A Shift in Priorities

[Kelenas]

Sounds like China's becoming quite xenophobic. Not really surprising, given its history, but still not exactly a good thing. While they no doubt have the ability to replace the foreign workers and specialists leaving with their own, it'll slow down their expansion and recovery from their civil war.

- Kelenas

[Life In Black]

Originally Posted by Kelenas

Sounds like China's becoming quite xenophobic. Not really surprising, given its history, but still not exactly a good thing. While they no doubt have the ability to replace the foreign workers and specialists leaving with their own, it'll slow down their expansion and recovery from their civil war.

- Kelenas

Maybe, but they have Middle Africa as an example that they can not only become self sufficient, but become a force not to be ignored.

[Peabody-Martini]

Both China and the Ottoman Empire had undergone a long period of decline and decay even before the POD. Subsequent events seem to have given both nations a new lease on life. Yet are we starting to see signs that historical inertia is starting to reassert itself? With China retreating into isolation and the Ottomans finding themselves a client state of German oil interests.

[Life In Black]

I'm honestly waiting for a civil war of sorts in the '50s between Germany and EVEG.

[Shogo]

Maybe this is how America and Russia get closer?

America fucks with Japan, Russia fucks with China . . . Intentional or not, it sees them helping each other if you can't fight one without fighting the other. That might be the proverbial foot in the door they need for developing warmer relations.

Or I'm just seeing specters of nothing.

[Peabody-Martini]

The Russians are only a generation from having the Czar and most of his immediate family wiped out as a result of an ill conceived war. They also have some very good reasons to be suspicious of outsiders (Vladimir Lenin springs first to mind). It seems to me that they will not start a war with China until they are good and ready, preferably without someone else's help.

If there is a dust-up between the US and Japan the US would swiftly discover the logistical problems of waging a war halfway around the world. Also war in the Philippines would make the current difficulties in the Caribbean seem like a Sunday picnic.

Where the Russians would benefit is if they didn't go to war at that moment but instead by stringing the Americans along. At the same time making overtures to the Germans for them not to go to war. Keep the bidding going on for as long as possible and wait for the war to end. Get all the prizes and none of the pitfalls of actually going to war. This might not seem too likely but the Russians are always up to a good game of chess.

[nerdknight01]

¡ Hi ! INTERESTING !.

-To Expat: ¡ THANKS !, yep, maybe baseball don´t it be to much popular sport around the world, but in América as for myself, i supose that going to be a very popular sport, and one form of cheap entreteinment and one escape valvue against the social and economic problems. In this magnificent timeline i supose that the popular sport around the world will it be soccer.

-Japan´s goverment sounds logic, rational and pacific about the philippine´s situation, but the army or the japanese companies, well....

-For China for one part for some years maybe it be going to isolate to the rest of the world, working in a chinese reconstruction program fixing the disasters created by the civil war. The freacking scary part is that if happen, occur one conflict against the russians because for the moment the chinese army are more or less broken, and if that conflict occur maybe became a fight between russian war tecnology against chinese army numbers.

And for last, ¡ WAIT ! the americans are going/left their money, resources, inversions in China, this is other severe blow against the american economy, and i wonder how react the american stocks markets because this news.

Good luck.

[JacktheCat]

With over a decade of both officer and NCO German backed training under their belt, the Chinese army should be well and truely 'Germanised' now. It will be interesting to see how they perform now the next time TSHF.

Doubly so given Paul Hausser is the 'Godfather of the Chinese Army' in TTL considering that in OTL he was 'Godfather of the Waffen SS'

... and that in OTL his training produced officers like Jochen Peiper.

[Archangel]

China's isolationism is going to be harmful for China's prospects of economic growth and improvement of the life of its citizens. This may lead to more unrest in the future.

Keep it up, rast!

[Expat]

I know the US isn't exactly the smartest nation-state in the cereal box ITTL, but this pending Philippines adventure is a head-scratchingly poor decision. What exactly do they gain from the Philippines? Are we talking resources, or is it a matter of restoring prestige?

I suppose I can see a foreign policy strategy here. If the US wants A/NZ in their sphere of influence it's best to be provocative, show them the dangers of being so close to "enemies," while at the same time making the US look strong. But there's a difference between a low-impact defense of basing rights and a full-on invasion and economic domination.

[Kelenas]

My guess is that it's one part prestige, one part attempt to draw A/NZ into their SoI, and one part economics - McAdoo or someone in his government's apaprently aware the US will need another war/conflict to keep its economy afloat.

- Kelenas

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by nerdknight01

¡ Hi ! INTERESTING !.

-To Expat: ¡ THANKS !, yep, maybe baseball don´t it be to much popular sport around the world, but in América as for myself, i supose that going to be a very popular sport, and one form of cheap entreteinment and one escape valvue against the social and economic problems. In this magnificent timeline i supose that the popular sport around the world will it be soccer.

-Japan´s goverment sounds logic, rational and pacific about the philippine´s situation, but the army or the japanese companies, well....

-For China for one part for some years maybe it be going to isolate to the rest of the world, working in a chinese reconstruction program fixing the disasters created by the civil war. The freacking scary part is that if happen, occur one conflict against the russians because for the moment the chinese army are more or less broken, and if that conflict occur maybe became a fight between russian war tecnology against chinese army numbers.

And for last, ¡ WAIT ! the americans are going/left their money, resources, inversions in China, this is other severe blow against the american economy, and i wonder how react the american stocks markets because this news.

Good luck.

The big problem with China unifying earlier than OTL, and actually gained the resemblance of democracy, was that very few of the problems that plagued OTL Kuomintang China were resolved. China for the foreseeable future will continue to be led by the Yuan Shikai's and Chaing Kai Sheks of the world; former warlords who are prone to cronyism and favoritism, oftentimes putting their own interests before that of the people. China's still extremely backward in the countryside, and more crucially, the rural folk are completely uninvolved with any sort of political acitivity.

Perhaps its just me as being ethnically Chinese that I'm saying this, but when Chiang took over China ITTL, and even when afterwards when he was deposed and they adopted democracy, my gut told me that thing's hadn't really changed fundamentally, if that makes sense at all. With Chaing Kai-Shek falling ITTL, and replaced by Feng, all you saw was one ex-warlord replacing the other.

China going isolationist would also in all likelihood also cause its alliance with Japan to crumble. In all honestly, the Chinese-Japanese alliance was a rather fragile one to begin with; there's too much historical bad blood between the two. The only reason that Japan had allowed itself to become part of the alliance in the first place was because of the disaster of the Chita War, in which Japan had lost nearly all of its colonial possessions except for Korea, which too would have fallen back under Chinese influence had it not signed. In essence, Israel is more likely to pull back from the West Bank than Japan is willing to pull back from Korea as of 1934 ITTL.

For one, I don't think that China is all too pleased with the fact that Vietnam is firmly under Japans interest rather than China's, which it has traditionally been. As for the Vietnamese and how they see it, I'm not sure that they particularly like being junior partners to the Japanese, but its still preferable than China, so at least that makes sense.

Furthermore, while we've been talking about the Phillippines welcoming the Japanese, the big contradition in this record are the Koreans. Even under the Taisho Democracy period of OTL, Japanese colonial rule in Korea remained as draconian as ever. In OTL 1925, the same year that all Japanese men over 25 were given the right to vote, the Korean History Compilation Committee was established, whose purpose was to loot Korean historical artifacts and rewriting Korean history in order to justify Japanese colonization of Korea.

Even with a liberal Japan, I can't imagine that the Japanese rule over Koreans has been exactly benevolent, nor are the Koreans pleased to have the Japanese as their direct overlords. Japan still uses 'special police' to monitor the situation in Korea, and Syngman Rhee had been last found a broken wreck of a man after leading a failed Korean rebellion in the 20s. Its still the big skeleton in the closet for Japan, and its weakest point. (See post #5363)

Therefore, Japan's occupation of Korea is pretty much the only thing preventing the East Asian peoples from wholeheartedly embracing Japan's influence, and could be a hazardous factor that Japan would have to watch out for should it come into proxy conflict with the US over the Phillippines.

You might suggest that Japan could take the action of granting Korea its independance, to show the Phillippinos they indeed intend to be a benevolent force against US imperialism, but even a liberal government won't do so if it means risking Chinese or Russian influence.

Furthermore, I can't imagine that the liberal government would be able to remain in power for long if they suggest such an action, as the conservatives would immediately seize upon that as a notion of weakening Japan's foreign policy interests and abandoning the Japanese colonists that live there to a Korean government that would likely be discriminatory toward the race of their former occupiers.

Russia would be the primary beneficiary of a crumbling of Sino-Japanese relations. If Russia had been forced to fight both China's army and Japan's navy, its one that it cannot hope to win. Yet if Russia can alienate China and Japan that can really work out wonders for them.

As for the Americans, all I've got to say is that we're seeing the latest in a string of completely non-sensical foreign policy blunders from the McAdoo-Hearst freakshow. Considering that the Democratic party has held the presidency for 22 years that, with less than stellar candidates, you'd seriously think that the Republicans would finally get their thumbs out of their assess and kick them out. Scary as it sounds, the Republicans would probably remain as the Progressive Party ITTL USA.

[nerdknight01]

¡ Hi ! to Bmao: ¡ THANKS !.

Yep, for chinese´s politics for some years, and if bad luck events ocur for some decades, will see the era of warlords and egoistic dictators. That class of rulers can to order proyects who improved for better the life of common chinese people, or maybe it be creating epic wrong disasters who cost the life of millons of inocent chinese citizens, willl see....

For Japan, what dangerous game are playing: a totalitarian goverment in Korea, a cold war situation with Russia, the friendly goverment for Phillipines peoples, the defenders of Asian peoples and finnally, maybe and i say it again maybe the next enemy for the americans in the pacific zone, if the play very well this game, the Japanese emipre will rise very high, but if they fail, well let say that will see a deathly disaster.

To Expat: As for myself, i supose that the american´s politices in Philippines are motivated in part for McAdoo wrong world politics, in part for show to the americans common people and the world that are a powerfully nation with a powerfully war navy float after so many draws/defeats, and finally for searshing new economic markets, and for increase the McAdoo armamentistic politics.

Good luck.

[rast]

Such is the human race, often it seems a pity that Noah... didn’t miss the boat.
(Mark Twain)

SMMAS Lindi was steaming off Grande Comore, the largest island of the Comoros, when the sinking dhow was sighted on starboard. Korvettenkapitän (lieutenant commander) Emil Mikuma, the captain of the light cruiser, immediately ordered a change of course towards the floundering ship – and to ready the dinghies.

Forty-five minutes later, Mikumi was staring down on a miserable group of human beings, some thirty or forty men and women, gathering on the deck of his vessel.
“What do you think these are?” he asked the signals midshipman, who was standing by his side.
“I don’t know, Sir. – They don’t look like people from the Comoros.”
“Definitely, I’d guess these pitiful creatures come from Ceylon or India – Greater Mysore that is, to be exact...”

They had been hired as plantation workers for Madagascar, their spokesman, a small grizzled Tamil, explained in poor English, while the ship’s surgeon was translating. But on the ship, they had been sedated and fettered. – The skipper of the dhow and his crew glowered and kept silent. There were no papers of any kind, and if there ever had been any at all, they had vanished with the dhow.

Directive received from Daressalam told Mikuma to bring his passengers to the naval base for further investigation. SMMAS Kasanga would be detached to take over patrolling. Getting the Tamils below deck proved to be quite a challenge, obviously many of them feared to be put in chains again. The grizzled spokesman seemed to enjoy no authority over his compatriots. – The crew of the dhow was secured in the rope store at the prow – and an armed guard put in charge of watching over them.

Arrival in Daressalam Naval Base was quite unspectacular. A convoy of ambulance cars whisked away the Tamils, and a Black Maria swallowed the crew of the dhow. After fifteen minutes, SMMAS Lindi belonged exclusively to her crew again, who now were busy cleaning the vessel – and about to realise that Tamil hygiene standards obviously deviated crossly from those valid in Middle Africa...

Behind the curtains, investigations were started – and the crew of the dhow was given a thorough grilling. What they had to tell was quite interesting. The vessel belonged to a small fleet that regularly ran between Greater Mysore and Madagascar and the Union of South Africa. They took in passengers hired for farm work on Madagascar or in the Union, dazed them with sedatives mixed into the drinking water, and shackled them. In Majunga on Madagascar or Durban in the Union, the slaves were handed over to traders, who sold them to plantation owners or estate administrators.

Obviously, the Union of South Africa and Madagascar, who had grown quite close over the recent years, had re-introduced slavery on their huge agricultural estates and plantations. That plantations were not really profitable without slave labour had already been established in the last century, when the abolition of slavery had rendered hitherto profitable possessions like Haiti and Jamaica worthless over night. Well, and obviously, some important people in Greater Mysore were co-operating in this affair.

The captain of the dhow stated that his business had been running for about seven months, and that he had been one of the first skippers who had been asked to shuttle slaves. He believed that another trade line ran from Burma to Africa.

When the case was presented and discussed in the Council of the First Ministers, the reaction was unanimous: Middle Africa would challenge ultimately the Union of South Africa and the Commonwealth of Madagascar to discontinue slavery immediately – and the Middle African Navy would closely control the waters and capture all slave vessels. Endorsement of this measures from Berlin arrived on the same day. While there was no international convention in force that banned or forbade slavery, capturing slavers and liberating their passengers in international waters had ample historical precedence.

The next surprise, however, happened when diplomats pointed out that slavery was also practised in Ala Ka Kuma, Ethiopia, Al Dzayer and Morocco – the only North African country to have abolished slavery was the Sultanate of Egypt. Obviously, the resolute approach opposite the Union and the Commonwealth could be seen as lopsided – and unjust...

[NHBL]

There were treaties and precedents concerning slavery and the slave trade. The Royal Navy considered it equal to piracy, and the USA also had a squadron didicated to suppressing the slave trade up until the Civil War. The various treaties and policies have never, so far as I know, been repealed.

Thus, there is precedent--Germany could make the same declaration without going into unexplored territory--as could Middle Africa. Unless the various slaveholding countries are willing to, first of all, admit to being slave economys, and then risking war with Germany and Middle Africa, the action should hold nicely.

Publish a warning--then start hanging slavers from their own yardarms. (Just officers early on--unless a ship atempts to escape--then the entire crew. That will encourage crew to mutiny if ordered to run or resist. Any crew member captured a second time hangs.)

Also, add a provision to the declaration that ships equipped as slavers will be treated as slavers, so they don't dump slaves overboard at the sight of a German warship.

Heavy handed--but will make Germany look good to a lot of civilized countries. (Invite other nations to come onboard, such as Britian--British policy would be, I think, still officially in force, so the British don't have to make any major changes.)

(Credit to David Weber for the Equipment Clause, and the idea of executing ALL second offenders...I LIKE Manticore's method of dealing with slavers, though it's a wee bit too lenient, IMVHO.)

[Expat]

Wikisource directs me to the Congress of Vienna, and Germany's still seen as the successor to Prussia ITTL, right?

So these are non-white, non-aligned African countries importing South Asian slaves. This could be the set up for a huge diplomatic grand slam on the part of...well, anybody who wants a Nobel Peace Prize.

As this world has seen much less grand, pointless internationalism, this seems like the perfect place to start. Who wouldn't sign on to an agreement to ban the international slave trade? This is something even the US would sign on to in principle (though maybe not in practice, just to be dicks.)

It's largely symbolic, as Mittelafrika will be doing most of the work. It scores points with the Aryan Alliance and the East Asian Alliance whose people are being taken. The Ottomans like it because it probably drives the currently un-protected North African states scrambling for a strong ally- and where else do they turn but to the Ottomans? (After they've signed the agreement, of course.)

Everybody gets to feel good about themselves for reaffirming their morality on the world stage.

Something that could easily occur concurrent to that of course is a giant power grab by the Mittelafrikans. Though Mozambique, Rhodesia, and the Cape block them from South Africa, they could always invade Madagascar. Even if it's large-scale raids and not for keeps, they're always looking for ways to keep the army trained and to continue forging a national identity.

I assume the Comoros are still French, is that the case?

[Monty Burns]

I think the slave trade could become very beneficial for the development of Mittelafrika.

• the Mittelafrikans will be seen as the modern, morally superior Africans.
• the Mittelafrikans will be confronted with liberated slaves. Will they send them back to those countries that allowed them to be sold? If not then another immigrant group is established within Mittelafrika which deserves their pity and may change their treatment of immigrants altogether. Even if not, it adds to the cultural diversity of Mittelafrika, which should be beneficial and could limit tribalism even more.
• Mittelafrika will concentrate its politics on neighbouring countries and the Indian ocean - away from the superior US and into multi-layered, complicated foreign politics. Brute force could hardly be a solution given that all independent African countries would have to be invaded then - plus some Asian nations.
• it's possible that the Ottomans and the Mittelafrikans cooperate in this issue.
• the realization that African nations practice slavery might limit racism within Mittelafrika.

On the other side, it's very possible that Mittelafrika chooses the hard way to make a point. The strong influence of the military certainly comes into mind.

[rast]

A communist is like a crocodile: when it opens its mouth you cannot tell whether it is trying to smile or preparing to eat you up.
(Winston Churchill)

Prime Minister Sir Oswald Mosley was sitting in his office in rebuilt Downing Street Number Ten and reading records. While most of the stuff was utterly boring, he finally got stuck with a bundle of state security files. Perusing these documents, Mosley’s face went from languid to agitated. Now, wasn’t this nefarious? These obnoxious backstabbers! He scribbled down some notes on his leaflet for the cabinet meeting tomorrow morning.

“All right, Ladies and Gentlemen, I assume you have read these here...” Mosley was brandishing the MI5 reports, which had caught his attention yesterday evening. While some cabinet members obviously had not, judging from their vapid or asking faces, Sylvia Pankhurst, Harry Pollit and ‘Major’ Clement Attlee certainly had.
“Yes, this is unbelievable; a true attest of capitalist infamy!” hissed Pankhurst.
“We can’t allow this to continue...” rumbled Pollit.
“It’s a shame!” chimed in Attlee. “We must put a stop to this infamous game, mustn’t we?”

“These people know no gratitude.” vociferated Mosley indignantly. “I had thought they would appreciate our moderation; but that apparently only emboldened them...”
“Hell, whom are you talking about?” injected Rajani Palme Dutt, the Secretary of State for War, who ostensibly had not studied the files in question.

“It’s the farmers.” explained Pankhurst. “Or to be precise: the large landowners, including the nobility. – You know, we refrained from socialising agriculture again after the Civil War – and expected them to co-operate...”
“Well, they do; our food situation is good, as far as I know, ain’t it? There are no shortages, everything is fine.” interposed Albert Victor Alexander, the Lord Privy Seal. “So, what the heck is up?”

“There’s a conspiracy to overthrow us!” spluttered Attlee. “It’s not the common farmers; it’s the landed gentry, the peerage and the landowning capitalists; they’re plotting against us!”
“Churchillians again?” inquired Arthur Henderson, the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. “Good God, I thought that chapter was closed...”

“Oh, there certainly are links to Churchill and his cronies in the US, but the head of the conspiracy this time seems to be the Duke of Bedford...” explained Pankhurst. “Quite a surprise, this. – His wife was a renowned suffragette in her youth, and she’s a dedicated aviator...”
“Damn, I don’t care about the Duchess.” squeaked Palme Dutt, “What about their military arm? Who will fight for them?”
“The conservatives in army, navy and air force – there are still serving enough of them... – We should have purged the armed forces more thoroughly.” ranted Pollit. “Your policy of forgive and forget was too lax, Comrade Oswald. These people must be subdued just like the industrialists and bankers – let’s hang the leaders and put the rest of them into work camps!”

“Definitely! Let’s act before they do it!” barked Palme Dutt. “We don’t need another civil war! – Let’s task the loyal troops, the secret police and the controllers – and let’s get rid of this menace!”
“Ladies and Gentlemen, you’ve heard Comrade Rajani’s proposal. – Do you agree? Those who do, please raise your hand.” Sir Oswald was counting. “Yes, thank you, that’s with one accord. – May I ask you, Comrade Sylvia, in conjunction with Comrades Harry, Rajani and John, to work out the details? – Let me know when you’re ready... – And, please, keep in mind, we must act quickly and keep the secret until we’re ready to strike.”

[zeppelin247]

somehow I can see this not ending well, it is going to leave the British with an army like the Soviets at start of world war two completely purged of quality and not ready for war so god help them if another war starts

[Decrian]

Originally Posted by zeppelin247

somehow I can see this not ending well, it is going to leave the British with an army like the Soviets at start of world war two completely purged of quality and not ready for war so god help them if another war starts

I do actually think that a purge will leave the Royal Navy in a worse position than the army. IIRC a huge part of the RN officer corps was loyal to Churchill in the civil war. If a hard purge happens the RN will be left with a lot of ships and sailors but no experience officers which will greatly reduce the combat power of the fleet.