Space Shuttle Atlantis disaster, 1988

There is a story on
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts119/090327sts27/
which says that Atlantis lost over 700 heat shield tiles in exactly the same sort of accident which caused the Columbia disaster in 2003... Atlantis was lucky, the burn through on re-entry only damaged a non-essential strut.

But the POD is obvious.. what if the damage to the heat shield was somewhere slightly different, and the Atlanitis broke up on re-entry, like the Columbia?

This was only the second post-Challenger shuttle mission, and I guess that it would also be the last: who would trust the shuttle after two disasters in such quick succession?

Would Bush the First be willing/able to fund a replacement space programme?

The Shuttle-Mir programme would be a non-starter... At first glance, this would mean Mir being abandoned earlier due to less US funding in the 1990s, but would the US be prepared to buy space on Russian rockets and fund the Russian space programme that way? Would there be more or less enthusiasm/funding for the (Russian) Buran shuttle?

I suppose there is also a second POD in this: that the Atlantis lands successfully but that NASA wakes up to dangers of falling insulation on take off, and starts to look for a solution, averting Columbia. But changing the attitude and culture of the entire bureaucracy seems far less plausible than changing the path of a bit of foam!

we discussed this in another Thopic

STS-27 was DoD Mission
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-27

and had to land in Edwards AFB, California Dec. 6 , 1988
with damage on heatshield like Columbia, Atlantis breaking up over east pazific ocean

for point of view USAF and NASA
Space Shuttle Atlantis disappear without trace !

and this after second flight after Challenger Tragedy from 1986
This will terminate the Shuttle and Space Station Program by U.S. Politicians

Charles Berlitz will use the Atlantis Tragedy for a new Book
were he made anomalous phenomena responsible for Atlantis disappearing

Dr. Robert Ballard will Search for Atlantis on demand of NASA

and Future of U.S. Manned Space Program ?
The Atlantis Accident Investigation Board (AAIB)
will need years to investigate the disappearing,
until that time the Report is publish
we got George H. W. Bush as new President

OTL he support a new manned space initiative: "the Space Exploration Initiative"
but long-term cost of 500 billion dollars killt the Initative
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Exploration_Initiative

Here he has the problem to restart the U.S. manned space program !
OTL like his son George W. Bush announced 2004 the Crew Exploration Vehicle
after Columbia Tragedy from 2003

the questions is will the new Space Craft a Mini Shuttle or capsule ?

Coincidentally, this has been discussed recently on the NASA forums
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=16429.0

an interesting article with scary post-landing pictures
http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/recent.html
(scroll down a bit, to [FONT=VERDANA, ARIAL, HELVETICA, SANS-SERIF][SIZE=-1][FONT=VERDANA, ARIAL, HELVETICA, SANS-SERIF]-
4:40 PM, 3/27/09, Update: Former shuttle commander recalls wing damage, communications breakdown[/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT])

[FONT=VERDANA, ARIAL, HELVETICA, SANS-SERIF][SIZE=-1][FONT=VERDANA, ARIAL, HELVETICA, SANS-SERIF]Reflecting on what Hale agreed "was a real close call," Gibson said he believes NASA came close to losing the crew and along with it, the shuttle program. STS-27 was only the second flight after the Challenger disaster and unlike Columbia, the shuttle re-entered over the Pacific Ocean for a descent to Edwards. Had Atlantis been lost, most of the wreckage would have sunk and engineers might never have discovered the cause.[/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=VERDANA, ARIAL, HELVETICA, SANS-SERIF][SIZE=-1][FONT=VERDANA, ARIAL, HELVETICA, SANS-SERIF]"We had spent all that money and all that time rebuilding and revamping and we launched one successful mission, we lost the very next one," Gibson said. "I think the Congress would have said OK, that's the end guys, we just don't need to do this again. I think that just would have been the end of it." [/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT]

Click to expand...

Enough said !

This could actually turn out quite badly for NASA. With the costs of pursuing space exploration growing and without the political impetus provided by the Cold-War it's quite likely that manned space exploration goes the way of the Dodo.

The Atlantis incident of TTL might be enough to convince the US to retire the orbiter fleet. This means no Shuttle/Mir program and subsequently no ISS. With costs mounting, the US could decide to forego manned space exploration all together.

If however somehow funding does manage to get allocated to NASA and the space program they're probably going to go back to the KISS rule (keep it simple stupid). No more fancy-shmancy orbiters, rockets, command modules, 1960's sorta stuff that works and has been proven to work on a consistent basis.

Would the ISS go ahead if the US didn't have a working orbiter? I'm inclined to say no...just because the US would have to develop some kind of heavy lift booster to get potential modules up into space, due to the fact that they don't have an orbiter.

If there is an accident so quick after Challenger, what does that do for any proposal that uses parts of the STS - i.e Ares?

PMN1 said:

If there is an accident so quick after Challenger, what does that do for any proposal that uses parts of the STS - i.e Ares?

Click to expand...

Funnily enough, it might HELP such proposals.. the wheel doesn't have to be totally re-invented.

The design flaw & operational error that lead to Challenger can be fixed - so SRBs can be a part of a new launcher family - plus, with the crew vehicle set on top of the booster, you avoid issues with foam-strke.

Theoretically it's a win-win.. especially if it just involves a little tweaking of existing hardware.

let look wat they can make

Space Station Freedom
it was in planning phase as Shuttle Program was shut down.
with Bush Initative they change the Plans

Freedom moduls will launch by Titan 4
(Development start after Challenger maiden launch in 1989)
Leo Payload 21680 kg

the Module rendevous by new U.S. Manned Spacecraft and dock together
with others words Freedom look more like Soviet MIR space station !


to Titan 4 it can become new launcher for NASA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_IV
The Rocket used 7-segment solid rocket motors, developed for Titan 3M !
Titan 3M was for launch of USAF MOL station.
A Man-rated launch vehicle with Malfunction Detection System
initiated abort procedures during launch.
so why not make a Titan 4M ?

with aluminum-lithium tanks or 2 additional Booster increase payload.

how look new U.S. Manned Spacecraft?
mabye like this
HL-20 NASA Langley & Rockwell study for Crew Emergency Return Vehicle
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/hl20.htm

Michel Van said:

let look wat they can make

Space Station Freedom
it was in planning phase as Shuttle Program was shut down.
with Bush Initative they change the Plans

Freedom moduls will launch by Titan 4
(Development start after Challenger maiden launch in 1989)
Leo Payload 21680 kg

the Module rendevous by new U.S. Manned Spacecraft and dock together
with others words Freedom look more like Soviet MIR space station !


to Titan 4 it can become new launcher for NASA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_IV
The Rocket used 7-segment solid rocket motors, developed for Titan 3M !
Titan 3M was for launch of USAF MOL station.
A Man-rated launch vehicle with Malfunction Detection System
initiated abort procedures during launch.
so why not make a Titan 4M ?

with aluminum-lithium tanks or 2 additional Booster increase payload.

how look new U.S. Manned Spacecraft?
mabye like this
HL-20 NASA Langley & Rockwell study for Crew Emergency Return Vehicle
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/hl20.htm

Click to expand...

Hey Michel, I like your ideas !

You obviously need an "american FGB" to bring the modules from the Titan to the station. An automated tug.
I would suggest the good old Agena. It is already part of the Titan stack, and it is the most versatile upper stage ever.
The last of 365 (!) Agena was launched early 1987, so it's not too late.
The Agena masses 7000 kg with propellants, but only 700 kg empty.
You don't need these 6300 kg of propellants anymore, because our Agena doesn't carry the station modules to GEO !
So a "shortened Agena" (1500 kg ?) would be enough.
This Agena would also include a docking collar, and a navigation (GPS ?) rendez-vous (LIDAR) system.
All hail the AGENA SERVICE MODULE !

The ASM would be more than a tug.
One could mate a kind of MPLM - logistic module - to it, and launch that atop a Delta 7000,
Atlas IIAS or Titan IIS (a Titan II with Minuteman strapons). All three rockets have a payload in the 6000 - 8000 kg range, and all three booster are cheap. By the way, Ariane 44L had a payload of 7200 kg, too.


The HL-42 would be an obvious Shuttle replacement - in fact replacing a doomed Shuttle program was the HL-42 raison d'etre !
The HL-20 was a scaled-down, earlier variant of the HL-42.

Or maybe the Shuttle replacement would end like the OSP-CEV in 2002-2004. It started as an "orbital space plane" and ended with... the Orion capsule !

By the way, it may be possible to bring the Apollo CSM (!) back to life. Even as late as 2003 and the Columbia disaster !

http://klabs.org/richcontent/Reports/NASA_Reports/apollo_hw_crv_ctv.htm

the Agena is not a bad idea

but there a little problem
after 1987 Lockheed scrap the Agena production facilities
until Bush Initative, past 4 years

alternativ ?
Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering System (OMS)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_Maneuvering_System
is even better then Agena !
i think about Tug build from shuttle RCS and OMS parts
(note Tug is remote control)

I found a good concept for U.S. Space Station under Bush Initative
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/spas1982.htm
Picture
http://www.astronautix.com/graphics/s/ss8232.jpg

the module & OMS Tug launch by Titan IV
the Tug ceep the module in orbit
First module is a Power supply& dock for HL-20, second a Labo module.
at this point the Station is like ESA Man-Tended Free Flyer (MTFF)
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/colrmtff.htm

strange this look more NASA goes ESA Hermes

Note about Space Station Mir Module
the Mir Base Block hab his own OMS and RCS (refueld by Progress ferry)
the Four 37KS modules based on the TKS ferry spacecraft.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TKS_spacecraft
and had also they OMS and RCS