WI no Carlist War in Spain?

[Gonzaga]

WI Ferdinand VII had been even more unlucky than IOTL and his two daughters from Maria Christina had died young, before his own death? What would happen in Spain, with his brother Charles as the legitimate king, without the need of a Carlist War to take the throne from his niece Isabella?

[minifidel]

Spain becomes even more reactionary? Earlier republican revolutions?

[maverick]

Well, basically a return to the Decada Ominosa (1823-1833)...

It is hard to say what would the policies of Carlos V be...

Would he support the Fueros without their support in a civil war?

The Catholic Church remains powerful, the Fueros too, absolutism remains, the opponents of the regime continue exiled...

There are of course military rising, pronunciamientos and threats of civil war like during the reign of Isabel in the 1830s, 1840s and 1850s...

Maybe the Vicalvarada of 1854 takes place in 1848 as France and Italy are swept by Revolutions...

[Gonzaga]

Originally Posted by maverick

It is hard to say what would the policies of Carlos V be...

Would he support the Fueros without their support in a civil war?

That's one of my doubts. Without the civil war, could we see him trying to expand centralism of the government?

[maverick]

The safest bet is to continue with his brothers' retarded policies...

[Lord Grattan]

Originally Posted by Gonzaga

WI Ferdinand VII had been even more unlucky than IOTL and his two daughters from Maria Christina had died young, before his own death? What would happen in Spain, with his brother Charles as the legitimate king, without the need of a Carlist War to take the throne from his niece Isabella?

Thanks for posting this thread. In my CoHE TL this is what happened (Ferdinand dying childless) and I am at a losss about what to do later on in Spain under King Carlos V.

[maverick]

Originally Posted by Lord Grattan

Thanks for posting this thread. In my CoHE TL this is what happened (Ferdinand dying childless) and I am at a losss about what to do later on in Spain under King Carlos V.

Well, you could check my TL "The Fallen Prince", in which Carlos becomes King in 1810, but that one has a different backround...or Fearlessleader's "Viva Carlos", although that one is about Carlos winning the Carlist war...

[Tocomocho]

Originally Posted by maverick

Would he support the Fueros without their support in a civil war?

Originally Posted by Gonzaga

That's one of my doubts. Without the civil war, could we see him trying to expand centralism of the government?

As weird as it sounds, centralism is a liberal opinion at this time, as it eliminates inner barriers, estimulates commerce and industrialization, and in the end, makes bourgeoises more powerfull and landowners less (economy > politics).

No centralism. No territorial reform, either, so the provincial division of Spain would be... "weirder". Carlos would maintain the fueros de facto, but not "defend" them. In the same way, he will conveniently forget that the old kingdoms in Aragon used to have fueros too.

Maybe the Vicalvarada of 1854 takes place in 1848 as France and Italy are swept by Revolutions...

Probably. Although I expect that to be a more disruptive event than OTL Vicalvarada. Carlos V is going to fill his luggage and someone other to seize his crown. 30 years old Carlos VI is probably too 'old' to be trusted so... what? King Francisco? What of the two, the distracted painter or his son, the man who likes to wear laces? We might see a History of Spain more like the History of France from there on...

Anyway, there is another thing to considere before: Will Carlos V (and the Austrians and Russians and Prussians...) support his nephew Miguel during the struggle for the Portuguese throne? If so, how will Britain and France react? Effects in Brazil?

[Gonzaga]

Originally Posted by Tocomocho

Anyway, there is another thing to considere before: Will Carlos V (and the Austrians and Russians and Prussians...) support his nephew Miguel during the struggle for the Portuguese throne? If so, how will Britain and France react? Effects in Brazil?

I believe Carlos V would support Miguel. He wouldn't let Portugal become a nest for Liberals right on the back of Spain. I'm not sure if it would be enough to ensure the victory ot Miguelists though. For effects in Brazil, it depends on the fate of Pedro. If he dies on schedule, there wouldn't have many. But if he survives then the politics in Brazil remain divided between the Restorers (who wanted him back in Rio), the Moderated Liberals, who didn't want him back, but also defended more conservative policies, and the Exalted Liberals, who wanted Pedro I as far as possible and defended an extreme liberalization of the government.

IOTL his death finished the Restoration Party, and without the fear of Pedro coming back the internal divergences of the Moderates caused several political struggles and reorganization of forces, which were the beggining of the two major parties of the Second Empire: the Liberals and the Conservatives. But if he stays alive then all those former divisions remain. Also, if he is defeated in Portugal, then he probably would go back to Brazil, causing a lot of headaches for the Parliament in Rio.