IOTL Brazil fought and lost a war with the United Provinces of the Rio de la Plata (later Argentina) over the territory of Banda Oriental, and in the end both countries needed to accept the independence of the territory as the country of Uruguay. I've already read here some ideas about Banda Oriental being integrated into Argentina, but how about the contrary? If Brazil had managed to defeat the Argentines and had annexed Uruguay as the Cisplatine Province, what could be the effects of it in Argentina?
A Brazilian Uruguay: effects in Argentina
- Thread starter Gonzaga
- Start date
Well, I'll have to think this through, but, for now, this is all what I can think of:
- Argentinian leaders, once the country stabilizes, might be worried about the fact that Brazil (and its troops) is so close to their capital. They might fear Brazilian proximity, and someone might even propose to move the capital away from Buenos Aires. It sounds a bit paranoic, but IOTL the military discouraged both the industrialization of areas bordering Brazil and the existance of bridges between Mesopoamia and the rest of the country, as that would have been the route "Brazilian invaders" would take if they attacked as. Taking that into consideration, it wouldn't be crazy if someone argues that the capital shouldn't be in Buenos Aires, for reasons conserning national security.
- Argentinians will have to find another place to go into exile went things get complicated. IOTL, whenever there was a dictatorship or an authoritarian government in Argentina, many flee to Uruguay. It happened during Rosas government (1835-1852), during Peron's, and during many others. It during the last dictatorship, as in those years there was a military regime in Uruguay too. This won't happen ITTL.
- Wealthy Argentinians will have to find a different country in which to put the money they don't want to declare to the government's tax collectors.
- Argentinian leaders, once the country stabilizes, might be worried about the fact that Brazil (and its troops) is so close to their capital. They might fear Brazilian proximity, and someone might even propose to move the capital away from Buenos Aires. It sounds a bit paranoic, but IOTL the military discouraged both the industrialization of areas bordering Brazil and the existance of bridges between Mesopoamia and the rest of the country, as that would have been the route "Brazilian invaders" would take if they attacked as. Taking that into consideration, it wouldn't be crazy if someone argues that the capital shouldn't be in Buenos Aires, for reasons conserning national security.
- Argentinians will have to find another place to go into exile went things get complicated. IOTL, whenever there was a dictatorship or an authoritarian government in Argentina, many flee to Uruguay. It happened during Rosas government (1835-1852), during Peron's, and during many others. It during the last dictatorship, as in those years there was a military regime in Uruguay too. This won't happen ITTL.
- Wealthy Argentinians will have to find a different country in which to put the money they don't want to declare to the government's tax collectors.
Maybe Argentines would transfer their capital to Cordoba because if they stay in Buenos Aires as their capital, it would be a security threat to Argentina since Uruguay is in the Brazil's hand. A war between Argentina and Brazil could transform into a regional war.
Well, we surely couldn't do it, since the mouth of the Rio de La Plata would be considered international waters, and the European powers would want to inforce it too. However, I wonder how would it affect the navigation on the Paraná and Paraguay rivers. Could Argentina close these rivers to Brazilian ships, as Brazil needed them as a connection to the province of Mato Grosso?
Looking at the modern map of the River Platt Water Basin we can see that the province of Missiones and Corrientes is located between the Parana river and Uruguay river. Brazil would probably like to control this area corridor. Also, they would have probably liked to control the right bank of the Paraguay river which starts where the Parana turns off to the right. This would have started a war between Brazil and Paraguay. And Argentina would have probably joined in on Paraguays side unless they decided to split Paraguay with Brazil and have the Parana and Paraguay river has a border. And remember in the 1800's the Northern Paraguayan Chaco was considered by Bolivia to be part of there nation.
While it would make sense strategically, Brazil never claimed those lands, and wouldn't have the power to conquer them. One thing is try to conquer an almost unpopulated Banda Oriental, other thing is to conquer the Mesopotamia and Paraguay.
Of course, the Argentines might not feel it, as the loss of the Banda Oriental might create a concern about those lands. Also, could Argentina try to reintegrate Paraguay, as a compensation for the loss of Uruguay?
^ I would think the Paraguayans could have held there own against Argentina.
And if Brazil had supported Paraguays take over of the Argentine Mesopotamia. With Brazilian support they might have been able to accomplish it. Also, since Paraguay was a so called Buffer State the Argentinians would in time accept the Paraguayan control of Mesopotamia. Brazils control over that area they probably would be slow to accept.
And if Brazil had supported Paraguays take over of the Argentine Mesopotamia. With Brazilian support they might have been able to accomplish it. Also, since Paraguay was a so called Buffer State the Argentinians would in time accept the Paraguayan control of Mesopotamia. Brazils control over that area they probably would be slow to accept.
The River Plate is not currently considered international waters, although the issue would be different in the 18th century. Whether Argentina would allow passage through the Parana river is an open question. A deal might be agreed but the 19th century (and most of the 20th) was not an age of cooperation, so the likely answer is no - unless a deal is done along the same lines of OTL: Brazilian forces assist a local caudillo to defeat a more powerful enemy in exchange for free navigation.
Argentineans will still flee to Montevideo in times of opression, it's simply closer for those in Buenos Aires. The issue is that going hostile with OTL Uruguay is nowhere as dangerous as going hostile with Brazil so I guess it's either live with it or war. For the same token the Brazilian government might not want to tolerate political plots along the exiles and might threaten to hand them over if they don't quit all political activity, which would have butterflies of their own. There will be more of tension, anxiety and sabre rattlign between both countries, that's for sure and I even image some sort of possible ATL 1950s with both countries trying to develop rocket artillery to hit each other across the River Plate.
But there are two main butteflies. The first one is how Brazil keeps OTL Uruguay. Is Argentina involved in the war or not? How does affect Rivadavia's government? Is there the need for a unitarian uprising, or Buenos Aires goes to war with the provinces yet again? Butteflies, butterflies.
The other one is that the OTL War of the Triple Alliance is completly butterflied away. That doesn't mean that Argentina and Brazil might not ally against Paraguay IITL, but any ATL war might work in different ways. Argentina goes expantionistic and jingoistic and tries to take Paraguay on her own, Brazil sides with Paraguay in such a war, Argentina and Brazil goes to war (perhaps again) while Paraguay watches, Argentina gets Paraguayan help in such a war in exchange for free passage through the Parana, etc. Or there is no war, at least not involving Paraguay. A Paraguay untouched by war and developing peacefully along the 19th century would have major butterflies in South America. How strong is possible impossible to guess as it's hard to separate what's myth and what's reality about Paraguay in the 1860s
Argentineans will still flee to Montevideo in times of opression, it's simply closer for those in Buenos Aires. The issue is that going hostile with OTL Uruguay is nowhere as dangerous as going hostile with Brazil so I guess it's either live with it or war. For the same token the Brazilian government might not want to tolerate political plots along the exiles and might threaten to hand them over if they don't quit all political activity, which would have butterflies of their own. There will be more of tension, anxiety and sabre rattlign between both countries, that's for sure and I even image some sort of possible ATL 1950s with both countries trying to develop rocket artillery to hit each other across the River Plate.
But there are two main butteflies. The first one is how Brazil keeps OTL Uruguay. Is Argentina involved in the war or not? How does affect Rivadavia's government? Is there the need for a unitarian uprising, or Buenos Aires goes to war with the provinces yet again? Butteflies, butterflies.
The other one is that the OTL War of the Triple Alliance is completly butterflied away. That doesn't mean that Argentina and Brazil might not ally against Paraguay IITL, but any ATL war might work in different ways. Argentina goes expantionistic and jingoistic and tries to take Paraguay on her own, Brazil sides with Paraguay in such a war, Argentina and Brazil goes to war (perhaps again) while Paraguay watches, Argentina gets Paraguayan help in such a war in exchange for free passage through the Parana, etc. Or there is no war, at least not involving Paraguay. A Paraguay untouched by war and developing peacefully along the 19th century would have major butterflies in South America. How strong is possible impossible to guess as it's hard to separate what's myth and what's reality about Paraguay in the 1860s
Personally I think that Brazil had no conditions of keeping Uruguay after the Brazilian independence. Firstly due to the economical crisis created by the separation with Portugal (Brazil was completely broken during the 1820's). Also, and locally most importantly in the case of Cisplatina, was the division of the local Portuguese forces between those loyal to Lisbon and those loyal to Pedro I.
Until 1822 General Lecor, the governor of Cisplatina, had the support of the elite of Montevideo (and some other cities) basically because he managed to ensure a peaceful period there. Before that, from 1811 to 1817 the city was occupied by the Spanish, the Porteños, the Artiguistas and finally by the Portuguese. Lecor convinced the the elite of Montevideo that only the Portuguese forces could keep the peace. Also, he distributed condecorations and lands among the supporters of Portugal, and made his officers marry the daughters of important landowners (even he married one, Rosa de Herrera y Basavilbaso). When the Cisplatine Congress of 1821 happened, the delegates decided for the incorporation of the territory to the Portuguese monarchy as an authonomous state. It means that the Cisplatine would have an administration separated from Brazil, sending their own representatives to the Courts of Lisbon, but under the same king.
When the independence happened the garrison of Montevideo remained loyal to Lisbon, and Lecor, who supported Pedro I, needed to flee to Canelones. From there he organized a siege against the city, reconquering it later. However, those events showed to the people of Banda Oriental that the Portuguese were not so effective to keep the peace in the territory. Also, it caused the departure of the Portuguese troops back to Europe, leaving a smaller occupation army, and it started the reaction against them.
The obvious POD for a Brazilian Uruguay would be make the garrison of Montevideo support Pedro I instead of Lisbon. However, even if it happens Brazil would still deal with a financial crisis due to the independence that might ruin the Brazilian policy in the Plata. So other option would be to make John VI never going back to Lisbon, remaining in Brazil with the Portuguese Treasury. But that creates other problem, as John VI was actually contrary to the annexation of Banda Oriental. He wanted the territory given back to Spain, as a way to please Ferdinand VII, or at least independent as a buffer state between Brazil and Argentina.
maverick
Banned
Eh, what south american members?
Its only Gonzaga, Juan Manuel, Admiral Brown and Me...I don't know about Metro...and Joseph Solis writes threads about Argentina, but he's either an idiot or one of those fanboys you hate so much, but replace Japan with Argentina...
Actually, we're a bit short these days...Diego hasn't posted in a few days, Seleucus just vanished from the face of the earth and Minifidel, I don't know, maybe he has school...
I would say "Don't forget meeee!" but I'm not really a South American member, I'm just learning.
My right hand's just not fast enough yet! They tell me it's all in the wrist.
maverick
Banned
You're with Capibara as the central american members...the only group smaller than the gauchos
That's by the way the official name of the South american lobby, thanks to the geographical luck of having Roberto and Gonzaga in the Gaucho region*...*Southern brazil, parts of argentina and uruguay
You're with Capibara as the central american members...the only group smaller than the gauchos
*Southern brazil, parts of argentina and uruguay
But if I'm also a Central American member, wouldn't that mean I'd be one of the best at coups-per-day?
(Except for Floid and Marius, of course.)Also, why don't we have any members from elsewhere in Latin America?
maverick
Banned
But if I'm also a Central American member, wouldn't that mean I'd be one of the best at coups-per-day?
Also, why don't we have any members from elsewhere in Latin America?
Well, so far is one mexican, one honduran living in Uruguay, several brazilians of which one is active and 5 Argentineans...
And no, being a central american makes you better at having civil wars, not coups
There's also Nandalf (Brazil). And minifidel posted recently in the "Falkland War 2" thread, in the future history sub-forum.
No that we are talking about this, the question I have is, do any of the Argentinian members know each other from outside this forum??? Or did all of us enter here independently??? I personaly don't know any of the other Argentinians.