WI Mexico acted on Zimmerman note

[Pearlshire19]

What if the Mexicans joined the Central Powers and started a second Mexican-American War? How ill that change things in Europe and the Americas as well (if the Zimmerman note was not a fake)?

[Wolfhound]

Mexico is screwed. Basically.

America will be adding 3 or 4 new states around this time in TTL.

[Susano]

Originally Posted by Wolfhound

Mexico is screwed. Basically.

America will be adding 3 or 4 new states around this time in TTL.

Yes, that never was in doubt. Mexico was to provide a sufficient distraction for the USA, though, and that could be achieved...

[boredatwork]

Depends on whether or not the Americans realize that the Zimmerman note existed in the first place.

For Mexico - the prognosis is poor. The patient is likely to experience sudden loss upper portions of the body due to aggressive response by foreign antibodies to attempted absorption.

Given the patient's traumatic state (internal disorder and strife as noted in low stability count), the patients long-term viability without ongoing external support from the now dominant upper sybiote us unlikely.

(sorry wife has become big House fan of late).

Mexico loses northern tier, doughboys that would've gone to France (and some supplies) head south instead.

Likely that the US would have a long term presence in at least portions of the remaining mexican state(s).

Assuming that this happened early in WW1, the US could easily be sufficiently distracted as to largely ignore the war (assuming, of course, that the rationale for the attack never comes out).

Given the balance of forces in the WH, I would have to guess that the CPs would deny all knowledge of any supposed alliance, and accuse their Ciudad de Mexico counterparts of delusions of grandeur.

Not entirely sure about the impact in Europe, perhaps the Germans do slightly better than in OTL (no doughboys, somewhat less supply to the Entente). Then again, any supplies/ammo etc provided to Mexico would have to come from supplies otherwise destined for fronts in Europe - so if the CP provided Mexico with enough aid for a non-lunatic to start the fight in the WH, they would be shooting themselves in the foot with regards to fighting closer to home (this of course presumes that the supplies are moved out before hostilities start and the RN starts shutting down CP ports).

[Pearlshire19]

Germany could have also afforded to send troops to help Mexico since they did not have to deal with the Eastern Front, due to the Russian Revolution. What if that happened and there would be the Rio Grande Front and that would be surrounded by trenches and the Germans and Mexicans might have possibly taken over Texas (not probable however). From there they could possibly take over the Mid-West, which would cut the US in half. Also they might have gotten some assistance from German immigrants who were victims of lynching and they might have joined the fight there. Then the Germans and Mexicans advance Eastward towards DC and takes over DC, but leave a defense at the rockies to make sure the US does not act from the West Coast. They could then take over the West Coast and that would be possible if they attacked before the US started its draft and got the troops ready for combat. It would had to be an immediate attack and the Germans would have had to move the troops across the Atlantic before they sent the telegram, but not early enough to be extremely noticeable by the US or allies. They might have had to send them either through the Mediterranean Sea or might have had to go through Istanbul and the Ottoman Empire and sneak them from Jidda, in Arabia down the Red Sea and around Africa and across the Atlantic from there. That strategy would mean they will have to start moving way before they even sent the telegram. That might make a possible Central Power victory in the United States

[Zyzzyva]

...Aaand we slide from "cool, if improbable" to "impossible". Where to start?

The Germans need every available man and gun on the Western Front. They can't move troops to Mexico - the brits'll have a field day, sinking transports left and right. It's just like Sealion, only instead of a desperate 40-km crossing under aircover in barges you have a desperate 4,000 mile crossing with no aircover. In barges. There's essentially no way a Germano-Mexican force can have the logistics to take the US on and the US'll be in Mexico City in months. German-Americans, some isolated incidents aside, were pro-american and wouldn't form a fifth column. Even assuming a total sneak-attack V a peacetime US, the Germexicans can't take over anything important - American industry in 1918 is effectively east of the Mississippi and north of the Ohio, which is far too far away to be reached from Mexico before the US has the crushing counterattack of doom prepared. May I repeat again, unless the Germans have been planning this since before 1914 - producing a lack of front-line divisions that is likely to come back bite them in the opening phases of the war - they can't get troops to Mexico. The RN rules the atlantic at this point; the mediterranean is closed to everyone who isn't an Ally and Germany has no shipping anywhere other than the north sea.

I think that about covers it.

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by Pearlshire19

What if the Mexicans joined the Central Powers and started a second Mexican-American War? How ill that change things in Europe and the Americas as well (if the Zimmerman note was not a fake)?

The Zimmerman Telegram was not a fake - even Zimmerman owned up to it.

I have to agree with Zyzzyva this has most certainly gone from "cool, if improbable" to "impossible".

[Johnrankins]

Pretty much. The RN doesn't really have to do much, the river barges will never make it 4,000 miles on the high seas.

[Zyzzyva]

Originally Posted by David S Poepoe

The Zimmerman Telegram was not a fake - even Zimmerman owned up to it.

Proving that he was not qualified to run a bratwurst stand. Honestly! The US is all "hmmm... this is almost too good... it might be an allied fake..." and then Zimmerman says "Oh, yes, I did that. I also hate puppies and eat belgian babies spitted on the bayonet. Have a nice day."

But the original POD is an interesting idea. I'm not aware enough of Mexican history to figure out what would make them go for it - weren't they fighting a civil war then? - but the lack of US troops on the western front might make a difference. I don't think the two double-strength divisions at Marne II were a big game-changer (the germans had all but shot their bolt by then) but the morale effect, if nothing else, of having the US come in might lead to more caution in the Hundred Days. OTOH the Germans are royally screwed the moment Michael V (or whatever) runs out of gas, and Ludendorff knows it. Hmm... I'm not sure whether this would lead to a 1919 season or not.

[Pearlshire19]

WI Austria-Hungary moves more troops on the Western Front? The Germans also have U Boats, which could distract the Royal Navy from troops going across the Atlantic. The Germans could have attempted to pull the Russians back in on the war, but only on Germany's side. They could also get assistance from China and possibly Japan before they could join the Allies to attack the US. They could start in the Philippines, and American forces could deploy troops there, not knowing that the Mexicans and Germans were planning an invasion. That would make it possible. Also, to pull Allied troops off the Western Front, the Germans can stir up rebellions in Allied colonies and then they could definitely afford an attack on the United States that would be possibly a CP victory. They could get the Ottomans to start offensives in Egypt, which would occupy the British and French, and there will not be any Allied forces up at the Ottomans, allowing them to be able to attack the British and French at Egypt and start a campaign in Africa. FYI I am not supporting the CP, I am supporting the Allies and their cause more than the CP. I am just putting down possibilities of what could happen to make an attack on the US

[Typo]

None of the things you said is remotely plausible, unfortunately

As much as an invasion of the US is a favorite of alternative history, they are mostly about as plausible as HG Well's war of the worlds, and is the result of the same sort of paranoia.

[Zyzzyva]

Originally Posted by Typo

None of the things you said is remotely plausible, unfortunately

As much as an invasion of the US is a favorite of alternative history, they are mostly about as plausible as HG Well's war of the worlds, and is the result of the same sort of paranoia.

Meh, 1812 is always fun.

Brock Forever!

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by Pearlshire19

WI Austria-Hungary moves more troops on the Western Front? The Germans also have U Boats, which could distract the Royal Navy from troops going across the Atlantic. The Germans could have attempted to pull the Russians back in on the war, but only on Germany's side. They could also get assistance from China and possibly Japan before they could join the Allies to attack the US. They could start in the Philippines, and American forces could deploy troops there, not knowing that the Mexicans and Germans were planning an invasion. That would make it possible. Also, to pull Allied troops off the Western Front, the Germans can stir up rebellions in Allied colonies and then they could definitely afford an attack on the United States that would be possibly a CP victory. They could get the Ottomans to start offensives in Egypt, which would occupy the British and French, and there will not be any Allied forces up at the Ottomans, allowing them to be able to attack the British and French at Egypt and start a campaign in Africa. FYI I am not supporting the CP, I am supporting the Allies and their cause more than the CP. I am just putting down possibilities of what could happen to make an attack on the US

Good Heavens not one bit of that makes sense!

[Typo]

Oh I meant post 1900 US, maybe Post civil war US

[Mr J]

Originally Posted by Pearlshire19

WI Austria-Hungary moves more troops on the Western Front? The Germans also have U Boats, which could distract the Royal Navy from troops going across the Atlantic. The Germans could have attempted to pull the Russians back in on the war, but only on Germany's side. They could also get assistance from China and possibly Japan before they could join the Allies to attack the US. They could start in the Philippines, and American forces could deploy troops there, not knowing that the Mexicans and Germans were planning an invasion. That would make it possible. Also, to pull Allied troops off the Western Front, the Germans can stir up rebellions in Allied colonies and then they could definitely afford an attack on the United States that would be possibly a CP victory. They could get the Ottomans to start offensives in Egypt, which would occupy the British and French, and there will not be any Allied forces up at the Ottomans, allowing them to be able to attack the British and French at Egypt and start a campaign in Africa. FYI I am not supporting the CP, I am supporting the Allies and their cause more than the CP. I am just putting down possibilities of what could happen to make an attack on the US

No, just.... no

[Blue Max]

Originally Posted by boredatwork

Depends on whether or not the Americans realize that the Zimmerman note existed in the first place.

For Mexico - the prognosis is poor. The patient is likely to experience sudden loss upper portions of the body due to aggressive response by foreign antibodies to attempted absorption.

Given the patient's traumatic state (internal disorder and strife as noted in low stability count), the patients long-term viability without ongoing external support from the now dominant upper sybiote us unlikely.

(sorry wife has become big House fan of late).

Mexico loses northern tier, doughboys that would've gone to France (and some supplies) head south instead.

Likely that the US would have a long term presence in at least portions of the remaining mexican state(s).

Assuming that this happened early in WW1, the US could easily be sufficiently distracted as to largely ignore the war (assuming, of course, that the rationale for the attack never comes out).

Given the balance of forces in the WH, I would have to guess that the CPs would deny all knowledge of any supposed alliance, and accuse their Ciudad de Mexico counterparts of delusions of grandeur.

Not entirely sure about the impact in Europe, perhaps the Germans do slightly better than in OTL (no doughboys, somewhat less supply to the Entente). Then again, any supplies/ammo etc provided to Mexico would have to come from supplies otherwise destined for fronts in Europe - so if the CP provided Mexico with enough aid for a non-lunatic to start the fight in the WH, they would be shooting themselves in the foot with regards to fighting closer to home (this of course presumes that the supplies are moved out before hostilities start and the RN starts shutting down CP ports).

This could have worked--the USA could very easily get sucked into a war with Mexico and too distracted to join in the Great War. That said, the resultant "Northectomy" is pretty obvious. Mexico clearly loses, but it would be hard to know how quickly, and that might be the critical point.

Best case scenario would probably be the US getting stuck in Mexico for three or four years, probably because the Mexican Government collapses and the USA has to create a government to transfer power to in whatever part of the country it doesn't want to outright annex.

Now, the really interesting question is whether Germany can KO France (and Italy, they'd be next) and bring the war in Europe to an end before the USA joins in the fighting. Thats a hard one to call--I think Germany would barely be able to pull it off. Once France is out of the running, Italy would be quick to follow with the forces stacked against them. Then the UK would probably be amenable to a peace deal on the basis of returning Germany's colonies.

[Dean_the_Young]

Er...

Has no one asked why Mexico would suddenly have a change of heart? Already in a civil war, obviously no hope for reinforcement and support, a strong historical reason for not going to war against its northern neighbor, and for what? More land that it wouldn't be able to exert control over, even if it did win?

Zimmerman is a fun POD. Even I've done it. But it's also a very, very stupid POD. The Mexican government has little ability to go to war with the US in the first place, and even less reason to.

[boredatwork]

Short of mass insanity, &/or vast bribes, I can't see it happening.
But the OP asked what the result would be if it did happen, not whether or not the POD itself was at all likely.

On a scale of probability, I would rank it right up there with Irish attempts to conquer Britain, Spanish attempts to annex Moscow, just above Australian attempts to conquer and colonize China, and just below Turkish (re)annexation of the caucasus, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Kuwait, and Arabia.

[fhaessig]

Originally Posted by Blue Max

Now, the really interesting question is whether Germany can KO France (and Italy, they'd be next) and bring the war in Europe to an end before the USA joins in the fighting.

SHort answer NO.

Long answer, not only no but hell no.

The US troops are still coming, even if they will take a little longer, so morale effect is still there ( and likely more propaganda emphasis on colonial troopd coming ). OTOH, the french equipment and ammo which went to US troops that never saw combat OTL is now going to fighting troops, so that is likely to help the french hold the germans much better than OTL. Stroptruppen tactics still don't allow for exploitation of success by germans, while allied tanks attack do, so no chnge there.

The only difference is that German GHQ may not surrender by end 1918 if they think the yankees are not coming immediately ( max delay 6 month, IMO ), so the fighting may continue in 1919. If that's the case, the entente offensives, spearheaded by litterally 1000s of tanks for each attack, drive deep into Germany before the peace. No stab in the back myth. No Nazi raise to power. No WWII.

[superkuf]

The only difference is that German GHQ may not surrender by end 1918 if they think the yankees are not coming immediately ( max delay 6 month, IMO ), so the fighting may continue in 1919. If that's the case, the entente offensives, spearheaded by litterally 1000s of tanks for each attack, drive deep into Germany before the peace. No stab in the back myth. No Nazi raise to power. No WWII.[/quote]

Maybe, but Germany was already on the brink of starvation. A fifth war winter would mean real, widespread starvation - added to an already high degree of discontent. If the military leadership would keep on fighting the war I guess the soldiers would start to desert in large numbers, the civilians go on strike and the non-military government overthrew the military.