The Long Little Ice Age: WI no Medieval Warm Period?

Climate is a fickle mistress, so what if for some reason instead of the climate warming during 800-1300 AD, it kept getting colder. So, a Long Little Ice Age lasting for almost 1000 years from 400 AD, actually becoming its most severe around the time of OTL's Medieval Warm Period?

The retreat of agriculture and pasturalism and extent of reforestation in Scandinavia and Central Europe is likely to be even more extensive ITTL. Not enough Norsemen to go a'Viking, no settlement of Greenland and Iceland. Glaciers will spread out of the Swiss alps. Northern Europe will remain composed of densely populated settlements surrounded by wilderness, and the Latin West won't enjoy the recovery of OTL. The Polobian Slavs may survive in this TL.

Other regions will be affected differently. Equatorial East Africa may be wetter, for example. There may not be drought in the Yucatan, helping preserve Mayan civilization. The Niger river flooded in OTL Little Ice Age, perhaps West Africa would be wetter, and the Sahel wider in this period.

Say the Long Little Ice Age begins to end around the 19th century. What would the world look like then?
 
Would a wider Sahel strengthen the Mail empire, or at least the area where it was located OTL?
 
Even if other empires are not particularly strengthened by this phenomenon, they are relatively stronger and able to do more, further afield, with less.

With less agricultural opportunities, European population stays lower and they rely more on trade for staples than for luxury goods. Smaller populations and more forests mean more wolves and a tougher time maintaining flocks. So that means more land for wool, less for vines in places like France, much further south than IOTL. Britain and Germany remain weak and unimportant, to say nothing of points east.

Islam stands a good chance of pushing further, though they may not want to, beyond possibly surrounding the Med.

It's hard to say where that water would come from in Africa. What are the wind patterns like from central Europe? wherever they normally blow, they'll take some very cold and very wet air with them.

I'm guessing this is all caused by some stall in the North Atlantic Current, is that correct? You'd need to find out what the wind in Africa does when that happens and what the wind in Europe does when that happens, and then you'll know what life is going to be like ITTL.
 
The root cause is not so cut and dry. The causation of the Little Ice Age (and climactic fluctuations in general) in OTL is a matter of considerable debate. I'm not so much interested in the cause as the effects, so we could put it down to a combination of decreased solar activity and an interruption of the Gulf stream.

The flooding in West Africa is based on what happened in the Little Ice Age in OTL, Timbuktu was flooded by the Niger a number of times, something that never happens today. Extrapolating what we know about how the climate affected different regions in OTL, I think it's reasonable to expect North Africa to be considerable wetter and more fertile for wheat. Islam will probably be the big winner here, but perhaps also the Byzantines. The Muslim Agricultural Revolution of OTL may be even more significant ITTL.

I think things will match OTL roughly until the 10th century, when the climate would really start to veer off from OTL. In North America, the droughts of this period OTL will be averted, with perhaps some positive effects for cultures there.
 
Here's the OTL average temperature anomalies, at least for the North Atlantic, over the Holocene.

longlittleiceageclimateotl.PNG
 
And here's how I want to mess with it, basically using the rationale that the odd period of reduced solar radiation in OTL's Little Ice Age, starts earlier and longer. You can see there is a bump of relative warmth compared to the past still evident until around 500-600, but after that temperatures begin to drop.

Not everywhere, and not all the time, of course, and some areas are more affected than others.

Some quick thoughts on what I noted today:

Northern and Western Europe

* Less agriculture, less people, more disease.
* More storms, more drift ice, frozen Baltic.
* In summertime, a lot of hailstones.
* Cod and herring move south, maybe some good fishing around the south of England, meaning better boats. Anglo-Saxons filling the roles of the Vikings ITTL?
* Feudalism doesn't develop, chattel slavery remains the norm, Northern Europe is a source of slaves for Islam in the south.
* No Vikings, obviously enough, also less likely to see a Kievan Rus.
* If the Franks fall to Islam, the great power of Christendom may end up being the Bulgars.
* Much, much slower advance of Christianity against paganism.
* We may see Eskimo in canoe appearing off the coast of Ireland and Scotland. It happened in the Little Ice Age in OTL.

Elsewhere

Increased aridity vis-a-vis OTL (where there was higher rainfall during the same WMP) stunts the development of Andean civilization, meanwhile the lack of droughts in the American southwest (the North Pacific is actually warmer than OTL due to the lack of a differential thermal response to the radiative forcing in the western and eastern Pacific) might mean greater expansion of agriculture in the American southwest.

The Pacific is going to be wetter and stormier. China is going to be slightly colder than OTL (and the south less hospitable due to storms), which means slightly less population growth, which may mean a lot less control of the Central Asian spice trade routes by Tang China.

More as research continues.

longlittleiceageclimateittl.PNG
 
Don't think this is generating much interest, but it's still interesting me, so I'm gonna keep going :D

Effects of the Little Ice Age

Many of the effects I am postulated are going to be largely drawn from the OTL Little Ice Age, or from the actual Ice Ages. What causes climate effects are poorly understood, and expect that with the Long Little Ice Age there will be a number of different fluctuations in different regions which will have different effects. Much of the world will be colder and drier that in OTL for the most part, though certainly not everywhere. From the point of view of humanity and it's civilization, certain regions will, in general be net losers, while others net winners. Things remain, climatically and historically, the same until roughly the middle of the 7th century, when global temperatures which had been slowly on the increase, begin a slow and steady decline.

Europe will be the biggest net loser. Throughout this period, northern Europe is going to be cold and dominated largely by thick pine forest, with populations shringing and becoming quite isolated. The winters will be long, and the summers short and plagued by hailstones. In Scotland, reindeer herding may increased in importance, while around the coasts of England the local fishermen will benefit from the increased yields of herring and cod migrating south. Scandinavia is probably going to be dominated by Saami types for a long period to come. Iceflows are going to make navigation in the northern seas a difficult prospect at best. In the absence of Norwegian expansion populations in the British Isles may be shifted around less, and the Picts are likely to survive. Invasions from the mainland may be a continued threat, however, particularly as the lowered temperatures occasionally cause the English channel to freeze over enough for armies to march directly from the continent. The absence of Varangians is going to mean that the Eastern Slavic culture will be far more influenced by the Khazars of the south.

The big winner is Northern Africa, able to yield absolutely as well as relatively higher yields than OTL. This will only be further enhanced by the Muslim Agricultural Revolution, and we will see North Africa becoming once again one of the most important and populaous regions of the Mediterranean. Even south of the Atlas mountains, where the effects will be less obvious, this will hold true. In general, the rate of desiccation will be slower than OTL, and West Africa somewhat wetter (particularly the Niger river and an expanded Lake Chad). This will mean earlier and more extensive contacts between flourishing North Africa and the gold-rich black kingdoms to the south, as well as increased likelihood of a state powerful enough to unite the Sahel and create a single trade zone between East and West Africa. In southwest Africa, dessication will be greater than OTL.

Another winner is the American southwest. As North America in general may become cool in some regions (though this is not necessarily the case, as in OTL during the Little Ice Age the climate in North America was quite warm), there will be a significant advantage to the Southwest in the absence of the great droughts that typified the period in OTL. The most likely beneficiaries are going to be the peoples of the Southwest, and their agriculture and urbanisation may be much more extensive than in OTL, and possibly maize agriculture could spread to California. In the south, the Yucatan is going to go through an earlier drought than OTL, but at a higher point in Mayan history. This could force changes to the Mayan society, or trigger a migration west at the expense of the declining Teotihuacan.

A loser of sorts is north Asia, which is going to see the population growth that occured during the Tang OTL to be much less pronounced. There likely will still be a population shift south, but the reduced population and increased southern typhoons are going to make Chinese power and culture projection toward the south more difficult. Indianized kingdoms like the Champas and other states such as the Nanzhao are going to be better positioned than in OTL to resist sinification and the power of the Chinese state. Though the threat from northern barbarians may be reduced due to lower populations amongst those peoples, the threat of the Gokturks and other Turkic peoples to the west is going to be more pronounced. Instead of a north-south orientation, the Chinese cultural mind may develop a more east-west viewpoint.

Glaciation will become quite extensive in a number of regions: Tibet, the Alps and the Andes in particular. The nascent Tibetan empire may collapse earlier than OTL in this timeline, while the development of Swiss culture is unlikely. In the Andes the glaciers as well as increased dessication caused by altered Pacific winds are going to retard the development of the civilizations there. Desertification will become a problem in a number of places. Central Asia and North-east India will become quite dessicated, with the Thar desert spreading further across the Aravallis toward the Ganges Valley. This will likely reduced the populations of these regions, perhaps even slowing the progress of Islam into both Central Asia and India. It may mean that the migrations of the Turkic peoples become more directly focused on a weaker China, and less likely to migrate into the Middle East (though Khazaria may remain fair game).

Monsoon effects are interesting. Reduced sea temperatures will result in a lessened monsoon effect on India. However, it is likely to become wetter and stormier in southern China and eastern Africa is likely to go through a long wet period (broken by occasional periods of dryness). Typhoons along the southern Chinese coast are going to make the development of maritime culture there more difficult, but not impossible. The North Pacific is going to be warmer than OTL. Throughout the world, there will be slightly lower sea levels as the ice pack slowly expands throughout this era. The Red Sea will become shallower and perhaps more difficult to navigate. In Russia, the expanding ice pack will cause the Ob and the Yenisey to form large lakes.
 
Why this obsession with Islam being the big winner?

It may happen yes, but how will this weather affect the arid area of the Arabian Peninsular? You can't just spell out change in all other areas and then presume Arabia will go bungling ahead as in OTL caravans trotting through the desert; merchants going to Mecca for trade and religious festivals and a certain merchant arriving in Jerusalem (Al-Quds) suddenly gets an inspiration of religious kind deciding to build a new faith.

I wonder no other have pointed to this kind of projecting OTL into a so changed ATL that would normally be kicked off to the ASB forum!

Try looking up this; much more rain in Arabia.

Thus:
DIFFERENT circumstances for its inhabitants! Perhaps much less relying on trade, much less merchants being the prime of society (as it seems to me but that may be a distortion through time and writing), possibly something like India!
So no merchant gets the idea of uniting the tribes of the Arabian desert or setting up a monotheistic religion to unite peoples in faith thus no expansion in the sevent centrury and beyond. No Muslim agricultural revolution in a non-existent arid environment!

Europe:
The German migrations will be much larger! We'll see Germania around the lake/Med. The constant flow on reinforcements from the northern home covered in increasing layers of snow and ice will see to this.
Germans in Sahara, anyone? Germans invading Egypt from the west?

Where will the Huns go? Avars etc.? A lot more peoples may come out of a much colder Central Asia. And may go to a reflooded Takla Makan lake!

This is just what could cooked up in a hurry!:)
 
Europe:
The German migrations will be much larger! We'll see Germania around the lake/Med. The constant flow on reinforcements from the northern home covered in increasing layers of snow and ice will see to this.
Germans in Sahara, anyone? Germans invading Egypt from the west?

Where will the Huns go? Avars etc.? A lot more peoples may come out of a much colder Central Asia. And may go to a reflooded Takla Makan lake!

This is just what could cooked up in a hurry!:)

I agree that Islam would not necessarily be the big winner. But north africa will be, and the mediterrean area.

In OTL Vandals reached Algeria. A starting point of the big change in the campaign could be:

Byzantium defeats the vandals as OTL. But the peace only lasts so long. The Goths have been driven from Spain by the Franks and invade north Africa. The Huns have settled in France and north Italy on the other hand.

More bad luck for the byzantine empire, after long wars peace has been made with Persia, the arabs have been defeated, but the imperial army is unable to defend Egypt from the Longbard invasion.

Perhaps a migration southwards would occur also in Asia? Where are the forefathers of Genghis Khan at this point and what do they do when the horses and camels start to get hungry?
 
Why this obsession with Islam being the big winner?

It may happen yes, but how will this weather affect the arid area of the Arabian Peninsular? You can't just spell out change in all other areas and then presume Arabia will go bungling ahead as in OTL caravans trotting through the desert; merchants going to Mecca for trade and religious festivals and a certain merchant arriving in Jerusalem (Al-Quds) suddenly gets an inspiration of religious kind deciding to build a new faith.

I wonder no other have pointed to this kind of projecting OTL into a so changed ATL that would normally be kicked off to the ASB forum!

Try looking up this; much more rain in Arabia.

One of my working assumptions was that the climatic divergance from OTL occurs roughly midway through the 7th century, after the rise of Islam. I'd prefer to have Islam rise, as removing that event has almost as wide an effect as the climatic changes themselves. I didn't express it very well, however, and indeed I suggested the divergance is after 600. Not so, I consider the divergance to begin, slowly, around 650.

Thus:
DIFFERENT circumstances for its inhabitants! Perhaps much less relying on trade, much less merchants being the prime of society (as it seems to me but that may be a distortion through time and writing), possibly something like India!
So no merchant gets the idea of uniting the tribes of the Arabian desert or setting up a monotheistic religion to unite peoples in faith thus no expansion in the sevent centrury and beyond. No Muslim agricultural revolution in a non-existent arid environment!

Maybe. The difference circumstances will have a very real effect (particularly the lower sea level in the Red Sea, but the rain you mention is also interesting.) But too late to stop the expansion. The varied climatic differences are also unlikely to prevent the globalisation of crops and other factors that led to the Muslim agricultural revolution.

Europe:
The German migrations will be much larger! We'll see Germania around the lake/Med. The constant flow on reinforcements from the northern home covered in increasing layers of snow and ice will see to this.
Germans in Sahara, anyone? Germans invading Egypt from the west?

Maybe. The overall lower population of these regions due to the longer winters may stunt this somewhat, but in general you are quite right about there being different migrations to OTL.

Where will the Huns go? Avars etc.? A lot more peoples may come out of a much colder Central Asia. And may go to a reflooded Takla Makan lake!

This is just what could cooked up in a hurry!:)

All those migrations, will be profoundly altered in the short to medium term. In the longer term, a colder and more desiccated Central Asia is going to produce less nomadic groups.
 
Here's my take on how things could go:

The 7th century
  • The Muslim conquests began after the death of Muhammad in 632. Islam expanded beyond the Arabian Peninsula under the Rashidun Caliphate, though it suffers a terrible civil war during this stage. The Islamic conquest of Persia in the 7th century led to the downfall of the Sassanid Empire. Also conquered during the 6th century were Syria, Armenia, Egypt, and North Africa.
  • During the civil war, the Byzantines attempt to sieze lands lost earlier but the Rashiduns under Hasan expel them once more. The Eastern Empire continued suffering setbacks during the rapid expansion of the Arab Empire. Although life in the countryside deteriorated, Constantinople grew to become the largest and wealthiest city in the world.
  • It is estimated that the Plague of Justinian killed as many as 100 million people across the world. It caused Europe's population to drop by around 60% between 550 and 700 along with increased stormy weather and ever longer winters after 650.
  • The Frankish kingdom is weakened by the inconclusive struggle between the Neustrians and Austrasians, as well as Saxon harassment.
  • In the Iberian Peninsula, the seventh century was the Siglo de Concilios, that is, century of councils, referring to the Councils of Toledo, until the Islamic conquest.
  • Harsha united Northern India, which had reverted to small republics and states after the fall of the Gupta Empire in the 6th century.
  • In China, the Sui Dynasty was replaced by the Tang Dynasty. The Baekje and their Yamato allies defeated the Tang and Silla after winds scattered the Tang fleet, the Silla were subjugated by the Unified Baekje state but the Tang made continued efforts to assert their rule over the region. The Gokturks freed themselves from Tang domination.
  • Global temperature, most especially in Northern and Western Europe but also in northern Asia, began to decrease from the middle of this century.
The 8th century
  • During this century the Middle East, the coast of North Africa, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Frankish kingdoms comes rapidly under Islamic Arab domination. The European expansion of the Arab Empire is famously halted at the Siege of Constantinople by the Bulgarians and the Byzantines, and by the Lombards and Byzantines in northern Italy.
  • Italy and central Europe will become the scene of a protracted struggle between Byzantium and Islam, while northern Europe continues to get colder. The Christian states of northern and central Europe are largely conquered by pagan peoples, with the Avars dominating Moravia and the Saxons absorbing the shattered remaints of the eastern Frankish kingdom.
  • The Byzantine empire becomes strongly iconoclastic, causing a religious crisis with the iconodulistic Latin Church which depends on Byzantine power for protection against Islam.
  • In Bengal, political disruption and breakup of the old orders sees the rise of an aggressively Buddhist republican state, while in the north Tibet declines as glaciation displaces populations and the northern regions occupied by the Tuyuhun and Tangut peoples are absorbed by the Gokturks.
  • Thirty-year Tang invasion of Baekje, which sees much of the royal family flee to Japan and absorbed into the Yamato. An alliance between the Yamato and Goguryeo eventually defeat the Chinese, the peninsula is split between the united Yamato-Baekje rule over the south and Goguryeo rule in the north.
  • The Tang Empire, embarrassed in the east and distracted in the west by a resurgent Gokturk empire, suffers the harassment of Arab and Persian pirates along their southern coast but are largely unable to effectively respond, in addition they lose the rich Sichuan ricelands to the enterprising Nanzhao.
  • In the new world, drought conditions force many Mayans west, and the declining city of Teotihuacan is conquered by Mayan adventurers.
The 9th century
  • The conversion of the Saxons and the Avars to Islam, and much of the Balkans to Christianity as the Rashiduns defeats the Lombards and sieze much of Italy, though Byzantine enclaves remain in the southeast. A succession crisis sees the division of the Rashidun empire into North African and Asian caliphates.
  • Later in the century, the distraction caused by the growing power of the rebellious Berbers gives the Byzantines a chance to sieze Rome, but this leads to the persecution of the iconodulistic Latin Church.
  • Anglo-Saxon sea raiders become a problem along the coast of France, while the Church in the British Isles, isolated from Rome, is becoming more Celtic in its practices.
  • In mainland Europe, the Avars are attacked by the nomadic and pagan Magyars and Pechenegs. There are the beginnings of the lucrative slave trade in Western Europe, as Christians and pagans from Germany and elsewhere are sold south to increasingly powerful and prosperous North Africa.
  • North African and Iberian agriculture is becoming modernised and highly productive, supporting a high population, burgeoning urban centres and expanding control of Mediterranean trade.
  • The Byzantines desperately prosyletise in the Balkans, and the Bulgars are converted to Christianity.
  • The Goguryeo, weakening due to the climate, are forced south and enter into a series of wars with the Baekje-Yamato, but are repulsed and a series of walls constructed across the Korean peninsula. The Goguryeo ally instead with the Khitans and invade the somewhat weakening Tang.
The 10th century
  • First use of gunpowder in war in China, as the Tang dynasty finally disintegrates. Goguryeons, Gokturks, Khitans, Nanzhao and Chinese warlords struggle over the spoils, while Baekje-Yamato adopt a divide and rule policy.
  • The Christian Bulgarians and Croatians destroy the Muslim Avars in a decades-long conflagaration, but then fall to fighting between themselves.
  • Rome is retaken by North Africans, once again isolating the Holy See from Constantinople (the Latin Christians largely welcomed the return of Islamic rule, however, as it ended the persecution of iconodules).
  • Increasing aridity in Central Asia pushes the Silk Road trade routes north and south, to the benefit of Khazaria and Tamil merchants.
  • Magyars conquer the pagan peoples of Germany but their advance is halted by the Saxons, who have taken control of France and Northern Italy and formed an emirate under the Ottonids.
  • In Britain, Mercia has become the most powerful and navally-oriented state, enjoying the bountiful cod and herring catch off the coast of England which allows a population expansion that fuels the ever-expanding sea raids of the Anglo-Saxons, while the less navally inclined Northumbria struggles with the migrations of Pictish reindeer herders and the Welsh.
 
One of my working assumptions was that the climatic divergance from OTL occurs roughly midway through the 7th century, after the rise of Islam. I'd prefer to have Islam rise, as removing that event has almost as wide an effect as the climatic changes themselves. I didn't express it very well, however, and indeed I suggested the divergance is after 600. Not so, I consider the divergance to begin, slowly, around 650.

You did mention this cold period beginning in 400 in the OP! Its not nice to change rules once the games going! :mad: Thats called a refined way of cheating! ;)

Maybe. The overall lower population of these regions due to the longer winters may stunt this somewhat, but in general you are quite right about there being different migrations to OTL.

All those migrations, will be profoundly altered in the short to medium term. In the longer term, a colder and more desiccated Central Asia is going to produce less nomadic groups.

Found the interesting piece - so much more migration is possible.
Of course a longer colder period is going in the long run is going to produce less nomadig groups as they all are coming in a steady stream until the source dries out due to lasting cold and drought! Not much to feed horses on in such a scenario (and they need lots of water too).

And they you get your Islam wank as there is no warm 700's to stall expansion in France etc. Nice. :p
 
  • The Tang Empire, embarrassed in the east and distracted in the west by a resurgent Gokturk empire, suffers the harassment of Arab and Persian pirates along their southern coast but are largely unable to effectively respond, in addition they lose the rich Sichuan ricelands to the enterprising Nanzhao.

What ??? :eek:
 
You did mention this cold period beginning in 400 in the OP! Its not nice to change rules once the games going! :mad: Thats called a refined way of cheating! ;)

True, but that period was cold in OTL anyway. It's the warm period after 800 that has been altered. The shift occurs roughly in between, with enough leeway that keeping Islam and butterflying it away are both acceptable options.

Ridwan Asher said:

That was actually from the original Armenian Genocide source that I used, except the bit about the Chinese unable to respond.
 
True, but that period was cold in OTL anyway. It's the warm period after 800 that has been altered. The shift occurs roughly in between, with enough leeway that keeping Islam and butterflying it away are both acceptable options.

I'm leaving it all up to you! :)
 
You did mention this cold period beginning in 400 in the OP! Its not nice to change rules once the games going! :mad: Thats called a refined way of cheating! ;)

Actually, what he is doing is uniting two OTL cold periods (the Migration Period Cold Period of c. 400-800 AD and the Little Ice Age of c. 1300-1800 AD) into one LONG cold period lasting from 400-1800 AD, by eliminating the intervening warm period. The fault here is not his...it is yours for not understanding the POD. :cool:
 
Actually, what he is doing is uniting two OTL cold periods (the Migration Period Cold Period of c. 400-800 AD and the Little Ice Age of c. 1300-1800 AD) into one LONG cold period lasting from 400-1800 AD, by eliminating the intervening warm period. The fault here is not his...it is yours for not understanding the POD. :cool:

Well actually I did understand that he was extending the migration period in the OP but he failed to make clear that his jump off was in the 8. century not the 5. century. (post #16) hence my remarks on development of Islam.
What I did point out was a prolonged cold may result in more rainfall in Arabia thus changing society and perhaps making for Islam not to arise.

To keep up with rising of Islam tormsen changes his POD in the OP of 400 to 700 in post #7. ;)

But as already stated in post #17 I leave it up to tormsen - go harass him!
 
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