Quick allied victory in WW1

[Derek Jackson]

Is there any way the allies could defeat the Central Powers by the Spring of 1915 or a little earlier?

If so what happens?

I think there would be less enthusiasm for anything as radical as Versailes.

Would the French and British empires feel invigorated?

How long would Czarists survive (I presume until after Lenin's stroke which probably excludes the Bolsheviks.)

[Zyzzyva]

The best bet, IMHO, would be for Moltke to get overconfident just before the end of August and have Von Kluck keep going south rather than southeast - a bit out of character, but necessary. If the Allies can manage to surround and destroy a couple of the right-wing armies (I and II at the very least) then it's possible the fall could see a massive sweeping-back of the German armies through Belgium - although I'm not sure whether that would be enough to force them to make peace on its own. Maybe if you replace Rennenkampf ans Sansonov with, eg, competant commanders who support each other, have Moltke not send Ludendorff out east - we're getting into "everything goes wrong for Germany all at once" territory here, but it's probably necessary - then maybe you could manage a negotiated peace by the spring. A crushing Allied victory a la OTL-1919, though? I don't think it's really possible.

[Anaxagoras]

I don't think Germany could be defeated before 1916 at the earliest. When I wrote Rule Britannia, I searched for a non-ASB way for the war to be decided as quickly as possible in the Allies' favor, and 1916 was the best I could realistically do.

[MrP]

A-H fucks up in Galicia/Poland as OTL, and similarly in Serbia. France has a pre-war plan emphasising the defensive and with the armies deployed further north (see my sig). Russia loses Rennenkampf and Samsonov (as Z says) who are replaced by more competent commanders who both talk to one another and keep their respective armies on a tighter rein (the OTL deployments were just too diffuse for anyone to keep hold of without superior radio tech). Have Prittwitz not recover from his early panic.

In short, the Germans are stymied and stuck in Belgium, and at best a few bits of northern France. Meanwhile, there's a huge Russian army (well, two) pottering about on its way to Berlin, with Prittwitz either in full retreat to the Vistula or with no army at all because a concentrated Russian attack has destroyed it. So there's now a terrified attempt to redeploy German troops east to protect Berlin. The French (and to a greatly lesser extent the Brits and Belgians) now counter-attack the weakened German forces. Whether this attack works or not (and I'd suspect not, despite my usual Corrigan-esque penchant for supporting WWI generals ), it will tie down Germans who could be sent east.

A swift Russian advance outpaces German redeployment and enables the capture of so much of the Fatherland that the Kaiser is forced to sue for peace. The German government gets a thorough shake-up in favour of democracy, and the military probably gets radically cut back in favour of social programmes. I imagine France would get Alsace-Lorraine and the British and French embark on a rebuilding of their armies - more so for the Brits, as the BEF will take heavy casualties even in a war that ends swiftly.

[MrP]

Originally Posted by Anaxagoras

I don't think Germany could be defeated before 1916 at the earliest. When I wrote Rule Britannia, I searched for a non-ASB way for the war to be decided as quickly as possible in the Allies' favor, and 1916 was the best I could realistically do.

Destroy 8th Army, man. I avoided it in PlC because, frankly, it makes it all end too quickly for an interesting AH, and it also makes it look like an Entente-wank.

[Faeelin]

Hrmm. If the French and Russians did smack around Germany, what peace would they impose in 1914?

[Typo]

A/L and...maybe Galacia for Russia?

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by Typo

A/L and...maybe Galacia for Russia?

I guess I'm just curious if there was anything like the September Plan...

[fhaessig]

If someone remembers to evacuate or destroys the Antwerpen nitrates, Germany will have to surrender in Spring 1915 at the latest ( or try to hold the french and Russians attacks with limited expending of ammunition until the Haber process comes fully on line in industrial quantities, which is ASB - earlier processes could not cope with the quantities required - ).

And yes, Alsace + Moselle is a given in case Germany has to seek peace.

[Gonzaga]

Would Italy ever enter the war if there is a faster Entente victory? Also, by the discussion, it seems the war is ended because Germany withdraws from it. How would be the situation in Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire (if the Ottomans still join the Central Powers ITTL)?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Gonzaga

Would Italy ever enter the war if there is a faster Entente victory? Also, by the discussion, it seems the war is ended because Germany withdraws from it. How would be the situation in Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire (if the Ottomans still join the Central Powers ITTL)?

It seems to me that an early Entente victory scenario is likely to see things going South for the CP fairly early, which would probably mean no Ottoman entry, as the Ottomans joined the CP because they thought they would win, not out of any predisposition in favor of Germany. If things go really badly for the CP early, you could even see the Ottomans jump in on the Entente side.

If, however, things don't start going downhill early and the Ottomans join the CP, then they're totally screwed and will be dismembered by the victorious Entente, probably even worse than per historical.

[Tyg]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

If, however, things don't start going downhill early and the Ottomans join the CP, then they're totally screwed and will be dismembered by the victorious Entente, probably even worse than per historical.

Now there's an unpleasant setup. A treaty of Sevres that sticks, a short war with acceptable casualties, and enough gains all around to make it seem worthwhile. Messy peace and even less weak but humiliated Germany, plus chaotic post-war Balkans, and disputes over distribution of the spoils leaves plenty of unresolved fault lines for revanchist or expansionist powers to take advantage of after a few years of peace... Only to then launch an even bigger war of poor mobility and mass casualties.

Abdul, how would the Ottoman Empire be partitioned in that mildly dystopic timeline? It's hard to get too much worse that OTL, isn't it? Unless someone wants to go to the trouble of holding the Anatolian plateau, which would be a nasty, costly mess for all involved.

[Derek Jackson]

Sorry about my error in kind of double posting this theme.

I wonder if with a less bloody World War lots of things would change. I do not see Austria/Hungary surviving to 2000 but it could hang on for some decades, there would be no Bolshevik revolution, though of course I would be surprised if we had a Czarist regime 50 years on.

Would Nationalism be weaker?

How much would women's emancipation be slowed down?

What about Ireland, do we get a nasty Civil war or at least a lot of conflict in Fermangher, Tyrone and other disputlable parts of Ulster.

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

Hrmm. If the French and Russians did smack around Germany, what peace would they impose in 1914?

I guess I'm just curious if there was anything like the September Plan...

You can find the (early) french-russian war aims on the german WWI-wikiapage.

Originally Posted by Typo

A/L and...maybe Galacia for Russia?

It was planned to divide Galicia between Russia and Poland.

[Typo]

I don't think there would be an independent Poland with a quick Allied victory...would there?

[Zajir]

Originally Posted by Grand Prince Paul II.

You can find the (early) french-russian war aims on the german WWI-wikiapage.



It was planned to divide Galicia between Russia and Poland.

Wasn't Poland Russian?

[Zyzzyva]

Originally Posted by Typo

I don't think there would be an independent Poland with a quick Allied victory...would there?

Originally Posted by Zajir

Wasn't Poland Russian?

Yeah, there was nobody in the East who wanted an independant Poland. Fortunately for the Poles, everybody in the East lost - but in a 1914/5 Allied Victory, Russia will be sticking it to them, as usual.

[MrP]

Originally Posted by Zajir

Wasn't Poland Russian?

Yeah. Maybe it was some administrative nonsense.

[Zajir]

Originally Posted by MrP

Yeah. Maybe it was some administrative nonsense.

The Tsar was King of Poland, the Russian could create an autonoumous Poland comprised of Congress Poland, Poznania and the Polish parts of Galicia.

[MrP]

Originally Posted by Zajir

The Tsar was King of Poland, the Russian could create an autonoumous Poland comprised of Congress Poland, Poznania and the Polish parts of Galicia.

Well, he could. It just doesn't seem a likely war aim for Russia at the beginning of the war to defeat Germany and A-H, nab half of Galicia, then voluntarily surrender Poland and some other bits and bobs to form its own self-governing state.