A Shift in Priorities

[SavoyTruffle]

And then the Germans were winning.

[Expat]

Hey, 5000 posts! Congratulations, Rast!

I have to agree with Seydlitz-Kurzbach. I can't imagine a Spanish war without guerrillas. Even if this is an in-and-out operation the Germans will have to tangle with them at least a little bit. It also would've been nice if the Spanish could've been invited on this campaign for legitimacy's sake. Who better to scout for the likes of that ford?

[Peabody-Martini]

Whether or not the Spanish turn to Guerrilla warfare depends on the extent that the Intervention forces are seen as occupiers. Some things to consider. Once through Talavera the road is clear into Madrid. Once the capital falls the Coupists will be left scrambling first to save themselves, then to continue the civil war.

A guerrilla campaign takes time to gain enough momentum to have an impact. If by that time the foreign troops are withdrawing and elections are underway, those brave patriot fighters up in the hills become bad for business at which point it sucks to be them.

Lastly, there is the part with Franco being buried with full military honors. In a largely Catholic country such as Spain how a person gets treated in death is often as important as how they were treated in life. It's a question of respect, by their actions the Germans are acknowledging that Spanish are equals. Something that previous invaders never did.

Or I could be wrong.

[Jotun]

That military burial for General Franco was a chivalrous gesture. He went down leading his troops and died honorably which is a lot more than can be said of most guerrilla leaders. If this doesn't go down well with the putschists, I don't know what else will.

[Expat]

Considering their attitude before they left the capital to take command of the various fronts, it might encourage them to more readily fall on their enemy's swords.

[Peabody-Martini]

What was it that Patton said about being perfectly happy to have his enemies die for their country.

[ANARCHY_4_ALL]

On Franco's fate ITTL compared to OTL. It reminds me of the phrase, better to die believing you're a hero than to live knowing you're a tyrant.

[nerdknight01]

¡ hi ! ¡ FRANCO IS DEATH !
About the spanish situation, i belived that the winning factor for the european armies are that in this case have respected the spanish population, and have informed to the spanish that are restauring the true goverment and the spanish king and the democratic goverment, and the allied armies will go after this and there are not intencions of conquer Spain, and the allies have a logic and rational use of tools of information like air panplets, and the final argument about his good intencions be the help who be given to the ordinary spanish people like medical services provided for the armies, free food, security, military personal for reconstruction process, etc....
One last idea, for the better future of Spain i like the fact that the more fanatical, closed mind, and reactionaries people like Franco, his troops, etc.. are dying in combat, and because this are high chances that spain become a country more tolerant, and this is a good news, thanks and good luck

[rast]

Les affairs sont les affairs.
(Business is business – French proverb)

With dismissing contempt Colonel Charles de Gaulle looked at the debating politicians, who were just entering the conference building.
The bunch of them, Frenchmen, Germans and Italians, had descended on Perpignan yesterday. He, the commanding officer of the 24e Régiment d’Infanterie, had been tasked with providing the security for the event.
They were discussing the disappointing development of the intervention in Spain. De Gaulle could have told them beforehand that this enterprise was going to abort. The forces authorised were far too small. The politicians had expected the Spaniards to welcome and support the troops. And the jacking points had been chosen wrongly.

Instead of sending the French contingent through the relatively dry Eastern Pyrenees, they had been ordered to advance through the cold and damp Western Pyrenees, where rain, snow and ice made all movement of large formations impossible. The objective had been to occupy Carlist Navarra and to neutralise the Requete militias. This mission had failed miserably; and the French media were now crying for the dismissal of Maréchal Franchet d’Espèry, while the Requetes had successfully invaded the Basque region and were accused of indiscriminately killing the civilian population.

The Germans had bogged down in front of Talavera de la Reina and now were embroiled in ugly guerrilla warfare along their lines of communication. Opposing them was General Queipo de Llano, who had taken over after General Franco’s heroic death – and who obviously had managed to incite the population to armed resistance against the foreign invaders. The quick dash to Madrid thus had failed as well.

The worst defeat, however, was that of the Italians. Landing in an area under control of the democratic factions, they wantonly had neglected security measures – and had been driven into the sea by a forceful surprise attack of the reactionaries. The victor, Rebel General Sanjurjo, was at present marching on Valencia, threatening to conquer the whole southern part of the democrats’ territory.

Now, the politicians were debating how to save the situation.
Of course, the default solution was despatching more and better troops. – But there also was considerable domestic resistance against sending more soldiers; in all three countries strong elements of the population protested against involvement in a new war. The French UNAC, the war veterans organisation, was staging silent vigils and protest marches; Henri Pichot, the UNAC placed minister for international conciliation, had resigned in protest. In Germany, the women’s organisations had taken the streets and were campaigning against war and violence. And in Southern Italy, the farmers were protesting, fearing Spanish business competition once Spain was integrated into the COMECON, while the Holy See in Rome promoted a negotiated solution that protected the church in Spain.

De Gaulle felt considerable sympathy for the Spanish rebels. The French centre-left government had removed him from the seat of power, Paris, and sent him to Perpignan at back of beyond. He, who had been the aide-de-camp of Maréchal Pétain, had been given a simple line infantry regiment!
The European powers supported communists and anarchists in Spain. This was no good. Simple socialists already were a plague; communists and anarchists were even worse. The Spanish disease easily could spread to France, where socialists and communists were already in union. Not the Spanish Rebel Generals were the danger to be feared, the Reds were the real enemies!

But these politicians weren’t interested in his opinion. He was to provide the external security, nothing more. Most probably, they even didn’t know his name.
Marèchal Pétain had gone to Spain when he had fallen from power. De Gaulle wondered whether he might have any ties with the rebel generals.

[altamiro]

Is it a lead-up to an epic battle between Charles de Gaulle and Erwin Rommel???

[Peabody-Martini]

I'm not sure that Rommel is the best fit for operations in Spain. He's the guy who you want around when a clutch victory is required while skirting the edge of disaster. I think that eventually this TL will have Rommel leading a fully equipped and supported army group on a campaign that make North Africa seem like small potato's. At the moment however he's a two star general with a reputation for bold but reckless actions. The rest of the OKW will have to catch up when they realize that what he was doing was the first glimpses of something. Blitzkrieg.

What's needed in Spain is a different sort of operator for a different sort of war. They need someone who can see the big picture and be flexible enough to act accordingly.

Also the Germans have under their command some of the most experienced guerrilla fighters in the world. They just need to get them to come up from Middle Africa.

As for de Gaulle if he crosses over and joins the Spanish Carlists. I hope he has plenty of time to think about the folly of switching to what seems to be the winning side with his back to a wall as live cartridges and one blank are being loaded a few yards away. This is because this version of the SCW reminds me a lot of debates surrounding the American CW that boil down to the consensus that even if the rebels win, they still lose.

[Bmao]

That could backfire though; sending Mittleafrikans to fight in Spain. That would be immediately exploited by the reactionary rebels in Spain who can cry; 'The Germans are using their Negros to do their dirty work' or something along those lines. Spain is still a rather racist society, and unfortunately, using Middle africans might turn some of the socialist Spanish forces toward that of the reactionaries based on simple racism. Furthermore, while the Middleafrikans are extremely excellent fighters, they're just as ignorant of Spain's terrain as all the others; they don't speak Spanish, they can't blend in with the population (because of skin color), and as stated before, would face a populace that is more than likely still racist against non-Europeans.

By the way, we mentioned De Gaulle, but I forgot what happened to Charles Mauras. IIRC, he was basically banished into political exile following the assassination of Kaiser Wilhelm III, but with unpopularity with the war growing in France, could this be a chance for him to re-emerge? If not De Gaulle and Maurass, what about other French right-wing elements? They could easily rail against the leftist French regime and accuse them of wanting to escalate the conflict into a second Great War, while doing so being the Germans lapdog.

[Peabody-Martini]

Sorry if Iwas unclear. I didn't mean using the Middle Africans directly against the Spanish guerrillas. I was talking about picking their brains, use what was learned in Haiti.

[Kelenas]

Do they actually need to, though? If the German military needs an expert on Guerilla warfare they can always ask Lettow-Vorbeck, given that he's basically the guy who taught the Middle Africans how to do irregular warfare...

- Kelenas

[Monty Burns]

I think we're going to far here. The Spanish population by and large supported democracy. Even if many of them are against the intervention, I think rast will show us the other, democratic side soon. There must be Spaniards supporting the Europeans - or rather, grudgingly accepting them as their sole chance.

Anyway, what already can be said is that early interventionism ITTL mostly failed. Spain at least so far didn't work out as expected. Greece ended effectively with a failed state with mass emmigration as its sole hope. Serbia was a success, though. I think public opinion ITTL will come to the conclusion that interventions are successful in preventing an international war, but fail in civil wars, at least without careful preparations and full support of a sufficient number of locals. That is actually a good thing to learn...

[Jotun]

The list of lessons to be gleaned from this latest military operation grows longer.
The German army at least should in one form or another realize what decisive roles irregular troops or at least regular troops with an irregular mission profile can play. Especially the Mittelafrikans' experiences in the Caribbean but also being on the receiving end of a vigorous guerilla movement should lead to a new appreciation of what a handful of good troops can accomplish behind enemy lines.
Hindering enemy movement, offing enemy key personnel, and, perhaps most importantly- bind troops in numbers far disproportionate to their own numbers...

[rast]

There are no mistakes, only lessons.
(Chinese proverb)

“When more than three thousand Tiĕjiăs, one thousand five hundred mechanised infantry fighting vehicles and eight hundred assault guns started their engines in the morning of Tuesday, December 8th, 1931, the noise was so immense that is was even audible in Beijing, some 120 kilometres away.
The death of General Li Zongren had only briefly paralysed the armoured host. General Liou Zhuàng-tan, the legendary leader of the parachute assault on Beijing in 1926, had smoothly taken over responsibility as new leader. Together with Major General Bai Chongxi, the Chief of Staff and operational master mind of the armoured host, Liou had thoroughly planned the advance on Beijing.

He had taken great care to inform and teach his men how Prime Minister Chiang had changed from the once valiant unifier of China to a ruthless tyrant, who did not hesitate to abduct innocent young women for the sake of his evil cravings. Chiang had mutated into a murderer and torturer, a war lord, who no longer cared for the fate of the Chinese people.
The troops, who for so long a time had been isolated from Central China – and had come to see General Li as their chief, had honestly mourned Li – and in a huge gathering at his funeral finally had acclaimed Liou as their new leader.

This time, there would be no airborne assault on the capital. The Air Force was still loyal to Chiang, at least the higher echelons, while quite a number of aircrews had already changed sides by landing their planes on the territory held by the armoured host. Unfortunately, these could not be formed into a loyal bomber force; only a small fighter outfit – mostly experienced survivors of the air battles in Xinjiang – was available.

Neverthelss, the armoured host was irrestible – and the advance reached Beijing on December 10th. This time, there was no desperate struggle for the Forbidden City: Prime Minister Chiang and the Xuantong Emperor had fled to Guangzhou...
Only weak forces had been left behind, which quickly surrendered when facing an overwhelming opponent.

Prime Minister Chiang had made a grave mistake when sending his best troops to Xinjiang. But he had made another – even graver mistake – by fleeing to Guangzhou.
Guangxi, neighbouring Guangdong Province, was the home of the Parachute Corps. On hearing that General Liou was leading the anti-Chiang forces, the paratroopers had removed all officers and NCOs known or suspected to be loyal to Chiang – and had marched on Guangzhou.

By late afternoon of December 10th, 1931, Prime Minister Chiang was dead – and the Xuantong Emperor had been liberated.”

Taken from: “The Making of Modern China” by Wu Hào-Ye, Shanghai, Tan & Wan Publishing House, 1952

[Bmao]

What a pitiful end for Chiang... would have thought he'd have at least gone down fighting. At least now, finally, we can have stability in China. Furthermore, the Turks no longer have to fear the Chinese interfering in Xinjiang, and Muharip has gotta be sipping his tea in satisfaction in Shanghai for a job well done... However, I'm wondering how the new military junta is going to establish the same kind of magnetism and respect that Chiang possessed.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

I think we're going to far here. The Spanish population by and large supported democracy. Even if many of them are against the intervention, I think rast will show us the other, democratic side soon. There must be Spaniards supporting the Europeans - or rather, grudgingly accepting them as their sole chance.

Anyway, what already can be said is that early interventionism ITTL mostly failed. Spain at least so far didn't work out as expected. Greece ended effectively with a failed state with mass emmigration as its sole hope. Serbia was a success, though. I think public opinion ITTL will come to the conclusion that interventions are successful in preventing an international war, but fail in civil wars, at least without careful preparations and full support of a sufficient number of locals. That is actually a good thing to learn...

The truth is, Greece had already been wrecked beyond repair by Venizelos' police state, followed by Pangelos' madness. Greece's current situation, while bad as it is, would have been far worse without intervention, and indeed it was hovering at the status of failed state.

I think what rast wanted to portray was that after the successful interventions in Serbia, Greece, and England, the CPMZ figured that it would have another easy success in Spain, and failed to make the necessary preparations to achieve this, and that I'm questioning whether the level of political will exists in France and Italy to come up with the level of force and commitment necessary for the Spanish intervention to succeed.

[nerdknight01]

¡ Hi ! about De Gaulle maybe he is to beginning to belived that chaning sides is a good idea, maybe for some time he be observing and neutral, and when see that the winning card in the spanish civil war are in the hands of the allies, maybe he be learning a nice leason. And when De Gaulle see the negotiations "behind close doors" between the alllies and the spanish wright groups, the catolic church, the conservative industrials, etc..after the allied victory, maybe he can learned that acords, pacts and treaties with the left are a real and a good option.
About China, i really like to see how the China military group now fixed that disaster that is Chiang´s China, and now how have negotiations with the russians, the turks, the japanese, etc.. and be really ironic and original, if that military and dictatorial goverment at the end be nice and good for China and the world, thanks and good luck.