AH Challenge: Europe defeats the Mongols

Your challenge, should you accept it, is to have the Mongols launch a large scale invasion of Europe. However, the Europeans, united or not, defeat them and push them back into Russia. This is all achieved in a relatively quick time-scale, no more than 30 years. The Mongol Empire is also the same one as OTL, although Europe will almost certainly be quite different.

Of course the necessary POD for such an occurrence will be very complex, so I won't put any restrictions to the POD.

What can you come up with?

The effects of this are massive! No German minorities in the east (on a large scale), Hungarian population survives and probably comes to dominate the Balkans, Mongolian power threatened as they no longer seem indomitable. Poland becomes the most powerful nation in the Slavic world and becomes a more powerful Russia as they unite the East (for a while) and possibly expand into Germany. Czechs might stay part of Poland. I could go on forever.

Earlier discovery of the New World brings the potatoe to Europe much earlier. The producivity of northern European agriculture is signifcantly improved, leading to more advanced states and military technology/organisation. The pastoralist Mongols just can't compete economically.

Alratan said:

Earlier discovery of the New World brings the potatoe to Europe much earlier. The producivity of northern European agriculture is signifcantly improved, leading to more advanced states and military technology/organisation. The pastoralist Mongols just can't compete economically.

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Why would this happen though? There would be few changes from OTL, as the OP said, so I don't see how this would lead to an earlier discovery of the Americas?

It will completely depend on Mongol unity. The only way to defeat the Mongols in the 1200s is to have them be unable to concentrate armies and manpower. A few assassinations in Karakorum may do the trick.

As for effects, it depends on what you mean by "Russia". Does that include Halich? Does that include Novgorod? Does that include Vladimir-Suzdal?

As for effects, it depends on what you mean by "Russia". Does that include Halich? Does that include Novgorod? Does that include Vladimir-Suzdal?

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The Mongols OTL Russian territories.

To give you guys an idea of the extent of the Mongol invasion, let us say they manage to crush Poland and Hungary and they reach the Adriatic through Croatia and Dalmatia. They are not stopped until they reach Dresden in the north and Venice in the south.

How could Europe feasibly stop the Mongols at the Oder and Italy? What effects are evident if Eastern Europe is ravaged by the Mongols, only to be eventually liberated?

Rekjavik said:

The Mongols OTL Russian territories.

To give you guys an idea of the extent of the Mongol invasion, let us say they manage to crush Poland and Hungary and they reach the Adriatic through Croatia and Dalmatia. They are not stopped until they reach Dresden in the north and Venice in the south.

How could Europe feasibly stop the Mongols at the Oder and Italy? What effects are evident if Eastern Europe is ravaged by the Mongols, only to be eventually liberated?

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To be honest, if the Mongols get that far, there isnt much in continental Europe that can turn them back.

The Europeans probably cannot stop the Mongols in a field engagement. The fighting styles in Europe varied, but none of those which will immediatly face the mongols fills me with confidence at their chances. European heavy cavalry can certainly be defeated in detail, as seen in OTL at Legnica. Mongol armies had better coordination, disipline, and flexibility than most of their opponents would. While this is not enough, it should also be remembered that Subotai is the man who is actually going to be commanding the invasion, and Batu Khan and his subbordinates were a generally talented lot. Finally, where the Mongols did engage European (Polish, Hungarian, and German) armies in OTL, they fared rather well (Legnica, Sajo River, Chmielnik).

Now, if the Europeans cannot win in the field, the survivors will most likely decide to hole up in castles and wait for relief or for the Mongols to leave, then harry the Mongols. But tehre are problems with this approach as well. I can't think of to many fortresses strong enough to resist for a long time and strategically located so that the Mongols must take them immediatly. The survivors could easily be mopped up after the conquest. And the mongols were masters of siege warfare. This field is not my area of expertise, but I would think that, given sufficient time, any city or castle in the mongol;s path could be reduced.

Perhaps as importantly, the Europeans will have to present a united front to have any real hope of repelling the mongols. Unfortunatly for them, the odds of that seem rather slim. This is not the best analogy, but in the 1520s the German states made an excellent show of delay and inaction, but a far less substantial show of force when it came to the Ottomans advancing through Central Europe. It is far from inconcievable to see the German Princes bickering or even fighting until the Mongols are actually rampaging through germany. A similar picture is likely to happen in this scenario. Now, if I remember correctly, the French were preparing to repulse the Mongols, but there are questions as to whether they could have saved Europe from the Mongols.

A part of me thinks the Byzantines side with the Mongols, and cause all sorts of havoc in the Balkans, but I'm not certain as to how.

Does this mean that Europe is finished? Not quite. The europeans have a final trump card that nobody is even considering: Ogadai. In OTL, it was his death that prevented the Mongols from penetrating as far as they did, as they were recalled to select a new Khan. have him survive a little longer and then die at the opprotune time (say, when Mongol armies are standing on the Oder, or even the Rhine) ends the Mongol invasion. You then get a shattered central europe, and surviving states believing that they somehow forced the enemy to retreat (as after Legnica). What happens next depends on the situation on the ground when the Mongols withdraw.

This might actually make a decent timeline, if I (or somebody else) want to flesh this out.

Rekjavik said:

The Mongols OTL Russian territories.

To give you guys an idea of the extent of the Mongol invasion, let us say they manage to crush Poland and Hungary and they reach the Adriatic through Croatia and Dalmatia. They are not stopped until they reach Dresden in the north and Venice in the south.

How could Europe feasibly stop the Mongols at the Oder and Italy? What effects are evident if Eastern Europe is ravaged by the Mongols, only to be eventually liberated?

Click to expand...

They wouldn't need to stop the Mongols. After the invasion of Hungary the Mongols all left Hungary and went back to the Russian Steppe for the simple reason that the Pannonian Plain could not support the tens of thousands of horses that the Mongol army required. As IOTL Logistics will save Europe, not to mention the fact that the Mongols were not that interested in invading Europe, as the Middle East and China presented much richer targets.

Scarecrow said:

They wouldn't need to stop the Mongols. After the invasion of Hungary the Mongols all left Hungary and went back to the Russian Steppe for the simple reason that the Pannonian Plain could not support the tens of thousands of horses that the Mongol army required. As IOTL Logistics will save Europe, not to mention the fact that the Mongols were not that interested in invading Europe, as the Middle East and China presented much richer targets.

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I've heard that one too, but to be honest you're discounting the role of Royal Blood in the Mongol phenomenon.

Sucession was a big deal and Hulegu's grand unstoppable invasion, for example, got stripped of most of the troops so they could accompany him to Karakorum. Kitbogha got cocky, and attacked an army four times his size. The Mongols never took Palestine or Egypt because they could never get 100,000 men in one place again.

Same thing happened in Europe. Even Nogai could never summon two full armies like Kadan and Subotai had, and a lot of troops that went East with Batu were later involved in killing each other when the Mongol princes quarelled.

So arguably, provided Ogedei lives, the Mongols have a window to beat Europe down something fierce, and establish vassal principalities like in Russia throughout Central Europe, while controlling Hungary directly to have easy access for puntive raids.

You would need to assassinate a high placed Mongol or two. The Mongol armies were as disciplined as modern western ones.

RGB said:

I've heard that one too, but to be honest you're discounting the role of Royal Blood in the Mongol phenomenon.

Sucession was a big deal and Hulegu's grand unstoppable invasion, for example, got stripped of most of the troops so they could accompany him to Karakorum. Kitbogha got cocky, and attacked an army four times his size. The Mongols never took Palestine or Egypt because they could never get 100,000 men in one place again.

Same thing happened in Europe. Even Nogai could never summon two full armies like Kadan and Subotai had, and a lot of troops that went East with Batu were later involved in killing each other when the Mongol princes quarelled.

So arguably, provided Ogedei lives, the Mongols have a window to beat Europe down something fierce, and establish vassal principalities like in Russia throughout Central Europe, while controlling Hungary directly to have easy access for puntive raids.

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Well yes, succession was a big deal. That goes without saying. However, the theory that Batu was prompted to withdraw from Hungary due to the death of his father falters when the evidence is considered. Because although Batu didn't withdraw to Mongolia, he withdrew to the Pontic Steppe. Its likely that Batu harboured ambitions to become quaghan, but his actions suggest that he was perfectly happy to remain in the west, and he showed great loyalty to Ogodei's successor Guyuk.

The fact remains that sheer logistics was the primary reason for the removal of the Mongols from Hungary. Consider this; there were an estimated 100,000 men occupying Hungary, which would require 400,000 horses. In his article The Mongols in the West (1999) Journal of Asian History v.33 n.1, Denis Sinor provides the figure of 42,000 square kilometres or 10,378,425 acres of suitable pasturage in Hungary. Since 25 acres were needed to support a single horse for a year, that puts the amount of horses supported on the pasture (assuming no other animal uses the land) at 83,027 horses, far below what the Mongols required.

Further west of Hungary they would have run into further problems, and Qagan took only a portion of his forces in his attack on the Dalmatian coastlands because of the lack of suitable pasturage.

There is a second possible reason for the withdrawal, and that is to assume that Batu's aims were far limited then we are led to believe. A consequence of the Mongols appearing on the western steppe was that it forced the flight of many Cumans westward into the Crimea and into Hungary. The Hungarian King Bela allowed the Cumans to settle in his realm, and it is likely that Batu only sought retribution against a King that sheltered his enemies. With Hungary crushed the Mongol force retreated back to the Pontic steppe, mission complete.

Rumours of Mongol invasion into Germany and France was no doubt spurred on by the apoplectic literature of the time painting them as Tartars. The same thing happened when the Magyars arrived in Europe in the 9th Century, although they were identified as the forces of Gog and Magog. The Mongolians were assumed to be the people prophesied by Pseudo-Methodius. Many were convinced that the Mongols were Ishmaelites.

So its a bit of a non-self forefilling prophecy that has coloured our view of the Mongol invasion of eastern Europe for eight hundred years.

Sources:

Jackson, P. (2005) The Mongols and the West, Pearson-Longman, London

Sinor, D. (1999) 'The Mongols in the West' Journal of Asian History 33(1) [link]

At this time in history Poland was fractured and weakened, could a strong unified Poland make a difference? May they could act as a more significant speed bump? Probably not much of a diference but its an idea to toy with, hell maybe with a stronger Poland you could end up with them leading a coalition of Centeral and Eastern European armies against the Mongols.

I remember on this board someone mentioned a Mongol-Hungarian battle that the Hungarians almost won in OTL and wrote up an alternatve where the Hungarians DID win.

If the Hungarians bloody the Mongols' nose, then what?

The Hohenstaufens successfully unifying Germany to a centralized hereditary monarchy in the 1150-1230 period might be a good start about repelling the Mongols.

Although of course by far the best way to stop Batu from raiding Hungary and Poland is to have ASBs ensure Rus never splinters, or have the major principalities of Rus and the Volga Bulgars ally immediately following the visit of demanding Mongol ambassadors.

But that would require the kind of political thinking that didn't exist at the time.

Alratan said:

Earlier discovery of the New World brings the potatoe to Europe much earlier. The producivity of northern European agriculture is signifcantly improved, leading to more advanced states and military technology/organisation. The pastoralist Mongols just can't compete economically.

Click to expand...

rcduggan said:

Why would this happen though? There would be few changes from OTL, as the OP said, so I don't see how this would lead to an earlier discovery of the Americas?

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He's not posting results, he's posting a PoD.

The Mongols were beatable enough, the Malemukes beat them and Ghengis & Co. weren't much different from other steppe tribes who the Byzantines defeated and coopted.

I think others have provided the intial parts of the answer, castles and pasture. Beyond Poland there isn't the pasture to feed the remounts the Mongold relied on for their mobility, so a growing season after they ravage Germany etc their horses will run out of food so Mongol strategic mobility with drop to similar level of European heavy cavalry. In a castelated region the Europeans will be able to ride out the initial invasion and gather their forces for a counter-attack as the Mongols mobility wanes and they can be held to battle. If battle is joined when the Mongols remounts are gone then they are screwed, they can't stop a heavy cavalry charge.

They took on China.

Southern China.

No grass, no plains (in fact, ALL very mountainous), rivers and fortified locations everywhere. Europe has nothing on it.

Which was done largely with Chinese manpower, granted, but the Mongols adeptly moved huge armies (by European standards) from China to Europe and vice versa. They could have gotten it had they really planned for it.

The problem is, of course, is that they were pathologically incapable of unity beyond that first generation, AND why waste time with Europe when you could conquer China instead?

So there's no need for "a PoD" at all. They are very likely to have turned around and left anyway as per OTL.

But it's no fun that way.