A Shift in Priorities

[Dr. Luny]

Damn, you sure do know how to provoke suspense!

I'm increasingly impressed with the quality of this timeline, keep up the good work!

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Expat

This is a good point, but my guess is that the Union Latin as dominated by Maurras pushed the other countries further to the right than IOTL anyway.

We still shouldn't underestimate the impact of a moderate head-of-government being replaced by a more ruthless one, but in terms of message, Portugal and Spain would've already been reading off of the cue cards provided by the Action Francaise.

Considering the circumstances of his rise to power, the probable close cooperation of the Mittelafrikan and Portuguese military, and Germany generally forcing every colonial power's hands on Africa, it'll be interesting to see how Salazar handles the "civilizing mission" in Mozambique and Angola.

Another thing to think about is that the reign of the First Republic was significantly shorter than IOTL and was essentially strong-armed out before the waters could get too muddy. Republicanism might be repressed in Portugal, but I don't think the idea of Republicanism had time to be discredited as an idea- nor did the Republican government have time to completely discredit themselves.

My point is that Portugal (and Spain) both have un-purged leftists in their midst, and the lid has been on the pressure cooker longer than IOTL. They may not need outside help to throw off their repressive governments, once the economy turns south.

Incidentally, does Portugal have a king? It would be strange if the monarchists in France and Spain who backed the initial coup didn't re-install Manuel.

In rast's Tl, Portugal is still a republic.
The first Republic although lasting less than OTL, was still doomed from the start. Limited electoral franchise, and controlled most of the time by a party (the (Democratic-)Republican Party)), whose policies (and cronical instability) antagonised everyone on the right and left, ensured that many won't long for the return of the First Republic.

While the elements of the "left" of the time (what we now call centre and centre-left) may still try a coup (like they tried several times OTL), and may succeed (they used to have some influence in the urban middle-class and among the officer class), thay can't succeed on a permanent and lasting basis without the agreement of the conservative republican right, which would require a different regime than the one that existed before (universal franchise and other measures to ensure no-one riggs elections).

The reinstatement of a monarchy in Portugal in the 1930's wouldn't be easy, they were only a large minority by then, the centre and the left would oppose, and even the old conservative republican right would be little enthusiastic, especially if the Monarchy would be too authoritharian.
Manuel himself was more centrist than most kings of the time - we could say he was a parliamentary king in spirit, who tried to reign in an unsustainable Constitutional Monarchy, but he had no children OTL (it could be different TTL). His potential sucessor Duarte Nuno wouldn't mind a democracy, but many of the remaining monarchists of the time were fond of very authoritharian models, which would scare the republicans (from all sides).

[rast]

Admiral. That part of a warship which does the talking while the figurehead does the thinking.
(Ambrose Bierce)

General von Bauer had talked the DELAG into detaching fifteen Zeppelins to Westafrika. Thus, travelling was enormously facilitated in this country without modern infrastructure.

The transit from Lomé to Monrovia had only taken three hours including boarding and disembarking. Fajga Mandlstajn had enjoyed the passage over the African jungle. Helene Deutsch had hired Mandlstajn as bodyguard and tried to disguise her as one of her students. But Arthur Nebe knew a beast of prey when he saw it, and soon Nebe and Mandlstajn had been talking shop about weapons, hand-to-hand combat and interrogation techniques, while Deutsch and Rita Kranich, the other student accompanying, discussed psychoanalytical affairs.
Nebe had been pleasantly surprised to meet a Jewish woman devoted to practical police work and not off-hook with airy theories about superego and the unconscious. He knew now that Mandlstajn was working for Frajln Wach; her former association with Ephraim Sklyansky and Leon Trotsky, however, the young woman had kept diligently secret. Nebe’s two assistants, Müller and Krantz, had slept all through the journey; they knew that Nebe would keep them busy once the Zeppelin had landed.
In Monrovia they were now. But where to start investigating?

Yeah! His cruisers were faster than the old Kraut Nigger vessels! – Although the enemy ships were fleeing on top speed, USS Omaha, USS Pensacola and USS Houston were catching up on them. Rear Admiral Bagley was champing at the bit for the kill. There was no trace of any submarines; the Asdic device and the underwater sound detection section both reported ‘no signal’.
A look on the map showed that there still was no danger from enemy airplanes, one was still out of range of land based flyers.
Theoretically, the Kraut Niggers were already in gun range. But the distance was still too large. Better to wait for another fifteen minutes.

When the mayday message from CC-3 USS Saratoga was received, Bagley suddenly realised that the trap had not been set for his squadron.
CC-5 USS Constitution had been hit by two torpedoes and had lost her propulsion; two escort destroyers had been sunk. USS Saratoga was trying to tow Constitution back to the Azores. Bagley’s squadron was called back to provide protection.
“Blast it!” exclaimed Bagley and ordered opening fire on the two Kraut Nigger cruisers.
But – as had been predictable – the shells landed far away from the enemy vessels, who now fired back, also missing by wide margins.

Thoroughly disappointed, Bagley ordered his squadron to turn around. Obviously, the masters of these Kraut Niggers had conceived a clever plan and their puppets had executed it obediently. One must not underestimate these creatures; they seemed to be quite teachable.

On the bridge of SMS Bangui (ex-SMS Emden II), Kapitän zur See Oskar Butembo smiled his broad smile. These Americans were aggressive, but not very experienced. He himself had learned tactics from German instructors, who had fought in the Great War. – And they had made him sweat in panic very often during the exercises. But he had learned to apply the basics blindly; and had taught his subordinates the tricks without mercy, just like the Germans had treated him. – The Yankees had better employed British trainers to teach them all the tricks. Well, he was going to teach them the tricks as well, but they would suffer in due course…
He ordered his two cruisers to turn to the open ocean. Now, the way was clear for antagonizing the next auxiliary.

[Kitiem3000]

Germany 1 - USA 0
Fighting banana republics has spoiled them.

[Jotun]

Originally Posted by rast

Yeah! His cruisers were faster than the old Kraut Nigger vessels! – Although the enemy ships were fleeing on top speed, USS Omaha, USS Pensacola and USS Houston were catching up on them. Rear Admiral Bagley was champing at the bit for the kill. There was no trace of any submarines; the Asdic device and the underwater sound detection section both reported ‘no signal’.

Of course ASDIC and passive sound detection show no underwater contacts. Even if there were any...to paraphrase Adm Gallery from "The Hunt for Red October": "At this speed they could go right over my daughter's stereo and not hear a thing"

Submarine detection at 30+ knots...*shakes head* Another sign of over-aggressiveness on the Americans' part?

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Kitiem3000

Germany 1 - USA 0
Fighting banana republics has spoiled them.

It's pretty much as I expected the war for the next time. The Germans inflict small, but steady casualties on the US, which do not achieve much in the meantime. It's noteworthy, though, that so far only Mittelafrika did the fighting. It's about time that the motherland gets involved...

Oh, by the way, nice to see Fajga Mandlstajn back!

[rast]

Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber.
(Plato)

The ‘Neutral Bloc’ in North-Western Europe consisted of Great Britain, Denmark, Norway and Ireland. Denmark, although Iceland had been occupied by the USA, had – officially – accepted the US affirmation that ‘protective occupation’ did not mean annexation and that the civil rights of the Icelanders would be respected.
Both, Denmark and Norway, would, however, follow Great Britain if she turned against the US; but they would not follow her if she turned against Germany, the latter was simply too close to confront her safely.
In Ireland, the situation was similar. Although the Irish had no reason to be considerate opposite Britain, the economic importance and closeness of the former master forced the cabinet of Prime Minister Éamon de Valera to tread very carefully. Despite sirens’ songs emanating from US diplomats and business delegations, Ireland would remain neutral as long as Britain was neutral. Should Britain turn against Germany, one would jump on the boat and try to exploit the US offers. Should Britain decide against the US, Ireland would remain neutral.
Sweden and the Netherlands, both neutral de jure, were considered de facto as part of the German camp.

Britain thus was in a central role. The socialist government of Ramsay MacDonald tried to steer a course of strict neutrality, although individual members had close connections to German socialists. So far, both conflict parties had respected British rights – and avouched that British neutrality would be respected.
But even many conservatives did not favour the idea of becoming the junior partner of the US. After all, the old balance of power was gone, as was the British Empire of Queen Victoria’s days. A fully democratic Germany was firmly established as hegemon of Europe – and even the mighty USA would not be able to change this. And while Germany lacked the means to strike out against the continental United States, she certainly had the power to do very unpleasant things to any European enemy. On the other hand: As hegemon Germany had shown considerable restraint opposite those states not belonging to the Central Powers Market Zone; at present, the USA appeared much more aggressive and pretentious than Germany.
The Churchill clique had differing ideas, but kept them hidden from the public – although strongly rummaging backstage.
The leadership of the Royal Navy, where Admiral of the Fleet Sir Charles Madden had replaced Sir David Beatty as First Sea Lord, also harboured differing ideas. Siding with the USA might provide the senior service with an opportunity to gloss over the disappointing Battle of Jutland and achieve a new Trafalgar against the Hochseeflotte.

Winston Spencer Churchill did have much too close ties to the Royal Navy not to know about these sentiments. Well experienced with naval incidents since his tenure as First Lord of the Admiralty from October 1911 until May 1915, Churchill regarded another ‘naval incident’ as a good possibility to drag Britain into the American camp.
The problem was that Germany – until now – had shown no military aggressiveness opposite the US. Neither had the numerous oceangoing submarines been unleashed, nor had an amphibious task force been sent to ‘liberate’ Iceland – or at least ‘secure’ the Faroe Islands. Only the Middle Africans were applying pinprick after pinprick, driving the Americans mad and even madder – because even small drubbings received from people considered racially inferior were extremely infuriating for them.
The end of trans-Atlantic Zeppelin service had sparked a revival of the ocean liners. If one of those – full of poor English gents, ladies and kids – would fall victim to Hun malevolence, British public opinion might swing towards war with Germany. What had worked one way with the Lusitania could also work the other way round…

The imagination fired by a liberal dose of brandy, Churchill was already painting in his mind the picture of a new Great War, in which the invincible power of the Anglophone countries was prevailing, when Anthony Eden and Alfred Duff Cooper arrived with interesting news.
Since weeks, British economy was on the verge of collapse, and the banking system was failing more and more. Unemployment – unknown in Britain since five years – was back, and the number of jobless people was steadily on the rise.
The MacDonald cabinet was meeting in permanence. Now, Cooper and Eden had heard that the radical socialist faction, represented by J. R. Clynes, Oswald Mosley and Sylvia Pankhurst, was pushing for socialisation.

Ah, finally these fine ladies and gentlemen were dropping the cloak of benevolent socialism – and revealing their true kernel of fierce communism. Well, socialisation was totally un-English; this would push many people of the middle class and the lower middle class back into the conservative camp.
Also, the financial providers of the Churchill Group, men like Robert Waley Cohen and James de Rothschild, would be horrified by the prospect of Britain becoming owned by the people.
This was a glorious chance to tip the scales!

[Beer]

Hi!
Somehow, I think Churchill is a bit too sneaky for his own good. He might bring England into the war on the US side, but I seriously doubt that Hipper and the SKL are not planning for a british war entry as an enemy.
In fact, in all three OHL, LKL, SKL and the OKW are still many WW1 veterans. They know that esp. the Royal Navy is still itching for a secong "Go". You can say much good and bad about Hipper, but he has too keen a mind to not anticipate a stab in the back by "perfidious Albion". I think that Hipper keeping his forces back, is an indicator that he is suspicious about England, far more than his political masters. And the same would apply to the General Staff.

[altamiro]

Originally Posted by Beer

Hi!
Somehow, I think Churchill is a bit too sneaky for his own good. He might bring England into the war on the US, but I seriously doubt that Hipper and the SKL are not planning for a british war entry as an enemy.
In fact, in all three OHL, LKL, SKL and the OKW are still many WW1 veterans. They know that esp. the Royal Navy is still itching for a secong "Go". You can say much good and bad about Hipper, but he has too keen an mind to not anticipate a stab in the back by "perfidious Albion". I think that Hipper keeping his forces back, is an indicator that he is suspicious about England, far more than his political masters. And the same would apply to the General Staff.

I don't think Churchill would be able to get the power with any legal means. No election within the next months (of course you still obstruct the parliament so much that a new election is called), no position of power from which to order somebody to do something stupid... so it's either working from the sidelines or a coup for Churchill.

It would be actually very nice, should Churchill be able to engineer a sub sinking a British liner, if there is a German sub nearby (shadowing the Brits on Hipper's order) to record the incident. Ooops...

Btw, how reliable are the British torpedoes in TTL? Torpedo reliability was a big issue in quite a few navies around this time IOTL...

Edit: how much is German government aware of Churchill's machinations? The German intelligence is supposed to be quite inept, but what about other CPMZ countries? Or Mittelafrika?

[Kitiem3000]

Killing and mutilating some foreign soldiers to trick some other countries into a war is one (extremely bad) thing. Sinking a ship full of your own countrymen to provoke your own nation into a war is beyond treason.

Who would he get to do it anyway? Germany knows whats at stake and will never fire on British ships. I can't imagine some British submarine captain would eagerly fire on British ships, even if he is looking for a rematch with Germany. The flexible 'patriotism' of politicians is not often found in the military.

Also the chance of people talking. The original secret only had a few people holding it. A submarine crew is a bit larger. I think on the whole this brandy fuelled monstrosity will never happen.

[Kelenas]

I'm extremely curious how this False Flag Operation of Churchill's is supposed to work. Staging such an incident at sea is significantly harder than simply dropping a few guns, dog-tags, and corpses in uniforms in a massacred village.

Either the plan will be absolutely brilliant, or it will be utterly harebrained. Personally, I hope that the mentioning of the "liberal dose of brandy" points to the latter; however good Churchill might have been as an orator and upholder of morale, as a planner, from all I've heard about e.g. Gallipoli, he was rather inept, and I seriously doubt that would change ITTL.

- Kelenas

[altamiro]

Originally Posted by Kelenas

I'm extremely curious how this False Flag Operation of Churchill's is supposed to work. Staging such an incident at sea is significantly harder than simply dropping a few guns, dog-tags, and corpses in uniforms in a massacred village.

My guess is he would attempt somehow provoke a German warship to fire on a British ship, possibly mistaking it for something else. Alternatively, if the British liner refuses to allow boarding (for control), and does not react to a shot over the bow or whatever they use as a warning, what are the German captain's options? Anything except just letting it go will result in at least hardships for passengers which can be turned into outrage by Daily Mail - or whichever newspaper is responsible for whipping up anti-German sentiment.

Alternatively, replay USS Maine as needed.

[Jotun]

As long as the UK parts of such operations keep their mouths shut, success is pretty much a given since German intel was decreed to be cataclysmically inept with no chance at improvement
(No offense intended, rast, this remains about the only thing in your awesome TL I find absolutely implausible and indigestible)

Seriously, though, sooner or later, there HAS to be a whistleblower on ole Winnie and his camarilla of Empire-wankers...the more people know about his nefarious plans, the more likely some slip of the tongue. As was mentioned before, it would be particularly delicious if said whistleblower was one of the invisible/untouchables (in the eyes of British high snobiety) like a chambermaid, a manservant or a maitre d'...

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Jotun

As long as the UK parts of such operations keep their mouths shut, success is pretty much a given since German intel was decreed to be cataclysmically inept with no chance at improvement
(No offense intended, rast, this remains about the only thing in your awesome TL I find absolutely implausible and indigestible)

Seriously, though, sooner or later, there HAS to be a whistleblower on ole Winnie and his camarilla of Empire-wankers...the more people know about his nefarious plans, the more likely some slip of the tongue. As was mentioned before, it would be particularly delicious if said whistleblower was one of the invisible/untouchables (in the eyes of British high snobiety) like a chambermaid, a manservant or a maitre d'...

Well, until now Churchill's plans have worked excellent.
But IMO, they should send that chap ( mercenary commander ) to sleep with fishes, and that prostitute too, just the next day after operation.

No men, no problems, and no big mouths.

[Kelenas]

Problem is that a lot of your suggestions would require that Germany tries to keep up some kind of blockade - which they don't. They have no reason to board or inspect ships of any nation, whatsoever, given that the US external trade wasn't that large to begin with, and with the *GD is likely approaching zero.
We haven't even heard anything about German U-Boats harassing US supply lines, which would offer at least some chance that Churchill might provoke some incident.

Frankly, at this moment, the US is far more likely to sink British (or some other nations') ships at random than Germany/Middle Africa. Especially with the way the Middle African Navy keeps provoking them with pinpricks and whatnots. I wouldn't be surprised if at least some parts of the USN adopt an approach where they simply sink merchant ships on sight. After all, most of Europe's already against them, so its not like their reputation could get even worse, right?

- Kelenas

[rast]

Originally Posted by Kelenas

Problem is that a lot of your suggestions would require that Germany tries to keep up some kind of blockade - which they don't.

The task is not to send a British submarine sinking a British liner and pretending it were the Huns who did it. This would never ever work.
The task is to create a situation where the belligerents will inevitably crash and where British public opinion will matter.
A US liner - carrying military supply and passengers - is much more attractive, once Germany should engage in submarine warfare.

Ships 'vanishing' are - at present - rather limited to the African Theatre of Operations, and down there the list of interesting targets is rather small.

[Kitiem3000]

German nor American ships will be quick to provoke Britain. They can't risk the Royal fleet against them. Not unless for an extraordinarily good reason.

I must say I consider any ship carrying military supply a valid target. Putting passengers on such a ship is nothing more than an attempt to hold it hostage. Although I can see how it would seem bad, is it enough for Britain to go to war over? It isn't even their ship. Maybe if they are searching for an excuse, but to me it reads like they are looking for any excuse to stay out of it.

[Expat]

Honestly how appealing is Churchill at this point in the public eye? The man was never exactly the picture of health, and here he's probably treated his innards to a few more barrel's worth of hard liquor than OTL. Is his public persona at all affected? How's his speaking and poise?

Obviously even that much alcohol alone probably wouldn't do in the body that withstood the ups and downs of WWII, but the people have to want to put him in power in the first place. If the drink's had any affect on his public face then people might opt for one of his cohorts, even if his schemes go off as he plans.

[Parma]

Originally Posted by Expat

Honestly how appealing is Churchill at this point in the public eye? The man was never exactly the picture of health, and here he's probably treated his innards to a few more barrel's worth of hard liquor than OTL. Is his public persona at all affected? How's his speaking and poise?

Obviously even that much alcohol alone probably wouldn't do in the body that withstood the ups and downs of WWII, but the people have to want to put him in power in the first place. If the drink's had any affect on his public face then people might opt for one of his cohorts, even if his schemes go off as he plans.

I agree with Expat, we all remember Churchill in his role during WW2 OTL, while he was before and during the Great war a politician, at that time, which you hate or loved, but during the interbellum he slided somewhat to the back bench.
So you can question his influence.

Still an other thing, I still can not believe there no rumors and buzz of the thugs, who wore German uniforms but spoke all languages except German, who were rampaging at a West African coast mutilating American Marines and villagers. There must be some eye witness who survived a massacre, or one or more thugs who brawled about his or their achievements in some bar or an other establishment, also visited by sailors, who brought this kind of stories back to Europe or even the UK it self. Triggering some woke up espionage agent or clerk.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Bmao

I could also imagine MittleAfrika becoming some sort of evil rogue state in the minds of the racist USA.

Perhaps the situation in Liberia could become so intolerable for AFricans that the Mittleafrikans can't stand it any more and invade, but that the US uses it as a pretext for armed intervention. That's probably a long shot, as America is still rather content in its sphere of influence, but if it did happen it would be one hell of a nasty war between an ultra-racist US vs Mittleafrika. Yet crazier things have happened.

Hey, I called the US-Mittleafrika war about a month before rast started writing about it, so don't dismiss my US-China alliance possibility.

As for Parma's last point, I suppose the reason why the Germans have been unable to uncover Churchill's scheme at the moment is because of their previously mentioned bad intelligence apparatus. Perhaps they might want the help of superspy Muharip and the Ottoman secret service. Yet for Chruchill, the Great Depression is currently his best friend. The longer the current government remains in power, and is ineffective in curbing the Depression, then the people will become sick of the party and it will reach a point where they might even accept having Churchill back. After all, crazier things have happened in OTL, like a certain mustached Austrian taking over Germany right? (By the way, how is Hitler's restaurant doing? Has his chain spread throughout Europe by now?)

For the storyline, I admit that its great to see the Mittleafrikans handing it to the racist US at the moment, even though I'm a US American myself, but lets not let our bandwagoning of Mittleafrika affect the realism of the timeline, or as I've said earlier, overestimate their capabilities. Unless the Germans begin to greatly intensify their naval activity, and get the other European allies to do the same, after a while the US is going to gain the upper hand. As for the current American bungling of the war effort, I can't see how the Americans would stay stupid forever. The Americans can afford to take losses and suffer a few calamities, but without a truly decisive defeat the Americans can regroup and learn from their mistakes and eventually their superior production capacity (even with the Depression going on) is going to tell.