I recently began to develop a timeline of my own and modified it with the feedback from various commentators. Yet, what I present below is still a draft and covering only first two years. I hope the comments, productive criticism and brainstorming on this board will help me create a final version of the timeline.
Timeline W
OTL Background: 1st Silesian Uprising
OTL Background: Sejny Uprising
POD: 1 September 1919: Pro-Polish Coup in Lithuania by general Silvestras Žukauskas in collaboration with Walery Sławek. New government partially based on Polish minority MPs is established. Soon after Lithuania accepts Foch demarcation line and allies with Poland against Soviet Russia. Poland thus gains secure border with Lithuania, access to volunteers from Lithuania, limited supplies and war materials and some regular units will join Polish army.
OTL Background: Piłsudski’s Proclamation to the Inhabitants of the Former Grand Duchy of Lithuania. (Obviously ITTL Piłsudski’s Międzymorze concept and federative plans gain more traction than OTL. Still it is doubtful that even a pro-Polish Lithuania will wish to become part of a single federal state. Being a satellite state seems more probable.)
ATL Background: Alytus Volunteer Cavalry Regiment (Ochotniczy Olicki Pułk Kawalerii)
Question: How many regular units and which ones?
Question: Any organized political opposition in Lithuania?
January 1920: (December 1919?) Polish Army takes Dyneburg. (In OTL it was handed over to the Latvians, while ITTL Poland considers it’s position in the region strong enough to keep this region with Polish plurality. This will eventually lead to worse relations with Latvia.)
OTL Background: Red Army codes broken.
OTL Background: No military operations during spring in the Borderlands (flooding, mud ect.)
April 1920: Kiev operation starts. (Similar to OTL)
OTL Background: Unfavorable French reaction (If Piłsudski wanted to attack Ukraine he should have done done the year before with Denikin.)
OTL Background: Stated aim is to liberate Ukraine and create Polish-lead Federation. ITTL that’s more probable due pro-Polish stance of Lithuania.
Possible Divergence: Due to butterflies Soviet leaders put more priority on this front. 12th and 14th army are better prepared and engage Polish forces, instead of retreating as OTL. Yet they are unable to repel Polish attacks and are broken. Adopting this divergence would mean achieving Kiev Offensive military objective and in consequence lead to creating and Ukrainian state. However it seems like to much good luck for Poland.
May 1920: Kiev taken. Poland did not gain much more land than OTL, since doing so would require crossing vast tracts of basically empty land and significantly larger and better prepared army.
OTL Background: Ambivalent Ukrainian reaction.
May 1920: Budionny’s 1st Cavarly Army arrives attempt to push Polish-Ukrainian Forces from Kiev. Poles defend themselves slightly better than OTL, but are eventually (late June in comparison to early-mid June OTL) forced to withdraw from Kiev. Soviets redirect additional units to this front. Budionny threatens Lwow.
Question: Can Soviets muster more forces? Which ones? How does that affect other fronts of Russian Civil War, for example Wrangel forces in Crimea?
July 1920: Tukhachevski starts his offensive on the northern front. (Polish army, due to not having to deal with hostile Lithuania was able to take better defensive positions during the previous year.)
Question: Or does he, seeing that the strategic situation is different than OTL?
ATL background: Tukhachevski has a dilemma. Does he attempt to strike a decisive blow to Poland and commit all his forces to capture Warsaw or does he divert some of his troops to take out Lithuania? He chooses the second option.
ATL background: Red Army promises Wilno to Lithuania. Some Lithuanian nationalist (who exactly?) form an unlikely alliance with the Soviets to topple the Pro-Polish Government. This move will later discredit current Lithuanians nationalist leaders (who exactly?) in the eyes of some Lithuanians. (In OTL Soviets gave Wilno to Lithuania, but under different circumstances.)
11 July 1920: East Prussia plebiscite. 11% votes for Poland (Warsaw is not directly threatened, but Red Army is still advancing). By the decision of the Entente Sztum, Nidzica and Ełk are added to Poland.
ATL Background: Ełk-Olsztyn [Lyck-Allenstein] controversy. There were more votes for Poland in Olsztyn, than in Ełk. Yet it was impossible for Olsztyn to join Poland since it was surrounded by territories that voted to stay in Germany. After much political haggling Entente decided to reinterpret the plebiscites results and add Ełk to Poland instead.
Question: Is 11% a plausible result?
July 1920: Executive act (is that a proper term?) for the Land (Agrarian) Reform passed in Sejm.
August 1920: Tukhachevski offensive losses momentum after only reaching Białystok in Poland and Kaunas in Lithuania. With a daring Polish counterattack the tide turns and Red army begins to retreat. (In OTL this was the time when Warsaw battle was fought.)
ATL Background: In this ATL historiography it is generally accepted that Polish independence was not in danger and Polish-Soviet War is analyzed more from the point of view of Piłsudki’s fighting to create his Międzymorze federation.
ATL Background: Remnant pro-Polish Lithuania resisting the Soviets from the town of Szawle [Šiauliai]
Question: Effects on Polish politics? This is after the March constitution was declared so Piłsudski still can’t hope to be influential president. Maybe he will attempt to make himself Leader of Międzymorze, a new position separate from President of Poland.
August 1920: Czechoslovakia agrees to hold a plebiscite over a disputed region of Cieszyn Silesia. (OTL Edvard Beneš due to weaker Polish position during the Polish-Soviet War was able to persuade the Entente to impose a decision favorable to Czechoslovakia)
19 August 1920: Nothing of note. (OTL Second Silesian Uprising started, but as there is no false announcement of Warsaw fall is printed, no German celebration degenerating into violence, and no escalation and armed Polish response)
Question: Should alternate uprising be added somewhere in summer or fall of 1920?
November 1920: By this time Polish-Offensive on both northern and southern front reaches Belarus (ATL battle of Minsk) and Ukraine, while Soviet commanders desperately try to rally demoralized and retreating Red Army units.
ATL Background: Polish army is in fact slightly weaker than OTL, due to the lack of volunteer influx before OTL Warsaw battle. Yet, with some luck, it should still be enough to beat the Red Army. But not enough to continue the offensive south into Ukraine.
ATL Background: Polish vs. pro-Polish Lithuanian army race to liberate Wilno.
ATL Background: Problems with Polish troops not wanting to leave Lithuanian territory retaken from the Red Army.
January 1921: Treaty of Kaunas (OTL Treaty of Riga). In south Poland gets it’s OTL border, while in the north a Belarus state is created. Initially Piłsudski wanted to pressure Polish Sejm and Lithuanian leadership into giving Wilno and Mińsk to Lithuania and creating Lithuanian Federation (three part Lithuanian-Polish-Belarus state federated with Republic of Poland). It has proven infeasible since Polish politics would not give Wilno region to Lithuania, while Lithuanians realized that the proposed territorial gains would mean creating a state where Lithuanians themselves would be a minority (and still remain a Polish satellite).
Question: What should the exact Belarus borders be?
ATL Background: Belarusian state would face multiple problems. Underdeveloped territory with little population. No tradition of being an independent state and no capable political elite. Industry being almost non-existent and proximity to the Soviet Union (expect serious propaganda and border incursions continuing for years)
February 1921: Vilnius Pact. After much political haggling Piłsudski announces the creation of Vilnius Pact (without Ukraine it can’t be called “Międzymorze”), an alliance (not a federation, as there would be to much resistance in both Poland and Lithuania) of nations that once were the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Mutual defense treaties, coupled with military cooperation and trade agreement. Naturally Poland is the dominant partner,
Important Question: International reaction to this?
Important Question: Is it possible to get this past Polish Sejm?
ATL Background: Piłsudski is regarded more as conqueror and state builder, than savior of Poland. In fact his position is weaker than OTL and he will burn a lot of his political capital by trying to build Międzymorze. As OTL Piłsudski will remain bitter due to the fact, he failed to create an Ukrainian state.
ATL Background: Joint Polish Sejm and Lithuanian Seimas session with delegates from Belarus also attending.
Possible Divergence: Lithuanian Federation might have been created after all.
March 1921: March Constitution.
OTL Background: The legal frameworks for Polish state. Formed as a compromise between contesting faction. From political point of view two issues were: 1. Whether Senat (upper house of parliament) should exist and 2. How influential should the president be and who will elect him? Ultimately it was decided that Senat would be formed and presidential powers would be very limited, both results favorable for Endecja.
Question: It’s now almost two years from the POD and considering the rapidly shifting situation in Polish politics of that period there could certainly be some serious butterflies. How do you think March Constitution could be affected?
March 1921: Upper Silesian Plebiscite. 43% votes for Poland (due to less German action and Polish success in Polish-Soviet War, yet extra 3% votes are not enough for to win the plebiscite). As in OTL this is fallowed by Second (OTL Third) Silesian uprising. Ultimately in addition to OTL territory Poland gets Gliwice and Oleśno.
June 1921: Cieszyn Silesian Plebiscite is conducted. 78% votes for Poland. Along with most disputed territory Poland gains rich coal deposits, Trzyniec Iron Works, while Czechoslovakians lose a vital railroad connection. Other disputed areas Spisz and Orawa remain Czechoslovakian. Shortly thereafter Czechoslovakia negotiates a 10 year right of transit through the disputed railway.
ALT Background: Czechoslovakian relations with Poland would certainly be better than OTL. The question is, by how much?
Question: Effects on Czechoslovakian economy and politics?
December (?) 1922: First president election in Poland. Endecja candidate Count Maurycy Zamoyski.
ATL Background: There would be more opposition to Pilsudski than OTL, probably enough to tip the scales.
ATL Background: No Narutowicz assassination. That should have significant consequences? What exactly?
POSSIBLE LATER EVENTS:
+ Problems in Belarus, most probably severe enough to affect Poland. Possibly severe enough to escalate and involve Soviet Russia. Will Europe be ready for a Second Polish-Soviet War in 20s?
+ Lithuanians seeking to overthrow Polish domination. This could either be averted by some political compromise or alternatively lead to Polish military intervention or even civil war.
+ As OTL Piłsudski being disillusioned by parliamentary democracy and seeking means to rectify the situation. ITTL he has an interesting alternative to simple coup in Poland. He might want to build up his position as military leader of Wilno Pact and attempt to take over all three countries and finally unite them into a full-fledged federation.
+ I’m also musing about Piłsudski being assassinated before he could attempt to take power in Poland. Maybe in 1925, during a military parade in Minsk he was shot by a soldier performing a gun salute. This would drive both Poland and Lithuania, and by extension Belarus into chaos.
+ Endecja Coup is also a possibility, maybe as a result of one of the events described above. As Endecja does not have much army support, but a strong base in Wielkopolska this could become bloodier than OTL May Coup. Yet Endecja would probably ultimately fail. This opens up new possibilities. With Piłsudski dead and Endecja reputation is in ruins a new force would become dominant. Possibly the left under Daszyński.
+ Or maybe political situation never spins out of control and Poland remains a parliamentary republic?
+ Given proper conditions Wilno Pact can expand to cover the rest of Baltic states and Finland, thus create a barrier against Soviet expansion.
+ Consider the butterflies on Soviet Union. Less resources available due to losing Belarus. Possibly Stalin replaced by a different Soviet leader, maybe Bukharin?
+ Consider the influence on international politics. With luck we could have cabinet changes as soon as 1920 in France and UK.
+ (Insert your idea here)
+ (Post your comments below)
Timeline W
OTL Background: 1st Silesian Uprising
OTL Background: Sejny Uprising
POD: 1 September 1919: Pro-Polish Coup in Lithuania by general Silvestras Žukauskas in collaboration with Walery Sławek. New government partially based on Polish minority MPs is established. Soon after Lithuania accepts Foch demarcation line and allies with Poland against Soviet Russia. Poland thus gains secure border with Lithuania, access to volunteers from Lithuania, limited supplies and war materials and some regular units will join Polish army.
OTL Background: Piłsudski’s Proclamation to the Inhabitants of the Former Grand Duchy of Lithuania. (Obviously ITTL Piłsudski’s Międzymorze concept and federative plans gain more traction than OTL. Still it is doubtful that even a pro-Polish Lithuania will wish to become part of a single federal state. Being a satellite state seems more probable.)
ATL Background: Alytus Volunteer Cavalry Regiment (Ochotniczy Olicki Pułk Kawalerii)
Question: How many regular units and which ones?
Question: Any organized political opposition in Lithuania?
January 1920: (December 1919?) Polish Army takes Dyneburg. (In OTL it was handed over to the Latvians, while ITTL Poland considers it’s position in the region strong enough to keep this region with Polish plurality. This will eventually lead to worse relations with Latvia.)
OTL Background: Red Army codes broken.
OTL Background: No military operations during spring in the Borderlands (flooding, mud ect.)
April 1920: Kiev operation starts. (Similar to OTL)
OTL Background: Unfavorable French reaction (If Piłsudski wanted to attack Ukraine he should have done done the year before with Denikin.)
OTL Background: Stated aim is to liberate Ukraine and create Polish-lead Federation. ITTL that’s more probable due pro-Polish stance of Lithuania.
Possible Divergence: Due to butterflies Soviet leaders put more priority on this front. 12th and 14th army are better prepared and engage Polish forces, instead of retreating as OTL. Yet they are unable to repel Polish attacks and are broken. Adopting this divergence would mean achieving Kiev Offensive military objective and in consequence lead to creating and Ukrainian state. However it seems like to much good luck for Poland.
May 1920: Kiev taken. Poland did not gain much more land than OTL, since doing so would require crossing vast tracts of basically empty land and significantly larger and better prepared army.
OTL Background: Ambivalent Ukrainian reaction.
May 1920: Budionny’s 1st Cavarly Army arrives attempt to push Polish-Ukrainian Forces from Kiev. Poles defend themselves slightly better than OTL, but are eventually (late June in comparison to early-mid June OTL) forced to withdraw from Kiev. Soviets redirect additional units to this front. Budionny threatens Lwow.
Question: Can Soviets muster more forces? Which ones? How does that affect other fronts of Russian Civil War, for example Wrangel forces in Crimea?
July 1920: Tukhachevski starts his offensive on the northern front. (Polish army, due to not having to deal with hostile Lithuania was able to take better defensive positions during the previous year.)
Question: Or does he, seeing that the strategic situation is different than OTL?
ATL background: Tukhachevski has a dilemma. Does he attempt to strike a decisive blow to Poland and commit all his forces to capture Warsaw or does he divert some of his troops to take out Lithuania? He chooses the second option.
ATL background: Red Army promises Wilno to Lithuania. Some Lithuanian nationalist (who exactly?) form an unlikely alliance with the Soviets to topple the Pro-Polish Government. This move will later discredit current Lithuanians nationalist leaders (who exactly?) in the eyes of some Lithuanians. (In OTL Soviets gave Wilno to Lithuania, but under different circumstances.)
11 July 1920: East Prussia plebiscite. 11% votes for Poland (Warsaw is not directly threatened, but Red Army is still advancing). By the decision of the Entente Sztum, Nidzica and Ełk are added to Poland.
ATL Background: Ełk-Olsztyn [Lyck-Allenstein] controversy. There were more votes for Poland in Olsztyn, than in Ełk. Yet it was impossible for Olsztyn to join Poland since it was surrounded by territories that voted to stay in Germany. After much political haggling Entente decided to reinterpret the plebiscites results and add Ełk to Poland instead.
Question: Is 11% a plausible result?
July 1920: Executive act (is that a proper term?) for the Land (Agrarian) Reform passed in Sejm.
August 1920: Tukhachevski offensive losses momentum after only reaching Białystok in Poland and Kaunas in Lithuania. With a daring Polish counterattack the tide turns and Red army begins to retreat. (In OTL this was the time when Warsaw battle was fought.)
ATL Background: In this ATL historiography it is generally accepted that Polish independence was not in danger and Polish-Soviet War is analyzed more from the point of view of Piłsudki’s fighting to create his Międzymorze federation.
ATL Background: Remnant pro-Polish Lithuania resisting the Soviets from the town of Szawle [Šiauliai]
Question: Effects on Polish politics? This is after the March constitution was declared so Piłsudski still can’t hope to be influential president. Maybe he will attempt to make himself Leader of Międzymorze, a new position separate from President of Poland.
August 1920: Czechoslovakia agrees to hold a plebiscite over a disputed region of Cieszyn Silesia. (OTL Edvard Beneš due to weaker Polish position during the Polish-Soviet War was able to persuade the Entente to impose a decision favorable to Czechoslovakia)
19 August 1920: Nothing of note. (OTL Second Silesian Uprising started, but as there is no false announcement of Warsaw fall is printed, no German celebration degenerating into violence, and no escalation and armed Polish response)
Question: Should alternate uprising be added somewhere in summer or fall of 1920?
November 1920: By this time Polish-Offensive on both northern and southern front reaches Belarus (ATL battle of Minsk) and Ukraine, while Soviet commanders desperately try to rally demoralized and retreating Red Army units.
ATL Background: Polish army is in fact slightly weaker than OTL, due to the lack of volunteer influx before OTL Warsaw battle. Yet, with some luck, it should still be enough to beat the Red Army. But not enough to continue the offensive south into Ukraine.
ATL Background: Polish vs. pro-Polish Lithuanian army race to liberate Wilno.
ATL Background: Problems with Polish troops not wanting to leave Lithuanian territory retaken from the Red Army.
January 1921: Treaty of Kaunas (OTL Treaty of Riga). In south Poland gets it’s OTL border, while in the north a Belarus state is created. Initially Piłsudski wanted to pressure Polish Sejm and Lithuanian leadership into giving Wilno and Mińsk to Lithuania and creating Lithuanian Federation (three part Lithuanian-Polish-Belarus state federated with Republic of Poland). It has proven infeasible since Polish politics would not give Wilno region to Lithuania, while Lithuanians realized that the proposed territorial gains would mean creating a state where Lithuanians themselves would be a minority (and still remain a Polish satellite).
Question: What should the exact Belarus borders be?
ATL Background: Belarusian state would face multiple problems. Underdeveloped territory with little population. No tradition of being an independent state and no capable political elite. Industry being almost non-existent and proximity to the Soviet Union (expect serious propaganda and border incursions continuing for years)
February 1921: Vilnius Pact. After much political haggling Piłsudski announces the creation of Vilnius Pact (without Ukraine it can’t be called “Międzymorze”), an alliance (not a federation, as there would be to much resistance in both Poland and Lithuania) of nations that once were the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Mutual defense treaties, coupled with military cooperation and trade agreement. Naturally Poland is the dominant partner,
Important Question: International reaction to this?
Important Question: Is it possible to get this past Polish Sejm?
ATL Background: Piłsudski is regarded more as conqueror and state builder, than savior of Poland. In fact his position is weaker than OTL and he will burn a lot of his political capital by trying to build Międzymorze. As OTL Piłsudski will remain bitter due to the fact, he failed to create an Ukrainian state.
ATL Background: Joint Polish Sejm and Lithuanian Seimas session with delegates from Belarus also attending.
Possible Divergence: Lithuanian Federation might have been created after all.
March 1921: March Constitution.
OTL Background: The legal frameworks for Polish state. Formed as a compromise between contesting faction. From political point of view two issues were: 1. Whether Senat (upper house of parliament) should exist and 2. How influential should the president be and who will elect him? Ultimately it was decided that Senat would be formed and presidential powers would be very limited, both results favorable for Endecja.
Question: It’s now almost two years from the POD and considering the rapidly shifting situation in Polish politics of that period there could certainly be some serious butterflies. How do you think March Constitution could be affected?
March 1921: Upper Silesian Plebiscite. 43% votes for Poland (due to less German action and Polish success in Polish-Soviet War, yet extra 3% votes are not enough for to win the plebiscite). As in OTL this is fallowed by Second (OTL Third) Silesian uprising. Ultimately in addition to OTL territory Poland gets Gliwice and Oleśno.
June 1921: Cieszyn Silesian Plebiscite is conducted. 78% votes for Poland. Along with most disputed territory Poland gains rich coal deposits, Trzyniec Iron Works, while Czechoslovakians lose a vital railroad connection. Other disputed areas Spisz and Orawa remain Czechoslovakian. Shortly thereafter Czechoslovakia negotiates a 10 year right of transit through the disputed railway.
ALT Background: Czechoslovakian relations with Poland would certainly be better than OTL. The question is, by how much?
Question: Effects on Czechoslovakian economy and politics?
December (?) 1922: First president election in Poland. Endecja candidate Count Maurycy Zamoyski.
ATL Background: There would be more opposition to Pilsudski than OTL, probably enough to tip the scales.
ATL Background: No Narutowicz assassination. That should have significant consequences? What exactly?
POSSIBLE LATER EVENTS:
+ Problems in Belarus, most probably severe enough to affect Poland. Possibly severe enough to escalate and involve Soviet Russia. Will Europe be ready for a Second Polish-Soviet War in 20s?
+ Lithuanians seeking to overthrow Polish domination. This could either be averted by some political compromise or alternatively lead to Polish military intervention or even civil war.
+ As OTL Piłsudski being disillusioned by parliamentary democracy and seeking means to rectify the situation. ITTL he has an interesting alternative to simple coup in Poland. He might want to build up his position as military leader of Wilno Pact and attempt to take over all three countries and finally unite them into a full-fledged federation.
+ I’m also musing about Piłsudski being assassinated before he could attempt to take power in Poland. Maybe in 1925, during a military parade in Minsk he was shot by a soldier performing a gun salute. This would drive both Poland and Lithuania, and by extension Belarus into chaos.
+ Endecja Coup is also a possibility, maybe as a result of one of the events described above. As Endecja does not have much army support, but a strong base in Wielkopolska this could become bloodier than OTL May Coup. Yet Endecja would probably ultimately fail. This opens up new possibilities. With Piłsudski dead and Endecja reputation is in ruins a new force would become dominant. Possibly the left under Daszyński.
+ Or maybe political situation never spins out of control and Poland remains a parliamentary republic?
+ Given proper conditions Wilno Pact can expand to cover the rest of Baltic states and Finland, thus create a barrier against Soviet expansion.
+ Consider the butterflies on Soviet Union. Less resources available due to losing Belarus. Possibly Stalin replaced by a different Soviet leader, maybe Bukharin?
+ Consider the influence on international politics. With luck we could have cabinet changes as soon as 1920 in France and UK.
+ (Insert your idea here)
+ (Post your comments below)
