Valkyrie successful: a different Cold War

[General Zod]

July 1944: the Valkurie conspiracy succeeds in killing Hitler and arresting or killing the top echelons of the Nazi hierarchy. The Heer rank and file, the state bureaucracy, and the large majority of the Waffen-SS give their allegiance to the new government, there are some pockets of resistance by the Gestapo and SS throughout Europe, but they quelled after a few hours or days of fighting. The new government goes on the air, announcing their intentions to reestablish a “civil and Christian” government which is responsible to the German people and respectful of basic rights and liberties after the war is over. They also pledge their dedication to reestablish a “just and honorable peace” between Germany and the Allied nations.

British and American reaction is mixed: Churchill and Roosevelt reaffirm their dedication to the principle of unconditional surrender, public opinion is hostile to a negotiated compromise peace, but a sensible reduction of overall animosity to the German people is perceivable now that they ousted the Nazis. A majority wishes a quick end to the conflict and supports opening talks to discuss “humane and honorable” terms of surrender. The Soviet government remains hostile to the whole idea, and committed to total victory, denouncing the whole idea as a “fascist facade”.

August 1944: due to mounting political pressure, the Anglo-Americans begin talks in Sweden. The German junta’s naïve expectation of getting a favorable compromise peace that completely preserved its political independence, professional army, and the 1914 borders with Poland are quickly shot down when the Anglo-Americans insist on a complete surrender. Military operations settle on a lull on the Western and Italian Front as the Western Allies and the Germans wait for the result of the negotiations. The Wehrmacht withdraws large amounts of troops and supplies from those theaters and sends them to the Eastern Front. German resistance against the Soviets noticeably stiffens, despite the Red Army's intensified pressure to achieve a breakthrough.

In Italy, German troops arrest Mussolini and disarm the Fascist militias. The German junta is given complete evidence of the scope of the Final Solution. Horrified at the implications, they quickly shut down the process, sending all the humanitarian relief they can muster to the internees and making a nationwide round-up of the personal involved in the extermination operation, who they jail in the camps (a fitting punishment) for future trials by German or international tribunals.

September 1944: Reassessing their options, the German government comes to the conclusion that a stalemating strategy against the Western Allies in order to exaust them to a compromise peace is not possible and politically counterproductive. They accept the surrender of Germany in principle. They bring a new platform to the negotiation table, which offers a conditional and full surrender to the Anglo-Americans in exchange for guarantees of a) occupation by the Anglo-Americans alone b) the national unity of Germany c) the preservation of its economy d) territorial integrity in its rightful ethnic-linguistic borders e) no collective summary punishment for those innocent of Nazi crimes f) the return of political independence in due time after denazification and democratization are done.

The British government expresses general acceptance of the terms, making a reservation for the rights of Poland and Czechoslovakia. Roosevelt remains hostile to the concept of a conditional separate surrender, but political pressure against him in the Congress and the public begins to mount inexorably when the German governments makes its proposal public. The Republican presidential candidate begins to target Roosevelt’s stance, accusing him of philo-Soviet appeasement and an uncaring attitude towards the lives of American soldiers. Support for Roosevelt plummets in the polls and the resulting stress noticeably accelerates his physical decline.

On September 13, 1944 Roosevelt suffers a fatal stroke. Vice-President Wallace succeeds him, but his radical left-wing political and eccentric religious opinions, as well as his support of racial desegregation, quickly make him very unpopular. The Democratic Party splits: radical New-Dealers support Wallace for the Presidency, conservative Southerners support Sen. Harry Byrd. The centrist majority of the party nominates former Vice-Presidential candidate Harry S. Truman for President but both Wallace and Byrd are nominated by fringe radical left or splinter conservative southern Democratic parties.

Dewey successfully campaigns against the divided Democratic party for refocusing American efforts to defeat Japan and denounces Wallace as a crypto-Communist that would send American soldiers to die in order to aggrandize Stalin and expand Bolshevism in Europe. He pledges to end the war in Europe with full victory by offering honorable German soldiers a humane “Lee’s peace” if they shall stand down and hand over Nazi criminals.

German troops begin a gradual retreat on the Western and Italian fronts towards the borders of Germany, letting the Anglo-Americans advance peacefully. Germany continues to concentrate its troops and supplies stockpiles on the Eastern Front. Despite the Red Army’s frenzied attacks, the Soviets are stalemated on the Niemen in East Prussia and the Narev-Vistula line in Poland, even if they manage to reoccupy the Baltic states and to stage a breakthrough in Romania. German offers for a ceasefire and recognition of the Soviet 1941 borders are rebuffed. Finland signs an armistice with the Soviets, and the Germans retreat from the country.

October 1944: Romania collapses and surrenders to the Soviets. German troops retreat into Transylvania and Hungary and dig in the Carpathian mountains. Soviet troops invade Bulgaria. Anglo-American troops complete the occupation of France, Norway, Benelux countries, and Italy. The Western Allies land in Greece and quickly secure the country from retreating Germans. Tensions between the Anglo-Americans and Communist militias soon explode into open fighting.

The fighting in Greece and Soviet refusal of a ceasefire in Eastern Europe turns the Anglo-American public opinion suspicious of the motives of Stalin and the Communists. The public in both countries is pleased for the bloodless liberation of Western Europe and the collaborative attitude of the new German regime. Support for Roosevelt's legacy and Wallace's platform of close cooperation with the Soviets and a draconian peace with Germany plummets, and approval for Dewey "Lee's peace" in Europe steadily increases, as the American public wishes a quick end to the war in the European theater and to "finish the job" and settle the score of Pearl Harbor with Japan.

November-December 1944: On election day - November 7 - Dewey receives 24 million votes to Truman's 22 million, and in the Electoral College, Dewey defeats Truman 287 to 193. Sen. Byrd receives 2 million popular votes and 50 in the electoral college. Henry Wallace receives one million popular votes and no electoral ones. Wallace resigns the Presidency and Secretary of State Cordell Hull takes over as Acting President. The Acting President pledges to take heed of the people's will in settling the situation in Europe and Japan.

Renewed negotiations between the German government and the Western Allies bring to the following agreement, signed in Stockholm: full and complete surrender of German forces to the Anglo-Americans, occupation of Germany by the Anglo-Americans, Western Allies' guarantee of national unity and territorial integrity of Germany in its pre-Munich borders, except for East Prussia, cession of Sudetenland to Czechoslovakia, West and East Prussia to Poland, and evacuation of the German nationals thereof, relocation of the Polish minority in Silesia to Prussia, preservation of non-military German industry, lack of Soviet occupation and collective punishments for the German people, the trial of surviving Nazi leaders and war criminals before international tribunals, full denazification of German society, return in “due time” of demilitarized Germany to political independence and a market economy. Germany shall pay reparations to countries it has invaded, the amount of which shall be established by the occupying powers in agreement with the wronged parties.

Concerning the Soviet issue, the accords state that Germany ought to withdraw from all pre-war Soviet territory (largely a moot issue by the time), and respect all accords between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union concerning the settlement of Eastern Europe. German troops on the Eastern front which fought in occupied or Axis countries are to surrender to incoming Anglo-American troops, and to establish and respect ceasefires between them and the Soviets whenever possible, but are not obliged to surrender to the Soviets.

Anglo-American troops quickly sweep Germany, disarming unresisting Wehrmacht troops. German troops in Prussia, Poland, Hungary hold out against Soviet forces until the arrival of the Anglo-Americans. The Red Army, assisted by Communist Yugoslav militias, sweep Serbia and Vardar Macedonia. German troops, assisted by Croat and Hungarian forces, however manage to hold out in Vojvodina, on the Sava-Danube line, and in Bosnia, on the Drina, until the Anglo-Americans arrive. Hungary surrenders to the Western Allies. Western Allies troops advacning from Greece along the Adriatic coastline secure Albania.

Stalin is besides himself with rage at being largely shut out of Central Europe and Soviet propaganda denounces the Western “betrayal” but eventually dares not to open another war with the Anglo-Americans. Difficult negotiations between the Western Allies and the Soviets at Yalta produce the following agreement: the Western Allies recognize the 1941 borders of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union recognizes the borders and poltical status of Germany as defined in the Stockholm Accords, Romania, Bulgaria, and Finland are acknowledged in the Soviet sphere of influence, Western Europe, Greece, Albania, Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia are acknowledged in the Anglo-American sphere of influence. All such countries shall be allowed national sovreigntiy, political independence, and a democratic government. Poland and Yugoslavia shall be provisionally divided into Western and Soviet occupation zones until a unitary government can be elected, subsequently to become neutral states (for Yugoslav nationalities, referendums shall decide whether a unitary multinational state or a set of separate nationals tates shall be restored). The territories of Transylvania and Vojvodina, which Hungary annexed during the war, are to be provisionally administered by the Anglo-Americans until a referendum shall define their ownership. War crimes and crimes against humanity and democracy by individuals of Axis powers shall be tried by international tribunals. Reparations by Axis powers towards invaded countries were acknowledged, their amount to be established by negotiations between the occupying powers and the wronged countries.

Stalin reluctantly accepts the Yalta accords as a recognition of the military situation on the ground, but denounces the armistice with Finland, quoting specious violations of the ceasefire, and orders the occupation of the country: after an heroic resistance, the Finnish army is overwhelmed and Finland is occupied by the Soviets.

War in Europe officially comes to an end on January 10, 1945, as Finland surrenders (albeit barely contained hostility simmers in Greece between the Communists and Anglo-Americans, and Communists in other European countries stockpile weapons and prepare for Moscow’s orders). The gaze of the Stalin and the Western Allies powers turns east.

[Hresvelgr]

Very nice, about time someone decided to post a Valkyrie TL instead of yet another discussion thread. But I wonder who is in charge of the new Germany and what role does Stauffenberg play now?

[MerryPrankster]

This is perhaps the second Valkyrie TL I've actually seen (other than this one where the Valkyrie gang seize power and are overthrown by Nazi diehards a month later). Most of the time we just dissolve into arguments about whether or not conditional surrender by the new leadership would be a good thing, just how moral Von Stauffenberg actually was, Grimm posting the talking points about how Hitler was more useful to the Allied cause alive than dead, etc.

If the postwar borders are pre-Munich, why is East/West Prussia going to Poland? Other than the Polish Corridor, weren't those part of pre-WWII Germany?

Interesting situation. Greece is free of Soviet control, as is Hungary, but the Soviets have everything in between. I wonder if there will be Soviet naval bases on the Adriatic?

About the Holocaust, wouldn't the junta be made aware of that much earlier? Assuming complete ignorance of that on their part (which is EXTREMELY doubtful), I figured they'd find out about this within hours if not days of seizing control of everything.

About Poland, do you foresee an East and West Poland or a neutral unified Poland?

Something tells me the Allies will want Yugoslavia to be neutral, as a split Yugoslavia might give the Soviets even more Adriatic coastline.

[General Zod]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

If the postwar borders are pre-Munich, why is East/West Prussia going to Poland? Other than the Polish Corridor, weren't those part of pre-WWII Germany?

For the postwar borders, the Western Allies, once philo-Commie Roosevelt is get rid of, essentially follow Churchill's advice who was in favor of giving Prussia to Poland as compensation but leaving the rest of Germany intact. Western Allies' choice about Prussia has several motivations: they want to compensate Poland for the suffering of WWII and and loss of the territories annexed by Russia, they want to make Poland a bit sturdier against the Soviets, they want to end German-Polish disputes once and for all by building a clean, definite ethnic border at Pomerania and Silesia. They aren't going to let Germany go entirely scot-free (hence the loss and population transfer of Sudentenland and Prussia) but as compensation, they let the Anschluss stand and move the Polish minority in Silesia (what survived Hitler, anyway) to Prussia.

Interesting situation. Greece is free of Soviet control, as is Hungary, but the Soviets have everything in between. I wonder if there will be Soviet naval bases on the Adriatic?

Yep. To a large degree, it's the old sphere of influence Russia wanted in the Balkans (minus Greece and the Straits). Stalin managed to recover all of its conuntry, and fulfill that old aspiration, so he chalk the war's outcome as a major victory, but he missed the main prizes, thanks to Stauffenberg.

About the Soviet naval bases in the Adriatic ? Quite possibly. We all know how it most typically ends down when the Western powers and the Soviets build separate occupation zones and make talk about future general elections, and reunification in a neutral state.

About the Holocaust, wouldn't the junta be made aware of that much earlier?

Somewhat aware that Hitler was doing something truly horrible, yes, but they did not have full details on the mind-boggling scope of the operation until they were in charge and had stabilized the country. Their first priorities were rounding up the Nazi, establish a government, calm down the anxious population, stabilize the military situation, prepare a negotiation platform with the Allies. They got full awareness of the Final Solution's dimensions as they were rounding up the last Nazi.

About Poland, do you foresee an East and West Poland or a neutral unified Poland?

There are political butterflies to provide both solutions, but methinks the former is more likely, Poland is too precious to both blocks.

Something tells me the Allies will want Yugoslavia to be neutral, as a split Yugoslavia might give the Soviets even more Adriatic coastline.

Possibly, but it all depends on whether the Anglo-Americans and the Soviets can find the motivation to go that much cooperative (the Yalta accords were a dire necessity, the troops of the two blocks were warily looking each other at gunpoint from the Baltic to Adriatic and the Greek border, a recipe for disaster), but there are other areas where the newborn blocks are going to collide: Persia, East Asia...

[General Zod]

Originally Posted by Hresvelgr

But I wonder who is in charge of the new Germany and what role does Stauffenberg play now?

The Anglo-American occupation authorities are in charge of Germany after the surrender, but prestigious members of the ex-Junta and the civilian German Resistance are very valued advisors. The post-war political structure is rather like OTL Japan, the Anglo-American attitude is rather less punitive and distrustful of the general German population and they are bound by the Stockholm Accords.

Stauffenberg and other members of the former post-Nazi government (including Rommel, who did not actually take an active part inthe coup, but sided with it immediately and lent its huge populairty and prestige to support the new regime) are currently among such advisors, and idolized by the German public as national heroes, who saved the Fatherland from destruction and Communist occupation and redeemed its honor by ousting the murderous tyrant and his goons.

In time, Germany shall sublimate and distance from collective guilt for Hitler's misdeeds by rebuilding a national myth around the anti-Nazi coup and the heroic "last stand" against the Soviets (much like Italy and France did with their own Resistance).

[King Thomas]

This is a great timeline.

[vultan]

I really like this, but I have a question: how does this effect the Japanese front, if at all?

[DrakonFin]

Originally Posted by General Zod

Stalin is besides himself with rage at being largely shut out of Central Europe and Soviet propaganda denounces the Western “betrayal” but eventually dares not to open another war with the Anglo-Americans. Difficult negotiations between the Western Allies and the Soviets at Yalta produce the following agreement: the Western Allies recognize the 1941 borders of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union recognizes the border of Germany as defined in the Stockholm Accords, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, and Finland are acknowledged in the Soviet sphere of influence, Western Europe, Greece, Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia are acknowledged in the Anglo-American sphere of influence. Poland and Yugoslavia shall be provisionally divided into Western and Soviet occupation zones until a unitary government can be elected, subsequently to become neutral states.

Stalin reluctantly accepts the Yalta accords as a recognition of the military situation on the ground, but denounces the armistice with Finland, quoting specious violations of the ceasefire, and orders the occupation of the country: after an heroic resistance, the Finnish army is overwhelmed and Finland is occupied by the Soviets.

War in Europe officially comes to an end on January 10, 1945, as Finland surrenders...

OTL Stalin had in 1943 promised the Americans' several times to maintain Finnish independence. This was undoubtably because he the US publicly maintained a positive attitude towards Finland and seemed to consider her a special case amongst German allies, for example the US did not accept the Soviet demand for the unconditional surrender of Finland. Finland was scarcely discussed in OTL Yalta, and after the war Stalin at some point made a slip (?) saying that Finland was not occupied 44-46 because he "respected" the Americans too much.

Why do the Western Allies accept Finland being in the Soviet sphere of influence ITTL? The decision seems to run counter the established US policy and indeed American interests in the whole Scandinavian area. ITTL, the US position in Europe is stronger, not weaker, so why appease Stalin in this instance more than OTL?

There is, of course, also the view that by '44 Stalin saw that the occupation of Finland was just not worth the hassle and the possible resultant insurgency would make the country a constant bleeding sore for the Red Army. Some say this was one of the major reasons for not grabbing Finland even though it would have been militarily perfectly feasible, opting for indirect political control instead. According to this train of thought the Arms Cache Case of 1945 was useful for maintaining this conviction (or illusion, as it might have been).

[General Zod]

Originally Posted by DrakonFin

OTL Stalin had in 1943 promised the Americans' several times to maintain Finnish independence. This was undoubtably because he the US publicly maintained a positive attitude towards Finland and seemed to consider her a special case amongst German allies, for example the US did not accept the Soviet demand for the unconditional surrender of Finland. Finland was scarcely discussed in OTL Yalta, and after the war Stalin at some point made a slip (?) saying that Finland was not occupied 44-46 because he "respected" the Americans too much.

No doubt ITTL he deems such promises forfeit when the Western Allies concede a conditional separate surrender to Germany which effectively cuts him of any further gains at the peace table and limits them to what the Red Army won on the ground (not to mention they revoked the previous declarations of Theran and Moscow that annulled the Anschluss and establihed the German-Polish border at the Oder-Neisse; granted such declarations had only been possible because of an unholy combination between Stalin's bullying and Roosevelt's weakness, and Western Allies had very very good reasons to revoke them and give a just peace to anti-Nazi Germany in order to end the war earlier, but still it indirectly deprived Stalin of his ounce of German flesh). Moreover, ITTL earlier repproachement with the Germans is mirrored by a faster decline of trust and friendship between the Soviets and the Americans when the philo-Communist New Dealers fall from power.

In short words, Stalin ITTL is able to conquer less, and less naive Americans don't give him an inch more than he conquered, so he exploits more of what he was granted.

Why do the Western Allies accept Finland being in the Soviet sphere of influence ITTL? The decision seems to run counter the established US policy and indeed American interests in the whole Scandinavian area. ITTL, the US position in Europe is stronger, not weaker, so why appease Stalin in this instance more than OTL?

They were not in the position to put "boots on the ground" in Finland or Romania quick enough to claim it in the Western sphere of influence, Stalin had already forced them to submission, so they accept them in the Soviet sphere as indirectly-controlled nations. Later, when Stalin abuses the spirit of the Yalta Accords and enforce full Sovietization on them, well, it's still Winter '44-45. The American people, even if they turning quicker to the Cold War mood ITTL, they still have a major war to fight in Asia and would prefer the rather advantageous settlement that the Stockholm and Yalta Accords give them, rather than picking another major conventional war in Europe in order to free such relatively minor nations like Finland, Romania, and Bulgaria. They have not yet the appetite for risking a conventional WWIII, nor the nukes to bully Stalin.

The Rommel-Stauffenberg government already made amazing miracles keeping the vast majority of Central Europe free with their Eastern Europe "last stand", but in order to make more, the coup ought to have succeded at the previous attempt, in March 1943.

OOC: this is of course subject to butterflies, quite probably in an ATL of TTL the post-Nazi Heer and their Finnish and Romanian allies are just a bit more lucky and manage to contain Stalin inside his pre-war border entirely until the Yankee cavalry arrives (theoretically, with most of the divisions from the Western and Italian front moving East, the Wehrmacht might have been able to make the same impassable defense in Moldavia than they did in Prussia, Poland, and Hungary, thus saving the Balkans too from Communist horror, but alas, the butterflies of war: I preferred to make the "last stand" of the "redeemed" Heer suitably heroic but too much so).

Anyway, the brutal Sovietization of Finland, East Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, etc, definitely solidifies the American public that Stalin is up to no good.

There is, of course, also the view that by '44 Stalin saw that the occupation of Finland was just not worth the hassle and the possible resultant insurgency would make the country a constant bleeding sore for the Red Army. Some say this was one of the major reasons for not grabbing Finland even though it would have been militarily perfectly feasible, opting for indirect political control instead.

Yup, but ITOL he had conquered half of Europe, he could afford to be relatively generous and give ONE country non-Communist satellitization, here his booty,, while still impressive, is less amazing, so he prefers to be safe and use his usual brutal cohercion methods. Of course, this just convinces Sweden that neutrality is suicidal and jumps them squarely in the American camp, so Stalinist brutality has its own punishment.

[General Zod]

Originally Posted by vultan

I really like this, but I have a question: how does this effect the Japanese front, if at all?

Of course. Think of this, the Americans have been gifted with almost an extra year when they can conquer almost all of Western and Central Europe with little more than occupation forces, while the Russians exaust themselves against the Axis stonewall. Besides what they need to maintain order in occupied countries and man the aborning Iron Curtain, this leaves them with an helluva windfall of extra manpower and equipment, where else could thay exploit them, if not in Asia (picking WWIII is still politically outlandish, even if Scandinavian-Americans are crying murder) ? They can do more, earlier, and better. if they are any smart, the Japanese Home Silands can be crushed with carpet bombing and thre nukes, but there is a theater where they can kick serious JP and Commie butts alike, and lack of timely American major committment bit them sorely in the butt later, namely mainland East Asia. In addition to Pacific leapfrogging, they can do a lot there, too. Mao is going to have serious problems. Of course, to a lesser degree, Stalin can do more in Asia earlier, too.

[Communist Wizard]

Fully confirms my thoughts on the Germano-philia / Russo-phobia of the board (the Soviets must do worse, not better at all possibilities, vice-versa for the Germans)
However, it is very interesting and a good TL.

[MerryPrankster]

About ethnic borders, what was the ethnic composition of East and West Prussia? I thought those areas were German.

Here's another thought:

Austria politically was Socialist in Vienna and Catholic everywhere else. If Austria is included in the postwar Germany, how will that affect German politics? I would imagine the Catholic Centre Party would be stronger, for starters.

[Grimm Reaper]

So after Stalin does a deal with Japan Mao takes over China a year or two sooner while Japan puts up a much better fight in the last months what with the influx of Soviet supplies and equipment being provided.

[Vaude]

Cool timeline. However, I have to say, I can't see the Soviets pushing to Albania, not when Greece is taken by the Allies so soon ITTL. In fact, I can't see much of Yugoslavia other than maybe Macedonia by the Red Army... the Allies take control of Greece so soon, they have plenty of time to protect Albania and move on the Adriatic coastline before the Red Army gets there. I also can't see the Red Army being pushed back passed the Vistula and Warsaw... it would very implausible, to me, if the Soviet occupation area were less than that.

As for East Prussia, no way is that going to be given to Poland. Its entirely German! Only the Soviets were capable of the madness of evacuating the Germans from that area. Sure, maybe you could carve the border areas away to give to Poland, but all of East Prussia... that would not be accepted by the German junta, no way. Same goes for West Prussia.

I agree with you on Finland though, Stalin has much more encouraging him to take control there and make it a communist satellite.

[MerryPrankster]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

So after Stalin does a deal with Japan Mao takes over China a year or two sooner while Japan puts up a much better fight in the last months what with the influx of Soviet supplies and equipment being provided.

Would the Japanese be willing to turn over China to Mao in exchange for Soviet aid and equipment?

Considering how great chunks of the Japanese military were in China even as the Allies were advancing through the Pacific towards the Home Islands, methinks they'd be a bit more attached to their mainland empire.

Plus the Russians want Japanese territory.

[Neroon]

I hope you'll continue this TL. Junta giving the West anything they could possibly want in a conditional surrender and submit to occupation seems to be the way to deal with the "Valkyrie wouldn't work" debates we've had too much of.

My cents:
1. I do not consider the OTL German borderline hysterical anti-anythingthatcouldsomehowbepercievedasmilitarisorri ghtism cultural mindset as "democratically healthy" in the long run. Germany taking as long as it did to enact anti-smoking in public laws, just because Hitler was an ardent non-smoker, is a prime example of this kind of phobia. An "We did it ourselves"-myth developing aka France is not ideal either, but the lesser evil IMO. With less need for immigration to begin with due to much lesser civilian casulties, that will have interesting consequences around the turn of the century.

2. I think Poland will become permanently split into 2 (at least for the duration of the Cold War) rather than united neural. Germany and Korea were after all supposed to be only temorarily split. The reasoning is quite simply: A united but neutral Poland would probably still be a democratic and capitalist one. Stalin faced with that would simply hold onto his half unless and sod agreements.

3. Having a Soviet Union next door that keeps Finland under the Yoke should make for a quite different Sweden over the coming decades.

4. We now have a Red Army, that is pretty much at the peak of it's WW2 capabilities. Core of Veterans, good equipment, while not having taken the OTL casulties from autumn '44 to the fall of Berlin and less territory to occupy. -> Stalin is going to find something useful for them to do. Communist Persia and a more Soviet-"influenced" PRC are in the cards IMO.

5. This TL could still become a terrible dystopia: Stalin turns all his attention East grabbing all of Korea and an occupation zone in Japan. Resulting in no Animes and Hallyu Dramas, forcing people to still rely only on US productions for their TV watching . Fate worse than death!

[General Zod]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

Austria politically was Socialist in Vienna and Catholic everywhere else. If Austria is included in the postwar Germany, how will that affect German politics? I would imagine the Catholic Centre Party would be stronger, for starters.

Yes, ITTL it would happen so. However, it also has to be considered that the deeds of Stauffenberg & co. make antifascist center-of-right politics quite respectable, just like DeGaulle did in France. So you might see a buffed-up CDU emerge, or instead the likes of Stauffenberg and Rommel (I definitely expect either or both to become President of the German Republic sooner or later) drive post-German politics to evolve in a "Gaullist" direction, with a strong Federal Presidential Republic (they have shown that not all strong leaders are dangerous and evil) and a secular center-of-right big party squaring against a socialdemocratic big one.

[DrakonFin]

Originally Posted by General Zod

Western Allies had very very good reasons to revoke them and give a just peace to anti-Nazi Germany in order to end the war earlier, but still it indirectly deprived Stalin of his ounce of German flesh). Moreover, ITTL earlier repproachement with the Germans is mirrored by a faster decline of trust and friendship between the Soviets and the Americans when the philo-Communist New Dealers fall from power.

In short words, Stalin ITTL is able to conquer less, and less naive Americans don't give him an inch more than he conquered, so he exploits more of what he was granted.

They were not in the position to put "boots on the ground" in Finland or Romania quick enough to claim it in the Western sphere of influence, Stalin had already forced them to submission, so they accept them in the Soviet sphere as indirectly-controlled nations. Later, when Stalin abuses the spirit of the Yalta Accords and enforce full Sovietization on them, well, it's still Winter '44-45. The American people, even if they turning quicker to the Cold War mood ITTL, they still have a major war to fight in Asia and would prefer the rather advantageous settlement that the Stockholm and Yalta Accords give them, rather than picking another major conventional war in Europe in order to free such relatively minor nations like Finland, Romania, and Bulgaria. They have not yet the appetite for risking a conventional WWIII, nor the nukes to bully Stalin.

This exactly is the sticking point. The Anglo-Americans seem to jump into a Cold War mindset a few years early, and still give freely away a un-occupied Western democracy that just in 1939-40 was a focus of a strong popular support and anti-Soviet feelings in the West. There is a faster decline of trust between Americans and Stalin, certainly, when Stalin has been declined his just retribution for the German invasion. The idea of placating him with Finland and Romania seems a bit like stealing someone's car and wallet and then giving him back 5 euros for bus fare. By double crossing Stalin over Germany is already "risking a conventional WWIII", so sticking by Finland would be small potatoes.

Having Finland present in the Stockholm negotiations would be quite easy, as Finnish representatives were conducting their talks with the Soviets there already. It would be, then, possible to see a separate peace between Finland and Britain at the same time as a deal is made with Germany.

To put "boots on the ground", it would not be much of a strech to get the Swedish to allow the transport of a limited amount of Anglo-American troops into Finland through a Sweden that would be suitably afraid of the possibility of Finland falling into Soviet hands. Agreement is made with the Germans, that they start withdrawing from Finland only when Allied troops will arrive to replace them. Thus, when Finland negotiates a ceasefire with the Soviets in September-October, there are already Western troops in the country. Not much, but enough to act as a deterrent.

But this happens only if the Hull administration really wants to go the extra mile and to look like a defender of democracy against the Red Menace. Having already antagonized Stalin, I cannot see why not.If Stalin will not go to war over Germany, why do it for puny Finland?

[Michel Van]

fascinated TL

because the longterm effect !
Sovjet will never get German high tech !
No V-2 => no R-7 ICBM, no Sputnik, no Yurin Gagarin in space !
No Jetengine => no Mig-15 or Mig-25 !

while England, France, USA (and Germany ?) discover the Jetage
the Sovjet still fly with propeller aircraft
(I don't know, if the Western Allies gave Jetengine to USSR in WW2...)

another question is president Cordell Hull
He was the architect in the creation of the United Nations
"a world organization to prevent a third World War."
so U.N. become under him a more powerfull organisation ?

Hull got the 1945 Nobel Prize for Peace
will this men use the Atomic Bomb on japan ?

Stalin will trigger the Cold War in this TL

so wat gona happen ?
Germany an Poland together in NATO
or in European conterpart EDC (European Defence Community).

i like the Idea of a Germany rearmament based on Me 262, improved M 163-C or Tiger Tanks...

[MerryPrankster]

DrakonFin has a good point. Perhaps Stalin "abides by his agreement to the letter" and withdraws from occupied parts of Finland, taking all the population and industry there with him?

(I'm thinking the last episode of the Battletech TV series where Adam Steiner defeats the Jade Falcon general Nicolai Malthus in a duel for his home planet and the Jade Falcons leave, taking the entire population with them)

That would be a suitably nasty thing for Stalin to do.

Grimm's idea of the Soviets trying some kind of revenge on the West in China and Japan might be a good one. If they give Japan supplies in exchange for Sakhalin and the Japanese win one last victory in the Pacific (perhaps forcing the Okinawa invasion back into the sea and requiring a nuke to deal with them), it could give the ones who opposed the deal with the Valkyrie plotters ammunition.

(Perhaps a resurgent Wallace later?)