A Shift in Priorities

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by zeppelin247

I hope the Ambassador can find out all about this scheme, be very interesting to see Germany And Americas reaction

Given rasts previous posts about the German ambassador in the US, I doubt that evidence of the plot is sufficient for the US.

Furthermore, I sure hope that the Mittelafrikans get their time to sink some more ships and to conquer Liberia.

If the true story gets out, the main effect should be in Europe, I think. There might be many Europeans who believed in those stories about the barbarous huns - and suddenly it comes out that its all about some British scheming. Played correctly by German propaganda and diplomacy, this might result in a strong anti-british feeling throughout the continent. And in Britain itself, the socialists might get a unique opportunity to purge all administration levels from conservatives and to discredit the conservative party/the anti-Germans for quite some time. It would fit very well the general timeline if Germany, without doing that much itself, comes out as the de-facto winner of all these (anti-German british establishment discredited, France and Britain alienated, a whole new African "protectorate").

[Kelenas]

Well, Kiekebusch should need some time to properly investigate McKinley; that should give the Mittelafrikans the opportunity to take Liberia, and possibly kick some US Marine ass while they're at it.

On a side note, I found the scene with the drunken McKinley hilarious.

- Kelenas

[rast]

When elephants fight the grass gets hurt.
(African proverb)

The German Middle African advance into Liberia started on February 16th, 1930. – The indigene population greeted the Middle Africans as liberators and saviours from oppression. The mercenary units knew from experience that they could not hope to stop the well trained Middle Africans. Conducting hit and run delay actions, they fell back in direction of Monrovia and the western part of the country.

The II. Battalion of the 6th Marine Regiment at Harper was quite another case: The Marines had dug in on the peninsula with the lagoon on the left and the ocean on the right side. Relying on USS Concord and the three destroyers for artillery support, Lieutenant Colonel Heflin was determined to stick it out. His Marines would avenge Baker Company and inflict as heavy losses on the Kraut Niggers as possible.
As Harper was situated only 10 miles west of the border to Côte d’Ivoire, the Middle Africans arrived there already in the early morning of February 16th. But although movements were reported frequently, no attack on the Marines’ positions occurred. Patrols sent out soon ran into strong Middle African forces, but the enemy obviously had no intention to rush into the Marines’ killing zones.

In far away Uyghurstan and Tannu-Tuva, the Turks and their allies learned that the Middle African volunteers were quitting and preparing to return home in a hurry.
“There’s a war going on in Africa. Do you think we’ll stay put in this godforsaken desert while our comrades battle the Americans in the jungle?”

In Washington, Ambassador von Prittwitz faced Secretary of State Cordell Hull, who presented him an ultimatum: Germany was to respect Liberian sovereignty and to withdraw her troops from Liberian soil immediately, otherwise diplomatic relations would be severed.
“And, Mister Ambassador, should our forces in Liberia, which are there because the government of that country has invited them in, or our naval units in the vicinity of Liberia be attacked by German forces once again, the United States of America will consider themselves to be at war with Germany.”

In Monrovia, the German embassy was quickly isolated by Liberian soldiers and policemen. At noon, the building was stormed and the German diplomats taken into custody. During the afternoon, their families were seized as well, their houses looted, their indigene servants beaten and their maids raped.

With USS Gnat provisionally plugged up, Task Force Charlie set sail. Vice Admiral Brumby had received orders to remain in Liberian waters and wait for reinforcements, which were due to arrive in about ten days. He was not to attack German naval units off Côte d’Ivoire, but was free to offer battle if the Germans attacked his task force in or off Liberia. Brumby decided to steam south again. His battle wagons and the remaining airplanes of the carrier could provide vital support for Heflin’s Marines.

In Lomé, General Max von Bauer had realised in the meanwhile how poor German and Middle African intelligence on the other African countries and colonies was. Apart from the diplomats’ activities, the Außendienst hardly entertained spy rings – there were not even available qualified dossiers about the indigene forces of Liberia or the administrative structures of this country.
Civilians! Tardy and shallow. – And the Abwehr was concentrating on the European countries – and to a lesser extend on Asia, but hardly on Africa. Only in the Union of South Africa, Egypt and in Morocco, all countries friendly to Germany, did they maintain small offices.
This had to change! – He issued orders to his staff to set up a black information and intelligence network. Unfortunately, this would not affect the current operation in Liberia. One had to carry on without knowing much about the enemy.

In San Pédro, Generalleutnant Teraufi’s staff had received a radio message from MAU 22. The US task force was moving south again. The carrier seemed to have been repaired again and was operating scout aircraft. However, the Americans were moving slowly, with 15 knots only.
The refugee camps at Tabou had been evacuated already. So, civilian casualties could possibly be avoided this time. Reports from Harper said that the US Marines had dug in there. So, this was most probably the destination of the task force.
Teraufi trusted the submarines to keep track of the Americans and to intervene if they should attack Middle African forces. In addition, the torpedo squadrons and the fighters were tasked to reconnoitre the area – but to avoid – for the time being – combat with the cruiser and the destroyers off Harper.

[Monty Burns]

Great post, as always - but I have to add that the tension buildup becomes almost unbearable...

Good to see that Bauer reacts and builds a proper intelligence. I doubt that he restricts himself to Afrika. Particularly the black minorities in the Americas might provide him with good opportunities.

I'm unsure about the line of thinking in the US, though. Maybe someone can explain me the subtleties of diplomacy and gradual aggression? The US already seized German ships and attacked German troops - yet they do not consider themselves at war with Germany? Do they expect that Germany just goes along without those ships or what?

[altamiro]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

I'm unsure about the line of thinking in the US, though. Maybe someone can explain me the subtleties of diplomacy and gradual aggression? The US already seized German ships and attacked German troops - yet they do not consider themselves at war with Germany? Do they expect that Germany just goes along without those ships or what?

The attack on German (actually Mittelafrikan) troops can be diplomatically explained away as a misunderstanding a la USS Liberty, and seizing the ships is still a reversible act - they hold the ships "hostage" in order to force concessions from Germany, or so McAdoo might think. This may or may not backfire on him, likely it will.

[Kelenas]

In Monrovia, the German embassy was quickly isolated by Liberian soldiers and policemen. At noon, the building was stormed and the German diplomats taken into custody. During the afternoon, their families were seized as well, their houses looted, their indigene servants beaten and their maids raped.

Damn. Unless Kiekebusch managed to escape somehow, it looks like his investigation into McKinley will have to wait. Though I wonder how this actions will reflect on the US worldwide. They already disregarded diplomatic immunity during the incident in Mexico, and now their Liberian subjects/vassals behave even worse.

- Kelenas

[altamiro]

Originally Posted by Kelenas

They already disregarded diplomatic immunity during the incident in Mexico, and now their Liberian subjects/vassals behave even worse.

But the Liberian behaviour is deniable for the USA and does not even need to be initiated from Washington. After all Liberia IS at war with Germany resp. Mittelafrika. They can do knee-jerk reaction pretty well by themselves. If Germany plays it right it can still be used for PR, of course.

Edit: it also fits with the racism prevalent in the USA. "Those uncivilized blacks, what can you do"...

[rast]

Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world.
(Arthur Schopenhauer)

In the late evening of February 16th, 1930, the German cabinet was meeting in the Imperial Chancellery in Berlin. Following the receipt of the US ultimatum, foreign minister Adenauer had invited US Ambassador Schurman to explain exactly the US position. Now, he was about to brief his colleagues on the interview.

“There exists no formal treaty of alliance between the US and Liberia. Thus, the US are not obliged to support the country in any case. However, there’s a strong tradition to back Liberia against the European powers’ encroachment. And – recently – substantial investments have been made by US companies. In addition, the ruling class in Liberia consists of the descendents of former US slaves.”

“But the Americans are not very fond of their black citizens. Why should they care about some tens of thousands children and grand children of former Negro slaves who now enslave the native population of that country?” interrupted Rosa Luxemburg.

“Well, this is what Ambassador Schurman told me: They do care. – And if only to preserve some American influence in Black Africa. We’ll have to accept that the McAdoo administration will continue to protect Liberia. There has been some immigration of black US citizens to Liberia over the past few years. Possible that they want to keep Liberia as a convenience for getting rid of more US Negroes.

The US still blame us for massacring their Marines and consider the attacks delivered by their naval units a legitimate retaliation. But because we have officially denied any involvement in said massacre, they have yet refrained from escalating to war.
The seized ships and crews could be released instantly if we agree not to occupy Liberia and subsequently recall our forces – and a solution in the dispute about the Marines massacre is found.”

“So, if we behave nicely and do what the Americans want, they’ll keep peace. – And before we can even count to ten, a huge US expedition force lands in Liberia – and – quite by necessity – then is forced to expand into former French Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea. – Just look at the pattern that was at work in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.” scoffed Rosa Luxemburg. “No, let’s show the US capitalists that Africa is not theirs to exploit but ours to emancipate. This war will be very short, once Liberia is secured, they’ll have no place to land – and that will be it. – Our socialist friends in England will not provide a base for US power projection, nor will France be that stupid. – So, the Americans stay on their side of the Atlantic and mistreat their Negroes and Latinos; and we remain on our side and uplift our Negroes to civilisation.”

“Are you the same woman that founded the Spartacus Group in August 1914 in response to the good old SPD’s endorsement of the war credits?” asked chancellor Scheidemann.

“Now come on, Philipp. We all learn and grow wiser with time. And my sojourn in Mexico has taught me some bitter lessons about the American capitalists and their ways. As long as they remain in their realm, they may do whatever they want. But we must not let them penetrate into our realm.”

“What will be the economic effect of a war with the United States?” Scheidemann asked Erzberger.

“Not a good one.” replied Erzberger. “The US are a highly developed country. Thus, although the overall volume is small – the values involved are substantial. We mainly sell sophisticated machinery and advanced chemical products to the US. – Even worse, they can block us from trading with South America. – I guess, some trade will still be possible through Italian, Dutch, Belgian and Swedish proxies. – And the good thing is, we’re not dependent on anything coming from the US exclusively. – Except the DELAG, of course, but they have bunkered a sufficient stock of liquid Helium to keep their Zeppelins in operation for at least five more years.
Overall, we can lose about ten percent of our export volume, which is quite a blow for the economy; and our high technology branches will suffer most.”

“Mittelafrika will compensate within short time all losses our industries incur from trade missed with the US.” growled Luxemburg. “I say: No appeasement of the US capitalists.”

After minister of defence Heuß had basically underlined Luxemburg’s appraisal about the unsustainability of US operations against Germany and Mittelafrika without bases in Africa and Europe, the cabinet agreed to rebuff the US ultimatum.

[altamiro]

Rosa Luxemburg is becoming quite a hawk, isn't she?

Anyway, awesome updates, two in one day!!!

[Expat]

A shame about the troops in Central Asia, especially since they probably won't arrive in time. Hopefully the Turks have enough momentum going to start training their own.

Have the Liberians/mercenaries been causing any trouble in British Sierra Leone? If even one plantation was raided that might be a queue for some smart British socialist to find common cause with the Germans. It would certainly justify them not rushing to America's defense, no matter what Churchill says.

I assume the Liberians/mercenaries have headed north into former French territory (Upper Volta I think it was called then.) Any conflict with the raider proto-state that was forming somewhere in the central/north? That might make an interesting ally for the Mittelafrikans.

[Kelenas]

Originally Posted by altamiro

But the Liberian behaviour is deniable for the USA and does not even need to be initiated from Washington. After all Liberia IS at war with Germany resp. Mittelafrika. They can do knee-jerk reaction pretty well by themselves. If Germany plays it right it can still be used for PR, of course.

Edit: it also fits with the racism prevalent in the USA. "Those uncivilized blacks, what can you do"...

Officially, the US can easily deny the Liberian's actions, yes. Unofficially, I think a lot of people consider the Liberians as "the Americans' Negroes" much like they consider the Middleafricans as "the Germans' Negroes". Just like many people hold the massacre of Baker Company by the (fake) Middleafricans against Germany, there'll be no lack of people who hold the attacks on Diplomats and their families and servants by the Liberians against the Americans.

- Kelenas

[abc123]

Originally Posted by altamiro

Rosa Luxemburg is becoming quite a hawk, isn't she?

Even a warmonger!

[SavoyTruffle]

Well, in the name of anti-racism, apparently...

[abc123]

Originally Posted by SavoyTruffle

Well, in the name of anti-racism, apparently...

I think that's more because her own ( deserved ) bad experiences with Americans. And now she uses evrey chance to revenge to Americans.

[stjernkjempe]

I would think that USA won't be that denied by the loss of Liberia as people would think. They could press Brazil for bases and then outright buy Cap Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe or any other Portuguese enclave in Africa. Poor Portugal would be tempted by the American money and being somewhat defended by Spain and France in the Latin union not that afraid of Germany.

[stjernkjempe]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

If I remember correctly, rast set the population of Germany at around 90 millions and the population of the US at around 100 millions. Both are more industrialized than IOTL. German industries, though, control also many assets in other CPMZ countries and can easily use supplies from those countries which do not join the war actively. So the US industrial capacity shouldn't be that much higher than Germany's.

Then we add in Mittelafrika, which we learned are able - or soon be able - to mass produce automobiles and which have the means to build, repair and equip major ships. Germany and Mittelafrika should therefore be able to outproduce the US - but not decisively.

Maybe rast could post some summary statistics with population and GDP per capita for the US, Germany and Mittelafrika?

There is more industrialization ITTL but Rast have stated before that its only in USA there is a full scale motorization ongoing. The main transporter of goods in Europe is still Railroad. So there is not the same scale of large scale automobile production in Europe as in US.

I find it hard to believe that German middle Africa is as industrialized as US or Germany or even Italy ITTL, I would buy that it's at the same level as Greece or Portugal ITTL but that is still industrial after US and Germany (or even France or Hungary) even if their population is greater.

We should neither underestimate the factor of differences in industrial culture between USA and Germany in the scale of production. USA have a longer tradition of large scale mass production after the standardization (the famous Ford example is in every text book you can find, but it were all over US industry) while Weimar Germany (actually all of interwar Europe) didn't have any large scale standardizations and actually many times the industry resisted such reforms from the government. Its first after 1933 when the industry began to gear up for war that many American standardization reforms were adapted in different European countries. If you want a (in)famous example of this resistance of standardization you should look towards British ship industry and French automobile industry 1920-35 and compare it whit USA production (of course average out per worker and work hour). I don't think this differences from OTL is completely butterflied away ITTL.

I think also the access to cheap natural resources, labor and land to develop is a important differences. US have a large continent to draw resources from, cheap land and occupied countries to force cheap labor out from. Germany have to share the continents resources whit all the members in the CPMZ even if they can BUY advanced industrial goods from them, even if the Ottomans already is spending a lot of money already doing exactly this. They have a labor deficit in their industry already and the friends in the CPMZ should also have low unemployment as a result of this. So getting more labor for more production is going to be more expensive. They could draw natural resources and labor cheap from German middle Africa but this would detract from their effort to industrialize the area.

What I mean is that Germany alone is under a number of constraints to out produce USA that USA don't have in the same sense But if there is an all out war and a all out war production I think they both would be evenly matched for a short while until on off their economies collapses.

[stjernkjempe]

Originally Posted by rast

“What will be the economic effect of a war with the United States?” Scheidemann asked Erzberger.

“Not a good one.” replied Erzberger. “The US are a highly developed country. Thus, although the overall volume is small – the values involved are substantial. We mainly sell sophisticated machinery and advanced chemical products to the US. – Even worse, they can block us from trading with South America. – I guess, some trade will still be possible through Italian, Dutch, Belgian and Swedish proxies. – And the good thing is, we’re not dependent on anything coming from the US exclusively. – Except the DELAG, of course, but they have bunkered a sufficient stock of liquid Helium to keep their Zeppelins in operation for at least five more years.
Overall, we can lose about ten percent of our export volume, which is quite a blow for the economy; and our high technology branches will suffer most.”

Actually this analysis is something investors in America would like. While USA might lose export to Germany their industry get less competition from German high tech industry. Stock prices on chemical and industrial companies should increase steadily and if there is a war and war investments is made in these industries they should soar to the sky. The happy days in the American stock exchange is going to continue for a couple of more days.

Blocking German market access to South America should also help to improve the situation for the American industry. Less import, more export (taking over the German export to South America). I foresee a strong war lobby among American industrialists.

[rast]

Originally Posted by stjernkjempe

I foresee a strong war lobby among American industrialists.

Concur; your analysis hits the point. - Only the German labour market situation is substantially better. Because of increased mechanisation and motorisation (quite different from OTL), the German agricultural sector has yielded about 6 million labourers to the industries. Thus, Germany was even able to reduce the number of foreign workers. - Should, however, arise the need to augment the working force, there is a sufficient number of hands available from Italy, Poland, Czechia, Hungary, the Ukraine and the Baltic Countries. - And one should not underestimate the influence exerted by the German owners on French industrial production facilities.

[Expat]

Unrelated question: what's happened to the various groups that resulted in the Spanish Republic IOTL? We know what happened to the French leftists, but I don't believe we've heard word on the Spanish. Not suggesting a revolution's in the cards but surely they must be making some waves?

[Kelenas]

Originally Posted by rast

Concur; your analysis hits the point. - Only the German labour market situation is substantially better. Because of increased mechanisation and motorisation (quite different from OTL), the German agricultural sector has yielded about 6 million labourers to the industries. Thus, Germany was even able to reduce the number of foreign workers. - Should, however, arise the need to augment the working force, there is a sufficient number of hands available from Italy, Poland, Czechia, Hungary, the Ukraine and the Baltic Countries. - And one should not underestimate the influence exerted by the German owners on French industrial production facilities.

Out of curiosity; what's the effect of occupied Mexico on the US economy and military?

- Kelenas