A Shift in Priorities

[ANARCHY_4_ALL]

Originally Posted by Peabody-Martini

I think that the Middle Africans reputation will be one of being all round ass kickers. That they develop this reputation mostly fighting American interests is just happenstance due to the era they are living in. A few decades earlier and they would have fought the British Empire, a decade or so later it would have been the Germans or Russians. That many of the prominent MA military leaders have come to have an almost pathological hatred of all things American is entirely too understandable. At the same time actions of the US government during the TAW and afterwards have done nothing but reenforce that hatred.

I think it's more aptly a flawed administration and it's will upon the people. Let's see what the American public's reaction is to the situation. But I agree it is understandable though of Middle Africa's hatred towards America.

[nerdknight01]

¡ Hi ! ¡ AWESOME !.

First thing, ¡ THANKS RAST !, so Ayn Rand is death, what a total surprise, well at least lives in this magnificent timeline Sartre for attacking the order of the world, i supose. Some days ago as for myself i beggining to read one book of the american´s socialist writter and social activist called Leo Huberman, what i try to say is that it be amazing to see his life in this timeine fighting against McAdoo´s administration.

[nerdknight01]

About the sweet update, some ideas:

-David Kalumbe sounds as one smart captain, and who knows maybe are hired for working by part of the philipines goverment a lot of TAW veterans, or some some nordic captains and troops who suffer by this war, will see..

-The Japanese will it be having a decent and deathly submarine float.

-The middleafricans are creating one tradition for it be angry against the americans, and maybe will it be part in this new war as hired " advisors " by part of the Philipine´s goverment, finnally about Middleafrica, maybe as for myself i was totally wrong because i belived that the next Middleafrican´s war maybe will it be against the evil EVEG.

-Finnally about this war, something in my guts tell me that maybe and it say again maybe because the cost of the war, and the common ordinary citizen pressure, the americans need to win this conflict in how to say, in the most rapid, fast way, and the Philipines can suport and resist more time in the fight.

Peace and good luck.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Peabody-Martini

The other consequence I see is if the German Navy, through their Middle African proxies, take an interest in Japanese torpedo design. If the Germans can get a hold of the plans or an example of the Type 93 "Long Lance", which would be in prototype form at the moment and successfully reverse engineer it. I don't think I need to spell out what a German "Long Lance" coupled with the "Elekro boat" concept would mean to the shipping lanes and the surface navies of the world, much less the balance of world power.

I'm pretty sure that Kalumbe already has some ideas to give that torpedo design to Mittelafrika - I'm not sure whether he minds Germany getting it, though. At least the idea of a "long lance" and the battery propulsion should have found its way to Mittelafrika by now.

Originally Posted by Bmao

However, you'd need the intervention of a major sea power like Japan (which again, Standley would have to be monumentally stupid for that to happen) to be able to change the situation that the US Navy will sooner or later choke off Filippino commerce, because I don't think a few Middle African trainers are going to be enough to be able to train enough seamen to make a difference.
The question is though, how long the Filippinos would be able to afford this sort of support? Their commerce is going to be squeezed by the US Navy in short order, and regardless of how much the Middle African trainers hate the Yanqui, they're not going to work for free.

Before the blockade leaves the Philippines unable to pay for their trainers (and I guess they'd work for mere promises of later payment as long as it is against the Amis), they'll run out of ammunition and fuel, I guess.

In any case, they should be able to continue guerilla warfare for years and submarine warfare for some weeks. If they continue to be that successful, question is whether the US wouldn't change their sensible strategy to a more aggressive one, alienating the Japanese or Chinese in turn.

Originally Posted by Bmao

As for the structure of the East-Asian Coalition, I think that in many ways its a paper tiger. Not necessarily in its military capabilities, but being able to coordinate and work for its mutual benefit, as the big fundamental contradiction of the whole structural base of the East-Asian Coalition is that you have the premise that China and Japan are willing to work for mutual benefit.

What I think is happening is that China and Japan are using the framework of the Coalition to try and get one up on each other, both want to be perceived as the 'senior partner' in the relationship, and neither is willing to be the junior partner to the other, and more often than not they end up competing with one another over influence in the smaller east asian countries, like Vietnam (where the Vietnamese prefer Japanese hegemony because they hate the Chinese more), Korea (where its people are still ruled by Japanese secret police men and where China could look to gain interest by fostering independence movements), etc., instead of working for mutual interest. The reason that COMECON works is that its clear that Germany is the hegemonic power in Europe, while the Pan-Turan commonwealth works out because its clear and awknowledged that the Ottomans are leading the way. Not so with the East-Asian Coalition, where Japan and China are comparable in power and have competing strategic aims.

I fully agree with respect to the Pan-Turans, but I don't fully agree with the others. I think German dominance in the COMECON is much less pronounced than Chinese dominance (or at least potential dominance once they got through their current economic and policital problems), and Germany is actively trying to not let it be felt. Germany merely tries to be a primus inter pares, whereas in the Asian league it's clear that nobody is on par with China - not even all others combined.

In any case, now with France more and more involved in the COMECON, Italy sooner or later finding diverging interests with Germany, and the other nations in Eastern Europe emerging, COMECON will see some problems as well.

Originally Posted by nerdknight01

-The Japanese will it be having a decent and deathly submarine float.

Indeed. If the US manage to get the Japanese in, their submarine fleet plus their superior carrier doctrine should give the US quite a headache.

Add to that the fact that the prosperity sphere the Japanese had to conquer and rule by force IOTL supports them voluntarily now. Not to mention the fact that there are places around which may offer the Japanese submarine bases (Venezuela, Mittelafrika...) and that Japanese trade through the Indian ocean to India, Africa or Europe will be uncontested...

[Kelenas]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

I'm pretty sure that Kalumbe already has some ideas to give that torpedo design to Mittelafrika - I'm not sure whether he minds Germany getting it, though. At least the idea of a "long lance" and the battery propulsion should have found its way to Mittelafrika by now.

Considering that Germany is likely still more or less elbow-deep involved in Mittelafrika, especially in more technical areas, I think Germany gaining knowledge about the Japanese torpedoes is pretty much a given, if Kalumbe passes this knowledge on.

Training technical personel of a level where they could design something like this takes time, after all, and I think MAs pool of such personel is likely still quite shallow - and will be for a while longer. Thus, they have to pick and choose their projects.
Of course the Middle Africans might decide to go ahead with such a project anyway, but all they'll really do is hamper themselves greatly for minimal gain. Engineers working on this project, for example, are engineers that can't train others to be engineers as well, that can't work on expanding MAs industry or infrastructure, etc. pp.

- Kelenas

[rast]

Quality means doing it right when no one is looking.
(Henry Ford)

Appalled, George Washington Cooper had listened to the radio news. USS New York, one of the marvellous new battle wagons had been sunk! They said she had been hit by three torpedoes. – Knowing how the ships were constructed, George wondered how this could have sufficed to founder the leviathan. At least two of the projectiles must have detonated closely together, tearing one huge hole... Three isolated torpedoes exploding here, there and somewhere else might cripple a South Carolina class dreadnought, but could hardly sink her.

But most people, even at the Newport News Shipbuilding and Drydock Company, where BB-66, the future USS Oklahoma, was nearing completion, were, however, not interested in such technical considerations. The mood was one of outrage and exasperation. These treacherous Gooks had dared to attack the US of A and had dastardly killed 1,057 brave sailors. One expected the administration to act decisively – and to punish those guilty of this brutal aggression.

Even Harvey Poulson, a rather placid and peaceful guy, was upset. Even if the Filipinos had issued an ultimatum asking the US to evacuate their armed forces from the islands – and the US had not done this – the attack on USS New York was a vicious provocation.

Then, a newspaper reported that the administration had known about the submarines Japan had sold to the Philippines, but that nobody had anticipated that the blokes might be able to operate them effectively. The Filipinos had absolutely no experience with submarines; thus, it was not very probable that a Filipino crew had accomplished the sinking of BB-63. Had the sub been manned by a Japanese crew?

The Japanese embassy in Washington, D.C., immediately published a dementi. No Japanese military personnel sojourned on the Philippines – other than the military attachés and their staffs. The submarines had been conveyed by civilian shipyard employees, who had returned to Japan after delivery.

George assessed that nobody at Newport News was believing these statements. Japan was the only foreign power in the Pacific Ocean that possessed a noteworthy submarine fleet. And it was well known that they were very interested in exploiting Philippine natural resources. So, people were ready to assume that the Japs had a finger in the pie.

In the meanwhile, the administration was propagating optimism. The US Navy had several hundred vessels deployed to the Philippines; the islands would be blockaded – and all trade effectively interrupted. Within few weeks, the Filipinos would meekly ask for peace.

George wasn’t sure whether he liked this approach. When Japan and other Asian countries were trading with the Philippines, they certainly wouldn’t be elated if their merchandise was seized by the US. One had to respect the rights of neutral nations – or they might not remain neutral...

Well, he made his living by constructing warships. So, he shouldn’t worry when the US Navy became active in foreign waters. But somehow, he had the impression that the whole affair was most inopportune. The Philippines were damn far away, much farther than Europe or Africa. Was it really clever to wage a war over there? If the Filipinos didn’t want US soldiers on their islands why trying to enforce their presence? The Republicans were perhaps correct in demanding a return to isolation. The US were large enough without far away colonies... Now, he was going to vote for the party of Abraham Lincoln anyway; but he liked the idea of splendid isolation.

[ANARCHY_4_ALL]

Who are the Republican candidates shouldn't their be some upcoming primaries? On that I don't think the Dems will give McAdoo a third term. Who are their candidates?

[Expat]

An isolationist Republican does seem a likely outcome of the last 25-odd years out of power. It's interesting that defense industry workers are thinking of voting for a candidate that will surely put them out of work.

I also wonder how vehement the cry of "revenge!" is nation-wide. At this point there's probably a lot of anger that these men were put in a position to die for this pointless cause to begin with.

[zeppelin247]

although if the GOP win and cut the defence industry, that's a lot of people unemployed and will anybody want to do any new deal programs? What is FDR doing btw?

[ANARCHY_4_ALL]

Originally Posted by zeppelin247

although if the GOP win and cut the defence industry, that's a lot of people unemployed and will anybody want to do any new deal programs? What is FDR doing btw?

FDR got pushed out of his office and put in charge of developing the Air Force a while back. I'm sure the stresses of the crisis and this abandonment by the Democrats have probably increased the effects of his disease. I'm more interested in James Roosevelt and his future.

[Bmao]

The US is going to have to tread very carefully now. A war with Japan is the last thing the US needs, and unless the US willing to escalate to the equivalent of WWII (then all bets are off), it'll turn into another running sore. What's worse is that it would be very hard to prove exactly who is the real culprit, unless you somehow manage to capture a Middle African trainer, so there is a serious instance of guilt by association. Hopefully cooler heads prevail within the administration, though considering the trend of what's gone on in idiot America, we're likely to see war with Japan followed by internment camps for all those who look Asian...

McAdoo is a lame duck, thank god, especially after his botched impeachment trial. Its clear to anybody who has a brain that he's stayed on long enough. Don't think Hearst is getting the nomination either, since he's part of the tainted McAdoo administration. However, I don't have any idea who might be headlining the Republican ticket... Part of me is also hoping that Omar Bradley might try putting his name on the Presidential ticket, just to put himself on the map politically.

[nerdknight01]

¡ Hi ! ¡ INTERESTING !.

To Monty Burns: ¡ THANKS !. And maybe and it say again maybe now we see some a totally diferent change for the Japanese Empire in the next years and decades:

A)The Japanese Empire instead of suporting a Carriers float, now will it be having one eficient and deathly submarine float, ¡ heck ! inmagine in some decades when exist in this timeline submarines with how to say, nuke´s missiles.

B)In our world more or least the Japanese Empire was a common politic the use of brute force and fear for becoming one empire, and now i supose that in excellent´s Rast timeline maybe the Japanese Empire will go to use the way of frienship and forging alliances, will see...

About the update, George Washinton looks as one decent, wise worker who love their beloved country, but he can´t se the complex of the Philipine situation, for example that is not a good idea to aboardships of neutral countries, or attacking the Japanese because the submarine attack incident.

And for last one final idea, maybe the best situation for the american people is to vote for some isoltianist candidate, but i supose that the common and ordinary american citizen will suport one beligrant candidate because for the moment América is in a war, and more important, a lot of votes will it be to the more militarist candidate, because of the fear of losing the jobs in the how to say, military industry.

Peace and good luck.

[Expat]

It's hard to say who the Republicans would nominate ITTL. IOTL, every Republican candidate had at least one foot in the business community throughout this era. They were often businessmen first and politicians second, and we all know how butterflied American business is ITTL. Therefore it's possible (moreso than with the Democrats) that we'd see a candidate totally unknown to us (a Matutin, if you will.)

You could also make the case for a known candidate, given the patrician nature of the party. Robert Taft is a compelling option. Hoover is almost certainly around, though getting old at this point.

[Peabody-Martini]

We know from OTL what the achilles heel of battleship design turned out to be. The New York displayed it in very graphic manner. From the discription of the incident the New York took three torpedoes, all on the same side, each one with a 300 kilo warhead. That would have blasted holes in the side of the ship big enough to drive a truck through. All the flooding being on one side would have caused it to capsize and sink in minutes. One curious irony is that if the New York had been in general quarters the loss of life would have been greater.

How many times is the American public going to be outraged by some group of people they had underestimated giving them a swift kick in the balls. The only silver lining I can see on this mushroom cloud is that all this will cause the US government to think twice before messing about in Latin America and Africa in TTL.

[Monty Burns]

So the US are establishing a close blockade of the Philippines at a time when everybody in the US (and in the military alike) assumes that it was the Japanese who sank that ship. I guess the stage is ready for some "incident" to bring the Japanese in officially.

There's several hundred navy vessels around the Philippines. I wonder how many of these will make it back...

[rast]

Even the wishes of an ant reach to heaven.
(Shinto wisdom)

Fleet Admiral Prince Fushimi Hiroyasu, the Chief of the Naval General Staff, was a very experienced naval officer. He had served as a lieutenant commander in the First Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05, and had been wounded in the Battle of the Yellow Sea; he had commanded several capital ships, and he had attended staff courses in Germany and Great Britain, accustoming him with European naval doctrine – and rendering him fluent in German and English, – and finally, he was a rather close relative of the Emperor, entitled to succession to the throne in default of a direct heir.

Japanese Prime Minister Nakajima Chikuhei had asked the Prince to provide his appreciation of the Philippine situation to him, foreign minister Uchida Kōsai, and naval minister Hatoyama Ichirō.
“Well, Gentlemen. This is indeed an interesting problem. – You know, before the Great War there was a vivid discussion, especially in Britain, about the feasibility of a close blockade opposite an opponent equipped with submarines. – This eventually convinced the British admiralty to abandon the idea of a close blockade and to implement a wide blockade against Germany.

"The US are now trying to do what the Britons avoided for fear of disproportionate losses – a close blockade opposite an enemy equipped with formidable modern submarines. – They may have believed that the Filipinos were inept in utilising those boats correctly and efficiently. – The loss of USS New York should have taught them otherwise, I suppose.

"But, on the other hand, if the US really want to strangle Philippine economy, there’s no alternative to a close blockade. The Philippines are self-sufficient in foodstuffs production. Thus, the Americans have to interrupt trade between the islands in order to make a difference. – A strangling blockade has been made legitimate by the British in the Great War, initially against token US protests – and finally with full American consent, after they had joined the Entente. – So, if the Americans want to succeed, they’ll have to search, find and destroy the submarines. Because the Filipinos cannot produce the boats themselves, this method may work. – However, Gentlemen, even under the conditions of a close blockade, submarines are about the only merchandise that can be delivered safely.”

The Prince smiled wryly and bowed to the politicians, indicating that this was something they had to decide.

“There’s no doubt that the US possess a sufficient number of vessels for executing a strangling blockade – if they either can find and destroy the submarines – or are ready to accept painful losses... But the Philippines are no sophisticated modern society. So, it’s difficult to predict how long the strangling process will have to last to be successful. In the worst case – for the Americans – the Filipinos will be able to thrive on a subsistence agriculture for a very long time.

"So, we’ll most probably be provided a very fascinating spectacle for quite a long time. – However, which consequences this will have for our trade and our economy, I cannot tell.”
ThePrince bowed again and sat down.

The Prime Minister took out a sheet of paper.
“I have the figures here. – Substantial investments have been made, mainly by Hokushinkai Mining. But their financial situation is such that they can sit out the calamity – as long as the investment is not lost irrevocably, that is: destroyed by acts of war. – More of interest is the situation of our – ah – allies in China. Since they have ousted to foreign traders, they rely mostly on Chinese merchants living abroad. The US will heavily distort the trade networks of these people, and there is already some dissatisfied grumbling going on in Beijing. So, our navel-gazing – ah – friends may soon abandon their splendid isolation and start barking at the US.

"As they consider us as their naval muscle, this may have unpleasant consequences for us. I would very much regret to confront the Americans over this petty Philippine affair. Thus, I shall undertake to manoeuvre very carefully. – My intention is to sit the whole issue out – just like Hokushinkai – and to resume normal business as soon as possible. – If the Chinese force us to act, I want you...” he bowed to Uchida “to closely co-ordinate with the Americans. Then, we ought to be able staging some impressive show of force without piquing the US. – As far as the submarines are concerned, I’d think this is a matter of Philippine solvency. – We must, however, make it adamantly clear that no Japanese advisors are active on the islands. – But as we, of course, protest against the US blockade, we will not cease to trade what can be traded.”

[Expat]

Under a close blockade, I wonder if we might see some interesting consequences for the Sultanate of Sulu. If things last a while, perhaps the US might recognize their independence. Or, under a successful close blockade, they might simply become de facto independent and successfully refuse to rejoin the rest of the islands.

Sulu also has an historical claim to parts of Borneo, which (last we heard) was basically lawless. A Sultanate with foreign aid could act as a legitimate and stabilizing force over at least a part of Borneo, or perhaps even turn expansionist and take the whole island.

[Rooster Cogburn]

Oh......my........god. I'm done. I'm actually finished reading. Rast, I've been reading this timeline for the last month, trying to get through it. And I finally did it; I don't know what to do now....except tell you that this is the most intricate, detailed timeline I've ever seen!!!!!!!!!! I love what you've written, you've made me fall in love with TTL's Hitler, and you've made me feel truly proud of my German ancestry. I look forward to reading this timeline everyday!

Though I have noticed that there hasn't been a lot of updates about Italy lately. With Giolitti having died quite a few years ago, it'd be interesting to see how the socialist-liberal alliance in the government is working out. And I REALLY hope Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck becames Chancellor of Germany soon.

And on another note, I don't think I've ever seen more "the shit is hitting the fan" comments in one place.

[Monty Burns]

Now who would have expected this cold rationality and pragmatism of the Japanese? The US are extremely lucky that their potential enemy is that relaxed.

Considering isolating the single islands: how will that work? Putting big ships into tight waterways is dangerous (starting torpedos from land/smaller fishing boats...), but smaller and faster craft would need bases, right? Are the two bases the US hold enough to support a large fleet of smaller boats patrolling the Philippines?

And finally, I guess the Japanese are right in that this blockade will last quite a while without hurting the Philippines that much. How much will it cost to support such a large blockading fleet on the other side of the globe? Even if the other Asian powers accept the US actions, that doesn't mean that the US can expect to buy in their harbours. So all supplies need to be transported into the theatre of action...

[Peabody-Martini]

The entire enterprise will have to carried out with the main logistical bases located largely on the West Coast. Mainly in California and Washington State. Hawaii being a net drain on resources itself. The problems are the same as the ones that gave the USN fits during WW2 IOTL only they will be trying conduct this operation with a 1930s tech base.

The Japanese decision to wait is probably the correct move. However everything could go sideways if an ambitious MA sub captain sends another American capital ship to the bottom.