A Shift in Priorities

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Jotun

Basically retroactively endorsing the whole mess? Riiight...

It might be that the Germans have no other choice by now. What can they do about Mittelafrika? Their colonies are less and less dependent on German money, yet on the other hand provide more and more trade opportunities for Germany. Postponing independence is pretty much impossible as well.

The only viable way to weaken Mittelafrika is to partition it and rely more on the backward parts/immigrants, and even that will require a referendum by now, the outcome of which is uncertain.

Mittelafrika is independent by all but the name. If Germany ends subsidizing its colonies it will weaken them, but there's already a foreign enemy to rally against and overcome that loss...

[Peabody-Martini]

I do not see the mission as a failure, the targets were high value warships more often than not with escorts. The US Navy will have reports of sub attacks by unknown forces, any wreckage recovered would seem to point to Mexico. How McAdoo's ability to make the wrong call in any given situation will come into play has yet to be seen. The reaction of the American public will probably border on on total apathy. "You expect us to be outraged by attacks on our ships by a country we are already at war with".

Rosa Luxemburg will figure out rather quickly what has been going on in Middle Africa, however her beef was with MA agents trespassing on her turf. Her reaction that a covert war has been carried on against the US through Mexico would be complicated. Officially she should be outraged at Max Bauer for exceeding orders and misappropriation of state resources, personally its another story.

In the current geopolitical assessments seen its in European and Asian interests that the US that the US military remains focused on Mexico and the Caribbean. At the same time the nations of South America have to be looking north with alarm in what seems to be getting ever closer to their own borders.

[Shogo]

Haha. I think the best part was that one of the subs got taken out by a destroyer deciding to ram it.

[Kelenas]

I'm not so sure the Middle Africans can just afford to ignore the possibility of Germany getting pissed at them.
True, MA is a notable export market for Germany, but frankly I think rast might over-estimate, or exaggerate, its importance. And as important as MA might (or might not) be as an export market for Germany, it completely and utterly dwarfs the importance Germany - and the German-led CPMZ/COMECON - has for MA as a trade partner.
Not to mention other areas, such as professional, technical, or scientific expertise.

Alienating Germany and its political or economic constructs might not have much of an impact on Middle Africa in the short term. But in the long term, it would severely hamper their development.

- Kelenas

[TemplarKnight]

Originally Posted by Kelenas

Well, that certainly was a fiasco for the Middle Africans. Wonder how this'll go over with Bauer or the Middle African Admiral who authorized this.
- Kelenas

Hardly, that was a submariners dream. For the loss of 6 subs and 3 more damaged, they did the following;
sank 1 CVE, 3 crusiers/light cruisers, 2 auxiliary cruisers, 2 destroyers, 1 tanker and 2 freighters. In addition they also damaged a BB, another CVE, a cruiser, a blockade ship and 2 destroyers.

While I'm sure that some, maybe most of the crews were rescued, losing that many naval assets in 24-36 hours, plus how many trained crew members is the real fiasco. Thats an awful lot of "The Secretary of War deeply regrets..." telegrams to send out.

And on a totally different note, I've read this entire timeline and enjoyed it.... thanks and keep up the good work.

[Shogo]

Considering that the USN wasn't exactly expecting sub attacks, it's more a victory for the USN then the MA subs. Especially once they decide to step up anti-sub action as a result.

It wasn't a failure on MA's part, but it was hardly a victory.

[Kelenas]

Originally Posted by TemplarKnight

Hardly, that was a submariners dream. For the loss of 6 subs and 3 more damaged, they did the following;
sank 1 CVE, 3 crusiers/light cruisers, 2 auxiliary cruisers, 2 destroyers, 1 tanker and 2 freighters. In addition they also damaged a BB, another CVE, a cruiser, a blockade ship and 2 destroyers.

While I'm sure that some, maybe most of the crews were rescued, losing that many naval assets in 24-36 hours, plus how many trained crew members is the real fiasco. Thats an awful lot of "The Secretary of War deeply regrets..." telegrams to send out.

And on a totally different note, I've read this entire timeline and enjoyed it.... thanks and keep up the good work.

Except those 9 subs represent 3/4ths of the Middle African's / Mexico's naval strength in the area. By comparison, the only really hurtful loss for the USN was the carrier, and the US can replace those losses in men and ships easier than the Middle Africans/Mexicans can, meaning there's little real impact to the USN blockade.

Frankly Mexico probably would have been better served if they'd hired the MA submarines for smuggling war materials into Mexico, rather than as combat vessels.

- Kelenas

[Reichenfaust]

yea that was a fail of an attack. See Shogo, the MA's are not invincible, and this may not be the total defeat and humiliation you wanted for them and the mexicans but it is something right (lol)

[sloreck]

From the descriptions of the attacks, there were probably some survivors, and the boats destroyed on the surface would have been clearly identified as to what they were (Mexican markings aside). while "legally" the boats were "Mexican" as were the crews, this is a charade that at best will keep the crews from being branded pirates but will fool nobody in terms of who they really belonged to and who was running the op.

There will be diplomatic hell to pay at a minimum, and the Germans are now in a very awkward position. Furthermore US forces can play that game..aircraft/ships etc flying the flag of the Venezuelan government in exile attacking Venezuela, or even "exile" subs attacking MA shipping....

[nerdknight01]

¡ Hi ! to Templarknight: ¡ WELCOME !.

Peace.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Kelenas

I'm not so sure the Middle Africans can just afford to ignore the possibility of Germany getting pissed at them.
True, MA is a notable export market for Germany, but frankly I think rast might over-estimate, or exaggerate, its importance. And as important as MA might (or might not) be as an export market for Germany, it completely and utterly dwarfs the importance Germany - and the German-led CPMZ/COMECON - has for MA as a trade partner.
Not to mention other areas, such as professional, technical, or scientific expertise.

Alienating Germany and its political or economic constructs might not have much of an impact on Middle Africa in the short term. But in the long term, it would severely hamper their development.

- Kelenas

You're right that good relations with Germany are a major benefit for MA, I didn't deny that. I just think that the military might be more concerned about fighting the US than long-term economic benefits. From the recent posts, it seems that some sort of manifest destiny is arising/has arised among the MA military which concentrates on helping the Blacks in the Americas. It wouldn't go well if Germany tries to prohibit that - also given that the training mission so far was extremely successful and that Mexican ambassador will likely rally Middleafricans for prolongued support.

A heavily militarized state with a missionary goal and a rapid recent development likely resulting in overestimating themselves is a bad mixture. Therefore I think there is a possibility that MA decides not to listen to Germany anymore but to keep the fight in the Americas.

As you said, that will hamper their development in the long term.

[nerdknight01]

¡ Hi ! ¡ WHOA !.

As for myself, yep, the middleafricans will losen a big number of ships, BUT:

1.-The McAdoo´s goverment how can explain to the common people and american citizens about that some controled, watched zone by the american navy, in one instant lose some carrier and other ships by submarines.

2.-Some weeks earlier the mexican´s guerrilas don´t it be having any naval power and now, well...

3.-This submarine´s combat was a wake up situation for the Germany´s navy about some problems..

4.-For the middleafricans this battle is a motive of pride and trust for the new country, and is a lesson can show, teach his power in another continent as América.

5.-This battle it going to increase the sense of paranoia in common american citizens, the McAdoo goverment maybe it be going to waste more money in armaments obsolete programs and not for salving the internal economy.

6.-And finnally, the american´s navy because this battle maybe will see the carrier as some kind of how to say, obsolete, easy to send to the botton of the sea class of ship, and because this, less carriers and more battleships, and in the next scary big bar against some moder power, welll...

Peace, good night and good luck.

[rast]

Happy shall he be, that taketh and dasheth thy little ones against the stones.
(Bible – Psalm 137:9)

Vice Admiral David Worth Bagley felt content; the precautions he had urged upon his outfit after that mysterious submarine incident near Baitiquri Bay had nicely impinged on the hostile submarines attacking on February 12th.
As far as he could tell, at least six – if not even eight – enemy submarines had been destroyed within few hours after the initial attacks.
The loss of USS Crillon, USS Cedar Rapids, USS Raleigh and two destroyers was – of course – painful, but had no consequences for operations. His command was strong enough to carry on without any restrictions.

The most annoying thing was perhaps that tanker sunk in the approach channel to the Gatún Locks, which barred use of the Panama Canal until removed.

USS Luce had fished some dead enemy submarine sailors out of the water: Niggers with Mexican badges, Mexican passports and Mexican military ID cards. But their clothes had been made in Middle Africa, and one of them had still carried a German cockade and a Middle African lion badge in his pocket…

So, these unsavoury Middle Africans were back again. This put quite a different light on the submarine incident at Baitiquri Bay, the radio station near Caracas – and the strange fate of that FSO spy ship and the disappearance of an FSO agent in Venezuela…
He had already reported to Washington about his findings – and had been given green light for action in Venezuelan waters.

Subsequently, he had dispatched his submarine flotilla for reconnaissance along the Venezuelan shores. Somewhere down south, these hostile submarines had to have their bases. It was impossible that they had come from Mexico proper.

Bagley was one of the few who knew about the capture of MAU 31 in late August 1930. Thus, he did not press for urgently salvaging the hostile submarine that USS Luce had rammed and sunk. The boat was lying in a depth of fifteen metres, easily accessible for navy divers. One could hoist it at leisure – just to see what improvements the Germans had made, although he did not think that they would provide their newest technical developments to their Nigger clientele…

There still were hostile subs around. A troop transport had been attacked and sunk off Havanna this morning. The escorts had been kept busy saving the Marines, thus the assailant had escaped unscathed. This unpleasant event had – for the time being – stopped the transfer of Marine Corps soldiers to Cuba, where they were to relieve the army units currently deployed. Approximately 200 Marines had drowned.

Another hostile sub had been detected by one of the hunter-killer groups Bagley had created after the Baitiquri incident. Consisting of three destroyers, these groups normally floated in an area without engines running, just listening into the water for strange noises. When hearing submerged engine noise or sighting a snorkel, such a group would suddenly spring to life and attack. – In this special case, the sub seemed to have escaped by stopping its engines when those of the hunter-killer group had started up – and drifting away with the ocean current without having been caught in one of the asdic cones emitted by the destroyers.

In addition, airplanes from USS Bumblebee had sighted a snorkel and attacked with depth charges, but unfortunately one couldn’t tell whether this attack had been successful. – At least, under certain weather conditions, aircraft were useful in finding subs travelling submerged using snorkels, while the boat had no possibility to spot the planes.

Bagley wondered how many submarines the Mexicans might have bought from the Germans. The rebels certainly had the financial means to pay for quite a lot. Would there also be German crews? – Or had the Germans assigned solely their Nigger underlings to this dangerous task?

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by rast

Bagley wondered how many submarines the Mexicans might have bought from the Germans. The rebels certainly had the financial means to pay for quite a lot. Would there also be German crews? – Or had the Germans assigned solely their Nigger underlings to this dangerous task?

I understand this as the US accepting volunteers and equipment to be bought/lend without this being an act of war. That is good for the Germans - and also for MA. I'm not sure, though, whether the European allies would feel the same way about Germany seemingly provoking the US.

Given the general trend ITTL, and in particular the record of the McAdoo administration, I guess US provocations toward Germany are about to begin soon...

[rast]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

I understand this as the US accepting volunteers and equipment to be bought/lend without this being an act of war.

One admiral of the US Navy, who has made ample experiences with Middle Africans, sees this at face value; what his political masters will make of it may be quite another kind of fish...

[wietze]

I guess it is the build up of the rules of engagement for proxy wars in this TL.

No doubt the Americans have spies in Germany too.

I am thinking it would be greatly ironic if the Germans learn about the MA adventures in the Americas from a captured American spy.

[nerdknight01]

¡ Hi ! ¡ GOOD !.

Vice Admiral Bagley sounds a logic and rational guy, and he it be having the mind and soul for see clear and correct the situations and the reality, this is a example of the correct people in the correct work, but i can feel that maybe, and say maybe he will choose, pick bad answers for certain big problems and situations because "bad/wrong information", in short: he maybe will became a tragic character in the future, will see...

That future attack to Venezuelan ports it will be some amazing event, for good or bad, and maybe this event will be the " spack " for some kind of how to say, arms race in Germany or in the worst situation in all Europe, in short: the beggining of fear of a new TAW.

And finnally, Bagley he can see some kind of voluntaries, mercenaries, mexican citizens,etc.. in that submarine´s prisioners, but the McAdoo´s goverment can blame for the attack to the Venezuelans, the mexican guerrillas, the middleafricans, the germans, etc..., in some time McAdoo maybe will attack another big power, and maybe the only wall for that situation is the start/meltdown/crash of the american economy, what i try to say is: who is better for american good citizens, a bloody war with another big power, or some kind of "awakening" of the economy/enviromental disaster, in short what is the best of two problems to choose, elect.

Peace.

[rast]

Withhold not correction from the child: for if thou beatest him with the rod, he shall not die.
(Bible – Proverbs 23:13)

Dumbstruck, Konrad Adenauer stared at the telegram he had just received from the embassy in Washington. The McAdoo administration was sharply protesting against German aid to the Mexican rebels and was threatening to implement retaliatory measures if Germany didn’t stop delivering armaments and personnel to the Mexican insurgents.

What was this? Another US impertinence? – Adenauer read on.
German submarines with Mexican markings – and Middle African soldiers with Mexican passports?

Phoning Willy Solf, the minister for colonial affairs, didn’t shed light to the matter. Solf knew of nothing. But he promised to send a telegram to Heinrich von Schnee immediately.

As an experienced party politician, Adenauer made some calculations. – Whatever the Middle Africans might have done or not, the timing of the US démarche was rather unfortunate. In the midst of the German electoral campaign all ruling parties could not gain by giving in to US pressure. The voters definitely would punish leniency opposite the Amis. – He thought that the PDS – and namely Miss Luxemburg – would raise the question of legitimacy of the US puppet president in Mexico. They certainly would go for recognising Cárdenas as legitimate president of Mexico. That would provoke a strong US reaction… – but it would be popular with the voters – and with the other socialist governments in Europe, who might follow suit…

Concerning the Middle African arbitrary acts, Adenauer believed these could easily be stopped by ordering them to stop. Perhaps some leading figures had to be replaced, but that shouldn’t cause frictions…

The extraordinary cabinet meeting in the evening of Tuesday, February 14th, 1933, became rather tumultuous. Plenipotentiary von Schnee had turned out to be as ignorant as Adenauer and Solf, but had passed the request for information to General von Bauer. Von Bauer had only replied when finally been ordered to do so by minister of war Theodor Heuß. – His answer, however, was as short as possible and revealed only the fact that twelve submarines had been lend to Mexico and that twelve crews had volunteered to become Mexican citizens and fight for Mexico – and that three freighters had also been lend as support echelon.

While Erzberger and Adenauer maintained that such a decision could not be made by a general in the field, but only here in the cabinet; the PDS ministers – as Adenauer had foreseen – raised the question which Mexican president should be considered legitimate. Luxemburg, who – due to the ongoing electoral campaign – had yet been unable to implement her planned inspection of Middle African affairs, insisted that Lázaro Cárdenas had been elected by the free portion of the Mexican population – and therefore was the legitimate president.
She condemned Adenauer’s cheesy policy opposite the Mexican question. One was obliged to support Mexican democracy against the machinations of the US American imperialists. Germany ought to recognise the Cárdenas government; therefore General von Bauer had done the right thing – although the procedure had been wrong.

“Do you want another Trans-Atlantic War?” asked Adenauer in dismay.
“No, of course not.” replied Luxemburg. “But we should not continue appeasing the US by recognising that dwarfish puppet García Álvarez – and ignoring the fact that their navy is blockading free and independent nations. – Believe me, appeasement is the wrong way of dealing with these obdurate Americans. They must know that they cannot do what they want with other nations only because these are situated on the American double-continent. The Monroe Doctrine is a vehicle of US imperialism; we must not accept it as something that should guide our behaviour.”
“It’s like a set of dominos; once we say García Álvarez is a US puppet and we recognise Cárdenas instead, the same will have to happen with Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and all of Central America!”
“Well, that would be honest at least. – These people are fighting for their liberty – and all we do – thanks to your wishy-washy policy – is watching the spectacle. – I say: Let’s adhere to the principle of national self-determination and recognise the legitimate governments of these countries!”

In the end – because the Zentrum politicians would not risk to be seen as friends of the US in public – Luxemburg got her way: The US démarche was answered with a German démarche declaring that Germany considered Lázaro Cárdenas the legitimate president of Mexico – and that Germany saw no reason not to provide armaments and voluntary helpers to his government and the Mexican people.

Within 48 hours, Denmark, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Portugal, Spain, and Italy followed suit, while the socialist minority government of Sweden was still negotiating the matter with the farmers’ party – and the conservative governments of Hungary and Bulgaria dragged their feet.

[paulo]

Bad day to be US citizen....

[Kelenas]

I wonder what this'll mean for the conflicts in Mexico and the Caribbean. Increased support by various European governments sending weapons and volunteers to the various rebels and guerillas?

Perhaps this will become another one of rast's ironies (though a far less amusing one) in that the Europeans support those resistance movements in Mexico and the Caribbean, only to get it blown back into their face when their own countries are later swamped with drugs sold by the former rebels. Much like the USA now being the target of the same terrorists it originally supported during the Cold War against the USSR.

- Kelenas