Sino-Japanese War Outcome Without Pearl Harbor

[Anaxagoras]

Suppose that there never was a Pacific War between the United States and Japan. What would have been the eventual result of the Sino-Japanese conflict? Could Japan have ever made a deal with either the Nationalists or the Communists, thus tipping the balance? Brainstorm please.

[OAM47]

I always imagine the the USSR gets involved somehow (either by the butterflys from what made Pearl not happen meaning that WWII is different all together, or more likely, Japan deciding to go for Russia instead)

[metalstar316]

Chinese victory would be my guess. The timetable, though, is open for discussion.

Japan was growing desperately short of raw materials, which is why they invaded Indo-China and Indonesia. Knowing that the US would not stand idly by and allow this to happen, they attacked Pearl Harbor in anticipation of a war which they thought would be inevitable after the IJA moved south.

And somehow I don't see either the Nationalists or the Communists being too eager to wager with a Japan that invaded them and conquered a third of their land and people.

I guess the way it would play out depends on the reason why there was no Pearl Harbor. But the outcome would probably be the same either way.

[CalBear]

The question is too broad to have a single solution. The end can range from a China dominated in the south over to French Indochina by the Japanese with the USSR dominating a wide swath of the country along the Soviet border to a defeated Japan, having been manhandled by the Red Army in 1946, to A still strong Japan with China broken into a number of smaller states, each state dominated by a neighbor or strong colonial presence to all of the above on a rotating basis.

The variable depends on the why of "No U.S./Japan war". There are a number of ways to avoid it (my current favorite is Japan backing off in French Indochina thereby keeping the U.S. from unsheathing the Trading with the Enemy Act. In that scenario, the Japanese decide to play for time, just a few months longer, mainly to see if Hitler is going to put the UK and the Soviets on the trailer. REALLY unlikely, but that is true of every "no war" scenario. The Pacific War was about as inevitable as things get.

Is the U.S. a true neutral, a benevolent neutral, a hostile one? Is the U.S. confronting the Empire at every turn, with USN & IJN task forces glaring at each other across every atoll in the Pacific, or has Japan pulled out of the Mandates and Paulas to take the threat away from the Philippines, Guam & Wake? HAs Japan gone after the British & the Dutch? Just the Dutch? When did they head south, or west, or north?

Without a tighter focus, the answer can be pretty much anything.

[karl2025]

If the Japanese don't expand their war to fight the United States and seize oil resources in the Dutch East Indies, they would have to come to the peace table with China (Probably mediated by the United States a la Russo-Japanese War). The Japanese would probably be given very limited territorial gains against the Chinese, and the Chinese would get reimbursed for the territorial losses in the form of modern arms, infrastructure improvement, or something like that (The US might be the ones paying for this to both improve relations with China and to help soothe the Japanese).

The Japanese military would be furious at this, and start looking for a way to end their reliance on foreign oil. Shale plants in Manchuria would go a long way towards this, and Japanese interest would likely lead to an earlier discovery of the Daqing Field in Manchuko. Depending on any territory gains, they might also gain Shengli Field.

In the immediate future, Japan not attacking the United States would keep them from entering the war against Germany (Previous threads generally agreed that Germany would probably go on to win their war against the USSR in '41 or '42). With the war ending, Americans would feel largely justified in their isolationist stance, particularly after demonstrating the power of the new Bomb they had developed. Vichy would be recognized as the official government of France, though the British might push though with recognizing the Free French colonies as independent states (As a last stubborn punishment against the French who gave up so early and their enemies who would want Vichy to keep the colonies).

However, the British recognizing some of France's former colonies as independent states would likely backfire as other European Colonies would vie for Freedom. The colony Japan would be most interested in would be the Dutch East Indies. When the Indonesians start their war against the Dutch (Of course, depending on Post War Europe, there might be a Netherlands State in addition to a Dutch East Indies State), the Australians would assist the Dutch and the Japanese would assist the Indonesians in a proxy war. The Japanese would likely win and set up a pro-Japan government there.

The Philippines might stay close to the United States, afraid to go for more independence in fear of Japan exerting its will on them. But with increasing isolationism, the US could just leave the island nation to sink or swim.

In any case, sometime in the 1950's, with multiple sources of independent oil under their belt, Japan would reopen the war against China. With the feeling in American minds that military action is unwanted (or even unnecessary), Japan would have free reign in China to do whatever they wanted.

[OAM47]

My personal favorite variable is Japan deciding to just deal with the USA last (and having the means to make this descision).

[Astrodragon]

Er, just why would germany not declaring war on the USA in Dec 41 allow them to conquer Russia in 42??!

The US didnt really contribute much in the way of military forces to Europe until 43. If anything it would make lend-lease to Russia easier, as US ships would have an easier time.
Ignoring the fact that FDR was just waiting for a big enough excuse to declare war on Germany, there was already a state close to war in the North Atlantic.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by OAM47

My personal favorite variable is Japan deciding to just deal with the USA last (and having the means to make this descision).

But the whole point of Pearl Harbour was the fact that the Japanese recognised that the US navy/airforce building program was completely beyond their hope of matching or even containing it, and every month just put them in a worse force balance....So leaving the USA till last is just crazy.

[OAM47]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

But the whole point of Pearl Harbour was the fact that the Japanese recognised that the US navy/airforce building program was completely beyond their hope of matching or even containing it, and every month just put them in a worse force balance....So leaving the USA till last is just crazy.

And that is why I specificly said that there had to be circumstances to allow it... (ok, so what I said was a little unclear, but thats what the part in () ment)

[karl2025]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Er, just why would germany not declaring war on the USA in Dec 41 allow them to conquer Russia in 42??!

The US didnt really contribute much in the way of military forces to Europe until 43. If anything it would make lend-lease to Russia easier, as US ships would have an easier time.
Ignoring the fact that FDR was just waiting for a big enough excuse to declare war on Germany, there was already a state close to war in the North Atlantic.

The consensus was the lack of American industrial bombing would lead to increased material being available to the Germans and the lack of hope of a 2nd front would push the USSR to the negotiating table (they were already considering it IOTL). There are threads on it elsewhere in this site.

[Slamet]

Originally Posted by karl2025

The consensus was the lack of American industrial bombing would lead to increased material being available to the Germans and the lack of hope of a 2nd front would push the USSR to the negotiating table (they were already considering it IOTL). There are threads on it elsewhere in this site.

The British would still bomb Germany, of course with higher losses. The 2nd Front was only considered because the USSR had Allies. If the UK still advances like OTL in Africa, there's still the chance of an alternate Torch and Sicily, that'll keep them hanging.

[CalBear]

Originally Posted by karl2025

The consensus was the lack of American industrial bombing would lead to increased material being available to the Germans and the lack of hope of a 2nd front would push the USSR to the negotiating table (they were already considering it IOTL). There are threads on it elsewhere in this site.

Problem is that the first heavy bomber attack by B-17s didn't occur until mid-August 1942 and it was by 24 aircraft against a French railroad marshalling yard. The first strike against Germany wasn't until January of 1943.

[karl2025]

Originally Posted by CalBear

Problem is that the first heavy bomber attack by B-17s didn't occur until mid-August 1942 and it was by 24 aircraft against a French railroad marshalling yard. The first strike against Germany wasn't until January of 1943.

Why are you telling me this? Go find the thread, argue it there. It was just a small, pretty insignificant part of the scenario I laid out.

[danielb1]

Germany isn't necessarily going to defeat the USSR, at least not easily. The Soviet Union had greater manpower and industry at the start of the war, and even after facing heavy losses they were closely matched. There will be very little difference in 1942, at least, as the US didn't really enter the theater in force until 1943, and even then it was mostly in North Africa (a secondary front, and one the British alone could handle, even with more time and resources) and Britain (preparing for Overlord, which isn't until '44). Lend-lease also occurred earlier.

The Germans will need fewer troops on the Atlantic Wall, which they can use to reinforce the Eastern Front, (logistics doomed them in the Med.) . However, I do not possibly see the USSR falling into defeat (which I define as the Germans reaching the Urals) until 1945 AT THE EARLIEST, assuming they even 'win'. Given the relative numbers, I think the Eastern Front will devolve into a bloody stalemate. The Soviets may even win - if they do, they'll get at least as far as the Rhine.

The US may very well enter the war in 1942 or 1943 regardless. People often forget that the US and German navies already had a more-or-less undeclared war on each other by late 1941. There's a very good chance that an incident could spiral into a casus belli for Roosevelt, who was already very pro-Ally, and could be used to bring the US public opinion in favor of war. Assuming the Germans don't manage to goad the Japanese into declaring war on the US and/or the USSR, then this will screw them over big.