WI the Manchu had invaded Beijing in 1629?

[Gonzaga]

Ok, it's from Wikipedia, but I couldn't find a better source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Ch...reer_and_death

"In 1628, under a new government, Yuan Chonghuan was reinstated as field marshal of all the forces of the northeast. He embarked on an ambitious five year plan for the complete recovery of Liaodong. In 1629 he was granted the title of Senior Guardian of the Heir Apparent. The Chongzhen Emperor, the new emperor gave him his Imperial Sword and stated that he would fully support Yuan's decisions.
This time Yuan had to face again a larger Manchurian force (slightly above 200,000) under Huang Taiji. This time the Manchurians had incorporated many more men including the newly surrendered Mongols, rebel Ming army and the conquered Korea and various small states of the North. However, the Manchus were not confident to attack Jinzhou or Ningyuan again.
The Manchus changed their strategy. They bypassed Jinzhou, Ningyuan and Shanhai Pass. They broke through the Great Hall west of Shanhai Pass and suddenly appeared north of Beijing in the winter of 1629. Yuan rushed back with an elite army from Ningyuan to defend the capital. He reached Beijing only one or two days before the Manchus arrived at Beijing. Outside the city wall of Beijing, he defeated the Manchurian "Eight Banners" (八旗) which numbered one hundred thousand."

So, WI he had arrived later, or had died before reach the city, and the Manchu had been able to invade the city? Would it be the end of the Ming dynasty 15 years earlier? And what kind of consequences could it bring?

[Gonzaga]

Bump!
No one will try this one?

[Admiral Brown]

Originally Posted by Gonzaga

Bump!
No one will try this one?

I'd like to, but I wouldn't know what to say. I don't no much about chinese history to be able to name any consequences of an earlier endo of the Ming dinasty.

The only effect I could see is that Formosa Island (Taiwan) might remain in Dutch hands, as it was conquered in 1662 by Koxinga, who was loyalist to the Ming dinasty. Koxinga had been fighting the Qing since he was young ("Legends" -I mean, wikipedia - say the Manchu had raped his other, and that's why he was why he hated the Manchu so much). After failing in resisting the Manchu in Southern China, he went to Taiwan.

IITL, Koxinga will be 5 years old when the Ming fall, and he will probably live a totaly different life. The Manchu might continue the Ming's policy of retreating inland; the will probably remain interesting in Formosa, as nobodu will be interested in conquering them. Formosa might remain a Dutch colony who knows for how long...

[Bmao]

If the Ming Dynasty is ended 15 years earlier, it wouldn't make too much of a difference in the grand scheme of things. There would be a series of rebellions for the next 20 years as there were OTL, with various Ming factions traveling to isolated strongholds on the fringes.

The Qing would embark on further expansion to extend to present day China, but they would not engage in substantial amounts of foreign trade, like in OTL.

Here's a good POD, what if the Manchu's in the 1590's, back then the Jurchen, when the Ming and the Koreans were fighting a war against a newly united Japan under Hideyoshi, had decided to form an alliance with Japan and then try their luck to establish a new dynasty?

[Faeelin]

Actually, this is before the morass of the 1630s, when an economic crisis, peasant rebellions (themselves linked) and the Qing all combined to shatter the Ming state. Here, the Ming can probably hold in the South; and let the Qing deal with the troubles of ruling Northern China...

[Gonzaga]

Originally Posted by Admiral Brown

The only effect I could see is that Formosa Island (Taiwan) might remain in Dutch hands, as it was conquered in 1662 by Koxinga, who was loyalist to the Ming dinasty. Koxinga had been fighting the Qing since he was young ("Legends" -I mean, wikipedia - say the Manchu had raped his other, and that's why he was why he hated the Manchu so much). After failing in resisting the Manchu in Southern China, he went to Taiwan.

IITL, Koxinga will be 5 years old when the Ming fall, and he will probably live a totaly different life. The Manchu might continue the Ming's policy of retreating inland; the will probably remain interesting in Formosa, as nobodu will be interested in conquering them. Formosa might remain a Dutch colony who knows for how long...

A longer Dutch Formosa would be interesting. Could they use the island to attack the Spanish Philippines?

Originally Posted by Bmao

If the Ming Dynasty is ended 15 years earlier, it wouldn't make too much of a difference in the grand scheme of things. There would be a series of rebellions for the next 20 years as there were OTL, with various Ming factions traveling to isolated strongholds on the fringes.

The Qing would embark on further expansion to extend to present day China, but they would not engage in substantial amounts of foreign trade, like in OTL.

But would the Manchu really take over China in 1629? Did they already want or and the strenght enough to conquer the whole country at that time, or they wanted just to give the Ming a blood nose, like occupying Beijing and then requesting more lands? And if they manage to capture the city, could not this have created conditions to a Ming reaction, maybe under some more competent general?

Originally Posted by Faeelin

Actually, this is before the morass of the 1630s, when an economic crisis, peasant rebellions (themselves linked) and the Qing all combined to shatter the Ming state. Here, the Ming can probably hold in the South; and let the Qing deal with the troubles of ruling Northern China...

That's a good thought! A divided China, with a stable Ming dynasty in the South, maybe trying later a "Reconquista" against the North.