A Shift in Priorities

[Rooster Cogburn]

Thank you for the Italian update Rast!!!!!!!

[Rooster Cogburn]

I hate to make a request so soon after you filled in the last one, but I think this ones important. Whats the Supreme Court look like? Is it basically all liberal Democrats? What are their legal opinions on St. Alvin's March and what power the government has to deal with it?

[NHBL]

Originally Posted by Rooster Cogburn

I hate to make a request so soon after you filled in the last one, but I think this ones important. Whats the Supreme Court look like? Is it basically all liberal Democrats? What are their legal opinions on St. Alvin's March and what power the government has to deal with it?

I won't presume to guess the court's composition--but I would guess that the march will be over, one way or another, before the court hears a case...the US Supreme Court is slow at best, and, IIRC, doesn't have original jurisdiction here--so it will go through a lower court, first, before the apeal.

(Though even these people might just move a bit faster if they're working by firelight..)

[rast]

Gelt ferlorn, gor nix ferlorn; mut ferlorn, alls ferlorn.
(Money lost, nothing lost; courage lost, everything lost. – Yiddish proverb)

The atmosphere in the meeting room was tense after Henryk Ehrlich had ended his presentation. The attendees were looking at each other – and were wondering who was going to flinch first...
Eventually, it was Paul Finder, who broke the silence.
“Gentlemen, I guess we have a problem there, a nasty problem...”

Most members of the Heymshtot’s cabinet were ancient Bundists, thus, their compassion for suffering bankers was strictly limited. But this was something else...
“What shall we do now?” asked Ehrlich. “Our voters will punish us at the ballot, if we save the banks with taxpayer funds.”
“True.” said Baruch Zuckerman, the Prime Minister, “Our political enemies, first of all the Chasids, will eat us alive. – But in this case...”

“These idiots!” interrupted Leon Bramson. “Why did they gamble away so much Russian money? One should throw the whole lot into prison! This is awkward!”
“Yes, Leon, we know, but that really doesn’t help us.” replied Zuckerman. “We must come up with a solution to the Russian question...”

Ever since its creation, the Heymshtot was struggeling to hold balanced relations with its two birth helpers, Germany and Russia. Russia had provided the territory and about half of the population of the new Yiddish state; she also had secured supply of foodstuffs and natural resources in the initial critical years. Germany had provided principal technical assistance and had managed – through Albert Ballin and his shipping trust – the return of the Eastern European Jews from the USA.

As long as there was no major conflict of interests between Russia and Germany, the Heymshtot was considered safe. Even the unfriendly Russian attitude, as recently observed, towards the Ukraine did not overly worry the responsible politicians in Nai Bialystok. This was the classical case, where the Heymshtot could declare neutral, while the German proxies in Kiev were dealing with the Russian proxies in Charkow – and vice versa. Because no one – not even the most aggressive falcons in the Kremlin – was considering the use of force in this case, Nai Bialystok remained at ease.

Because of her unique position, the Heymshtot had quickly developed a strong banking sector. There were kinsmanlike relations to banks in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Hungary; – those to British banks had been lost in the socialisation of British assets. – But there also still were excellent relations to US banks, where quite a number of Jews had remained active. And, because one had keenly assisted the Russian banking sector in attaining international standards, there also was a very good partnership to major banks in the Russian Empire.

Because the Imperial Russian Government did not encourage investments abroad – and the Russian banks felt compelled to respect that wish, quite some potent private Russian investors had put their money into Heymshtot banks, which were active on the US market. US bonds had offered interests between 10 and 11 percent, while the US dollar had been kept fairly stable at an inflation rate just below 3 percent.

While everyone with the most humblest knowledge in economics ought to know that such interest rates could only mean: Danger! High risk papers! the fact remained that the Heymshtot banks had gambled away the money and were broke. – That in itself would hardly have bothered the socialist government in Nai Bialystok, as it had equally not bothered the cabinets in Berlin, Rome, Paris, Brussels, The Hague and Bern. Banks were considered private enterprise – and had to bear the risks of their business, as had greedy investors.

But in this special case, a lot of Russian money had been lost as well. And those private investors did have influence on the government of His Imperial Majesty the Tsar, considerable influence... Shrugging shoulders and whistling innocently would only prejudice these important people against the Heymshtot.

Thus, the Zuckerman Cabinet was now trying to square the circle. Helping the Heymshtot banks with taxpayer money was out of question. That would flush away the current coalition in the upcoming elections. Making very important Russian persons angry had to be avoided as well. There was only one way: Zuckerman and the leading Heymshtot bankers had to go on a pilgrimage to Frankfurt am Main. If the executive floor of the United Rothschild Banks – and Louis Nathaniel von Rothschild himself – could be won for a rescue operation of the joint European banks, the situation could be defused. That the Rothschilds would not refuse to help the Heymshtot was assumed, the question was what they were going to demand in return for the good service.

[Expat]

Great insight into the Heymshtot there. It'd be nice if something could be done to further curb financial speculation, but I'm assuming it's prett-well curbed ITTL, at least compared to OTL.

I'm hoping we'll hear about the UK before too long.

Originally Posted by Rooster Cogburn

I hate to make a request so soon after you filled in the last one, but I think this ones important. Whats the Supreme Court look like? Is it basically all liberal Democrats? What are their legal opinions on St. Alvin's March and what power the government has to deal with it?

Why on earth would there be liberal Democrats on the bench? The liberal Democrat has barely been *invented* ITTL. You do understand that McAdoo is under no stretch of the imagination a "liberal," right?

Looks like three pre-POD justices remain: Willis van Devanter (the sole Republican appointee left,) James Clark McReynolds, and Louis Brandeis.

Brandeis is the only liberal, and Rast mentioned that he stepped down in protest of...something? Something conservative anyway.

Rast has mentioned several additional justices are openly affiliated with the KKK. In short, we've got a bench pretty well stacked with segregationists. I think that if there's a noticeable split it will be between corporatist (small government) and statist (big government) conservatives. So they'll be able to agree on the illegality of the march, but may have differing opinions on what constitutes a legal response to the march.

In any case I agree with NHBL; they won't hear any case on the matter for at least six months to a year.

[XLII]

Originally Posted by rast

Banks were considered private enterprise – and had to bear the risks of their business, as had greedy investors.

I like that attitude and hope it survives the crisis.

[GamingWeasel]

I have only read up to page 5 at the moment, but I have been wondering what has happened with ex-Corporal Adolf Hitler.

I dont suppose given the situation, that his life would be even remotely similar to OTL. Maybe he remains a somewhat failed, frustrated, and obscure artist.

My apologies if you covered this in some post I have not read yet.

edit: I found it....Hitler owns a restaurant, hehe.

[Miker]

Originally Posted by GamingWeasel

edit: I found it....Hitler owns a restaurant, hehe.

Much more than that. It's refreshing to see his life turn out well.

[GamingWeasel]

Originally Posted by Miker

Much more than that. It's refreshing to see his life turn out well.

I have a lot read. Very curious to see.

[paulo]

Originally Posted by GamingWeasel

I have a lot read. Very curious to see.

Wait until you found Himmler and Heydrich
They have also 'small' different professions.

[Whumbly]

Originally Posted by GamingWeasel

I edit: I found it....Hitler owns a restaurant, hehe.

Not just a restaurant, though if you're reading through the timeline I won't tell you. Spoiler.

[Rooster Cogburn]

Originally Posted by Expat

Why on earth would there be liberal Democrats on the bench? The liberal Democrat has barely been *invented* ITTL. You do understand that McAdoo is under no stretch of the imagination a "liberal," right?

Looks like three pre-POD justices remain: Willis van Devanter (the sole Republican appointee left,) James Clark McReynolds, and Louis Brandeis.

Brandeis is the only liberal, and Rast mentioned that he stepped down in protest of...something? Something conservative anyway.

Rast has mentioned several additional justices are openly affiliated with the KKK. In short, we've got a bench pretty well stacked with segregationists. I think that if there's a noticeable split it will be between corporatist (small government) and statist (big government) conservatives. So they'll be able to agree on the illegality of the march, but may have differing opinions on what constitutes a legal response to the march.

In any case I agree with NHBL; they won't hear any case on the matter for at least six months to a year.

I wrote the post very quickly. Yes, I probably should have come up with a better adjective than liberal, I just didn't think I'd have too. I wouldn't describe McAdoo as liberal, probably more moderate to left leaning. Honestly I didn't think I'd have to come up with an exact description, and that it would just be assumed people knew what I was talking about My main point is, moderate to left-leaning Supreme Court judges; better?

Louis Brandeis has never been mentioned ITTL. And I don't have any memory of justices with KKK leanings? I asked because I don't really have any memory of the Supreme Court being mentioned at all.

I should have been more specific with this part; I don't really mean an actual case, just the opinions of the court. I just meant an update with them discussing their views of whats been going on. My bad

[Josephus]

Moderate to left?? What do you consider moderate right? Hitler?

[Expat]

Originally Posted by Rooster Cogburn

snip

Well...you...certainly see life through a bit of a lens, don't you?

There are plenty of wacko leftists ITTL and plenty of moderate liberals, too. President McAdoo is not to be found among either camp. Would you care to point out any policies or actions taken by McAdoo in the last 20-plus years of TTL that you would place on the left side of the spectrum or is "he seems like the bad guy" enough to pass muster on the right these days?

Here's Brandeis quitting.

Here's the KKK on the bench.

McAdoo is a raging conservative and the US seems poised to take an even more disastrously rightward turn. Just like the UK has found a particularly hellish corner of the left to exist in. Incidentally, the fact that there are bad people out there of every stripe of the political fabric doesn't have to reflect badly on regular folks. I find that this board is a great place to learn that fact.

As to the opinions of the judges, I expect they're pretty much a bunch of plutocrats at this point, dedicated to propping up the system in order to save their own skins. Unlike the financial class they don't really have the option of trying to bring the system down for their own betterment.

[Rooster Cogburn]

Originally Posted by Expat

snip

That is so weird? When you mentioned Brandeis, I looked up his name in the timeline, and the only two results were this conversation. I looked again after reading your link, still nothing. I don't know how to explain that? My mistake. And I assumed I'd just remember justices being connected to the KKK. Again, my memory is to blame for that

Wikipedia doesn't exactly have a full fledged area on the political opinions of William Gibbs McAdoo. I went with the fact that by this point, the Democrats were already beginning their turn towards the left in OTL (not really there till FDR, but already starting by nominees such as Bryan and Wilson) and that he served as Wilson's Treasury Secretary. While there is the obvious family connection, I'd have to assume he was at least somewhat liberal to serve as Wilson's (one of the most progressive Presidents we've had) Treasury secretary. And for most of McAdoo's term, we've gotten all things dealing with foreign policy. Besides general racism found everywhere and the military investments, there really hasn't been much mentioned about domestic agenda.

[rast]

Weeds are difficult to kill.
(Philippine proverb)

Without much regret, Yamashita Tomoyuki had corrected his assessment: the Amerika-Jin troops were not immune to President Aguinaldo’s triple attack – booze, whores and dope. For whatever gaijin reasons, the US Army did not follow the path of reason – as did the forces of His Imperial Majesty and also the Doitsu – and were refusing to set up special whorehouses for their soldiers.

What did this weird people expect? Sending their most healthy and virile young men abroad – and expecting them to behave like geldings? Ordering a ‘no fraternisation’ policy – and expecting blokes full of testosterone and silly ideas to obey them? – Any such attempt was bound to fail. The navies of the world knew what was going to happen when one of their ships went into harbour. And – if Yamashita recalled correctly – the US Navy had even deployed a hooker steamship to Greenland during the Trans-Atlantic War. So, why did the US Army think they could just order their common blokes not to touch pretty and welcoming Filipinas?

Of course, everything else followed from this. Once one had disregarded standing orders and had ‘faternised’, one could also get sloshed or have some fun with dope. After all, there was no combat – just dull occupational duty, standing guard and running patrol. President Aguinaldo and his government had vanished into the northern mountains.

It was, Yamashita had to admit, a strange kind of war. While ships at sea were being sunk or damaged, on land there was love, peace and harmony. The Amerika-Jin had tried to instal a puppet government under Manuel Quezon, but Quezon had refused – and had vanished into the southern mountains. As it was, no important Filipino in his sane mind was going to fraternise with the occupants as long as these were seen as transitional ‘guests’ only.

And now, with the news about the financial crash in the US, expectations ran high that the US expedition was soon going to lose steam. After all, it was – thus far – nothing but a costly failure. As a naval power projection it was impressive, but it was projecting into the void – the Philippines simply were the wrong place. And the tremendous naval demonstration was not accompanied by an assembly of ground forces of equal dimensions. Initially, the Amerika-Jin had tried to manage matters with the US Navy alone. This hadn’t worked. Then, they had introduced the IV. US Corps, which was a good outfit – but blatantly too small in numbers. So, either the US poured more troops on the 7,000 isles – or they abandoned the whole operation. Currently, bets were at 100 : 1 for the latter outcome.

Yamashita, who had excellent connections to the Philippine elites, was already at work preparing for the time after the decampment of the Amerika-Jin. The damage done by the US forces wasn’t substantial.So far, they had succeeded in burning out three or four real submarine bases – and about 100 villages more, where they had believed to find submariners. Although the Amerika-Jin used nasty incendiary stuff, most probably a kind of jellied gasoline that could cauterise large areas, the overall harm and loss of life was minor. Thus, the reconstruction effort would be negligible.

But certainly, President Aguinaldo would want to raise an indigene army. He had converted the Philippine Scouts, a force raised by the Amerika-Jin, into a kind of country gendarmerie, leaving the individual officers their sinecure, but effectively disbanding them as an armed force capable of cohesive action. A new army was in need of qualified instructors – and the IJA had the benefit of having been able to learn from some thorough defeats. If it was true that the vanquished learnt more from an armed conflict than the victor, then Nippon was the country to turn to if one intended to build a modern ground force.

Yamashita had become aware that Middle Africans were training the Philippine submarine arm. This was irritating, especially since Nippon was delivering the hardware. One wondered what the admirals of the IJN and the diplomats thought they were thus accomplishing. It was sheer stupidity to let these black apes gain access to the bonanza that the Philippines were. It would have been far more intelligent to have had accompany a regiment of trainers the delivery of the boats. – Well, the damage had been done. The more important it became now to gain the positions of instructor for the army. In Philippine thinking, there was no place for an independent air force. There would be a small army air force – and a much larger naval air force. Therefore, courtesy the inaptitude of some high ranking idiots in Tokyo, the Middle African brutes might also gain influence over the naval flyers. Their victory at Cape Palmas certainly made them attractive as teachers.

All in all, Yamashita was hardly content with how things were turning out. He considered the future naval side of affairs already lost to the black men from Africa, while in army matters there was still hope to gain some influence, but also the prospect of being rudely disappointed.

[Reichenfaust]

So Japan might actually have a competent ground force!?!

[Expat]

That's too bad about the Scouts. They were an effective unit. Aguinaldo might be a little too paranoid about all things American- is he going to knock down the radio towers they built, too?

Another possible outcome for this war is that the US plop themselves down on one of the more defensible islands and gain themselves an alt-Guantanamo Bay.

Originally Posted by Rooster Cogburn

Besides general racism found everywhere and the military investments, there really hasn't been much mentioned about domestic agenda.

I think the absence of posts about progressive legislation is the most telling sign that it's not happening. They've had a chance to fix the Dust Bowl crisis with New Deal-style ecological programs and they haven't done it. There's really no safety net to speak of. Rather than infrastructure driving the market (progressive,) the market is driving infrastructure (regressive.) There's little spending on anything but the military.

The state of progressive politics IOTL is pretty bleak. You've got the utterly fringe Tea Party. The new Progressive Republican caucus (about 1/3 of Republicans pre-1936, which might turn into something useful, but hasn't really shown much initiative up to now. The Farm Labor Party can be fairly called the most successful progressive strain in the country, but even then you have a problem of definitions since it's pretty anarchic. You might also make the argument for the southern Share our Wealth Party, which in principle should be about infrastructure and the safety net. To some extent it is, but it's more about personal pay offs and direct dispersion of funds to constituents- not really progressive behavior.

[Rooster Cogburn]

Originally Posted by Expat

I think the absence of posts about progressive legislation is the most telling sign that it's not happening.

Very valid point. I just googled McAdoo's politics (not exactly full proof, but I digress) and it came back with "progressive." Maybe he became more conservative during the 1920s ITTL, but I was just going off of his views in OTL.

[wietze]

Originally Posted by Reichenfaust

So Japan might actually have a competent ground force!?!

maybe that is what they are thinking