Russian victory in Battle of Mukden

[DoktorDespot]

What if the Russians had not been encircled at the Battle of Mukden during the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905, but had instead won a decisive victory? Would the Russians have won the war, and if so how would that have effected World War 1, Russian Revolution etc....

[CanadianGoose]

Originally Posted by DoktorDespot

Would the Russians have won the war, and if so how would that have effected World War 1, Russian Revolution etc....

Win? Interesting question. Japan was at breaking point but Russians did not know it. Japanese committed to Mukden everything they could and, wouldn't it be for Kuropatkin's idiocy, it came to naught. So, even with OTL Tsushima following, the war would effectively be in stalemate. Taking into account that it wasn't as much Japanese win as Russian loss as far as land war is concerned (naval part of the war has no rational explanation whatsoever; it did look like coordinated effort of bunch of Russophobic ASBs, there were no Japanese action, no matter how half-assed and idiotic, which failed to deliver significant damage to Russians through combination of most outrageous co-incidences), there were good chances for Russia to sign more or less status quo ante bellum peace (keeping Manchuria and Southern Sakhalin, may be even getting Southern Kurils as reparations, although that's pushing it).

I would say that victory (or stalemate) in RJW would negatively affect Russian preparedness for WWI (army went on to very serious soul searching in 1908-1914), but somewhat diminishes chances of revolution.