A Shift in Priorities

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by wietze

nothing new there, at times that also seems the case within NATO, us trying to screw europe and other way round. but its from all times.

my thought of the whole thing is even though the population isnt as hostile on the Philippines (Not yet anyways), the only place usable for the fleet is the naval base, the rest of the islands are not.

And for the population right now there is no way back, the us ittl has a very bad track record (iceland, the recent massacres on the mainland), so they know what to expect. the total level of hate might me much lower, but from a military point of view its still enemy terrain. Sooner or later the supplies are going to run out, and resupply from the mainland might be a tad tricky at the moment.

About the whole situation, I am certain that rast will surprise us with something cunning

The only reason Japan agreed to become allied with China is because of the Chita debacle and the fact that they would have also Korea if Chaing Zhongzheng hadn't backstabbed Syngman Rhee. Plus, the reason that Japan was able to get the upper hand in the relationship is that they profitted after China wasted away its armies in Uighurstan. Trust me, the distrust between China and Japan goes beyond the mere spats that take place between NATO members. China would backstab Japan the moment it becomes convenient for them, and vice versa. Right now, China's content to let Japan overstretch itself in Hawaii and bring the US' wrath upon Japan as well to put the Japanese in a more vulnerable position.

As for the ports you metnion, if the US would have trouble reaching those places with warships, then the Japanese can't use those places either. You can't have your cake and eat it as well. Plus, if the supply situation is bad for the US, its going to be even worse for the Japanese. If things go wrong, its not like Japan can withdraw to nearby Midway or Guam or Wake Island. Those still belong in US territory, and there's no way Japan can use these unless they openly declare war.

[Expat]

Originally Posted by Bmao

If these Asian Americans who immigrated to Hawaii actually are professionals and small business owners, then they're actually more likely to be more loyal to the US, than the ones who are mostly disloyal are the ones who are working in the fields and being treated like shit by the Big 5. Furthermore, since they had immigrated from the mainland US, they're not as likely to be as receptive to the issues facing the Hawaiian rebels.

Except the reason they're leaving is because they're disgruntled about their treatment by other US citizens. They may not want to make waves in Hawaii, but they're hardly going to stand up in support of the US government. It just further increases the "neutral" population, which helps those in the streets in the end.

I also think that 80-85% of the Asian population is way too high. While protesting in the streets is one thing, actually declaring independence is a whole new step that the recent Asian American immigrants wouldn't approve of. So I emphasize, while I can envision about 80-85% of the Asian population working in the plantations being receptive to independence, given they have nothing to lose, I am highly skeptical that number is same for the more affluent Asian Americans in Hawaii. For example, in my family, which comprise of fairly affluent Asian Americans, while they're socially liberal they're as fiscally conservative as any white businessmen you'd find on wall street, and I suspect that much of the middle class and especially the few affluent Asian Americans on Hawaii may have been in cahoots with the Big 5. Think of it this way, while the US situation is pretty crumming, what sort of economic prospects does an 'independant' Hawaii have, especially when you'll have the US, the biggest trading parter of Hawaii, basically sanctioning you?

I've said this already, but 80-85% is NOT the level of support for independence. Those supporting independence are likely in the minority at the start of the campaign. The overwhelming support is for change of *some kind* which is what kicks the whole thing off. You and I are in agreement that a definitive independence movement would have failed if those were the only people in the streets on January 16th.

Any financial arrangement the Asian American community has with the Big 5 is completely in the toilet at the time the protests turn into a general movement. The Big 5 are slashing production by obscene margins. Small business owners have no one to sell to if the workers aren't buying. The economy of Hawaii is being brought to a stand still while those in the Big 5 move into a compound to wait out the labor unrest they know is coming.

To reiterate: I understand this does not turn middle class Asian Americans into pro-independence insurgents. But it does remove any trace of loyalty to the existing structure *at the very least.* At most it might set them marching in the streets for reform or perhaps representation in Washington.

I also expect the student body to be more split than you realize. The college students are more likely to be affluent, and while they would probably protest against the treatment they're getting from white authorities, since they likely came from the mainland, they're also more likely to be loyal to the US. Do these middle class Asian Americans really have that much solidarity with the ones working in the fields, much less the foreigners of Japan?

First off, the foreigners of Japan do not enter into it at the start. I doubt one out of a thousand is saying, "let's overthrow the US and invite in Japan!"

Second, only the core of the student movement was protesting with the workers before January 16th. The movement grew as a peace movement, which made it incredibly attractive to a large number of students living in uncertain times. The hope of being able improve things without violence was incredibly attractive. It's certain that divisions existed in the group from the start- an independence faction, a statehood faction, a territory with self-determination faction. But mainly they were committed to social justice and for the year (or less) they have been in existence have managed to avoid a split. Mainly because honestly anything should be able to last a year before it gets torn apart.

Obviously after people took to the streets- once again so we're clear, NOT to declare independence, just to protest- things got out of hand as far as a lot of people are concerned. Blame the workers for the majority of the violence.

Furthermore, don't underestimate how the fact that the Japanese military is actually getting involved damages the credibility of the Hawaiian rebels actually being an independence movement. They probably would have been more sympathetic had they not gotten involved, but once they did there's the scepter that by siding with the Hawaiians you're also siding with foreigners. So all in all, I think something like 60% of those of Asian descent supporting the rebels is a closer number than the 80-85% you argue.

I don't underestimate it at all and I agree with you that it's going to cause problems, if Japanese aid is successful. You and I can disagree on the scale, but I would say that it's at least a "pretty big" problem.

Plus, given that perhaps 95% of the whites on Hawaii would be dead set against Hawaiian independance to begin with, once the Japanese military gets involved that probably eliminates the possibility of any sane white person (other than the Portuguese perhaps) supporting the rebels.

Portuguese, hippies, a few Grunt-like vets who chose Hawaii over the desert, and a fringe of the rest. Of course a large majority of the whites (who number less than 50,000 and that's including the Portuguese) are already within the US perimeter. So again, I think we're agreed here, mostly.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Expat

Except the reason they're leaving is because they're disgruntled about their treatment by other US citizens. They may not want to make waves in Hawaii, but they're hardly going to stand up in support of the US government. It just further increases the "neutral" population, which helps those in the streets in the end.

I've said this already, but 80-85% is NOT the level of support for independence. Those supporting independence are likely in the minority at the start of the campaign. The overwhelming support is for change of *some kind* which is what kicks the whole thing off. You and I are in agreement that a definitive independence movement would have failed if those were the only people in the streets on January 16th.

All right then. I get you on that part, about the 80-85% supporting some kind of change to the system and that the Big 5 need to change thing, however what I interpreted these protests was that these were in the same context as those back on the mainland, like the grunts, the various rural movements in the midwest, etc., but only because Hawaii already had a developed independence movement, and that there already were a segment of the Japanese population more sympathetic to Japan than the USA, that these rebels were able to exploit these grievances to form a viable independence movement.

Originally Posted by Expat

Any financial arrangement the Asian American community has with the Big 5 is completely in the toilet at the time the protests turn into a general movement. The Big 5 are slashing production by obscene margins. Small business owners have no one to sell to if the workers aren't buying. The economy of Hawaii is being brought to a stand still while those in the Big 5 move into a compound to wait out the labor unrest they know is coming.

To reiterate: I understand this does not turn middle class Asian Americans into pro-independence insurgents. But it does remove any trace of loyalty to the existing structure *at the very least.* At most it might set them marching in the streets for reform or perhaps representation in Washington.

Judging from the comments of the other members stating how 'Japan is genius going after Hawaii!!' and 'it'll be just like the Phillippines' I got the impression that you shared those views. Sorry if I was mistaken in that regard.

So again, I think we're both in agreement that the vast majority of the American public, whether they be white, asian, black, latino, etc, view current political system and the market capitalism that led to the crash as unviable now, as McAdoo himself is pretty much universally hated and the confidence in the government itself at an all time low. And again, I think that many readers here are mistaking this lack of confidence in the current US political system and its government as that the US public is ready to secede at any moment, which is not true.

Originally Posted by Expat

First off, the foreigners of Japan do not enter into it at the start. I doubt one out of a thousand is saying, "let's overthrow the US and invite in Japan!"

Second, only the core of the student movement was protesting with the workers before January 16th. The movement grew as a peace movement, which made it incredibly attractive to a large number of students living in uncertain times. The hope of being able improve things without violence was incredibly attractive. It's certain that divisions existed in the group from the start- an independence faction, a statehood faction, a territory with self-determination faction. But mainly they were committed to social justice and for the year (or less) they have been in existence have managed to avoid a split. Mainly because honestly anything should be able to last a year before it gets torn apart.

Obviously after people took to the streets- once again so we're clear, NOT to declare independence, just to protest- things got out of hand as far as a lot of people are concerned. Blame the workers for the majority of the violence.

I don't underestimate it at all and I agree with you that it's going to cause problems, if Japanese aid is successful. You and I can disagree on the scale, but I would say that it's at least a "pretty big" problem.

Portuguese, hippies, a few Grunt-like vets who chose Hawaii over the desert, and a fringe of the rest. Of course a large majority of the whites (who number less than 50,000 and that's including the Portuguese) are already within the US perimeter. So again, I think we're agreed here, mostly.

I think the Japanese got involved because they came across with the mistaken belief that the Hawaiian rebels actually spoke for the vast majority of the people of Hawaii and mistakenly compared the situation to the Phillipines, and that a lot of the posters here are doing the same. Furthermore, because of the ugly performance of the US in the Phillippines, the Japanese have also come to the mistaken belief that the US won't fight effectively.

When the US were fighting in the Phillippines, it was seen as a place that was far away with a whole bunch of ungrateful brown people, but the difference with Hawaii is that the US public will be shocked into a much stronger sense of urgency now that actual US territory is under a genuine threat, and that actual white Americans are in danger as well, and as a result Japan will underestimate the US' resolve. The Japanese were better off just sticking with the Phillippines and letting the US destroy itself, as the old saying goes; never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake; but now they threw themselves into the picture and gave the US an enemy they could focus on and cause the US populace to partly put aside the myriad problems back home. I'm not saying its like a post-Pearl harbor type resolve, but nonetheless by poking around in Hawaii they shook the hornets nest.

[Josephus]

When the US were fighting in the Phillippines, it was seen as a place that was far away with a whole bunch of ungrateful brown people, but the difference with Hawaii is that the US public will be shocked into a much stronger sense of urgency now that actual US territory is under a genuine threat, and that actual white Americans are in danger as well, and as a result Japan will underestimate the US' resolve. The Japanese were better off just sticking with the Phillippines and letting the US destroy itself, as the old saying goes; never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake; but now they threw themselves into the picture and gave the US an enemy they could focus on and cause the US populace to partly put aside the myriad problems back home. I'm not saying its like a post-Pearl harbor type resolve, but nonetheless by poking around in Hawaii they shook the hornets nest.

The elites, sure. But I think the general populace will be pretty apathetic. The 'X gooks have attacked us! We must rally behind the Fuhr... President!' line has been used too often to be believeable, especially in a time that is not as saturated by media bombardment. Hawaii is far away, and most people will have no investments there.

Also, morale in the Fleet may be quite low, after the desasters of the Atlantic war and the Philippine quagmire. Perhaps a sailor's revolt a la Kiel or Kronshtadt could be in the cards.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Josephus

The elites, sure. But I think the general populace will be pretty apathetic. The 'X gooks have attacked us! We must rally behind the Fuhr... President!' line has been used too often to be believeable, especially in a time that is not as saturated by media bombardment. Hawaii is far away, and most people will have no investments there.

Also, morale in the Fleet may be quite low, after the desasters of the Atlantic war and the Philippine quagmire. Perhaps a sailor's revolt a la Kiel or Kronshtadt could be in the cards.

That's why people were apathetic when Pearl Harbor was attacked right? Here's what I think; in OTL had the Japanese attacked the Phillippines, the US probably would have went to war, but there would definitely have not been the same sense of urgency or the fear that the US itself was under threat. In this case, its not a fair comparison since there is much more disunity and distrust in government, but Japanese warships appearing right off the shore of Hawaii and making few efforts to hide their ill intensions really forms a more tangible threat. The vast majority of the public still hate McAdoo, and the corporations and the Hawaiian Big 5, but just because you don't like who is running the show doesn't mean you can't be patriotic to the country at large. The Phillippines are definitely far away, but Hawaii certainly isn't that far in the minds of the people from the West Coast, and last I checked California, Oregon and Washington state were part of the US.

Furthermore, when the Hawaiians declared their independance, its already been established there's already been 4 days of fighting on the islands, and that white people have been killed in the fighting, which is different from when the US was fighting in the faraway Phillippines, which is full of ungrateful brown people nobody cares about and such, or getting drugged up fighting greasers in Mexico. The argument that yeah, only the elites care, applies to places like Cuba and such, where the owners have big plantations and fighting for a vague cause like the Monroe Doctrine, so the common citizenry of the US doesn't really care. I emphasize again, a lot of people in Hawaii still want to be US citizens whose lives are in danger, and unlike the misadventures in the Phillippines or Mexico this is a genuine instance of national defense. Morales going to be high, for fear of what could happen to people loyal to the US by the Hawaiian rebels should they fail.

[rast]

You might as well stand and fight because if you run, you will only die tired.
(Samurai wisdom)

Admiral Hyakutake Gengō was in an awkward predicament. – Quite obviously, his government had misjudged the situation. Believing that the US Administration was paralysed by all those recent tumultuous events on the North American continent, they had attempted to score on Hawaii and to initiate a special relationship, aiming at adding the islands to the ‘little friends’. Bringing humanitarian relief to the isles, which had seen a sharp blaze of violence and destruction, certainly was a good idea, but having this relief be accompanied by the Rengō Kantai in retrospect had to be called foolish. If the Amerika-Jin turned away some civil freighters, one could shrug ones shoulders and keep doing business as usual. But having the Rengō Kantai snubbed, was a horse of quite another colour.

Hyakutake knew that Fleet Admiral Prince Fushimi Hiroyasu, the Chief of the Naval General Staff of the Imperial Japanese Navy, had pressed for this show of force. “We must demonstrate to them that we are able to protect them, if they join our sphere of influence.” This had sounded good, back then when the plans for what finally became Operation Hosa (Assistance) had been pondered for the first time – long before the Hawaiian National Congress had declared independence. But today, in the face of a rabid American Admiral it no longer sounded any good... – And this Admiral Bagley was no nobody; he had a sound reputation in naval circles – not only in Japan. Quite an impressive combat experience this man had accumulated; one of those dangerous types who actually did learn from failure – and from success...

Hyakutake was rather uncertain whether Bagley really would do what he had threatened to do, but he also had no intention to find out. He had no orders to start a big war. – But somehow he had to find a way to save face, his face, the Japanese Navy’s face, and Japan’s face. – At least, he had good intelligence about the situation between the Amerika-Jin and the Hawaiians. There were not only many Japanese agents on the islands; some factions – and there seemed to be quite a lot of them – were voluntarily co-operating with the Japanese consulate. Therefore, Hyakutake had a vivid picture of what had happened – and who stood for what on the isles.

About Bagley’s fleet, however, Hyakutake had only scant data. One knew, of course, which vessels the Amerika-Jin had employed at the Philippines, but the actual composition of the force awaiting him would come as a surprise. Aerial reconnaissance didn’t work, the US pilots were masters in pushing away aircraft in risky manoeuvres. There already had been one mid-air collision, a ‘regrettable accident’; but – so far – the Amerika-Jin were refraining from using their guns. – Interpolating from the US naval forces that had been engaged at the Philippines, Bagley might have six large fleet carriers, something like twenty-five escort carriers, eight battleships and a huge number of cruisers and destroyers. The proximity of Pearl Harbor also made it probable that a considerable swarm of submarines was around.

His battle cruisers and battleships were superior in number to the US big gun ships. But Bagley definitely had more carrier-borne aircraft – and, in all probability, could also count on powerful land-based aeroplanes in a magnitude of fifty or sixty units. About the cruisers and destroyers, Hyakutake could only guess. The Amerika-Jin had built several hundreds of them, but had also taken considerable punishment at the Philippines – and, of course, had not denuded their home waters completely. So, in all likelihood, numbers might be about even. – Unfortunately, the new Type 93 torpedo, which would have given his lighter vessels a striking combat power, had not yet been introduced into fleet service.

This was the state of affairs with Hyakutake pacing the bridge of his flagship, the battle wagon Higo, when a radio message from Tokyo arrived:
“Nippon – and all nations of East Asian League – recognise independence of Hawaiian State. Ambassador on his way in long range aircraft. – Negotiations with USA ongoing in Washington. – Your task: Protect rights of Nippon in Hawaiian Waters, but avoid armed conflict with US forces. Use of violence only approved in self-defence. Signed: Ushida, Foreign Minister – Counter-signed: Nakajima, Prime Minister – Forwarded: Prince Fushimi, Fleet Admiral”

[Monty Burns]

All that makes more sense now. The Japanese obviously misinterpreted the situation and made a daring move, that backfired massively. Bagley, on the other side, also made quite a daring move - is there even somebody around in Washington or elsewhere who could decide on war? Not to mention that people who just saw snipers taking out national guards on the main street of their hometown or Grunts kidnapping police officials won't care that much about far away islands, even if Whites are killed there (the whites killed on their doorsteps are a more pressing problem).

Politicians in Washington made up a giant mess of the US, and Japanese politicians send their fleet into a giant mess (seemingly without Chinese approval - bad move!). Let's see how that works out...

[Expat]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

All that makes more sense now. The Japanese obviously misinterpreted the situation and made a daring move, that backfired massively. Bagley, on the other side, also made quite a daring move - is there even somebody around in Washington or elsewhere who could decide on war? Not to mention that people who just saw snipers taking out national guards on the main street of their hometown or Grunts kidnapping police officials won't care that much about far away islands, even if Whites are killed there (the whites killed on their doorsteps are a more pressing problem).

Politicians in Washington made up a giant mess of the US, and Japanese politicians send their fleet into a giant mess (seemingly without Chinese approval - bad move!). Let's see how that works out...

Agreed on all points. Though it does seem they have official Chinese approval now.

If the Hawaiians do know Japan has a fleet on its way, that's another reason for people to reinforce their support of the independence movement. Those who don't want to be dominated by Japan will want to present a strong front when they arrive.

For entertainment's sake, another massive naval battle would be great!

[Josephus]

That's why people were apathetic when Pearl Harbor was attacked right?

Quite a different thing. Pearl Harbour came after decades of peace. But here, the boy in Washington has cried 'Wolf!' almost constantly over the past 20 years. It should've worn thin.

...but just because you don't like who is running the show doesn't mean you can't be patriotic to the country at large.

That depends on public perception. To state it cynically: In effect, who is running the show IS the country. A sucessful administration, however, is able to veil that fact and create the illusion that the public benefits from their rule. The McAdoo crowd, however, has made it crystal clear that all benefits will go to their war profiteer and robber baron buddies, and if the proles don't like it, they can eat ca... bayonets. I am of the optimistic opinion that most people will question repeatedly invoked patriotism, if they get screwed over again and again that way.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Expat

Agreed on all points. Though it does seem they have official Chinese approval now.

If the Hawaiians do know Japan has a fleet on its way, that's another reason for people to reinforce their support of the independence movement. Those who don't want to be dominated by Japan will want to present a strong front when they arrive.

For entertainment's sake, another massive naval battle would be great!

The fact that Japan has Chinese approval of an operation that has quickly become messy for Japan makes me question China's motives. While China is part of the alliance, and is content to allow the Japanese to use their navy to protect China from any threats in the Pacific, I also don't think that China would want Japan to grow too powerful and completely dominate the Pacific, so as to become the clearly dominant partner of the relationship. So I think that China is betting on Japan messing up, and I'm surprised given Japan's dealings with China in the past that they wouldn't have been more skeptical of the motives behind Chinese support in this effort. If Japan were to get into a war with the United States, wouldn't that put them in a vulnerable position and force them to rely more and more on China for resources?

In terms of Japanese spies, while there are certainly a number of them in Hawaii, given the number of people on Hawaii that want to stay part of the US, what about the possibility of double agents? Of Japanese who claim to support Hawaiian independence but are providing the Japanese with false information, and then forwarding to the US military of the various spy networks the Japanese are relying upon? The most likely spies are those who originally protested against the Big 5, but once the whole spectacle of Hawaiian independence went down along with Japanese intervention they turned away from that idea and are now double agents.

I can argue that those on the east coast wouldn't care much about what happens in Hawaii, but those on the West Coast certainly would. Imagine, if Japan were to take Pearl Harbor, what's stopping them from patrolling outside the waters of the West Coast? Of course, that's not necessarily true, but that'll be the perception.

In terms of the Japanese recognizing Hawaiian independence, its more than likely the mlitarists were involved in influencing the Prime Minister in its decision. Japan has seen a recent string of successes in the 30s, and unlike the fleet admiral, the governor back in Japan perceives that the Hawaiians would full-heartedly support indepence and that it'll be like the Phillippines and doesn't know the facts on the ground.

[Expat]

Re: double agents, it's certainly possible. Up to Hoover to recruit them, I guess. Or perhaps some native impulse takes hold.

Then of course there's the question of whether the Hawaiians will set anybody to spy on the Japanese spies. It's not clear how much confidence the Hawaiians have in their own state, though. You'd need someone to say, "ok, once the US battle fleet is no longer threatening us, then we have to deal with the Japanese," in order to think about double agents. Who's honestly looking beyond the US battle fleet right now? Maybe someone, maybe no one.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Expat

Re: double agents, it's certainly possible. Up to Hoover to recruit them, I guess. Or perhaps some native impulse takes hold.

Then of course there's the question of whether the Hawaiians will set anybody to spy on the Japanese spies. It's not clear how much confidence the Hawaiians have in their own state, though. You'd need someone to say, "ok, once the US battle fleet is no longer threatening us, then we have to deal with the Japanese," in order to think about double agents. Who's honestly looking beyond the US battle fleet right now? Maybe someone, maybe no one.

It was a pretty open secret for a long time that the Hawaiian Japanese were spying for Japan, in fact in OTL the Naval authorities were paranoid about it, such as setting up their planes side by side out in the open of Hickam airfield to prevent sabotage and such paranoia is going to be even more intense. So if there are any formal loyalist spy netwoks in Hawaii, they were probably set up by the naval authorities, although right now, I think much of it is happening on an informal basis. While the US governing body is mostly a broken institution, the same can't be said for its spy agencies, which due to the recent chaos in the US would probably be stronger than ever.



Now, I'm going to tangent onto another subject now. Again, its about Korea, and here how this applies. Right now, Japan is professing itself the savior of the Asian peoples, promoting independence and self rule from colonial oppressors. Sooner or later, news that Japan is doing this will get back to the Koreans, who will, like always, ask whether this means that they will get self rule as well. Of course, right now, Korea is being ruled in a draconian manner, taken through naked military aggression and its culture and people oppressed, often through periodic massacre.

Part of me thinks that China is supporting the Japanese adventure in Hawaii so that they can catch Japan on the Korean issue later. So now, if China were to call out Japan that since it supported independence for the Phillippinos and then the Hawaiians, and did so in a very public manner, then questions will then arise as to whether this should apply to Korea as well.

Now, Japan is caught in a quandary. If they get called out and continue the type of rule they've employed in Korea, then they'd be called hypocrites and completely undermine the entire agenda that they'd been previously trumpeting, which was supposedly freedom and self-rule for Asian peoples. For an outside observer, one would logically think that to save face that Japan would grant Korea self rule, but selling that to the Japanese public would be like a US presidential candidate campaigning on a platform of Civil Rights, not to mention that they'd probably be overthrown before they can even consider such a policy. Japanese prejudice against Koreans is as deep or even deeper than the White Americans prejudice against blacks, and attitudes such as these are not so easily changed. There's also foreign policy implications, considering the ambitions of Russia and China, plus the fact that many Japanese live in Korea and that in an independant Korea the Japanese population would probably be subject to reprisals and such.

The reason I'm bringing this up is the fact that Japan is publically and loudly stating its policy to promote Asian self-government and independence, but its policy in Korea is anything but, and that this Korean issue could undermine Japan's entire foreign policy and public relations efforts. The Phillippines and Hawaiian adventures open up this huge can of worms for Japan, and then we'll find out whether Japan really puts its money where its mouth is concerning self-government for all Asiatic peoples.

[rast]

Originally Posted by Bmao

Now, I'm going to tangent onto another subject now. Again, its about Korea.

Yes, but... - In OTL, the northern part of Korea got some improvements, but the lion's share went to Manshu-Koko. - In TTL, all the Japanese effort - since more than 10 years - goes to Korea. Because most Japanese don't like to live abroad - and don't like foreigners (explicitly: Koreans) in Japan, the Zaibatsus have exported their plants to the location where the workers are, i.e.: Korea. - Even if the Koreans don't like it, and quite many don't, they're getting a massive uplift.
That this may trigger an increase in Chinese covetousness is quite another story. And yes, Korea is Japan's Achilles heel...

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by rast

Yes, but... - In OTL, the northern part of Korea got some improvements, but the lion's share went to Manshu-Koko. - In TTL, all the Japanese effort - since more than 10 years - goes to Korea. Because most Japanese don't like to live abroad - and don't like foreigners (explicitly: Koreans) in Japan, the Zaibatsus have exported their plants to the location where the workers are, i.e.: Korea. - Even if the Koreans don't like it, and quite many don't, they're getting a massive uplift.
That this may trigger an increase in Chinese covetousness is quite another story. And yes, Korea is Japan's Achilles heel...

Saying that Korea is getting a massive uplift I think is disingenuous, considering Korea had its own independant country and functioning government instututions before Japan took over, and its also like saying that the US was uplifting Latin America by doing business there.

For instance North Korea was developed precisely for the purpose of Japan's war industry and nothing else, and any infrastructure built in Korea would be similarly built to be an extractive economy. I think it would be valid to say that the Zaibatsus would be structured very similarly to the US megacorporations ITTL, they are technically different firms but they collaborate as oligarchies and are in cahoots with the central government and the military.

Also, why waste those resources on losers like the Koreans when those resources can be shipped back to Japan for the betterment of the Japanese people? Besides, if anything the Zaibatsus would want to keep costs down so they can make a bigger profit. Furthermore, if you actually educate these people (that is, actually telling them about Korean history rather than making efforts to repress it) they'll start to demand for rights and then inevitably indepedence and that's not what Japan wants.

The US capitalists don't like to live in the Carribbean or elsewhere in Latin America, which were basically colonies in all but name, and they built factories there, and the security of these places were maintained by mercenaries/local elites who would be despised by the vast majority of the population. When that fails, they bring in the marines to Kill all, burn all, loot all.

As for Chinese designs, I never did say that the Chinese would be interested in freeing Korea from the Japanese yoke out of the goodness of their hearts. Don't forget, Chiang Zhongzheng was perfectly willing to stab Syngman Rhee's movement in the back when Japan desperately made that deal to give them back Taiwan in exchange for allowing Japan a free hand in Korea. So while the Koreans despise the Japanese, they don't necessarily like China either.

Thus, the reason why I think China would be interested in being the 'champion' of Korean 'independence' is that Japan's claim of being the leader of Asian liberty would look ludicrous contrasted with their actual policy in Korea, and now if China champions Koreas 'freedom' then they'd be the ones perceived as being the leading country of the Asian Alliance in liberty for all Asians and the one that countries like the Phillippines, Malaysia, etc look toward rather than Japan.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Bmao

Saying that Korea is getting a massive uplift I think is disingenuous, considering Korea had its own independant country and functioning government instututions before Japan took over, and its also like saying that the US was uplifting Latin America by doing business there.

Investment will benefit them, though. Even if the infrastructure were developped only for the extraction of raw materials for war that would help - and rasts' post doesn#T hint that way, nor would Japan ITTL have such interests.

In any case, you're absolutely right that Japan championing independence and liberty in teh Philippines and Hawaii does not fit with what they do in Korea - even if they have a better policy there and actually increase the standard of living and promote industrialization and infrastructure there. But quite frankly double standards in politics aren't rare. For the Philippines it wasn't important what the Japanese or Chinese said, but what they (covertly) did: they gave them the equipment needed to drive the Amis out. For Hawaii it's not important why the Japanese are there (officially: liberty and humanitarian aid. Actual: gambling on driving out the Amis). The question is whether they'll fight.

[rast]

A concise overview of the capital ships of the US Navy and the Imperial Japanese Navy in early 1936:

US Navy
Modern battleships in fleet service: BB-55 South Carolina, BB-56 Michigan, B-57 Delaware, BB-58 North Dakota, BB-59 Florida, BB-60 Utah, BB-61 Wyoming, BB-62 Arkansas, BB-64 Texas.
Modern battleships laid down 1934, not yet launched or commissioned: BB-65 Nevada, BB-66 Oklahoma, BB-67 Pennsylvania, BB-68 Idaho, B-69 Tennessee, B-70 Colorado.
Modern battleships laid down 1935, far from finished: BB-71 Maryland, BB-72 West Virginia, BB-73 Washington, BB-74 South Dakota, BB-75 Indiana, BB-76 Montana.
Older battleships, relegated to training duties: BB-39 Arizona, BB-40 New Mexico, BB-41 Mississippi, BB-44 California.
Battlecruisers in fleet service: CC-2 Constellation, CC-4 Ranger, CC-5 Constitution.
Large fleet carriers: CV-2 Wasp, CV-3 Hornet, CV-4 Bumblebee, CV-5 Dragonfly, CV-7 Mosquito, CV-9 Blackfly, CV-10 Tsetse, CV-11 Weevil.
Escort carriers: different types in service, 46 in all.

Imperial Japanese Navy
Modern battleships in fleet service: Nagato, Mutsu, Tosa, Kaga, Awaji, Imashiro, Sanuki, Kazusa, Higo, Tamba, Chishima, Dewa.
Modern battleships not yet commissioned: Otaru, Sagami, Bingo.
Modern battle cruisers in fleet service: Kongō, Haruna, Amagi, Akagi, Atago, Takao, Myōkō, Chōkai, Sasebo, Yokosuka, Tsushima.
Modern battle cruisers not yet commissioned: Anta, Otake, Izumo.
Older battleships decommissioned: Kawachi, Settsu, Satsuma, Aki.
Older battleships held in reserve status: Fusō, Yamashiro, Ise, Hyūga.
Older battle cruisers decommissioned: Ikoma, Ibuki, Kurama.
Large fleet carriers: Washi, Kamome, Jinsho, Umigarasu, Tsuru, Nosuri, Zuku.
Large fleet carriers not yet commissioned: Haitaka, U.
Escort carriers: Hōshō, Taka, Ahōdori, Akizu, Hachi, Ka, Hai, Chō, Tsubakura, Yamagara.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

Investment will benefit them, though. Even if the infrastructure were developped only for the extraction of raw materials for war that would help - and rasts' post doesn#T hint that way, nor would Japan ITTL have such interests.

In any case, you're absolutely right that Japan championing independence and liberty in teh Philippines and Hawaii does not fit with what they do in Korea - even if they have a better policy there and actually increase the standard of living and promote industrialization and infrastructure there. But quite frankly double standards in politics aren't rare. For the Philippines it wasn't important what the Japanese or Chinese said, but what they (covertly) did: they gave them the equipment needed to drive the Amis out. For Hawaii it's not important why the Japanese are there (officially: liberty and humanitarian aid. Actual: gambling on driving out the Amis). The question is whether they'll fight.

If you look at the trend of TTL, top down economics has shown a tendency to fail. Also, while the Japanese have politically moved away from being completely dominated by the military to having a civilian government, while the Japanese government would say one thing about increasing the standard of living for the Koreans, when actually put into practice, given the way that the Zaibatsu are structured and the way they conduct business, they'd focus on maximizing profits, keeping labor costs down to the bare minimum, constructing infrastructure in such a manner that it facilitates the extraction of resources, and ensuring that the fruits of Korean labor benefit Japan rather than the Koreans. Nowhere in the timeline was there ever a mention that the way the economy is structured was reformed from OTL, that the Zaibatsu have become any less of an oligopoly.

The Japanese civilian government can't afford to alienate any of the Big 4 Companies; Sumitomo, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Yasuda, because if they do the economy would collapse or they could be thrown out of power. Furthermore, the militarist element was basically given a free hand to be as brutal as necessary in Korea, and considering how integrated the military establishment is with the Zaibatsu that gives me further reason to believe that most likely while the Japanese government may preach that they're desiring to uplift the Koreans, the reality is completely different.

Again, as for China and Japan's motivations in Hawaii, for China its very easy for them to say they support Hawaiian 'independence' because it makes them look good and they can simply make money off the Japanese. While it is in China's interests in keeping the Western Pacific free of foreign influence, and the Japanese Navy is best equipped to do that, at the same time I find it highly doubtful that they want the Japanese to dominate the Pacific either.

Japan, I think, should have been suspicious of the reasons that China may have been supporting the Hawaiian adventure. Once the US was gone from the Phillippines, Japan basically had everything they needed to promote a prosperous economic zone and the US was in the middle of shooting itself in the foot in Hawaii. However, Japan got greedy, and I think were starting to get a case of victory disease, and I think that China might have realized as such and wanted to encourage the Japanese into a situation where they'd overreach.

I think we also have to explore the context of why Japan made the decision to intervene in Hawaii. The civilian government, which has been described as favoring a prudent foreign policy of restraint, would have been the group most likely to see the potential pitfalls in intervening - War with the US, overextension of its supply lines, committing itself to an ideological stance of freedom that contradicts its Korea policy, so my conclusion is that a combination of the militarists and the Zaibatsu pushed for it.

The Zaibatsu are looking at this from an opportunity for commercial expansion, and that any free Hawaii that results would be in a state of economic dependance similar to how Latin America was to the US. The militarists motivation is that after the string of success in the Phillippines and given that its been more than 10 years after the Chita Disaster, that this is their chance to thrust themselves back into prominence, and considering that Prince Fushimi approved of it, and that in OTL he was Chief of Staff of the Imperial Japanese navy, and traditionally the Japanese military were the ones behind any orders coming from the royal family, suggests their involvement in influencing the decision.

You cannot underestimate how important it is that the military can make the claim that they are legitimately speaking for the Emperor and the royal family, who are regarded as gods. If the Civilian government protests too hard, then the military can portray it that the Civilian government is going against the will of the Emperor. The militarists can also use that argument to silence any form of significant form of protest from the civilian population.

Faced up against the pressure of these two groups, I think the Japanese civilian government had to give in.

Which brings me to another point. I don't think that the Chita disaster was enough to permanantly weaken both the militarist faction and the Zaibatsus, which have been entrenched long before the Meiji Era, the former of which has always held political power, and latter of which came about during the growth of the merchant class which grew increasingly wealthy during the Tokugawa, and then when Industrialization took hold, morphed into the Zaibatsu. Prime Minister Hara in the 20s may have removed some key individuals who were responsible for that disaster, but the very structure wasn't changed. Japan's constitution was drafted in such a manner that ensured these two entities would have special priviledges. Thus, for all the talk that Japan is seemingly a more enlightened nation ITTL, the entities that plagued Japan in the 30s and 40s OTL, the military and the Zaibatsu, still remain.

It took WWII for these two entities to be demolished, and they're too well entrenched in Japanese society, hisorically or otherwise, for them to be removed from the equation without some sort of radical shift, or at least nothing less than what's going on in the US ITTL right now.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by rast

This time, there was nobody to hold him back. San Diego agreed that Hawaii had to be held no matter what the cost. – Bagley felt elated; either he did stare down Hyakutake, which in his mind was the most probable outcome,

Monty Burns:

To answer an earlier question, Bagley does have permission to engage the Japanese in Hawaii.

Given that the two fleets are just about equal on paper, it'll be other factors involved which will determine the outcome of the battle. I think the more probable outcome is that the US would gain a hard fought victory, because of the fact that the US is close to Pearl Harbor, and that Japan is at the end of its logistical capabilities. The US also has the experience advantage, given their activity in the Phillippines and earlier in the Carribbean. Also the US Navy has more at stake here, given its fighting for what they perceive as home waters.

In any case, I'm waiting with bated breath the fate of the battle to come.

[rast]

Originally Posted by Bmao

Faced up against the pressure of these two groups, I think the Japanese civilian government had to give in.

A very sensitive assessment. - The army type militarists were very much neutred due to Chita and a failed attempt on the Prime Mininster, but the more elegant navy type militarists are still alive and kicking.

[Adler17]

Originally Posted by rast

A concise overview of the capital ships of the US Navy and the Imperial Japanese Navy in early 1936:

US Navy
Modern battleships in fleet service: BB-55 South Carolina, BB-56 Michigan, B-57 Delaware, BB-58 North Dakota, BB-59 Florida, BB-60 Utah, BB-61 Wyoming, BB-62 Arkansas, BB-64 Texas.
Modern battleships laid down 1934, not yet launched or commissioned: BB-65 Nevada, BB-66 Oklahoma, BB-67 Pennsylvania, BB-68 Idaho, B-69 Tennessee, B-70 Colorado.
Modern battleships laid down 1935, far from finished: BB-71 Maryland, BB-72 West Virginia, BB-73 Washington, BB-74 South Dakota, BB-75 Indiana, BB-76 Montana.
Older battleships, relegated to training duties: BB-39 Arizona, BB-40 New Mexico, BB-41 Mississippi, BB-44 California.
Battlecruisers in fleet service: CC-2 Constellation, CC-4 Ranger, CC-5 Constitution.
Large fleet carriers: CV-2 Wasp, CV-3 Hornet, CV-4 Bumblebee, CV-5 Dragonfly, CV-7 Mosquito, CV-9 Blackfly, CV-10 Tsetse, CV-11 Weevil.
Escort carriers: different types in service, 46 in all.

Imperial Japanese Navy
Modern battleships in fleet service: Nagato, Mutsu, Tosa, Kaga, Awaji, Imashiro, Sanuki, Kazusa, Higo, Tamba, Chishima, Dewa.
Modern battleships not yet commissioned: Tamba, Sagami, Bingo.
Modern battle cruisers in fleet service: Kongō, Haruna, Amagi, Akagi, Atago, Takao, Myōkō, Chōkai, Sasebo, Yokosuka, Tsushima.
Modern battle cruisers not yet commissioned: Anta, Otake, Izumo.
Older battleships decommissioned: Kawachi, Settsu, Satsuma, Aki.
Older battleships held in reserve status: Fusō, Yamashiro, Ise, Hyūga.
Older battle cruisers decommissioned: Ikoma, Ibuki, Kurama.
Large fleet carriers: Washi, Kamome, Jinsho, Umigarasu, Tsuru, Nosuri, Zuku.
Large fleet carriers not yet commissioned: Haitaka, U.
Escort carriers: Hōshō, Taka, Ahōdori, Akizu, Hachi, Ka, Hai, Chō, Tsubakura, Yamagara.

What about the Japanese BC Hiei and Kirishima?

Adler