America Invades Jaoan in 1946

[Sissco]

How would the end of WW2 have panned out if Harry Truman had decided to use about 3 million American Troops and invade Japan to win ww2? would America have won the war that way before the end of 1946? Would Russia have smashed it's way through China and invade northern Japan by sea? Would their be a split of Japan like Germany was by the end of WW2? Would There be a communist north Japan and Capitalist South Japan? Would the whole of Korea be communist as a result of An American Invasion of Japan in 1946? No korean war then? NO Japanese technogoly boom in the 70's and 80's?

Hmmmmm........I wonder....

Sissco

[Nicole]

Hm- the big question is whether Japan surrenders. While it's generally seen as a common claim that Japan would never ever ever surrender and so would have to be pounded into dust if an invasion would take place, on the other hand they did surrender OTL.

There was a belief held by some high-up in the Japanese hierarchy that a foreign invasion of Japan would be literally impossible- holy winds would blow away any ships, like it did to the Mongols. I'm not sure how prevalent this view really was, or if it is exaggerated. However, in any case, it would be totally discredited once US troops start landing... My prediction is that you have one or two very bloody battles and then the total surrender of Japan very soon after.

Now, what the Soviet Union does becomes most interesting- do they join the US and attack from the north? If so, they're going to demand an occupation zone of at least Hokkaido, and probably get it. On the other hand, they could instead continue their invasion of Manchuria and take all of Korea under their occupation, which would almost certainly mean no South Korea. Or maybe they do both... anyone have any idea of Soviet warplans here?

[Sissco]

I've no idea of Soviet War plans at all, bit I've always wondered how the world map would look had the soviet union and America split Japan between them and the Soviet Union take Korea!!!! I also wonder would the soviet Union have kicked the Japanese out of China? And would any Chinese troops join the Russians in an Invasion of Japan?

sissco

[CalBear]

I assume this is because the Bomb failed?

By the time an invasion slot would have been open in the Spring of 1946, it is very likely that the Japanese would have surrendered. The Soviets would, by then, have almost certainly landed on Hokkaido; the USAAF would have burned every town with a population of more that 25,000 to the ground and would be hitting the Home Islands with 500 plane raids every day with more raids on Kyushu by medium bombers based on Okinawa; most critically the population would have been suffering 2%-3% death rates from starvation, with the numbers increasing in advance of spring planting season.

The Japanese would not have made it out of 1946 as a functional state, not with the hammering from the air, from the sea, and the blockade of both. The U.S. was positioned to starve the Yamato people out of existance & would not have flinched from doing so.

[Kevin in Indy]

Assuming that the Allies do not kick off Olympic until 1946, it is going to be the most Godawful brutal campaign in history - will make Hitler vs. Stalin look like a flyweight preliminary bout. Japan will get several months worth of unremitting air and naval attacks. With no on-the-ground intelligence and no "resistance movement," the troops will come ashore assuming that everything living and not Caucasian needs to be killed immediately. They will be under a lot of pressure to grab all the territory they can, because Uncle Joe is doing just that in China / Korea / the northern islands.

Scary stuff...

[Astrodragon]

Just where is Russia getting the ships to land on Japan with???
They wernt exactly the worlds greatest exponents of amphibious landings in WW2...

[LordIreland]

Actually, the Russians engaged in numerous amphibious landings throughout the period 41 - 43 in western russia with great success. German troops referred to these seaborne troops as the Black Death due to their effectiveness. Curiosuly though the Russians regarded Marine troops as a symbol of western imperialism (due to the extensive use of Marines by Great Britain, the greatest of the colonial powers) and were reluctant to maintain a permanent Marine style force much before the 60s.

Re getting them to Japan proper, well they successfully invaded Sakhalin Island in 45, whilst primarily a land based campaign, the 113th Rifle brigade and the 365th Independent Naval Infantry Rifle Battalion were amphibiously landed at Toro.

By August 1945, the Soviet Pacific Fleet had 2 cruisers, 1 flagship, 10 destroyers, 2 torpedo boats, 19 patrol boats, 78 submarines, 10 minelayers, 52 minesweepers, 49 “MO” boats (MO stands for Малый Охотник, or “little hunter”), 204 motor torpedo boats, 1459 aircraft.

Not vast by western standards, but enough to make amphibious landings an option, especially if the remaining japanese forces were already tangling with a large US landing in the south.

[Michele]

Originally Posted by LordIreland

Actually, the Russians engaged in numerous amphibious landings throughout the period 41 - 43 in western russia with great success. German troops referred to these seaborne troops as the Black Death due to their effectiveness. Curiosuly though the Russians regarded Marine troops as a symbol of western imperialism (due to the extensive use of Marines by Great Britain, the greatest of the colonial powers) and were reluctant to maintain a permanent Marine style force much before the 60s.

Re getting them to Japan proper, well they successfully invaded Sakhalin Island in 45, whilst primarily a land based campaign, the 113th Rifle brigade and the 365th Independent Naval Infantry Rifle Battalion were amphibiously landed at Toro.

(...)

Not vast by western standards, but enough to make amphibious landings an option, especially if the remaining japanese forces were already tangling with a large US landing in the south.

Just to say I agree with the above.

[SunilTanna]

You may find my site on this topic of interest - http://www.operationolympic.com/

The casualty estimates at the time varied wildly.

If you read books on this topic. There are basically two views

(a) Blood bath

- Of Japanese military and civilains because the Japanese had mobilized the entire civilian population, and were about to be hit by heavy bombers, swarms of Americanized V1s, probably gas, possibly bio warfare, and perhaps nukes in support of landing forces. And would probably starve too

- And of Allied invasion forces, because they underestimated the Japanese defensive strength, didn't realize the Japanese had 10,000 kamikaze aircraft, etc. And would probably be rushed because the Soviets were planning to land in Northern Japan in September-ish

Many books that support of this view, namely that the Japanese were going to fight on, bloodily, claim that relatively recently declassified decrypts support their view.

Example of this view - Codename Downfall

OR

(b) The Japanese were about to surrender anyway, their forces were about to collapse, etc., and invasion might have been better than atomic bombing

Example of this view - The Invasion of Japan: An Alternative to the Bomb

[Michele]

Originally Posted by SunilTanna

invasion might have been better than atomic bombing

Heh. Better for whom, would be the question. Even if we assume extremely light resistance to an invasion, that's still more casualties among Allied servicemen than those incurred with the bomb.

[CalBear]

Originally Posted by Michele

Heh. Better for whom, would be the question. Even if we assume extremely light resistance to an invasion, that's still more casualties among Allied servicemen than those incurred with the bomb.

Not to mention the Japanese civilian population.

No nukes doesn't mean the end of the firebombings (something that sometimes is forgotten). The B-29 force was going to be augmented by 8th Air Force in mid/late September. The USSBS foresaw a large firebombing raid a day by the middle of October, some with newly formed B-29 Groups and some with B-17 & 24 Groups flying out of Okinawa.

You would also have had increasing starvation from the blockade (which had graduated to the strafing of small fishing boats by fighters off the carriers and out of Okinawa) and destruction of the Japanese transportation network.

As strange as it sounds, the A-Bombings actually saved more Japanese civilians and American soldiers from an early death.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by LordIreland

Actually, the Russians engaged in numerous amphibious landings throughout the period 41 - 43 in western russia with great success. German troops referred to these seaborne troops as the Black Death due to their effectiveness. Curiosuly though the Russians regarded Marine troops as a symbol of western imperialism (due to the extensive use of Marines by Great Britain, the greatest of the colonial powers) and were reluctant to maintain a permanent Marine style force much before the 60s.

Re getting them to Japan proper, well they successfully invaded Sakhalin Island in 45, whilst primarily a land based campaign, the 113th Rifle brigade and the 365th Independent Naval Infantry Rifle Battalion were amphibiously landed at Toro.

By August 1945, the Soviet Pacific Fleet had 2 cruisers, 1 flagship, 10 destroyers, 2 torpedo boats, 19 patrol boats, 78 submarines, 10 minelayers, 52 minesweepers, 49 “MO” boats (MO stands for Малый Охотник, or “little hunter”), 204 motor torpedo boats, 1459 aircraft.

Not vast by western standards, but enough to make amphibious landings an option, especially if the remaining japanese forces were already tangling with a large US landing in the south.

Glorified river crossings do not make for a Sealion...

Considering what a problem a landing using all the US resources (and some of the British) ones would have been, an invasion of a couple of brigades by the SU would have been a fleabite in comparison.

[CalBear]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Glorified river crossings do not make for a Sealion...

Considering what a problem a landing using all the US resources (and some of the British) ones would have been, an invasion of a couple of brigades by the SU would have been a fleabite in comparison.

Hokkaido was also nearly undefened by late summer of 1945. Virtually no aircraft, kamakazi or otherwise, very few troops & most of them reservist/combat rejects.

The Japanese had been very successful in figuring out where the Allies were planning to land on Kyushu and had moved most of their front line ground forces that had made it back to the Home Islands into place to oppose landings there. The same is true for the kamakazi force. From the Japanese perspective they were committed to Kyushu, they lacked the fuel and ground transport to change their dispositions (one reason that there was a growing movement in U.S. command circles starting in July 1945 to bypass Kyushu completely).

Soviet losses in any attack on Hokkaido would have been huge, especially given their lack of proper landing ships and a combined arms amphibious doctrine (somewhat the same as the U.S. experienced during the early Pacific landings, but much worse due to weather conditions). Losses, however, never did make Stalin or the Red Army blink and would not have in this case.

[burmafrd]

What it comes down to as regards how hard the Japanese would have fought really depends on what Hirohito did. He wanted peace and got it after the bombs were dropped OTL. No bombs but gradual destruction and starvation might do the same but how long does that take? Also there is the fact that slowly increasing the temperature of the water you can fry a frog and he does nothing since it is so slowly done= where as if you drop him in boiling water he will try and jump out. The great shock of the two bombs vs the slow death by firebombs and starvation.
If Hirohito had somehow been convinced to broadcast to the nation to fight on the japanese people would have done just that. And the carnage on both sides would have been horrendous.

[Vault-Scope]

Massive losses as the USA attempts to invade mainland Japan, city after city is destroyed.
All of Korea is seized by the red army, then red army advance in China and later invades Hokkaido.
Mainland japan is completely devastated, population reduced by 3/4 in the fighting, tens of millions of casualties and remains occupied for decades.
Mao is emboldened and have larger forces available, his war against the nationalists starts earlier and he wins far more quickly.
The USA helps the French/British/Dutch maintain their colonial control of Indochina, by force if necessary, join occupation & many years of guerilla warfare.
Would Mao & Stalin reach Indochina first, would Britain accept Indian independence, especially if USA promises full support in repressing Hindu nationalists? Bigger and earlier Vietnam war?

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

Originally Posted by burmafrd

What it comes down to as regards how hard the Japanese would have fought really depends on what Hirohito did. He wanted peace and got it after the bombs were dropped OTL. No bombs but gradual destruction and starvation might do the same but how long does that take? Also there is the fact that slowly increasing the temperature of the water you can fry a frog and he does nothing since it is so slowly done= where as if you drop him in boiling water he will try and jump out. The great shock of the two bombs vs the slow death by firebombs and starvation.
If Hirohito had somehow been convinced to broadcast to the nation to fight on the japanese people would have done just that. And the carnage on both sides would have been horrendous.

I Usually don't Comment on Things like this, But that FABLE about The Frog is Just Plain Un-True ....

As Snopes, The Urban Legends Reference Pages has to Say about it:

Originally Posted by Dr. Victor Hutchison

The legend is entirely incorrect! The 'critical thermal maxima' of many species of frogs have been determined by several investigators. In this procedure, the water in which a frog is submerged is heated gradually at about 2 degrees Fahrenheit per minute. As the temperature of the water is gradually increased, the frog will eventually become more and more active in attempts to escape the heated water. If the container size and opening allow the frog to jump out, it will do so.

[Sissco]

Were got to, people, to create my own world maps as some of you manage to do here?


Just asking, please give me a web page I can access

sissco

[burmafrd]

So that was urban legend? interesting. Still I think the analogy is correct in that a gradual happening can be rationalized away while sudden jolts cannot.