NASA without Braun

Say World War 2 had ended in a ceasefire between the US/UK/USSR and Germany, and there is an ensuing Cold War as with the OTL, but it is three way between the US, USSR, and Germany. Obviously, without the fall of the Reich, von Braun and Nazi Germany's scientists remains in Germany.

So what would become of the American program without Braun and the Germans? Would an American native be able to take the lead with all American scientists and/or carry it to such success? Would rockets look different and be developed differently, or would the US manage to retrofit some captured V-2's still? And for that matter, how would the German rockets be and look like? Etc. And overall, what becomes of the space race?

First, Russia would be more hamstrung than the US in this scenario (they bootstrapped themselves after the war with German scientists and technicians)

As to the Germans, how much access to resources do they maintain? Besides brains, you need capital to expend on the research and testing. And a driving need to try more than just orbital platforms (satellites).

Von Braun gave the US a jump start, but remember that the US had quite a few other expat scientists and quite a few home grown ones of their own.

The deciding factor would be the impetus for the research. Is it a three way race of prestige? A strictly military fear? Or is it being pushed by commercial interest?

As tp design differences, that would depend on it's purpose. The US Scrapped a plan to develop a 'space plane' concept they were working on to go with the brute force system of Rockets in their perceived need to do it quick and dirty to beat the Soviets. If that same pressure is taking place, then the ground broken by Von Braun during the war would be everyone's starting point. So the overall look of the various space programs would be the same.

This is all assuming the butterflies aren't going to give everyone indigestion. Is the stalement due to a major change in battlefield successes? Or Does Hitler get's some common sense and sue for peace before he is to overcommitted? Perhaps he dies for some reason and his successors negotiate a ceasefire?

What is the economic condition of the US/USSR afterwards? And Germany is going to be very strapped depending on what the ceasefire point is.

Is the UK independent or has it been taken by Germany ion your scenario? Do they retain their commonwealth or does it spin out of control? Is Japan also involved in this ceasation of hostilities or does the US go on to defeat them? If a part of the ceasefire, how much of their Empire do they retain?

And above all, just how long could this 'cold war' last with three or four corners without someone getting too anxious and restarting it?

My suspicion is that the Germans, for ideological reasons, would be inclined to more strongly support a prestige-driven space program than either the OTL Americans or Russians. They may be too preoccupied elsewhere-digesting Russian territory, or fighting for colonies on Earth. But space travel would fit very easily into their mode of thinking-they're the sort of society that would build a moon base and fly to Mars just to show they're better than everyone else. That assumes, however, that the Germans would continue to be as ideologically driven as they were during the war; many Nazi-victory scenarios assume they would go down a Speer-ian technocratic route, in which case they'd be unlikely to pursue space any further than the US or USSR in OTL.

I may be mistaken, but wasn't the whole disintegrating rocket idea Von Braun's? Without him, I think we'd have been looking at STTO (with the accompanying delay in tech development) or rocket planes.

Von Braun gave the US a jump start, but remember that the US had quite a few other expat scientists and quite a few home grown ones of their own.

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agreed.

Let's go back to 1955. Von Braun is building the Jupiter rocket, which led to the Saturn. ARPA team, US Army, german ingeniers.

But
There's many others rocket program in the USA outside von Braun.

Atlas, Titan, Vanguard and Redstone come to mind. Once US ingenieers got V-2s, nothing stopped them.

USSR already had three major ingeneers in the field : Korolev, Yangel, and Chelomei, plus Glushko for the engines.
These four men really hated each others; their rivalries plagued the soviet space program.
Add Von Braun to the list, and you have an excess of rocket ingeniers in the Soviet Union...

Given this scenario, how likely would it have been that we would have acquired any V-2's? A cease fire of some sort assumes a realitively intact Germany and I think that would have made getting any V-2's pretty difficult if not impossible. We learned a lot from those rockets and not having them could have significantly delayed our development efforts.

No Von Braun means no push for NOVA class boosters, no outsized Apollo. You'll still have a civilian program, but the Air Force will be a lot more important. Titan becomes the base for the space program. Gemini becomes more important, or perhaps GE Apollo.. or both. I could see an EOR GE Apollo made from two Titan 3L4 launches. Should be a lot cheaper and more sustainable.

It's also possible that, without Von Braun's opposition, you might get the Air Force's Lunex stable of boosters and missions. Probably not, though.

One wonders if the GALCIT program would take its place...or what would happen to GALCIT in the McCArthy era...

What about Godard, would'nt he be the one to replace Von Brauwn?

TelClaven said:

I may be mistaken, but wasn't the whole disintegrating rocket idea Von Braun's? Without him, I think we'd have been looking at STTO (with the accompanying delay in tech development) or rocket planes.

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I thought he designed the Saturn V... or maybe it was Nova...

Cythia said:

First, Russia would be more hamstrung than the US in this scenario (they bootstrapped themselves after the war with German scientists and technicians)

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It was the US that got the most of it, operation paperclip anyone? Along with Unit 731.

Cythia said:

Von Braun gave the US a jump start, but remember that the US had quite a few other expat scientists and quite a few home grown ones of their own.

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Point is, V2 where launched by Germany first and that was despite slacking on the project until 1942, the US would still be able to launch rockets on its own but at least several years later than historically.
Von Braun´s projects where given priority because they where perceived, by the US gov no less, as better.

The snag is that America/USA had only produced the Private and Corporal series of rockets and Goddard (correct spelling) was under-funded and ignored. By 1941 Britain had Isaac Lubbock's 1-ton thrust lox/petrol static firing rocket motor and Whittle's jet engine (the USA only got that, like penicillin and the nuclear bomb, thanks to British goodwill). That actually puts Britain further ahead in rocket developments in 1944 - ironic, isn't it?

If America had not got involved in a European war (by Hitler and Japan not becoming allies) it is possible that all the technology transfer from Britain to America would not have occurred. However, for that to happen, Hitler would have had either to die or to get Britain to declare itself neutral after Dunkirk. Alternatively, if Hitler had somehow prevented France from declaring war over Poland... h'mmm...not possible without ASBs or the French government being utterly supine... Hitler's objective should have been confined to Russia... Any ideas, folks?

nandalf said:

What about Godard, wouldn't he be the one to replace Von Braun?

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Goddard died in 1945. Perhaps Theodore von Karman. (And see the post above for the GALCIT program...)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GALCIT

Orville_third said:

Goddard died in 1945. Perhaps Theodore von Karman. (And see the post above for the GALCIT program...)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GALCIT

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My guess is that the space program proceeds more quickly. As others pointed out, there were several rocket teams in the US, not just von Brauns. While the V-2 did give the US a head start, they then frittered away most of a decade.

If the Nazis stay in power in Germany, my guess is that they launch showy rockets 'to prove the superiority of Nazi science', and that the US and USSR will play catch-up quickly.

Note that, while the Soviets got a lot of techs and some material from the V2 project, the US got the big names. In the USSR, the 'big names' were all Russian. Sure, they, too, got a leg up with V2 hardware, but they were quite capable of doing work on their own.


I'm guessing a 2 stage Nazi rocket (A9/10) by about 2 years after the war's over? When, if ever, they get something in orbit is another question, but the US and USSR should both be orbiting satellites by... '55?

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

My guess is that the space program proceeds more quickly. As others pointed out, there were several rocket teams in the US, not just von Brauns. While the V-2 did give the US a head start, they then frittered away most of a decade.
If the Nazis stay in power in Germany, my guess is that they launch showy rockets 'to prove the superiority of Nazi science', and that the US and USSR will play catch-up quickly.
Note that, while the Soviets got a lot of techs and some material from the V2 project, the US got the big names. In the USSR, the 'big names' were all Russian. Sure, they, too, got a leg up with V2 hardware, but they were quite capable of doing work on their own.
I'm guessing a 2 stage Nazi rocket (A9/10) by about 2 years after the war's over? When, if ever, they get something in orbit is another question, but the US and USSR should both be orbiting satellites by... '55?

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Pardon me, dear Dathi, but your look upon the development stage of rocket research in both the US and Russia in the forties is a bit too rosy. Yes, there were other research teams in the US and Russia, BUT: After the german rockets, jet fighters, blue prints, projects and scientists were pilfered by the Allies, several US scientists admitted more or less openly that german jet plane research (both fighter and bomber) was more than a decade ahead of the US. In Rocketry the lead was even more pronounced.
Without access to the german research, which this scenario implies, there is huge gap to close for both nations. Even slightly less well-founded, due to the end of the war, german rocket research would keep a comfortable lead.

Beer said:

Pardon me, dear Dathi, but your look upon the development stage of rocket research in both the US and Russia in the forties is a bit too rosy. Yes, there were other research teams in the US and Russia, BUT: After the german rockets, jet fighters, blue prints, projects and scientists were pilfered by the Allies, several US scientists admitted more or less openly that german jet plane research (both fighter and bomber) was more than a decade ahead of the US. In Rocketry the lead was even more pronounced.
Without access to the german research, which this scenario implies, there is huge gap to close for both nations. Even slightly less well-founded, due to the end of the war, german rocket research would keep a comfortable lead.

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Well, so what?

Once the US SEES V-2s and swept wing jet fighters, they can imitate them. Sure, they may need British help, especially on jet engines, but in a 3way cold-war era, they'll get it.

Given the disaster the Nazi economic system was, I think you're going to find the German system breaking down/seizing up, whatever, a decade or two after the war ends. So, yes the Germans have a major head start, but the US and Soviets have far more resources.

OTL, the US basically only played with V-2s and derivatives for most of a decade. Once they got seriously started, it would take them a few years to get to the V-2 level on there own, perhaps, but I still think that 'beating the Nazis' and/or 'beating the Commies' would allow an orbital launch by '55. It's possible the Nazis could beat them, certainly, but the Nazis would be soon out matched.

Actually, I think without Braun, any Moon mission would still be a single big rocket. "Nova" was a JPL idea that predated NASA, and gained traction in the early 1960's while von Braun was pushing for missions that used many Saturn I-sized rockets.

That said, with the PoD, I don't know that there would have been as big a push for the Moon as OTL. Without von Braun's campaigning in the early 1950's for manned spaceflight, it wouldn't have received a fraction of the support it did in OTL.

Worst case, you end up with an Air Force dominated space program focused on orbital bombardment.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

Well, so what?
Once the US SEES V-2s and swept wing jet fighters, they can imitate them. Sure, they may need British help, especially on jet engines, but in a 3way cold-war era, they'll get it.

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It´s a common misconception that you can copy technology fast just from seeing it. This functions only with low tech. High Tech, like jet planes and rockets are, is a different can of worms. In the scenario here, the US has no access to the german research. So they must, unlike OTL , research the basics for themselves, instead of stealing it. This takes time. Just putting swept wings into the design after seeing it on the german planes does not do it. Airflow, currents, etc. have to be researched, there are no stolen german blue prints to just look about it.

Given the disaster the Nazi economic system was, I think you're going to find the German system breaking down/seizing up, whatever, a decade or two after the war ends. So, yes the Germans have a major head start, but the US and Soviets have far more resources.

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This system had problems because it was geared toward wartime construction. After a war, with Germany holding some of her conquered territories, this will level out. The US and Russia have more ressources, but Germany can still get materials on the world market.
As an aside: The 3 top exporting nations at the moment are: China,Germany,USA
Germany is the smallest country of those (around the size of Montana) and has a bit more than a quarter the population of the US (about a 20th of the pop of China), but is still in the fight for top exporter of the world. Germany is an industrial power in OTL and in this TTL, Germany has more size and the Nazis did not do much to the foundation of Germany´s industrial might. Your so called disaster had more to do with the circumstances than the basics. TTL´s Germany has a lead in research and the potential to stay ahead and for more than 1,2 decades.

OTL, the US basically only played with V-2s and derivatives for most of a decade. Once they got seriously started, it would take them a few years to get to the V-2 level on there own, perhaps, but I still think that 'beating the Nazis' and/or 'beating the Commies' would allow an orbital launch by '55. It's possible the Nazis could beat them, certainly, but the Nazis would be soon out matched.

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As said above, in TTL the US must research everything the hard way, you underestimate the impact of the stolen german research and scientists. And Germany will try to stay ahead of her rivals and has state-of-the-art tech teams. The US might be able to do an orbital launch by 55 as you proposed, but the tech gap won´t be closed. They will still be way behind Germany, esp. if there is a space race. If the US orbits in 55, then Germany will be on the way to the moon by that time.

Beer said:

It´s a common misconception that you can copy technology fast just from seeing it.

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Very true, but knowing something is possible is half the battle. Photographs give a good starting point.

Beer said:

This functions only with low tech. High Tech, like jet planes and rockets are, is a different can of worms. In the scenario here, the US has no access to the german research. So they must, unlike OTL , research the basics for themselves, instead of stealing it. This takes time. Just putting swept wings into the design after seeing it on the german planes does not do it. Airflow, currents, etc. have to be researched, there are no stolen german blue prints to just look about it.

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Ja, but the US and UK had some very bright people, too. Once they start working on it they can catch up fast.

Beer said:

This system had problems because it was geared toward wartime construction. After a war, with Germany holding some of her conquered territories, this will level out. The US and Russia have more ressources, but Germany can still get materials on the world market.
As an aside: The 3 top exporting nations at the moment are: China,Germany,USA
Germany is the smallest country of those (around the size of Montana) and has a bit more than a quarter the population of the US (about a 20th of the pop of China), but is still in the fight for top exporter of the world. Germany is an industrial power in OTL and in this TTL, Germany has more size and the Nazis did not do much to the foundation of Germany´s industrial might. Your so called disaster had more to do with the circumstances than the basics. TTL´s Germany has a lead in research and the potential to stay ahead and for more than 1,2 decades.

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But the Nazi educational system was a disaster, and the economy was based on squeezing resources from conquered areas. Sure, if they decrease spending on military stuff they can put more resources into tech. But the US had vastly more industrial power. It was, OTL, able to pull off the B-29 project and the Manhattan project and furnish a large army and (other) airforce, without even going to a full wartime economy.

OTL, Germany has very well trained work force. That would NOT be the case iTTL.

Beer said:

As said above, in TTL the US must research everything the hard way, you underestimate the impact of the stolen german research and scientists. And Germany will try to stay ahead of her rivals and has state-of-the-art tech teams. The US might be able to do an orbital launch by 55 as you proposed, but the tech gap won´t be closed. They will still be way behind Germany, esp. if there is a space race. If the US orbits in 55, then Germany will be on the way to the moon by that time.

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Nope. Germany may well still be ahead in 55, but the US will be catching up really fast, and the Soviets will likely be as well.

I don't think I underestimate the importance of the captured German techs at all. I think YOU underestimate the vast indifference the US had in space from 1945 to the early 50's. There were bright people in the US, too, you know, and 1945-1955 is AFAIK longer than it took von Braun to build his stuff from scratch. Remember, the size of US industry and the depth of her talent.

Oh. If by 'on the way to the moon' you mean a 10kg lunar probe, then, yes, I'll buy that. If you mean so much as a man in orbit, I really doubt it.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

Very true, but knowing something is possible is half the battle. Photographs give a good starting point.
Ja, but the US and UK had some very bright people, too. Once they start working on it they can catch up fast.

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I don´t doubt the intellectual capacities of Russia, UK or the US, but working from nearly scratch with just some photos as help is hard, no matter which country attempts it. You will get dead ends rather often, which costs time.

But the Nazi educational system was a disaster, and the economy was based on squeezing resources from conquered areas. Sure, if they decrease spending on military stuff they can put more resources into tech. But the US had vastly more industrial power. It was, OTL, able to pull off the B-29 project and the Manhattan project and furnish a large army and (other) airforce, without even going to a full wartime economy.
OTL, Germany has very well trained work force. That would NOT be the case iTTL.

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As much as I dislike the Nazis, they could be very pragmatic when it suited them. The school system had indoctrination added in, but nothing that reduced quality as much as you think. The Nazis were technophiles and knew you get it only from a well-oiled industry. Even the "children and kitchen" for the women was not set in stone. There were plans for after the war to "uplift" a sizeable part (mostly the nordic blonde, but that´s a given considering who made this plans)of the german women to something of "elite women". Very highly educated, some military knowledge, shooting and driving skills, etc. to be the foundation of the nazi plans for racial purity.

Nope. Germany may well still be ahead in 55, but the US will be catching up really fast, and the Soviets will likely be as well.

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Yes, the gap will be smaller in 55, but still larger than you think.

[/QUOTE]I don't think I underestimate the importance of the captured German techs at all. I think YOU underestimate the vast indifference the US had in space from 1945 to the early 50's. There were bright people in the US, too, you know, and 1945-1955 is AFAIK longer than it took von Braun to build his stuff from scratch. Remember, the size of US industry and the depth of her talent.
Oh. If by 'on the way to the moon' you mean a 10kg lunar probe, then, yes, I'll buy that. If you mean so much as a man in orbit, I really doubt it.[/QUOTE] As said above, I don´t doubt the brains of the US, but you underestimate the difficulties to start from near the beginning. Germany began in the thirties and build a decades-of-development lead by the mid fourties. In the race to catch up, the US will run into dead ends, no matter how good the teams are, because some problems always pop up when you try new research. This is true for Germany too, but they have a tech buffer over the others in the space race. Given the fact, that the US has a larger pool of researchers (not that much more, since Germany is one of the worlds research centers to this day, it won´t be different in TTL, but still larger) they might be able to narrow the lead down to a decade by 55.
Von Braun was not only a good engineer, but a good salesman too. And he wanted to bring mankind into space. If he had to showcase the military capabilities to get get founding for a full space programm, he´d do it. TTL´s Germany will keep on founding rocketry. With the research going on without stop Germany will be able to do the moon landing in the late fiefties.