Deleted member 1487
What would be the strength of a united Lowlands by 1900? I am imagining that this Netherlands includes Indonesia and the Belgian Congo. What would its economic and military strength be?
Valdemar II
Banned
It would have around a fourth of Germanys population and a third of Frances, but it would be a major industrial power with a large Empire, so it would likely have a larger GNP per capita than those two, I would guess in ultimate term it would have a relative large and modern army and navy, big enough to be a a potential important ally and a dangerous enemy for both Entern and Axis (with minimum butterflies). It would likely lean toward Germany if not directly allied (France had a interest in the southen 2/3 of the country).
Valdemar II
Banned
It's not going to make as big differences, the important colony would be Indonesia, not Congo.
I agree that a Netherlands that includes Belgium would be a strong country. it might not be as strong as the major powers, as Germany, Britain and France, but still stronger than both the Netherlands or Belgium. It would have the coalfields of Belgium, so an earlier industrialization is likely and combined with the trading capabilities of western Netherlands (and Flanders) this Netherlands could become a very wealthy country.
I doubt the Netherlands would be interested in any African colonies. It already has Indonesia, Surinam and a coulple of Carabean Islands. It doesn't need a prestige projects in the African jungle, like the Belgian king got. Ghana is possible, the Netherlands did own various trading posts at the coast, but I believe (I am not certain though) that it wasn't a continuous territory. I believe various British trading posts lied scattered between the Dutch posts (and I believe there where some Danish ones too, although they might have been sold to the British). To form a reasonable colony the British and the Dutch must form some kind of deal. Either one sells its colonies to the other (most likely the Netherlands the the UK) or they trade their colonies so they have a nice continuous colony. I elieve it is more likely that the Netherlands will focus on Indonesia and the areas around it. With twice the population for the Netherlans I could see northern Borneo and eastern new Guinea becoming Dutch and maybe some closeby pacific islands.
The Netherlands and belgium remaining united could lead to some interesting shifts. For example I believe that the language barrier will ly more to the south than is now the case in Belgium. With a large Dutch majority in the country the status of Dutch will gain a lot more prestige, even if a large reason of the Dutch wealth lies in the coalrich and industrial south. I can see Brussels for example remaining a Dutch speaking city and bilingual cities that now lie in French speaking Belgium could end up in Dutch speaking part of the Netherlands. This could lead to an interesting situation in the twenthieth century that the Walloon Dutch would have the same problems as the Flemish Belgians have now, but with the same problem as the Walloon Belgian parts have now: the large unemployment because of the collapse of the heavy industries.
Another interesting thing, at least for people who have some knowledge about Dutch political history, is that the netherlands would be a Catholic majority country. OTL it was basicly 60% protestant and 40% catholic. If you include just Flanders it would become 40% protestant and 60% Catholic. Including Walonia it would have been an even larger majority. This could lead to very interesting situations if pilarization still occurs. I doubt that in this case the Dutch protestant church will split, like it did OTL. If they are a minority I doubt that will happen, they will want to remain together and form a stronger (political) front against the catholics (and socialist and liberals).
I personally see a united netherlands not as a very unlikely event. If the Belgian revolt had happened a bit later, it could have lead to a liberal revolution that would have had support in the northern parts of the netherlands too; leading to a more liberal Netherlands as happened in 1848 with the introduction of the new and more democratic constitution. this would basicly solve all problems the Belgians had with king Willem I. And that is not the only option, without the French involvement the Belgian revolution would have failed. With Prussian or Russion involvement the French could have been beaten. And remember the British didn't care one bit about the Belgians as long as France didn't got it. If the Dutch king and even more so the Dutch crownprince hadn't acted so stupidly the entire revolt could have been prevented.
A united Netherlands getting involved in a alternate world war I. Possible, but unlikely. What would they have to gain? French Flanders? East Frisia? I don't think they cared enough about it. Also i am not to certain they would automatically side with Germany. With a large (and rich and thus influential) Walloon population there would be a lot more sympathy for France. I think that neutrality would have been the preferred option. Although one party entering the Netherlands as happened OTL with Belgium is most certainly possible.
The interesting part is what would have happened to Luxembourg in such a situation. There would be less reason to try to sell it as it was tried in OTL. Luxembourg (including Belgian Luxembourg) is now conected to the rest of the Netherlands. It would still be in personal union with the netherlands, but it would be more intigrated into the Netherlands. What would happen to it during the German unification wars? Would Prussia decide to attack the netherlands and try to annex luxembourg, not unlike Denmark and Holstein? For those who suggest that prussia also might like to include Limburg, please remember that without a Luxembourg split, Limburg would not become part of the German confederation and there exist no good reason to annex it.
I doubt the Netherlands would be interested in any African colonies. It already has Indonesia, Surinam and a coulple of Carabean Islands. It doesn't need a prestige projects in the African jungle, like the Belgian king got. Ghana is possible, the Netherlands did own various trading posts at the coast, but I believe (I am not certain though) that it wasn't a continuous territory. I believe various British trading posts lied scattered between the Dutch posts (and I believe there where some Danish ones too, although they might have been sold to the British). To form a reasonable colony the British and the Dutch must form some kind of deal. Either one sells its colonies to the other (most likely the Netherlands the the UK) or they trade their colonies so they have a nice continuous colony. I elieve it is more likely that the Netherlands will focus on Indonesia and the areas around it. With twice the population for the Netherlans I could see northern Borneo and eastern new Guinea becoming Dutch and maybe some closeby pacific islands.
The Netherlands and belgium remaining united could lead to some interesting shifts. For example I believe that the language barrier will ly more to the south than is now the case in Belgium. With a large Dutch majority in the country the status of Dutch will gain a lot more prestige, even if a large reason of the Dutch wealth lies in the coalrich and industrial south. I can see Brussels for example remaining a Dutch speaking city and bilingual cities that now lie in French speaking Belgium could end up in Dutch speaking part of the Netherlands. This could lead to an interesting situation in the twenthieth century that the Walloon Dutch would have the same problems as the Flemish Belgians have now, but with the same problem as the Walloon Belgian parts have now: the large unemployment because of the collapse of the heavy industries.
Another interesting thing, at least for people who have some knowledge about Dutch political history, is that the netherlands would be a Catholic majority country. OTL it was basicly 60% protestant and 40% catholic. If you include just Flanders it would become 40% protestant and 60% Catholic. Including Walonia it would have been an even larger majority. This could lead to very interesting situations if pilarization still occurs. I doubt that in this case the Dutch protestant church will split, like it did OTL. If they are a minority I doubt that will happen, they will want to remain together and form a stronger (political) front against the catholics (and socialist and liberals).
I personally see a united netherlands not as a very unlikely event. If the Belgian revolt had happened a bit later, it could have lead to a liberal revolution that would have had support in the northern parts of the netherlands too; leading to a more liberal Netherlands as happened in 1848 with the introduction of the new and more democratic constitution. this would basicly solve all problems the Belgians had with king Willem I. And that is not the only option, without the French involvement the Belgian revolution would have failed. With Prussian or Russion involvement the French could have been beaten. And remember the British didn't care one bit about the Belgians as long as France didn't got it. If the Dutch king and even more so the Dutch crownprince hadn't acted so stupidly the entire revolt could have been prevented.
A united Netherlands getting involved in a alternate world war I. Possible, but unlikely. What would they have to gain? French Flanders? East Frisia? I don't think they cared enough about it. Also i am not to certain they would automatically side with Germany. With a large (and rich and thus influential) Walloon population there would be a lot more sympathy for France. I think that neutrality would have been the preferred option. Although one party entering the Netherlands as happened OTL with Belgium is most certainly possible.
The interesting part is what would have happened to Luxembourg in such a situation. There would be less reason to try to sell it as it was tried in OTL. Luxembourg (including Belgian Luxembourg) is now conected to the rest of the Netherlands. It would still be in personal union with the netherlands, but it would be more intigrated into the Netherlands. What would happen to it during the German unification wars? Would Prussia decide to attack the netherlands and try to annex luxembourg, not unlike Denmark and Holstein? For those who suggest that prussia also might like to include Limburg, please remember that without a Luxembourg split, Limburg would not become part of the German confederation and there exist no good reason to annex it.
Colonies in Ghana - Denmark, Britain and the Netherlands had forts lying like a string of pearls (til danskerne: ingen jokes!) along the coastline. The Danes got rid of theirs 1850. Sold to the British but they could as well go to the Dutch.
Having read Tallyrand by Duff Cooper it would probably just take a "No" from the British during the Belgian revolution to curb French intervention.
Luxembourg - salic law! If you don't have a Belgian secession then all of Luxembourg may go to the German Empire in 1890 (presuming Willem III still don't have male issue). Perhaps some kind of crisis or war with Netherlands participation may change this as to extricate Luxembourg of the German Confederation.
If any WWI goes ahead the German plan may still include a march through "Belgium" to get into France.
But it is an open question as what will happen to German and French planning in this situation, without a Belgium guaranteed by the Great Powers.
Quite an interesting situation. Would a German invasion trigger British bellingerence in this situation? Or a French?
Perhaps the British wish to avoid any Great Power possessing the Flanders coast would make for it to ally or guarantee Netherlands sovereignty? And thus enter the war in either part violate Netherlands territory!
Having read Tallyrand by Duff Cooper it would probably just take a "No" from the British during the Belgian revolution to curb French intervention.
Luxembourg - salic law! If you don't have a Belgian secession then all of Luxembourg may go to the German Empire in 1890 (presuming Willem III still don't have male issue). Perhaps some kind of crisis or war with Netherlands participation may change this as to extricate Luxembourg of the German Confederation.
If any WWI goes ahead the German plan may still include a march through "Belgium" to get into France.
But it is an open question as what will happen to German and French planning in this situation, without a Belgium guaranteed by the Great Powers.
Quite an interesting situation. Would a German invasion trigger British bellingerence in this situation? Or a French?
Perhaps the British wish to avoid any Great Power possessing the Flanders coast would make for it to ally or guarantee Netherlands sovereignty? And thus enter the war in either part violate Netherlands territory!
Willem III not having any male heirs could very easly be butterflied away. OTL He had three. Two of them lived until adulthood, but all of them died before they had any children.
A united Low Countries could possible field 16-20 divisions or so, plus a sizable navy. I would think at least two dreadnoughts and a smattering of light cruisers and perhaps a battlecruiser or two as potential cruiser-killers against the Japanese. Those kind of forces would be strong enough to actually tip the balance on the western front - certainly they would be large enough for the Germans to shelve a France first plan, dig in and plan to go east instead?
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Balance of Power, Balance of Power!!
A united Benelux would be an industrial powerhouse. However if Belgium never seceded I doubt they'd have Congo, but all the butterflies. I could see Beneluxia (what I would call the nation) being a player in the scramble for Africa, and probably having interests in China.
A united Benelux would be an industrial powerhouse. However if Belgium never seceded I doubt they'd have Congo, but all the butterflies. I could see Beneluxia (what I would call the nation) being a player in the scramble for Africa, and probably having interests in China.
I agree with just about everything you said ... except for this
Yes, Wallons are French speaking and yes, many of the richest and most influential Belgians were French speaking. But calling all the French speaking Belgians Walloon (both back then and in OTL) is quite a bit off the mark.
The average Walloon wasn't much better off then the avrage Fleming.
And they certainly wouldn't weigh on Dutch foreign relations. Also, those rich and powerfull French-speakers, were quite devided on the subject of France in OTL. Some loved they idea of 're'joining France and some saw France as 'meddling'.
In TTLs version of WWI, I suspect the Netherlands will go for neutrality and try to trade with both sides. As you said, there isn't much of anything they'd want to grab from their neighbours. (except maybe additional colonies ... but, would that be enough of a carrot for them to join either side???)
Still, HSF+Dutch navy vs Royal Navy ... it will make Jutland look like toddlers throwing pebbles into a pond.
Deleted member 1487
What would become of the Congo if Netherland (the name I am going to give the country) doesn't get it? Germany, France, or England?
I suspect that both France and the British Empire would have interests in parts of OTL Congo- Germany might as well, though I guess it depends partly upon how the United Netherlands affects German unification and post-unification history, and such.
So... all of them, in part, maybe?
Neroon
Banned
Assuming the following:
- WW1 still happens with more or less the same sides, with the Germans neither violating Dutch neutrality nor it joining any side on it's own volition.
- Britian still fighting on the Ententes side by making up some other excuse
There would then be the issue of the British long-distance blockade. A united neutral Netherlands with a navy the size as previously discussed in this thread, might very well tell Britian to shove it's concept of long-distace blockading and make it stick. So unless they chicken out after all or the British are stupid enough to push the Netherlands into joining the CP, it will become a go-between for Germany to trade with the rest of the world rending the blockade ineffective.
- WW1 still happens with more or less the same sides, with the Germans neither violating Dutch neutrality nor it joining any side on it's own volition.
- Britian still fighting on the Ententes side by making up some other excuse
There would then be the issue of the British long-distance blockade. A united neutral Netherlands with a navy the size as previously discussed in this thread, might very well tell Britian to shove it's concept of long-distace blockading and make it stick. So unless they chicken out after all or the British are stupid enough to push the Netherlands into joining the CP, it will become a go-between for Germany to trade with the rest of the world rending the blockade ineffective.
Deleted member 1487
Especially if the Dutch use their own shipping, that leaves them as a serious creditor of Germany. Maybe Netherland becomes the richest nation per capita in the world!
The Sandman
Banned
The big question I have is when the union occurs. I'd expect there'd be at least a few differences between a united Benelux that was born out of the original Revolt and a Netherlands that avoided the OTL Belgian Revolt of the 1830s.
If we want there to still be anything like the OTL First World War, it would probably have to be the latter; a Greater Netherlands in the 1600s would change so many things over the next few centuries that the OTL WWI would be hard to justify.
If we want there to still be anything like the OTL First World War, it would probably have to be the latter; a Greater Netherlands in the 1600s would change so many things over the next few centuries that the OTL WWI would be hard to justify.
No one mentioned Luxembourg. Would they join too??
During World War II, things might have been much different. Not so much as in WWI. What doomed the Low Countries during WWII was their prewar policy of being strictly neutral. If Holland and Belgium were together, they might have been more confident, built a large army, and coordinated with the French to fight against the Wehrmacht.
During World War II, things might have been much different. Not so much as in WWI. What doomed the Low Countries during WWII was their prewar policy of being strictly neutral. If Holland and Belgium were together, they might have been more confident, built a large army, and coordinated with the French to fight against the Wehrmacht.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Luxemburg was in a personal union with the Netherlands during the 1800s, perhaps that union in this TL would not be broken.
Indeed, if the man has some surviving sons.
Also, one could imagine a referendum in Luxemburg between Germany, the Netherlands, and independence. I have no idea what the population would prefer but it wouldn't be unreasonable to choose the neutral trading nation over the expansionist militarized nation or being in-between France and Germany without any back-up.