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Old April 25th, 2009, 11:49 AM
pipisme pipisme is offline
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What if Henry VIII of England had died after falling from his horse in January 1536

In OTL Henry VIII was seriously injured when he fell from his horse during a joust on 15 January 1536. What would have been the consequencies for English history if he had died from his injuries? I assume his elder daughter Mary (born 18 Februry 1516) would succeed him to the English throne, though I expect there would be a power struggle between the Catholic and Protestant factions at court.

If Mary and the Catholic party gain and keep control, Mary would have returned England to its allegiance to Rome. There would not have been the dissolution of the monasteries in 1536 and 1539. Presumably Thomas Cranmer would have been removed as Archbishop of Canterbury, and probably tried for heresy. Because Protestantism was less established in 1536, fewer Protestants would have burnt for heresy if Mary became Queen in 1536 than in her reign (1553-1558) in OTL.

Who are likely husbands for Mary? Though she did not have any children from her marriage with Philip II of Spain in OTL, she is now 18 years younger, and more likely to bear children. When she dies in 1558 her eldest surviving child would succeed her as monarch. If she has no surviving children, presumably Elizabeth, the daughter of Henry VIII and Anne Boleyn would have become Queen.

There would be no Edward VI and no Book Of Common Prayer in 1549 and 1552.

What would have happened to Anne Boleyn? In OTL she was not arrested, tried and executed for adultery and treason until May 1536. With Henry's death would she have been safe?
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Old April 25th, 2009, 07:34 PM
Dr. Waterhouse Dr. Waterhouse is offline
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Others should feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that in January 1536 Henry VIII's daughter by Catherine of Aragon is still deemed illegitimate by virtue of being the product of an incestuous (and hence void) marriage. So at that point in the ever-changeable Henrician succession sweepstakes, she's still just the Lady Mary.

So the one legitimate child of Henry VIII at the moment is Elizabeth, who if crowned then and lived her natural lifespan would have a remarkable reign stretching from 1536 to 1603, beating George III and Victoria in terms of duration. I'm not sure of the dates of Anne Boleyn's adultery trial, but I have the feeling because she miscarried about this time with one of her possible male heirs, she would still be powerful enough to have one of the male members of her family be declared regent.

Of course that nets you the opposite effect that it seems you want, because then the Reformation goes full steam ahead and probably even has bit more momentum to it.

But there's no shortage of points of departure that net you a Catholic England through the sixteenth century: Bosworth goes differently; Arthur survives; Henry dies before he has children at all; Catherine of Aragon dies early (she was ill at the same time as Arthur) and the King's great matter is no matter at all because he's then free to marry or remarry someone else; Catherine of Aragon has a FTW moment and actually bears a healthy son; the Papacy decides to grant Henry's annulment, and so it goes. There's lots of possibilities here.

Of course I've always thought it would be hilarious for Henry to not break with Rome, but for the Protestants to become a serious pest for him (he was no friend to the evangelicals) so that he becomes known as a stalwart defender of the Catholic faith. Only for England to then be overrun by Protestants anyway, their rise perhaps fueled by the martyrs he burned. As it was, it was a joke among Protestants on the continent that he burned evangelical preachers at the stake to celebrate each marriage.
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Old April 26th, 2009, 01:18 AM
Matthais Corvinus Matthais Corvinus is offline
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Elizabeth as the child-queen with her grandfather in charge, backed up by her uncle and Cromwell would be very interesting. The Princess Mary is going to be recognized as the Queen of England by her Hapsburg relatives. If she can escape England then she and her heirs pose problems for Elizabeth. Also Mary, Queen of Scots, is bouncing around as another possibility, and Henry VIII's bastard son Henry Fitzroy, the Duke of Richmond, is also still alive. Fitzroy's mother's family apparently held land from the area where the Pilgrimage of Grace originated from.

All kinds of Tudor-ific possibilities.
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Old April 26th, 2009, 03:29 PM
Dr. Waterhouse Dr. Waterhouse is offline
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Oh, I had forgotten Henry Fitzroy! And the likely rumors about Anne Boleyn's adultery would indeed make any contest among the children of Henry VIII look like a competition among three illegitimate/questionable offspring. Fitzroy and Mary could say that at least they're certain who their father is. There could be as many as five factions in any dynastic civil war here, one for each of these three children of Henry VIII and one for each line descended from his sisters.

It could be extraordinarily bloody. However, if it comes down to what side wins the people, I think it would have to be Mary. Not just because of the Pilgrimage of Grace but because there is that later uprising against Lady Jane Grey in Mary's favor that installs her on the throne. And what pipisme says about the forces of the traditional religion being stronger in 1536 certainly is true, and would improve Mary's chances in any armed struggle.

The Protestants' best chances might be to combine different claims through marriage like Henry VII did with Elizabeth of York, but the youth and ill-health of many of the heirs involved would work against them.



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Originally Posted by Matthais Corvinus View Post
Elizabeth as the child-queen with her grandfather in charge, backed up by her uncle and Cromwell would be very interesting. The Princess Mary is going to be recognized as the Queen of England by her Hapsburg relatives. If she can escape England then she and her heirs pose problems for Elizabeth. Also Mary, Queen of Scots, is bouncing around as another possibility, and Henry VIII's bastard son Henry Fitzroy, the Duke of Richmond, is also still alive. Fitzroy's mother's family apparently held land from the area where the Pilgrimage of Grace originated from.

All kinds of Tudor-ific possibilities.
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Old April 26th, 2009, 04:05 PM
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I don't think FitzRoy would stand much of a chance to be honest, he was acknowledged illegitimate, where as Mary had been legitmate for a period.

The only way i could see FitzRoy being able to gain the throne was by dint of being male.

Don't think any of the sister's lines would inherit to be honest.
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Old April 26th, 2009, 04:06 PM
pipisme pipisme is offline
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If Henry VIII dies in January 1536, his daughter Mary would not accept her two-year-old half sister Elizabeth as queen. Nor would the Catholic party at court. I'm not sure about Thomas Howard, Duke Of Norfolk, the Lord High Treasurer. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_...uke_of_Norfolk ). He was the uncle of Anne Boleyn, but presided over her trial for adultery. He was a Catholic. Probably most people in England would regard Mary rather than Elizabeth as their rightful queen.

Whoever becomes queen would depend on which woman's supporters move fast and neutralise their opponents.

Because Henry Fitzroy is a bastard he would not be accepted as king of England. Anyway he died on 23 July 1536 of "consumption". Of course you could butterfly away his premature death, but there is the also the problem of his illegitimacy.

There are two scenarios. Either Elizabeth or Mary becomes queen.

1) The Elizabethan scenario: Possible regents for the child queen Elizabeth are Thomas Brandon, Duke of Suffolk; Henry Courtney, Earl of Devon; or Edward Seymour, Duke of Somerset. Mary does not accept Elizabeth as queen. She flees England and goes to Scotland where is warmly welcomed by King James V, who is strongly opposed to Protestantism. In OTL he married Madeline of Valois on 1 January 1537, so in this scenario it is possible for him to marry Mary in 1536.

Meantime the dissolution of the monasteries happens as in OTL, as does the Pilgrimage of Grace ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilgrimage_of_Grace ) in northern England. Mary persuades James to send an army in support of the rebels of the Pilgrimage. This could result in an inconclusive Anglo-Scottish war lasting several years.

James fathered children by his second wife, Mary of Guise, so it would be possible for him to father children by Mary. Assuming he dies in December 1542 as in OTL, he would be succeeded to the throne of Scotland by his eldest surviving child. If he dies childless, there would be a succession problem. Perhaps Mary would become queen of Scotland. A possible husband for her would be the 15-year-old Prince Philip of Spain.

Meanwhile in England the dissolution of the monasteries proceeds as in OTL, but the pace of the Reformation is speeded up with the Book of Common Prayer being published in the early to mid 1540s. However there is no Bloody Mary and her burning of Protestants, so Catholicism in England is not associated with persecution. But is tainted with treason and rebellion.

Elizabeth's regents would want to marry her off to a suitable foreign, preferably Protestant, prince. This raises possibilities of whom she marries, or if she marries at all. She reaches the age of 18 in September 1551 when she rules in her own right. Meanwhile Mary is still alive. In this scenario she dies in 1558 as in OTL.

Elizabeth reigns until she dies in 1603 as in OTL.

2) The Marian scenario. Mary's supporters gain the upper hand and she is crowned queen. Her sister and Anne Boleyn are treated humanely. They are dismissed from court and ordered to retire to the Boleyn family seat of Hever Castle in Kent, but Elizabeth is declared illegitimate and removed from the succession.

A possible husband for Mary is Sigismund II Augustus of Poland, born 1 August 1520. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigismund_II ) . He reigns as King of Poland from 1548 to 1572. The marriage between Sigismund and Mary gives rise to the Anglo-Polish alliance. In OTL he does not father children by any of his three wives, so it is unlikely that he would give Mary a child.

So Mary dies childless in 1558 as in OTL. Her nearest legitimate successor is Mary I of Scotland, who becomes queen of England and Scotland.

Because Protestantism is not as established in England as in OTL and because in OTL Sigismund was tolerant in his religious policy, there is much less persecution of Protestants during Mary's reign than there was in her reign in OTL.

There is no dissolution of the monasteries, except perhaps for those with few monks.
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Old April 26th, 2009, 05:51 PM
black angel black angel is offline
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our POD is 15 January 1536, Mary is "illegitimate" and barred to the Claim, Catherine of Aragon died 10 days before the POD, Mary is a maid in Elizabeths house and has been out of court for 3 years, she's weak, however so is Elizabeth she's a little over 2 years old, Mary is 19, Elizabeth's mother, Anne Boleyn, is losing her power over the King and the Boleyn's enemies are moving in for the kill, Henry FitzRoy is doubtful he's really illegitimate and would soon be died of tuberculosis, he's an ally of the Boleyn family, having married a Howard cousin of the Queen,


in the end it's hard to say who would be Queen, Mary is weak, but the Boleyn's are hated and at their very weakest (by May OTL Anne and George would be executed and Elizabeth Bastardized) the death of the King could save or damn them, with the king dead they will have some friends the didn't have in OTL, Henry FitzRoy, Archbishop Cranmer and Thomas Cromwell come to mind, the Duke of Norfolk is some thing of a wild card, he'd be for the fall of the Boleyn family, but not for the fall of Elizabeth with them, that i think is most likely, a young Queen under the power of Uncle Norfolk with Fitzroy as his enforcer and Cranmer and Cromwell running things
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Old April 26th, 2009, 06:51 PM
Matthais Corvinus Matthais Corvinus is offline
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With Henry VIII dead, then Princess Elizabeth would probably be crowned immediately. Though her mother and maternal grandfather and uncle were about to fall from power, that hasn't happened yet, and with Henry VIII now dead they are going to quickly move back into positions of power. I think that people are discounting the possibility of Cromwell and the Boleyns allying in order to support the late King's policy of the dissolution of the monasteries, and the larger reformation of the Church of England. The Duke of Suffolk, who supported the King's marriage to Anne and the royal religious policies, including the dissolution of the monasteries, would probably also be a supporter of this faction, adding in one of Elizabeth's paternal aunts, Suffolk's wife. The Brandon children would probably be named the heirs of Elizabeth, with Frances Brandon, the oldest child of Suffolk and his wife, the heiress to the English throne. Henry Fitzroy (the largest land-holder in the Kingdom of England on his OTL death in 1536), as previously stated, had a marriage (in 1533 before the POD) that would align him with this faction. In addition, he would be able to exercise more power in the regency court then in the court of his half-sister Mary. With the access to the monastic wealth, and extensive marriage ties and property of Suffolk and FitzRoy, the Boleyn-Suffolk-FitzRoy-Cromwell faction would be able to build up a considerable following in support of itself, and probably maintain control of the regency and the kingdom.

The Princess Mary would need to be imprisoned and secured by the regency in order to prevent her becoming a rallying point for any uprising against Elizabeth. The Pilgrimage of Grace could easily turn into a rebellion supporting Mary's claim to the throne, something that could be used by the regents to set up a show trail and execute Mary, thus terminating the most pressing danger to Elizabeth's throne.

As with any pre-1536 POD FitzRoy may live to make the Tudor dynasty even more interesting. If he had children, then I think that one could see a falling out in the regency, between supporters of Brandon and supporters of FitzRoy, over who gets to be the heir. Queen Elizabeth will certainly have an interesting reign if her bastard half-brother has any male children. Those children will represent the only male-line descendents of Henry VIII, and if Elizabeth fails to have children as per OTL, then they will have an pretty good claim to throne (along the lines of the Beaufort claim, which- along with killing the reigning king- was enough to get Henry VII the crown).
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Old April 26th, 2009, 07:07 PM
black angel black angel is offline
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i doubt if Elizabeth would be a "Virgin Queen" in this TL, in OTL she has her father's Wife's as Examples as to what happens when you marry a man, then backed up with the Thomas Seymour thing as to what love can do to a woman and then her sister Mary's Marriage to Philip and how the People will react to the Marriage of a Queen. in TTL none of that will happen
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Old April 26th, 2009, 07:46 PM
Minchandre Minchandre is offline
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If we get an Elizabethan ATL, I'd like to see Elizabeth married off to Maurice of Nassau, who is ruler of a nearby Protestant power. IRL Maurice never married but had a bunch of illegitimate children, so we'll probably get some good heirs out of this union.

With the might of England behind him, Maurice is successful in making Stadtholder a hereditary title, and may even be able to finagle an official restoration of monarchy to the Netherlands; in either event, we essentially get the Netherlands and England in a personal union...
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Old April 26th, 2009, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Minchandre View Post
If we get an Elizabethan ATL, I'd like to see Elizabeth married off to Maurice of Nassau, who is ruler of a nearby Protestant power. IRL Maurice never married but had a bunch of illegitimate children, so we'll probably get some good heirs out of this union.

With the might of England behind him, Maurice is successful in making Stadtholder a hereditary title, and may even be able to finagle an official restoration of monarchy to the Netherlands; in either event, we essentially get the Netherlands and England in a personal union...
It would be hard to make Elizabeth be married to Maurice and have children from him, since when he was born she was already 34-years-old.

Actually, the entire House of Nassau is an unlikely source of husbands to Elizabeth, since they are not royal. IOTL Charles V abdicated the throne of Naples and made his son Philip become king, in order to give him more status to marry Mary I. In the case of Elizabeth, a queen since the age of 02, her regents would surely try to engage her at an young age to some Protestant royal prince, from a respectful monarchy, both to create a solid alliance with a Protestant power and to ensure her succession. I suggest prince Frederick of Denmark (future Frederick II), or Eric of Sweden (future Eric XIV), who actually made negotiations to marry her IOTL.
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Old April 26th, 2009, 11:56 PM
black angel black angel is offline
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it should be noted that the Queen in OTL only courted Catholics(Philip II, Archduke Charles, Henri, Duke of Anjou, François, Duke of Anjou), though clearly she never meant to marry any of them
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Old April 27th, 2009, 12:42 AM
Minchandre Minchandre is offline
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It would be hard to make Elizabeth be married to Maurice and have children from him, since when he was born she was already 34-years-old.
Good call; I forgot the age disparity is one-way. *is embarrassed*

While Frederick and Eric are good calls, the regents might want her to marry a second son to prevent too quick a merger, and allow regents to continue to hold power for some time. Hans the Elder or Adolf (both issue of Frederick I of Denmark) might also be appropriate, or Johan (future Johan III) of Sweden
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Old April 27th, 2009, 01:38 AM
black angel black angel is offline
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there are a few things that i think people aren't thinking about,

1: the People, the People of England hate Anne Boleyn, and the Boleyn family, Anne is called a whore by every one, the People love the "good Queen" Catherine of Aragon who's death coming just before that of her husband will have people both thinking softly of the late, wronged, Queen and her equally wronged daughter Mary, and also seeing God's hand in their linked deaths, the People also think of the Boleyn's as upstarts put above were they should be in life, now to have this family of upstarts lead by the whore and the whore's daughter right after the death of the Good Queen and her husband were called by God.... it will not sit well

2: Charles V, just after the death of Catherine, Charles will surely be feeling badly, now with a weak 2 year old girl as Monarch and a hated family as Regents there's no better time for Charles to invade England and put Mary on the thrown
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Old April 27th, 2009, 01:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Minchandre View Post
Good call; I forgot the age disparity is one-way. *is embarrassed*

While Frederick and Eric are good calls, the regents might want her to marry a second son to prevent too quick a merger, and allow regents to continue to hold power for some time. Hans the Elder or Adolf (both issue of Frederick I of Denmark) might also be appropriate, or Johan (future Johan III) of Sweden
Good choices too. I thought about Frederick because Christian III would be the king when the regents would choose a husband for Elizabeth, and surely he would try to have his own issue married to a queen instead of his brothers. But it isn't impossible. However, Hans never married IOTL, you have any idea if there is a reason for this?

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there are a few things that i think people aren't thinking about,

1: the People, the People of England hate Anne Boleyn, and the Boleyn family, Anne is called a whore by every one, the People love the "good Queen" Catherine of Aragon who's death coming just before that of her husband will have people both thinking softly of the late, wronged, Queen and her equally wronged daughter Mary, and also seeing God's hand in their linked deaths, the People also think of the Boleyn's as upstarts put above were they should be in life, now to have this family of upstarts lead by the whore and the whore's daughter right after the death of the Good Queen and her husband were called by God.... it will not sit well

2: Charles V, just after the death of Catherine, Charles will surely be feeling badly, now with a weak 2 year old girl as Monarch and a hated family as Regents there's no better time for Charles to invade England and put Mary on the thrown
Well, I just assumed that once Elizabeth is quickly made the queen by the Boleyns (who, despite the shrinking influence, would still be in power in January) they would try to solve "Mary's problem" as fast as possible by getting rid of her. After all, sending her abroad is impossible, because that would give a reason to the Habsburgs invade, and letting her alive into a prison would be a source of rebellions.
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Old April 27th, 2009, 11:51 AM
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If Mary is living at Hatfield House in Hertfordshire, which is about 20 miles north of London, in mid January 1536, it would be easy for the regents for Elizabeth to capture her. It seems from this article - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_I_of_England - that she was living there then. However Queen Catherine's funeral in Peterborough Cathedral took place on 29 January 1536 (after the POD), which surely the regents would have no choice but to allow her to attend. Anne Boleyn miscarried on the same day. If Mary is captured and executed there would be widespread opposition from the people of England. Possibly a civil war?
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Old April 27th, 2009, 12:49 PM
black angel black angel is offline
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killing Mary would be deeply impolitic, however if they did kill her there are a lot of Catholic's that would have claim to the Crown, James V of Scotland comes to mind, Charles V has a Claim too, if you think about the number of Catholic tries on Elizabeth's Thrown in OTL, and that's in a much more Protestant England, in 1536 Cromwell started his Dissolution of the Monasteries which was deeply unpopular, with Henry VIII gone Cromwell and Cranmer would move faster then OTL, Elizabeth i think would end up TTL's Lady Jane
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Old April 27th, 2009, 02:41 PM
Matthais Corvinus Matthais Corvinus is offline
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there are a few things that i think people aren't thinking about, namely that although there may be popular discontent, Henry VIII had done a remarkably good job by 1536 at eliminating those who had any reservations about his political or religious decisions. The men who were left as his advisers were committed to his policies, and their lives depended on maintaining the system that Henry VIII left them. That means Mary is illegitimate and Elizabeth is the heiress of England.

Quote:
1: the People, the People of England hate Anne Boleyn, and the Boleyn family, Anne is called a whore by every one, the People love the "good Queen" Catherine of Aragon who's death coming just before that of her husband will have people both thinking softly of the late, wronged, Queen and her equally wronged daughter Mary, and also seeing God's hand in their linked deaths, the People also think of the Boleyn's as upstarts put above were they should be in life, now to have this family of upstarts lead by the whore and the whore's daughter right after the death of the Good Queen and her husband were called by God.... it will not sit well
It might not sit well with the people of England, but the councilors of the late King are very invested in his policies and in his political decisions. Mary is of age, and if she becomes Queen she could destroy those who brought about the fall of her mother and the break with Rome. IOTL most of these men were dead by the time Mary took the throne (the Boleyns, the Duke of Suffolk, Cromwell). The one who wasn't, the Archbishop Cranmer, was tried for heresy and treason.

Elizabeth is the only choice that the councilors of Henry VIII have, and she offers over a decade of regency rule, during which time the Reformation in England may be carried out. The child can be raised as a good Protestant, and she can be married to a Protestant prince who can tie England into the continental system of Protestant alliances.

Quote:
2: Charles V, just after the death of Catherine, Charles will surely be feeling badly, now with a weak 2 year old girl as Monarch and a hated family as Regents there's no better time for Charles to invade England and put Mary on the thrown
The Pilgrimage of Grace will certainly be a rebellion in support of Mary's claim to the throne. But without Mary free to lead it I don't think that it will come to much. If Mary were to escape, then I think she would be married to Reginald Pole, whose mother was the last Plantagenet. With Reginald and Mary, supported by Charles V, leading the Pilgrimage of Grace, the country is in for a civil war.

IOTL the rebels were able to seize York and rally between 30 and 40 thousand armed supporters. With a regency in London its questionable that they would have been about to unite enough to fight the rising. The rebels in OTL wanted to get rid of Cromwell. With that as a wedge, its possible that Mary can buy off other members of the regency with pardons, providing that Cromwell fall. I don't know what would be done with Queen Elizabeth. She is 2, and not at all responsible for her actions, and she is the half-sister of Mary. Possibly she is deposed and then name the heir to Mary in lieu of Reginald and Mary having children? Could that or would that be done?
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Old April 27th, 2009, 03:07 PM
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I don't know what would be done with Queen Elizabeth. She is 2, and not at all responsible for her actions, and she is the half-sister of Mary. Possibly she is deposed and then name the heir to Mary in lieu of Reginald and Mary having children? Could that or would that be done?
I doubt she would be made heir. To Mary, as Elizabeth is the bastard daughter of the whore who made her mother suffer, nominate that young child as her heir wouldn't be an option. I think she would be raised as a maid to some noble family Mary can trust, and when she has the right age she would be locked in a convent.
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Old April 27th, 2009, 04:15 PM
black angel black angel is offline
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for Elizabeth to regency to work and live through The Pilgrimage of Grace and claims by Mary or James V (or even Charles V) The Boleyns, the Duke of Suffolk, Cromwell, Archbishop Cranmer, and the Duke of Norfolk all need to work together, by 1536 Suffolk is set against The Boleyns as is Norfolk, Anne was fighting with Cromwell, Anne and her family want the top spot in a regency as will Cromwell, Suffolk and Norfolk, i forsee much infighting, though the Pilgrimage of Grace was about Cromwell in OTL, in TTL who knows what it will be about, but i think i'll bigger then OTL maybe James V will invade to take the hand of Mary (or if she's dead just take the crown with the Pope's blessing)
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