French don't enter the ARW

[EvolvedSaurian]

Alright, here's an idea that's been rattling around in my thoughts for a bit and I'd like to see what you think.

First off, without French help, would the colonies win their independence? My gut says yes, but only after a longer, harsher war. How much help did the French supply exactly, in terms of men, supplies and ships?

Now, as side effects of a longer war, more manpower is needed. So, my question here is, how much of that manpower could be slaves or freedmen? Enough to do away with slavery much earlier, in recognition of their services? Unrealistic or implausible?

Now here's where it gets really far out. A longer, more protracted war in the colonies is gonna need to be financed. By taxes. From people who are largely unrepresented in Britain itself. So the revolution spreads to the Isles, at first to create a more democratic system, but later into overthrowing the monarchy. George III becomes Lord-Protector of the Second Commonwealth, reads about the first Commonwealth and decides to flee to Hanover. Constitutional Convention sort of thing decides on a federal, republican structure much as the US did. ASB?

So, at the end you have the Thirteen Colonies independent, slavery ended in those colonies, a republican Britain more amenable to the US and no French Revolution or Napoleonic Wars.

I can elaborate if someone needs something cleared up. Feel free to praise or criticize.

[Haggis]

We are kinda fucked without the French money and as for the slaves, Hamilton had a plan where slaves could acquire freedom by fighting and I know Rhode Island had a few regiment composed pretty much entirely of freed slaves, so that might work.

Keep in mind that a lot of Britons were a little antsy about the war to begin with, not wanting to shoot at other British subjects, so combine that with some civil unrest and it could be possible. I mean, the British were quite fond of rioting in the 1750s and 1760s, so it could go on and on and on.

[Faeelin]

Hrmm. Alas, I can't see America winning without France. But the problem is, how do you stop France from entering without changing the situation that leads to the Revolution?

[Tobit]

I think if the revolutionaries were not essentially allied to france two things might come from that.

1. Revolutinary leaders might not act in such a bold way, maybe even avoiding armed conflict all together. The revolutionaries might simply form militias as a kind of show of independence but then not actually engage the British. Cities might declare a kind of non enforced independence.

2. Because the revolutionaries are not armed and aided by france Britain might not act in such a tyrannical way. No need to station so many troops because there is no external threats to be had.

This seems to kill the revolution but in actuallity I think we might just see more subtle drifting of America instead of a sudden break.

[Grimm Reaper]

If the colonies still win at Saratoga then the peace offer put on the table by the British is probably accepted and the British effectively develop Dominion status 90 years sooner. Later the capital is moved from London to a new city in the heart of British North America(including Canada, the US and half of Mexico).

In the early 21st Century wild considerations of how history might have been wonder if this could have been France's last chance to avert British global domination...but we all know such was inevitable.

[Dave Howery]

without France, I'd think the Colonials would be doomed to failure.... lack of weapons, funds, and no French fleet to force the issue at Yorktown...

[benjamin]

Even without direct French aid, I think the colonies would have won. Funding was not huge problem as Britain had made a lot of enemies over the previous years. The colonies were already borrowing lots of money from the Dutch through various front companies and had lots of illicit trade going on from the Caribbean all the way to China.

If we assume that Saratoga remains a colonial victory than, what would almost certainly occur would be a protracted struggle leaving Britain in command of a few major coastal cities...Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Charleston while pushed out of the interior. A negotiated settlement that gives the US its independence but far smaller land area is possible; but than so is the possibility that the British public tires of the war and it ends with a Britain in financial shambles and plagued by unrest.

Benjamin

[67th Tigers]

Originally Posted by Dave Howery

without France, I'd think the Colonials would be doomed to failure.... lack of weapons, funds, and no French fleet to force the issue at Yorktown...

Worse than that. French entry caused the British to pull back, and disperse forces to deal with the naval threat, and to decrease the forces in the colonies.

No French entry means a continuation of the aggressive campaign against Washington's Main Army, Washington's near certain defeat and a collapse of the rebellion.

[Grimm Reaper]

67th Tigers, most unlikely.

Following Saratoga the British government made a proposal which was denounced with heartbreak by a key member of the opposition as being exactly the right thing to do except for being too late, as the French response(intervention) rendered this generous proposal meaningless.

Without French intervention this proposal likely becomes the basis for a settlement circa 1779 and peace is at hand, with His Majesty's North American subjects returning to their proper loyalties.

His Majesty's North American regiments(50,000 strong!) help crush the Corsican Ogre in Spain while the firm but subtle pressure of the British Parliament on the North American Sub-Parliament abolishes slavery in the 1830s. A beautiful world order begins to form...