given Fulda and some scattered lands all over Germany... Hm, I guess they could keep Fulda, though it does make better sense as part of Hesse-Kassel, connecting their mainland to the Hanau possessions...

Or of course, France does lose some land and Nassau-Orange is randomly placed in charge of Alsace or something. I mean, if France loses Nord it can also lose the Alsace. Its the Vienna Conrgess, everything is up for negotiations, so such shenigans can happen...

Oh, wait I see now what you did in the map, Valdemar. Indeed, Fulda and some Nassau land, and "main Nassau" is compensated with some territory along the Rhine, right?

Susano said:

Well, the SNL could be given to another house. Like Nassau-Orange Or, other way round, NL go to Nassau-Orange again and SL to Louis. Something like that. The problem I have is as said that the NL were lucky enough to be just gifted land the size of their corelands at Vienna IOTL, and you give them even more!

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The idea was to make a somewhat stronger state in the northern border of France that could contain it, which a divided low countries would have a much lesser chance of doing.