2010 US Presidential Election

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washingtonpost.com, Sunday August 30th

The Mix

Political Blog by Dave Dernazza

Democratic VP Stakes

With all the speculation surrounding vice-president Baker now seems like a good time to re-introduce VP stakes to look at the most likely candidates. I suggest you don't take too much note since in 2006 we had Florida Senator Rafe Framhagen as a sure in to be Arnie Vinick's VP (though in our defense we had Ray Sullivanat #2). Add that to the fact that we thought Leo McGarry wasn't even a contender for the Democratic slot shows how much we know.

Anyway with that in mind:

5. Carol Gelsey. Was the runner up to Baker to replace McGarry in 2006, has a formidable legislative background and would help in Florida next year. On the downside she may be too liberal considering the accusations that Santos has allowed his administration to stray too far to the left.

4. Isaac Sidley. Popular Governor of Massachussetts was widely touted as a possible cabinet pick for Santos four years ago. He has extensive executive experience. He will court controversy, he's not popular with Republicans and at 65 is probably too old for a future Presidential run.

3. Mark Katzenmoyer. Moderate Governor of Wisconsin, has shown an ability to work across partylines. On the negative side he's fairly bland and doesn't have a national profile.

2. Alex Thorn. The golden boy of Democratic politics, delivered a rousing key note speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2002 which shot him to prominence, he would undoubtedly be a strong contender to succeed Santos, he's got film star looks, is highly media savy, has a strong base in the party. He was also one of strongest opponents of Lewis Berryhill's decision to run for the Democratic nomination next year.

1. Tim McCord. The South Carolina Senator ticks all of the boxes Santos needs. He's from a key swing state, fairly moderate so he wouldn't offend conservatives, he's got a high public profile, he's extremely competent, good with the media and has no obvious downsides. At 48 he'd be well positioned as a succesor to Santos whether he wins or loses next year.

Bubbling under: Jack Buckland's decision to support Berryhill has probably cost him a shot at the vice-presidency. Santos loyalist Wendell Tripplehorn may be too important to the Democrats in South Dakota to become VP, Governor of Arkansas Bobby Rimmer would be an interesting left field pick and Mark Renton, the departing Governor of Virginia could offer a strong shot at winning the Old Dominion next year.

[disputed]

foxnews.com, Monday August 31st

Blakemore Advisor: Santos Wrong On Partial Birth

Governor Marcus Blakemore was facing a new storm on abortion last night after one of his closest advisors was caught on video saying that he was disappointed that the President has decided not to veto ban on partial birth abortion that will hit his desk over the next few days.

Ruth Klein, who advises Blakemore on domestic affairs, was talking with some fellow staffers at a fund raiser and was recorded saying “The Governor is really annoyed with the President. This is such a backward step for women’s rights.”

The video appeared on You Tube this morning and was quickly picked up by the networks there after.

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cnn.com, Monday August 31st

Baker Facing Months of Physiotherapy, Return As VP High Unlikely

A leading neurosurgeon who operated on Vice-President Eric Baker has said his term as VP is all but over after the brain hemorrhage he suffered last week.

Don Regis said “The vice-president is over the worst of it for now, but his motor functions have been badly affected. He is facing month of physio to get back to living a normal life again. I think a return to high powered position in public life is not realistic.”

The admission for Regis is the latest in a long line of commentary that suggests Baker is in no condition to continue as Vice-President. Thus far there has been no official comment from either the office of the Vice-President or from the White House.

Speculation continued last night that President Santos may nominate an interim Vice-President before nominating a new running mate at next years Democratic Convention. Claims in some Sunday newspapers that former Vice-Presidents John Hoynes and Roland Pierce had met with the President over the weekend.

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politico.com, Monday August 31st

Berryhill To Withdraw Presidential Candidacy

It has been reported tonight that former Secretary of State Lewis Berryhill is to withdraw his candidacy for the Presidency of the United States.

Berryhill met at length over the weekend with former President Jed Bartlet who it appears has convinced Berryhill that now is not the time for a primary challenge. The meeting was also attended by former Bartlet Labor Secretary Jack Buckland.

A formal announcement is expected over the coming days, but with President Santos showing a strong poll lead over Berryhill and with the impending issues with Vice-President Baker it seems that the former New York Senator has decided against continuing his campaign.

[Marky Bunny]

BBC.CO.UK/News Tuesday September 1st 2009
Former New York Governor Stephens to address Conservative Party conferance
Former Republican Presidential candidate and three term Governor of New York, Jack Stephens will adress the Conservative Party Conferance in Blackpool next month.
Stephens who ran for the moniation in 2002, and is now supporting Ray Sullivan will be talking about his time as Governor, and he reduced crime, lowered taxes, and helped the poorest families. He will also be speaking at a fringe meeting, about the up-coming presidential election.
"Governor Stephens was an outsanding Governor of New York. We look foward to having him at Conferance" a party spokesman said.

[disputed]

msnbc.com, Tuesday September 1st

White House Denies Vinick Offer

White House Press Secretary Maria Lopez has strongly denied a story in this morning’s papers that President Santos will offer the Vice-Presidency to Secretary of State Arnold Vinick should Vice-President Baker be forced to stand down due to ill health.

At her daily briefing Lopez said “The President has made no such offer to anyone. He believes the country is best served with Secretary Vinick in his current job at the State Department………with regard to the Vice-Presidency until we know the full impact of recent events on Vice-President Baker we will be in no position to know what the next steps will be.”

Lopez also refused to confirm or deny that the President has drawn up a shortlist of three who he could nominate immediately should Baker step down. Question whether that list contained the names of Massachusetts Senator Ryan Lyndell, Virginia Governor Mark Renton and Illinois Governor Andrew Cordy, the Press Secretary would not be drawn “Like I said, we have a Vice-President, unless that changes we won’t be engaging in speculation.”

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townhall.com, Wednesday September 2nd

McCord: No Interest in Vice-Presidency

South Carolina Senator Tim McCord stated categorically last night that he has no interest in becoming Vice-President should Eric Baker resign the office due to ill health.

McCord was asked on Fox News if speculation linking him to the job was accurate, his response was unequivocal. “No. I have no interest in being Vice-President at this time. My thoughts and prayers are with Eric Baker, I hope he gets back to full health soon. I can assure you that should he be unable to continue in the office that I won’t be replacing him.”

Senator McCord’s comments have further increased speculation that the Vice-President will resign following his brain haemorrhage last week. White House sources have continued to deny that any such decision has been taken but with Baker’s doctors predicting a long road to recovery it’s difficult to see any other option.

[disputed]

washingtonpost.com, Wednesday September 2nd

The Mix

Political Blog by Dave Dernazza

Democratic VP Stakes

Well surprise, surprise, no sooner had I posted the top 5 VP contenders than the picture changes. Firstly, on Monday morning the hot news was that Senator Ryan Lyndell was likely to be Santos’ pick if and when Eric Baker resigns, however, Lyndell’s own health issues seem to have put that to bed. Then Wisconsin Governor Mark Katzenmoyer tells voters that he guarantees he will serve out his term as Governor, then just last night Tim McCord, who was looking like an increasing favourite declares he has no interest in the Vice-Presidency. Add to that the fact that Carol Gelsey is likely out as the Dems can’t risk their wafer thin House majority and suddenly your left with only a few realistic names.

5. Isaac Sidley. One of only two of the original top 5 remaining, still a strong choice, but definitely the outsider of the remaining group. Whilst the Republicans will be keen to back whoever Santos nominates to ensure they are not seen as obstructive Sidley might just be a step too far.

4. Wendell Tripplehorn. There seems to be an increasing amount of talk around former Senate Majority Leader Tripplehorn. He has declared his candidacy for Governor of South Dakota, but the Vice-Presidency would be too good an opportunity to turn down for the 58 year old.

3. Alex Thorn. Still in with a strong chance, it seems certain that he’ll run for the Presidency at some point, so the question is whether he is prepared to risk that for what could be a short term stay at Number One Observatory Circle.

2. Mark Renton. The outgoing Governor of Virginia is looking like an increasingly strong choice. He’d help with electoral math – particularly important as Pennsylvania may be in play – and he has experience in Congress to add to his time as Governor. The gubernatorial election is in November so he’s pretty much a lame duck now anyway.

1. Gabriel Tillman. The former Governor of California didn’t appear on many lists, but his sudden reappearance in public life (State of the Union and Capital Beat on Sunday) as well as his high public profile and strong base in the party make him a strong bet. At 60 he’d be well placed to run for the White House in 2014.

[Marky Bunny]

CNN.COM Wednesday September 2nd 2009
Breaking News: President Santos to address the nation Thursday 9.PM EST
The White House has just announced that President Santos will address the nation on all major networks at 9.PM EST, Thursday.
White House Press Secretary Maria Lopez would not be drawn on what the President will say. Speculation is that it will be regarding Vice-President Eric Baker.

[Marky Bunny]

USPolictics.com Thursday September 2nd 2009
Vice-Presidency speculation reaches a frenzy as President will address the nation Thursday night
The announcement today that the President will address the nation 9.PM EST as brought speculation about the Vice-Presidency to a frenzy.
The president held another round of talks with leaders from both parties yesterday. He also had dinner with the four living former Vice-Presidents, Roland Pierce , Lewis Eisenhower, John Hoynes, and Bob Russell. Yes things must be serious the Santos adminstration let "Bingo Bob" into the White-House.
He is also believed to have spoken at length to Presidents Newman and Bartlet.
We understand from sources from within the adminstration that the President will announce the resignation of Vice-President Baker, and who will nominate as his replacement.
Sources speculate who this could be. Various names have been suggested, we understand the White-house had drawn up a "long-list" of twenty names, last week.
It seems now that the long-list has been reduced to a short-list of five names all we understand have been approved both by House and Senate Leadership on both sides.
So who is on the short-list we understand it is Issac Sidley, Alex Thorn, Mark Renton, Lloyd Russell and Gabe Tillman.
The President with his inner advisers will make the final choice Thursday morning. It also believed that the GOP Presidential caniddates prior to the announcement.

[disputed]

realclearpolitics.com, Wednesday September 2nd

Sullivan Registers Poll Lead

A new poll from Gallup has shown that Ray Sullivan has retaken the lead in the Republican Primary race. The poll was taken the day after the Sullivan’s interview on Fox News, suggesting that the interview has been well received by Republican voters.

Sullivan will be particularly pleased by his impressive performance amongst independents where he is has forced his way back into contention. The poll asked voters which of the three front runners they were likely to vote for.

National

All: Sullivan 29%, Walken 27%, Blakemore 24%, Undecided 20%

Republicans: Walken 33%, Sullivan 29%, Blakemore 20%, Undecided 16%

Independents: Blakemore 27%, Walken 24%, Sullivan 22%, Undecided 29%

[disputed]

msnbc.com, Wednesday September 2nd

Sidley: I wouldn’t accept the Vice-Presidency

With Eric Baker’s impending resignation pretty much the worst kept secret around, the speculation as to who will replace him is running wild, however, one man who is refusing to get caught up in it all is Massachusetts Governor Isaac Sidley.

Sidley, who looks likely to cruise to a second term in next year’s gubernatorial election, told reporters today that he has no interest in being Vice-President. “It’s always nice to be listed with so many other impressive names, but I long ago promised my wife and children that this would be my last public office and I intend to stick to that decision.”

When asked what he would he do if he was approached by the President the Governor smiled and said “I’d thank him and tell him I’m not interested.”

Governor Sidley’s decision to rule himself out will increase speculation that Santos has already settled on a nominee and that he intends to announce that tomorrow night.

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Fox News 9.20am, Thursday September 3rd

BREAKING NEWS: Santos to visit Baker this afternoon

It has been confirmed by the White House that President Santos will visit Vice-President Eric Baker this afternoon. Coming ahead of his address to the nation tonight it is expected that Santos will accept the resignation of his Vice-President.

[disputed]

cnn.com, Thursday September 3rd

Dems Confirm Baker To Resign, Shortlist of Three To Succeed

Senior Democrats have confirmed that Vice-President Eric Baker will resign today and that President Santos has decided on who he will nominate to replace him.

Chris Carson, who has worked on every Democratic Presidential campaign since Newman, told CNN that as of yesterday the President had a shortlist of three contenders – former California Governor Gabriel Tillman, former Senate Majority Leader Wendell Tripplehorn and Virginia Governor Mark Renton.

Carson also confirmed that Santos has made his decision. It’s strongly believed that he has been in constant contact with the three men since it became clear that Baker would be unable to continue. “I believe Santos will nominate Baker’s replacement immediately, so the person in question will either know now or will be informed at some stage today.”

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FOX News 10.26am, Thursday September 3rd

BREAKING NEWS: Renton Attends Schools Summit in Norfolk

Governor Mark Renton has told reporters that he will not be the Vice-President whilst attending an Education Summit in Virginia.

Renton said he was “flattered” that so many people thought he was on the shortlist but that he has had no discussion with the President regarding the Vice-President.

“If the Vice-President is stepping down, and I have no confirmation of that, then I can pretty much confirm that I won’t be his replacement.”

[Marky Bunny]

BBC.CO.UK/News Thursday Sepetmber 3rd 2009
Another Poll lead for the Conservatives
The second poll in just over a week for the Conservatives will make good reading for leader James Taylor just a month from the party conferance in Blackpool.
A yougov poll for today's Sun gives a lead of ten points over Labour, and won which if happended at a General election would give the Conservatives a majority of two seats. It is the first poll since Taylor became leader in December 2007, that a published poll would give him a majority in a General election.
Poll
Conservative: 39% 326 seats
Labour: 30% 252 seats
Lib Dem: 17.5% % 41 seats
Result: Conservative Majority of 2 seats.

[disputed]

politico.com, Thursday September 3rd

Mike Day

Posted 10.43am by michaelday

Looks like it’s Tripplehorn or Tillman. Mark Renton’s ruled himself out so unless there is a dramatic outsider who nobody has thought about it's either the former Senate Majority Leader and the former Governor of California.

In spite of the best efforts of cable news, as of yet nobody has been able to track either down.

Sources close to Tripplehorn say he was at home in South Dakota last night but that remains unconfirmed.

[Marky Bunny]

CNN.COM Thursday September 3rd 2009
No sign of Tripplehorn or Tillman
The two men believed President Santos choice for Vice-president, former Senate Majority Leader Wendell Tripplehorn and former California Governor Gabriel Tillman had gone to ground.
Reporters are staking out of the men's homes in South Dakota and California. Neither have been seen since Tuesday.
With the President due to visit the Vice-President in hospital this afternoon, we believe the Presidents choice will be told shortly before being flown to Washington for a press conferance Friday.
We also beleive that the Seven GOP Presidential candidates will be told by the President as soon as the man himself has been informed.

[disputed]

FOX News 12.25pm, Thursday September 3rd

BREAKING NEWS: Tripplehorn arrives at Ronald Reagan International

Former Senate Majority leader Wendell Tripplehorn has arrived in Washington increasing speculation that he will be President Santos’ nominee for the Vice-Presidency. Tripplehorn is believed to have left his South Dakota home early this by a back entrance successfully avoiding reporters.

It’s believed that Tripplehorn departed on a specially chartered flight from Sioux Falls Airport.

[disputed]

politico.com, Thursday September 3rd

Mike Day

Posted 1.04pm by michaelday

Well we know Senator Tripplehorn is in Washington, but where is Tillman? During his time as Governor he was hardly one to shun the cameras, so you’ve got to presume that hiding out somewhere, if that is indeed what he’s doing, must be killing him.

For what it’s worth I think either man is an excellent choice!