Colin Powell: President of US, 1996

[AltSptHst]

I was reading this blog that a guy near Kansas City has, and, last year, he was talking about past elections. He was saying something about Colin Powell and him running for President in 1996 against Clinton and how he wished he would have.

My questions to this board:

1. What kind of president would Powell have made?
2. If he was elected for a second term in 00, how might he have handled 9/11?

[Corbell Mark IV]

Moderate Republican with a divided Congress (assuming a Clinton Loss means midterm gains not made, but not assuming a blowout )

He inherents a good economy. No reason to assume that changes.

If he gets a Republican Congress that ends the "gridlock" of the two branches, recent history suggests higher spending.

Less impact of Clinton sex scandals, probably meaning a less discredited NOW/feminist movement. Perhaps that butterflies away Gov. Arnold (because of his minor sex scandals?)

As a former general and a moderate Republican of the GH Bush school might scale back on the foriegn entanglements, since the Cold War is over. But how to respond to Osama's attacks when they happen anyway?

But even if he did pickup Osama would that end the 9-11? I find it likely that Osama has made arrangements that his resources would be at the disposal of Al-quida if something happens to him.

Oh, and he get reelected. Good economy, no big scandals, moderate as hell might lead to primary fight but that never works out, being black gets him a little space form the press (not Obama space of course, but some).

If 9-11 or something of that scale happens on his second term, probably goes for a larger scale, more conventail invasion of Afganistan.

No Iraqi war.

Who's VP?

His VP gets to run, while fighting still going on in Afganistan? COuld that be a win? We're talking lot of republinca rule broken only by one term of Clinton.

Who would his VP be? Who would he be running against?

[Jon0815]

Originally Posted by Corbell Mark IV

As a former general and a moderate Republican of the GH Bush school might scale back on the foriegn entanglements, since the Cold War is over.

So, probably no Kosovo War.

Who would his VP be?

Someone to his right. Given Powell's history with the Bush family, maybe Gov GW Bush of Texas?

Who would he be running against?

Maybe Hillary, since in this ATL there is no incumbent in 2004, and the GOP has been in power 8 years (not sure if she pledged to serve out her full Senate term when she was elected in 2000).

[Jon0815]

President Powell might get to make a single SCOTUS appointment. It's speculated that in OTL, O'Connor didn't retire until Bush's second term because of the Bush v. Gore controversy.

[Lord Grattan]

Originally Posted by Jon0815

So, probably no Kosovo War.

Someone to his right. Given Powell's history with the Bush family, maybe Gov GW Bush of Texas?

Maybe Hillary, since in this ATL there is no incumbent in 2004, and the GOP has been in power 8 years (not sure if she pledged to serve out her full Senate term when she was elected in 2000).

Why no Kosovo war?

In a TL where Bill Clinton loses in 1996 Hillary Clinton is probably not going to be elected to the US Senate from New York in 2000. Now she may however run for Senate in 1998, 2002 (Arkansas) or 2004 (Illinois). Perhaps Bill could also.

[Jon0815]

Originally Posted by Lord Grattan

Why no Kosovo war?

As a limited war in pursuit of no major US strategic interest, Kosovo was in violation of the "Powell Doctrine".

And intervening in Kosovo was not popular among Republicans: In OTL, 38 of the 55 Senate republicans voted against the airstikes before they began.

In a TL where Bill Clinton loses in 1996 Hillary Clinton is probably not going to be elected to the US Senate from New York in 2000. Now she may however run for Senate in 1998, 2002 (Arkansas) or 2004 (Illinois). Perhaps Bill could also.

That's true, in this ATL it might be more likely that she would run for the Arkansas seat in 1998. However, she might decide to pass up that opportunity, because to win in Arkansas, she wouldn't be able to run as a liberal. And then Rangel might still encourage her to run for the NY seat when it opened up.