The Argentine-Brazilian War of 1874

Gonzaga

In June 18th 1874 Doctor Pamphylo Manoel Freire de Carvalho, surgeon of the Brazilian Alto Uruguai's fleet - which operated on the Uruguay River at the border with Argentina - attended a civil patient in the Argentine city of Alvear. Apparently he was very required on the other side of the border, because he had a fame of being a very competent doctor. However, that day after he left the house of his patient he was attacked and beaten by two Italian immigrants, Guido Benati and Vincenzo Legato, barely escaping alive from the fight.

The commander of the Alto Uruguai’s flee, Captain Estanislau Przewodowsky, asked to the local authorities a punishment against the offenders. However, by some reason they did nothing, and against all international rules he demanded then both Italians should be brought to the Brazilian ships where he would punish them. As, of course, the authorities refused to make it, he ordered both ships he commanded (the Alagoas and the Rio Grande) to open fire over the city.

The shots were too high, and could not reach any building, but were enough to make the population of Alvear expel both Italians. Przewodowsky considered it satisfactory and stopped the bombardment. Nine days later, when the Brazilian government received news about it, he was sacked from his position and needed to go to a Council of War. The Argentine government accepted the excuses of the Brazilian government, and nothing happened.

Now, WI one of the shots of the ship’s cannons had failed and fallen in the city, destroying important buildings and killing people? The situation becomes worse and Argentina declares war against Brazil. What happens?
 
minifidel

minifidel

Well, 1874 is before the "Conquest of the Desert" is really done, and a war with Brazil would require a massive shift of resources away from Patagonia, which could delay southern expansion indefinitely (which could lead to a bigger Chile in the south).

Although my knowledge of Brazilian history is... nonexistent, especially for this period, I get the impression that the Argentine army would be in a better position, with experience from fighting in the south and with a professional core (this is the period in which Argentina was moving towards becoming a modern state, including a professional army).

I don't really know what would happen at sea, although I've never gotten the impression Argentina has ever had the manpower (...seapower) to compete with Brazil.
 

Admiral Brown

minifidel said:
Well, 1874 is before the "Conquest of the Desert" is really done, and a war with Brazil would require a massive shift of resources away from Patagonia, which could delay southern expansion indefinitely (which could lead to a bigger Chile in the south).
Click to expand...

I agree, ...unless of course the war is very brief, and it is ended in good terms (so Argentina doesn't need to keep a lot of troops on its borders with Brazil). If that's the case, Argentina could focus on the South again.

minifidel said:
Although my knowledge of Brazilian history is... nonexistent, especially for this period, I get the impression that the Argentine army would be in a better position, with experience from fighting in the south and with a professional core (this is the period in which Argentina was moving towards becoming a modern state, including a professional army).
Click to expand...

But how much usefull "experience" could they have gained by fighting against 10.000 to 30.000 thousands nomadic Indians? I think that their experience during the Paraguayan war would have been much more usefull that the one gained in fighting against the indians.

Also, I'm not sure if the modernisation of the army was complete by 1874. Sarmiento had created modern schools for officers and wanted to create a proffesional army, but I don't know if he had already achieve it by 1874 (We could assume it was achieved by 1879, ...but was it in 1874?). Most of those defending the Southern frontier were still (in 1874) poorly equiped gauchos like the mythical Martin Fierro. And the army who had fought the Triple Alliance war (just a few years ago)was still formed mainly by conscripts who had to be recruited by force.

So, I don't know how modern the army was in 1874. I tend to think it was in a period of transition from a national army of conscripts and "officers" who hadn't followed the military carrier, to a fully modern and professional army.

This periods aren't usually good to fight wars.But then again, we should know how Brazil's army was in those days, and I don't have a clue.

minifidel said:
I don't really know what would happen at sea, although I've never gotten the impression Argentina has ever had the manpower (...seapower) to compete with Brazil.
Click to expand...


I kind of have the same impression.
 
nandalf

nandalf

To be honest,i think it will depend on how long the war would last,in a long and prolonged war i believe Brazil would win,but a quick war it would be won by the side whith a better inicial preparation and less nerves and polítical capital.My guess is that it could go both ways.In 1874 Brazil was still an empire has a strong and monarquist navy,the army i can not say much.The empire was more political stable than the republic though.
 

Tocomocho

In the case it's useful, remember this is just 4 years after the WotTA so Brazil still has an occupation army deployed in Paraguay (it withdrew in OTL 1876). How likely is an offensive down La Plata basin, towards Buenos Aires itself?
 
nandalf

nandalf

That would make very hard for a quick solution.Well if no outside country intervenes we shall have a stalemate,whoever had more stamina would win. I sincerily do not know if it is possible for Brazil to make an offensive through Paraguai,but the army there would shurly make for "rapid"deployment force.
 

maverick

Banned
I'm kinda surprised that nobody remembered that this is the same year in which Mitre and the Liberal party launched the Ill-fated Revolution of 1874, in September

Now, since this Revolution was in the makings since at least the winter and Sarmiento was aware of it, at least to the degree in which he made some preemptive moves in September against the attempted revolution.

Also, lets remember, that even if Brazil and Argentina have the same experience from the War of the Triple Alliance, there's still other factors to consider...what happens to Mitre's conspiracy if there's war with Brazil...not to mention, that while most of the Armed forces are with the government, there were enough rebel units IOTL to make the revolution last from September 23rd to November.

But in any case, Mitre can do two things:
1. Launch the Revolution anyways, but General Arredondo, who led the Mutiny of the Cordoba Frontier might side with the Government in case of war and be sent with his troops to the northern border.
2. Wait and launch his attempt to return to the Presidency later, which is also possible...
 

Gonzaga

It could happen, but it would dependson how the war is developed. Brazil would not be interested in such war. The casus belli was the irresponsability of a captain acting against international law. At first, Argentina would do a fight only for "national honour". Probably their aim would be the extinction of the Alto Uruguai's Fleet, while Brazil would fight more for reaction.

However, it could become a wider conflict due to unsettled issues in Paraguay. After the war, the Brazilian government decided to withdraw their previous position of allow Argentina to take all the right bank of River Paraguay. It would give the Argentines a territory bordering Mato Grosso. The question would only be solved in 1876 by American arbitration and the signature of the Treaty of Limits.

Brazil could not afford other long war just after the War of the Triple Alliance. With a war in 1874, which Brazil didn’t want to fight, and the Imperial government still facing economical problems originated from the War of the Triple Alliance, I think that the Brazilians would try a compromise as soon as possible. Probably they would accept a deal, with Brazil recognizing the Argentine possession of the right bank of Paraguay River and extinct the fleet.

Of course, it would depend also on how well the Argentines fight. If due to instability in Argentina, maybe originated by Mitre’s revolution, then Brazil could believe they have an opportunity to win and stay in the fight. However, the Brazilian government didn’t have any important issue to solve with Argentina, and it would still be an unpopular war. We might see an earlier fall of the monarchy, as the Army would gain much more importance.
 

maverick

Banned
A long war wouldn't happen four years after Paraguay, no way...

In any case, ordered in level of plausibility, from more likely to less likely, here's some scenarios:

Quick Argentine Victory: Both sides do limited mobilization, preventing Mitre's revolution, Argentina wins some minor skirmishes against an unwilling and demoralized Brazilian occupation troops that were hastidly rushed from Paraguay to the border. Brazil offers a compromise by which they support Buenos Aires' claims on Paraguayan territory and they recognize the Argentine rights in the Uruguay River. The emperor faces such opposition during and after the war that the army overthrows him, maybe right there and then in 1874.

Stalemate: Assuming the Brazilian troops in Paraguay mobilize faster than ours, which is possible, and occupy some positions in Misiones, win some minor skirmishes, but the Emperor still faces opposition, and neither Sarmiento nor Avellaneda want to deal with the Brazilians. Some compromise is reached by the end of the year.

Marginal Brazilian victory: Also depends on a short victorious war, otherwise, the Emperor is overthrown earlier.

Brazilian Victory: Let's assume that both Mitre and Arredondo decide to backstab the country in a time of national crisis and war against the evil smelly foreigners; southern Cordoba, Buenos Aires and other parts are affected, and at the same time, the Brazilian Generals and Pedro II manage not to get kicked by the anti-war people...they take the already deployed army in Paraguay, otherwise conscription ends in Revolution...

They march on Misiones and part of Corrientes and manage to get an armistice...In any case I don't see them messing in a bloody civil war in Argentina just to support Mitre and get Misiones or any other land they didn't want at this particular point...

Whether Mitre wins in this last scenario is doubtful nonetheless...

Scenarios developed thanks to what Gonzaga said about the mood in Brazil and the army just now, not developed on any bias, especially since the Brazilians could muster an army five times bigger than ours...
 

Gonzaga

maverick said:
A long war wouldn't happen four years after Paraguay, no way...

In any case, ordered in level of plausibility, from more likely to less likely, here's some scenarios:

Quick Argentine Victory: Both sides do limited mobilization, preventing Mitre's revolution, Argentina wins some minor skirmishes against an unwilling and demoralized Brazilian occupation troops that were hastidly rushed from Paraguay to the border. Brazil offers a compromise by which they support Buenos Aires' claims on Paraguayan territory and they recognize the Argentine rights in the Uruguay River. The emperor faces such opposition during and after the war that the army overthrows him, maybe right there and then in 1874.

Stalemate: Assuming the Brazilian troops in Paraguay mobilize faster than ours, which is possible, and occupy some positions in Misiones, win some minor skirmishes, but the Emperor still faces opposition, and neither Sarmiento nor Avellaneda want to deal with the Brazilians. Some compromise is reached by the end of the year.

Marginal Brazilian victory: Also depends on a short victorious war, otherwise, the Emperor is overthrown earlier.

Brazilian Victory: Let's assume that both Mitre and Arredondo decide to backstab the country in a time of national crisis and war against the evil smelly foreigners; southern Cordoba, Buenos Aires and other parts are affected, and at the same time, the Brazilian Generals and Pedro II manage not to get kicked by the anti-war people...they take the already deployed army in Paraguay, otherwise conscription ends in Revolution...

They march on Misiones and part of Corrientes and manage to get an armistice...In any case I don't see them messing in a bloody civil war in Argentina just to support Mitre and get Misiones or any other land they didn't want at this particular point...

Whether Mitre wins in this last scenario is doubtful nonetheless...

Scenarios developed thanks to what Gonzaga said about the mood in Brazil and the army just now, not developed on any bias, especially since the Brazilians could muster an army five times bigger than ours...
Click to expand...

I liked your ideas, I just think that the end of the Empire right in 1874 is a bit unlikely. Of course, it still can happen, but slavery was still legal, and the Empire could still find allies among the slaveholders. It doesn't mean the Emperor could not be deposed in 1874, but it would need to be a much more violent and bloody business than it would be in 1889.
 

maverick

Banned
Gonzaga said:
I liked your ideas, I just think that the end of the Empire right in 1874 is a bit unlikely. Of course, it still can happen, but slavery was still legal, and the Empire could still find allies among the slaveholders. It doesn't mean the Emperor could not be deposed in 1874, but it would need to be a much more violent and bloody business than it would be in 1889.
Click to expand...

Naturally, actually, something somewhat similar to the 1893-1895 civil war might take place in 1874 if scenario 1 had taken place...
 
nandalf

nandalf

Certainly,brazilian mood will be against the war in 1874,but if i understood the POd,Argentina strike Brazil heavily after the incident.So what can the emperor do?By the way an argentinian invasion would not be something the people would raly?To be honest i think a war at this time no matter who the victor would extremily ruiunous for both countries.
 

Gonzaga

nandalf said:
Certainly,brazilian mood will be against the war in 1874,but if i understood the POd,Argentina strike Brazil heavily after the incident.
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Actually Argentina doesn't need to strike heavily Brazil, and I think they wouldn't want to do such effort. Their first aim, due to the POD, would be surely destroy or capture the Brazilian ships on the Uruguay River. And the entire "Alto Uruguai's fleet" consisted of only two small ships, nothing really difficult to achieve. Also, they don't need to invade Brazil, which would be a logistical problem. They could only attack the Brazilian forces in Paraguay, something much more easier, and take defensive positions in Corrientes and Missiones.

Then the logistics would work against Brazil. The war against Paraguay and the war against Oribe and Rosas, 20 years earlier, were successful the the Brazilian forces because they had people within Argentina supporting them and providing food. They wouldn't have it in this case, and so they couldn't do much far away from the border.

The problem of this war is that it isn't like the War of the Triple Alliance, where Brazil was attacked by Paraguay and it made people support the war, because they wanted revenge. Now Brazil attacked due to a stupid mistake of an incompetent commander, and and all they want is to calm down the Argentines.

The best chance of Brazil would be use the Navy instead of the Army. We historically had a better Navy than Argentina, and so Brazilians could try to block Buenos Aires and force the government to an agreement, but I'm not sure how the Argentine Navy was improved by that time and if Sarmiento would accept that.
 
juanml82

juanml82

But I don't think that incident would result in a large war. Neither country (or at least neither government) could politically afford another war, let alone economically afford it. Such an incident would probably just end in a a compromise of sorts.
In a case of war, the issue if Brazil blocks (again) Buenos Aires is that eventually that draws the UK into the diplomatic table, as they don't want any port blocked - unless they block it themselves
 
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