USA fights only Japan

[Blue Max]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

The US inevitably cuts Lend Lease sharply until the situation in the Pacific turns around.

In January 1943 Stalin accepts the terms he considered in OTL until FDR and Churchill announced the policy of unconditional surrender, surrendering the Baltic States, Belarus and the western half of Ukraine plus the Finnish border territory.

Churchill falls from power by the middle of 1943 and the nearly destitute UK sues for peace. In OTL the British didn't end WWII rationing until 1951, imagine how they'll do with the USSR out of the war and the US never in it.

If the British are lucky they manage to drive the Axis from North Africa and seize Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica.

The US crushes Japan by the beginning of 1945 with 10 million+ Japanese dead by famine in the final year of the war. Troop levels mean nothing, it is all about logistics in the Pacific War(and in general).

Western Europe economically shattered, Hitler rules Europe, Stalin is much more bitter and arming even more than OTL after 1945...oh, what a lovely world it will be.

Grimm, the advantages in this scenario are twofold:

1. The Soviet Union and Nazi Germany are going to be pit squarely against each other.

2. China, SE Asia and India are going to squarely in the Allied Camp in this situation.

Does Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union on the brink of MAD mitigate the cold war? For them, no, for the USA and new friends in the Pacific, probably. The Soviet Union will not dare to antagonize the United States with a Cuban Missile situation; Germany will not attempt to support Justicalist Argentina either.

The UK probably gets rebuilt with US dollars. But I would have to agree, the UK is getting horribly screwed. I would imagine millions emigrating to Canada and the United States; among the emigrants will surely be Winston Churchill.

I would bet on Germany and the Soviets to settle a rematch with nuclear ordinance.

[Slamet]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

The US inevitably cuts Lend Lease sharply until the situation in the Pacific turns around.

In OTL the British didn't end WWII rationing until 1951, imagine how they'll do with the USSR out of the war and the US never in it.

But won't the US ITTL resume Lend-Lease for Britain, once the Pacific war has turned (IMHO ITTL around 1942)? Surely this Lend-Lease would bolster morale.

And IMO the US would continue the Manhattan Project, seeing that Germany is going to become a nuclear power, and that the USSR has at least stolen Nazi documents. And the influx of scientists from Britain might help.

[DuQuense]

Decembre 7th 1941
Pearl Harbor

Decembre 9
Germany does not DoW the US Nor do any of Germany's Allies.

decembre 10
Secretary Hull, General Marshal and Admiral King meet in the oval Office, The Consensus is that a request for a DoW on Germany would be defeated in Congress.
They also discuss moving some of the Army's 37 Divisions.

Decembre 11th
In a Telefone conference with Churchill FDR is informed of the Bad News, However FDR assures Churchill that the LL Shipments will not be Stopped but will be Increased.

Decembre 12th
In a Meeting with the German Ambassador FDR makes in very clear that any German Attack on the American Conveys west of Iceland would be considered an Act of War.

January 1942
The first American Troops arrive in Australia, onroute to support the Austrialian forces in New Guinea.

March 1942
British cancel plans to deploy Indian troops in SE Asia, and instead earmark them for NAfrica, and Itailian EAfrica.

April, May, June, July, August, American troops continue to Build up in New Guinea and in Northern Australia.

Septembre
Operation Torch
10 Divisions of Infantry and Artillery come ashore in southern east Java. They begin a drive north and west.

Novembre
2 Divisions of American and Australian Troops invade Celbus.
US Marines begin Island Hopping Campaign in Japanese Micronesia.

Decembre
there are 15 divisions on Java, and the drive is reaching the northern west end of the Island.

March 1943
Refreshed and resupplied the US invades Sumatra in the South with 10 divisions from Java.



April
New landing Craft, allows the US to land another 5 divisions along the Central Sumatra Coast

July
Operating from Bases in Central Sumatra, the USAAF begins pounding Japanese positions in Malaysia.

August
US Forces under General Slim enter Burma.

Octobre
US forces Invade Malaysia, Liberate Singapore.

Novembre
US Invades Borneo.
Britain Captures Tunisia, from the Germans.

March 1944
US invades Hanan, Philippines.
Thailand Joins the Allies.

May
US troops enter Vietnam from Hanan, and begin fighting their way south.
Britain and Free French invade Greece. [Greek and Italian Islands]

July first B 29's begin bombing Japan from bases in the Phillipines


August
3rd Army under General Patton Liberates Hong Kong. [Land War in Asia]
British and Free French Capture Sardinia, Liberate Corsica.

Septembre
British Bombers begin attacking Italian forces from Bases on Sardinia, Restricting north south movement.
US launches Operation North Star, Taking the Karil Islands.

Octobre
US B-29 begin bombing from Karil Island bases,
Britain invades Sicily.

Novembre
Italy Surrenders, attempts to Join Allies, Germany invades Italy.


March 1945
Russia enters Poland, Hungary.
Britain, Free French Invade Vichy France along the Med. 40 % of the British troops are from India. another 20% from the Commonwealth and Empire.

US launches Operation Olympus with 25 divisions invading Kyusho.

April
US Troops under General Patton Cross the Great Wall and Enter Manchuria, pursuing retreating Japanese forces.

May
With Daily 1000 Plane raids hitting increasingly smaller Cities and towns as that is all that is left, The Emperor Orders a Surrender.

At this point the US has over 6 million men in Uniform.

British French Forces reach the Rhine.

June
Russian troops enter Berlin.

July 1945
Last German Forces surrender, Russia Occupies Germany.

In trying to not be to Optimistic, I may have gone to far Pessimistic. I notice the War ends at [almost] the same time as it did OTL.
However It is possible that difficulties in Moving Men and supplies around Asia/Pacific, would slow the war, a lot more than moving them to Britain and then around Europe.

[Dan Reilly The Great]

I'm going to disagree with the notion that operation olympic gets carried out, I think that the US will decide to let the emperor rot on the home island until a nuke is ready or a surrender is issued, as long as the bomb is considered as a possibility then no sane military commander is going to willingly undertake such a costly operation unless absolutely necissary. Also there has been some evidence to suggest that the Japanese were contemplating surrender even before hiroshima and nagasaki turned into radioactive wastelands.

As for lend lease, I doubt that it will cease or even lessen in this TL, as a matter of fact it will probably increase, at least to the British, since the US won't be using resources to prepare to slug it out with the Germans, there will be more available to send elsewhere.

Manpower will also be not much different, since the Germans will still be keeping a large reserve force in the west to keep up the threat of sealion so the British don't get too daring abroad. However as things start to get more desperate on the Eastern front Hitler may simply decide to strip his western garrisons in order to bolster the Eastern Front, a few extra armored divisions at Kursk might be a difference maker, but this is hard to say as butterflies may get rid of the infamous tank battle alltogether.

The main difference we will see is in air power, since the British wont be getting help from thousands of aircraft and airmen from the USAAF, as such they will have a hell of a time wiping the Luftwaffe from the skies over europe. also as a result of this the German homefront wont be suffering nearly as much as in otl so German production levels will be higher, maybe a higher proportion of Tiger and panther tanks along the Eastern front.

All in all, you will see Japan defeated no matter what, and probably no later than in OTL since nukes will do it no matter what. Hitler will stand a better chance of fighting the Russians to a standstill although the chances of actually beating them outright are still just as astrinomical as they were in OTL. The British will probably not be as successful as in OTL, and the chances of seeing British troops on continental Europe are considerably lower, especially since Monty was not as good a general as Rommel was, so without american aid, he probably wouldn't have pushed the Axis forces off of africa, at least not outright, Hitler might have been willing to concede Africa if things in Russia turned too grim though.

In the end you have two choices, one is a bi-polar cold war with Stalin in charge of most of the continent, or you have a tri-polar one with Hitler controlling most of Europe and parts of the Ukraine, and the Russians angrily staring at the Germans over a demilitarized zone. The red europe situation probably ends the cold war about the same time as in OTL, I don't see how this will change the way the Soviet system runs their country into the ground after 50 years so they will still go bankrupt by the end of the century, maybe even earlier since administering to a larger empire is more costly. With a three way cold war things get interesting, with mainly the Germans and Russians being really pissed at each other and continuing a massive arms race which will probably bankrupt them both by the 70's if things dont go hot before then, of course this assumes that Germany doesn't split up into a civil war after the death of Hitler. The US will probably maintain a nuclear monoply for longer however since the Russians do not get access to captured German scientists after the war, also even if the Russians do get nukes as per OTL they will be restricted to using bombers to deliver them for longer because again of no German scientists, also they won't be able to appropriate eastern european infrastructure for their own uses as per OTL. The Germans will probably not develope nukes for a long time, since their scientists were working about the problem from an ass backward way anyways. You'll probably see the Russians and Germans arming up big time but being left behind technologically and economically by the rest of the world. China may very well go nationalist since the Russians in all liklehood will cut off most support for Mao in favor of arming up to compete with Germany. The US gets the best shake in this deal as they get the economic boost from fighting a major war, they don't have to build up forces in Europe, also their military spending will be much less since all they have to do is play the Russians and Germans against each other to stay out of trouble themselves. There will probably not be a space race, if china goes nationalist then there most likely not be a war in vietnam or korea. The US becomes the foremost superpower by the end of the century through one of three ways:

1. Russia and Germany bankrupt themselves in the armsrace and both break up after a few decades, maybe as early as the 70's.'

2. Russia and Germany go nuclear and wipe each other out, turning northern Eurasia and mainland Europe into a nuclear wasteland, which pretty much eliminates the competition.

3. Both parties don't go to war and don't break up, they just stay militarized and destitute with an out of date technology base and ass backward social system.

[Hades]

didnt newt gingrich write a book about this scenario?

[Dan Reilly The Great]

didnt newt gingrich write a book about this scenario?

yeah but it was a bad book that seemed like it was written with the same understanding of history as a 12 year old has, in fact as I recall the book treats the Eastern front almost as an afterthought.

[thevaliant]

World War II ends as follows:

Japan defeated in late 1944. May not be able to retain Emperor.
Germany defeated in 1946 - Soviet Union gets everything it got OTL, plus all of Germany, Denmark, Greece, Norway, Austria. Reckon France, low countries and maybe Italy stay democratic due to British.

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by Blue Max

The Chinese Civil War is going to immediately demand further US involvement--but I would expect Chiang to win it.

IMHO, in almost any scenario in which Japan is defeated while the USSR is still slugging it out with Germany, the Chinese Nationalists will defeat the Communists. The Communists won OTL's civil war because the Soviet occupation of Manchuria, itself a result of Japan still being at war after Germany had surrendered, enabled them to entrench themselves in the region. But if the Americans force a Japanese surrender while the USSR is focusing its strength on the European front, Jiang will have free rein to mop up the various Communist strongholds, if necessary with US assistance.

Needless to say, that also butterflies away the DPRK.

[Hades]

wouldnt Germany have the bomb by this stage?

US neutrality in Europe may set the stage for a Fatherland scenario.

[Thucydides]

Originally Posted by Avalon1

wouldnt Germany have the bomb by this stage?

US neutrality in Europe may set the stage for a Fatherland scenario.

Don't say the F-Word!

[Tuhachevskey]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

The US inevitably cuts Lend Lease sharply until the situation in the Pacific turns around.

In January 1943 Stalin accepts the terms he considered in OTL until FDR and Churchill announced the policy of unconditional surrender, surrendering the Baltic States, Belarus and the western half of Ukraine plus the Finnish border territory.

Churchill falls from power by the middle of 1943 and the nearly destitute UK sues for peace. In OTL the British didn't end WWII rationing until 1951, imagine how they'll do with the USSR out of the war and the US never in it.

If the British are lucky they manage to drive the Axis from North Africa and seize Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica.

The US crushes Japan by the beginning of 1945 with 10 million+ Japanese dead by famine in the final year of the war. Troop levels mean nothing, it is all about logistics in the Pacific War(and in general).

Western Europe economically shattered, Hitler rules Europe, Stalin is much more bitter and arming even more than OTL after 1945...oh, what a lovely world it will be.

USSR would feel that there is no lend-lease in 1943(In 1941-42 there wasnt a lot of len-lease help)

[Tuhachevskey]

Mai 1946-"meeting at the seine"

[bernard patton]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

In OTL the British didn't end WWII rationing until 1951, imagine how they'll do with the USSR out of the war and the US never in it.

That was because Britain had to feed the areas of Europe under it's control, aswell as hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops in Burma

[Grimm Reaper]

Take away the motor transport the US provided and you take away the Soviet victory at Stalingrad. Give Hitler free us of the forces otherwise needed against the Anglo-Americans and as garrisons in case the Anglo-Americans land and...well, it's historical fact that Stalin was negotiating a settlement as late as January 1943 and that was with the US as an ally and Lend Lease on a much larger scale so the likelihood of his not negotiating in a much worse situation appears pretty much nil.

Assuming Hitler deals. Big if.


bernard, it's because the British economy was shot and where did you get this idea that the British were holding hundreds of thousands of Japanese POWs during the Korean War?

[A Random Person]

SEALION... dum dum dum

[Dan Reilly The Great]

SEALION... dum dum dum

exactly how does no US involvement in Europe cause a massive Kreigsmarine to materialize, or make the Royal Navy disappear?

[Blue Max]

Originally Posted by Dan Reilly The Great

exactly how does no US involvement in Europe cause a massive Kreigsmarine to materialize, or make the Royal Navy disappear?

Given a peace deal between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany and the UK holding out, Germany is going to go psycho building a navy for Sealion.

Germany does have the Industrial Advantage to outbuild Britain in this scenario, and a mid 50s to 1960 invasion would probably be one of the few non-ASB scenarios where this could plausibly happen. That said, I think German Forces on the Thames would trigger a US intervention. Think of the Soviet valuation of Cuba--and then make Cuba a major economic player with many more people. Germany can attempt a plausible Sealion--but this means War with the United States.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Blue Max

Given a peace deal between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany and the UK holding out, Germany is going to go psycho building a navy for Sealion.

Given a peace deal, due to mutual exhaustion, between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia I can see Britain forced to make peace but maintain its independence. Under those conditions there will be a significant change in German naval spending, in a negative direction. Even without Adoph in command the Germans will want armour and a/c.

Steve

[bernard patton]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

bernard, it's because the British economy was shot and where did you get this idea that the British were holding hundreds of thousands of Japanese POWs during the Korean War?

I never said that Britain held Japanese prisoners during the Korean War, but they did hold them for a long time after the war finished, and they had to feed some ten million people in their zone of Germany, aswell reconstruct the UK, and had to start repaying lend-lease, which would all delay the end of rationing. And the UK economy was still one of the largest in the world.

[Tuhachevskey]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

Take away the motor transport the US provided and you take away the Soviet victory at Stalingrad. Give Hitler free us of the forces otherwise needed against the Anglo-Americans and as garrisons in case the Anglo-Americans land and...well, it's historical fact that Stalin was negotiating a settlement as late as January 1943 and that was with the US as an ally and Lend Lease on a much larger scale so the likelihood of his not negotiating in a much worse situation appears pretty much nil.

IN 1942 lenlease was interrupted, yeah...