People and their Decisions

People and their Decisions


Standing on the Deck of the SS Haimun a man stares across the ocean to the Chinese coast. The Russians know he’s sending wireless messages to his superiors. But a spy he’s not. He’s actually a reporter, a war correspondent for The Times. He loved his job too. He’d being all over the world including; the wars in India and South Africa, and at only thirty four has his whole life ahead of him. Now he faced the decision of his life.

The Russians had sent an ultimatum. He’d not being named personally but it was obviously aimed at him. Any neutral ships carrying radio which may give away their position would be seized. That was two days ago and the Haimun was currently heading to back to the British controlled Weihaiwei. This was a disaster. Most people thought the Japanese would be crushed but after looking at the state of the Japanese he was not at all sure anymore.

This was the first real war between two great powers since the formation of Germany, and that hadn’t involved naval warfare. That’s when it hit him. He had to see the Captain. No way was he letting these Russian bastards keep him from the story of the decade.



Sometimes people make decisions which have unprecedented consequences. The man on the ship by the Chinese coast is Lincoln James. His claim to fame in our timeline was as the first person to report a war wirelessly during the action. His ship was boarded several times by the Japanese and the Russian ship, Bayan, had even fired at him. Despite assurances by the British Foreign Secretary, Lord Lansdowne, that the Russian threat was "unjustifiable and altogether absurd", James stopped after the ultimatum. In this timeline he changes his mind. And as we will find out, one decision can change the world.

After three months running rings around the Russians the SS Haimun was finally captured, boarded and Lincoln James arrested for espionage. The Times report which follows enrages the British public and the foreign office finds they have a diplomatic incident on their hands. But what happens on October the 21st made the James Incident seem like a walk in the park. I’m talking of the Dogger Bank Incident. Now there are some events in history that really do require a face-palm and the Doggar Bank Incident is one such event.

After the Japanese destroy the Russian Pacific Fleet, the Russians send out their Baltic Fleet to go all the way around the world for some revenge. As they enter the North Sea the drunken captain of the supply ship Камчатка mistakes a Swedish ship for a Japanese Torpedo boat and radios in he is under attack. Later officers take British trawlers on the Doggar Bank as more Japanese Torpedo boats and open fire killing; three and wounding six.

This, combined with the Lincoln James fiasco, causes the British press, the British people, and the British government to take a decisive anti-Russian swing. This is highly dangerous to the Russians due to the recent Anglo-Japanese alliance. France is also concerned. They’ve managed to bring Britain into the continental alliance system very recently with the Entente cordiale. Now this looks like it could be under threat: what with of course the French alliance with the Russians against the Germans.

The British Foreign Office demands the release of Lionel James, compensation for the victims and the internment of those responsible. The media begin to call the Russians ‘Pirates’ while the Japanese are actively supported by large numbers of the policial and social establishment. There’s even mobilisation of the British armed forces before France convinced Russia to relent. Lincoln James was one to hold a grudge. His articles after his release are seen as one of the key reasons for the Anti-Russian feelings which continued to fester in the Country, describing his treatment in the most vivid and dark language for the time.

Meanwhile, in the conflict zone the Japanese prove themselves to be much stronger than everyone has given them credit for. They have taken Port Arthur or, as the Japanese will call it, Ryojun, to the surprise of the rest of the world. They then managed to capture Mukden completing the rout of Russian Forces in Manchuria. After the Japanese victory in the sea Battle of Tsushima, the Russians basically haven’t a navy left either and the result of this war becomes a forgone conclusion. The Japanese, with memories of the results of the peace treaty of the Sino-Japanese War ask Britain formally to aid them at the peace table knowing they want to punish and weaken Russia.

Meanwhile events in Europe continue to develop. The British press announce that the French have funded half the war for the Russians. The anti-Russian feeling soon becomes anti-French as well. Many ask why they should favour the Frogs over the Germans considering their support for the Pirates. There was a distinct increase in the number of people advocating isolation from European alliances. Lord Lansdowne was also told that the alliance with French was quote “Not the top priority at the moment”. That’s when Germany decided in her ‘infinite wisdom’ that the time was ripe for Emperor William II to assert German equality with France in Morocco, triggering the Moroccan Crisis.

Russia begins to look for peace and Roosevelt believes he’s the man for the job. The British contact the Americans and explain to them what the Japanese will accept. France announces they too will also be at the peace conference to help Russia. The next two months will be spent convincing the Russians, and the French, they really have no choice but to accept the terms presented; at the same time events in Morocco push Britain and France to breaking point.

Britain then convinces Spain that an independent Morocco would be for the benefit of everyone (except France). Spain’s endorsement is enough to remove the French protectorate and in the following years both Germany and Britain would join France in Morocco and provide significant investment. It also marks the end of the brief Entente cordiale and Germany couldn’t be happier. Shortly after Britain decides to play high stakes poker in America telling France and Russia that if they don’t accept the terms of the peace Japan and Britain will leave and continue the war. France knew this would create a general war in Europe which they would lose since Germany would almost certainly bring in the Triple Alliance.

Roosevelt is furious since he hates the treaty. It gives Japan reparations which he’s firmly against and he feels Britain has stolen his thunder; he does not receive the Nobel Peace prize. When France convinces Russia to accept defeat and that the war is over nobody thanked her. The Japanese thank the British while the Russians are furious and in the grip of revolution. Immediately after Britain and Japan renew and strengthen their alliance. The French is terrified since their only ally has just been beaten by the Japanese and their empire looked very vulnerable.

So you can see how one person can change the world?
 
A man sits behind his desk, apparently deep in thought. Across his lips there lies the faintest trace of a smile. They had done well, very well indeed, and to think that that fool Itō Hirobumi had wanted to remove all Japanese interests in Manchuria for some pesky mutual agreement with Russia vis a vie Korea! Well look now.

On his desk in front of him he had the text of the Treaty of Portsmouth. Finally Korea had nowhere to hide. Gone are the attempts of playing them off against China or Russia or indeed any other power. And now they had Port Arthur and the whole Liaodong Peninsula! And the rail lines of Manchuria were theirs too. Not to mention all the raw resources that goes with it. And Karafuto! And then there was the $600 million in war indemnity; no thanks to that scoundrel Roosevelt. Now, surely, he would go down as one of the Greatest Prime Ministers of the Empire.

A knock on the door shook him from his pensive state.

“Prime Minister Katsura; Marshall-General Yamagata Aritomo has arrived.”

“Well invite him in then.” The frustration in his voice clearly on display; you really just can't get the staff these days.

He leaned back in the chair but for a moment. His mentor, patron almost, had achieved his greatest victory. A victory for the man, of course, it goes without saying; but more so, a victory of an idea. Japan’s military strength goes hand in hand with her status on the world stage, the stronger and more powerful the better. And through the military we build a strong and united state of people loyal and obedient to the Empire. The door re-opened and he rose to greet his guest.

“Katsura.” The man who entered the room left quite a first impression, dressed in his military finery. Here is someone use to giving orders and having them executed without question. But beneath the formality and stern exterior it was clearly obvious to those who knew him that he was in some type of ecstasy.

“Yamagata. I believe congratulations are in order.”

“My friend, tonight the world looks on Japan as a great power, not only of the Pacific but of the world. Glory for the Empire abounds. I trust the terms are to your liking.”

“Indeed, demonstrating the pure pessimism of those reluctant for war.”

“And we will move ahead with plans for a Governor-General for Korea.” It wasn’t a question.

Just like Yamagata to get straight to the point. “Following the Taiwan model, exactly, there are plenty of loyal and well deserving men for the post. But you bring it up because I assume you have someone in mind?”

“I do. I think it is time we rewarded Itō Hirobumi for all his services.”

The name came out and caused a reflexive double-take. “Itō! The man who tried to bargain away Manchuria! This man has no taste for an annexation of Korea! Why should we offer him Governor-General of Korea?”

“Well for one he would have to accept it as it is a great honour. Two, the man might be cowardly and lacking the boldness required for Japan’s expansion, but there is no way he would deliberately disregard an order from the government and his Emperor. He knows the ruin down that road. His hands are tied by our decisions. Three, with him no longer in the room, convincing the others over annexation becomes child’s play, not to mention our other priorities.”

Katsura could indeed see the logic of the choice. Actually it was really quite brilliant. Itō’s only executive power would be over trivial matters to the overall goals. He could be trusted to try to best keep the peace and support Korea’s uplifting. However, before the Prime Minister could offer a response Yamagata continued…

“In regards to the other priories, I trust a substantial portion of the $600 million will be going on military expansion?”

“Why of course! Support for the armed forces after this victory will be record high. There are also plans in the works to upgrade those current government owned industries with military applications. Then there’s the work going on in Korea, railways as we know are ill suited to private capital, at least initially.”

“And of course we will need to properly defend our new territories. We will give the people on Karafuto 3 months to leave or become Japanese citizens. And any Europeans won’t have any choice.”

Yamagata smiled. This was indeed a great day.
 
So with these developemnets will the US start to turn away from Britain, Germany, and Japan? Might we see a very different kind of combat when TTL WW1 comes about?
 
October 3rd, 1905

Itō sat in his favourite chair in his rural home, a retreat from the hustle and bustle of Tokyo, looking out over the land that he owned. He had a month left here before moving to Seoul at the behest of the Emperor; or rather, through the manipulations of that arrogant and paranoid Yamagata. His star had never been brighter than right now, honours, parades, parties, prestige. But Yamagata's unquenchable thirst for the increase in Army spending was a deeply problematic danger.

Don't get Itō wrong, he is a huge proponent of national service and the conscript army. But that is to be a tool of education! Loyalty to the Emperor and the state. A strong standing army unified the country from those who sought to divide it, or hold back progress. But domestic dissent is pretty much over. Power projection outwards the new call of the day.

Terms were being drawn up for the protectorisation of the Korean Empire, unsurprisingly, allowing Japan to control both Foreign and external trade, a move he was 100% behind. What better way to protect Japan than to surround the country with loyal buffer states. There was nothing much Korea could do to stop them now anyway.

What concerned him greatly were the plans by Yamagata and the Japanese army to wholly annex the peninsula into Japan proper. Such a fool hardy move carried broad support among the nationalistic elements of the populace and was one of the key reasons his Constitution resisted Democracy so steadfastly. What is the end game here? Taking over China? Ruling the Koreans like they were as backwards as the Taiwanese? Clearly they had no idea. Thankfully all was not lost.

In accordance with prior agreements Saionji, the president of the political party Itō founded Rikken Seiyūkai, would take over as Prime Minister in January. Though more liberal than himself, his focus on the UK as a key ally and his desire to strengthen Education policy will shift resources away from militarisation. Not to mention the Russian money will allow greater public spending without angering the landowning tax payers, an increasing small number of people with tenancy on the increase, but an increasingly powerful group at that. But now, spending could be increased and perhaps even with some tax relief. The diet might be less of a stalemate.

You see, Saionji knew like himself that Japan was an ocean empire. It was the Navy that needed support. This strengthening of the British alliance also carried with it huge potential. Greater focus on Navel power and Britain's successes at power projection were areas he hoped would filter down from closer ties. And Saionji pointed to perhaps political lessons to take. That he was less sure about.

Speaking of overseas, America’s recent hostile actions towards Japanese immigrants were cause for concern. As too was their presence in Korea. He had heard down the grape vine that Katsura had failed to come to an understanding with the Americans vis-a-vie Korea and the Philippines. Perhaps that will help convince the elders to not rush calls for annexation in the future.

From his end, the modernisation of Korea would be his top priority, aside obviously from promoting Japanese interests. All the false steps made in Japan can be avoided. It was these plans that interested him more than the ultimatum he was about to present. Of course, not that he would admit it, but somewhere deep down he was concerned that Foreign policy and high notions of Sovereignty from Korea might harm its uplifting. Perhaps he was spending too much time with Saionji?
 
12th November, 1905
Vladivostok

“Winter is coming” they said. Well winter was fucking here now! God the cold seemed to eat right through to the bone. The new city of Vladivostok, right on the edge of the Russian Empire's Far East had grown from nothing in the early 19th Century to tens of thousands and seen modernisations, with homes and jobs for these Russian colonists. But right now the city was in a state of absolute crisis.

The Japanese had being victorious in their war against Mother Russia and had extracted their terms of victory. Sakhalin was handed over, and it wasn’t long before all Russians were counted, who hadn’t already fled, and those left were duly given notice to leave. The Japanese government had "kindly" facilitated their move with transportation cost paid for, but most found they'd have to abandon anything they couldn't carry. Nearly all refugees had hoped to head back West, but the railway strikes had scuppered those plans. Hastily built wooden huts had been set up to receive them in but many necessities were scarce.

Then the real blow. Most Russians had believed that Sakhalin would have been taken by Japan. It was a loss of prestige but economically rather small. It was in Chinese Manchuria that the scale of Japan’s victory became known. The war had ultimately come about due to the Japanese worry that the Southern branch of the Chinese Eastern Railway threatened their control of Korea. That that branch would see ownership to Japan did not come as a surprise. What came as a massive kick in the stomach was the scale of the loss.

All that was left in Russian hands was a single branch from Harbin to Manzhouli, right on the edge of the Russia-China-Outer Mongolia border confluence, a branch now economically worthless. The city of Harbin itself was to be administered by Japan! How was this possible; the Japanese army had only reached Mukden, far to the south? The British. They saw this as a perfect opportunity to limit the economic strength of the Trans-Siberian railway and completely cripple Russia in Inner Manchuria.

But the real consequence of this is thousands of Russian railway workers unemployed, replaced by Japanese Zaibatsu contracted workers. Many had left to Vladivostok hoping to make it back West but they’d now become trapped, joining the Sakhalin refugees in a city that could barely cope. Anatoly was one such rail worker, stuck, cold and indeed miserable. Right now he hated the Japanese. He hated the inept military leaders. And he hated Sergei Witte.

As chief negotiator during the Treaty of Portsmouth, he returned home from America in disgrace. Anatoly didn’t know much, suck as he was, but what he had heard from newspapers and visitors from over the ocean was that the fury of the Tsar had been hard to contain.

Though right now, his hatred was masked by the cold; both the temperature, but also the numbness as to the future of his beloved Russia. What now? The elites in the cities had their high ideals of Democracy and Liberalism. The Socialists wanted the destruction of the system entirely. The streets are running red in St Petersburg, the other major cities, and the minority areas. And winter was here and still the Tsar refused to countenance any and all compromise.

The country could not keep going like this. Ultimately in Vladivostok the Military were the real power. Many were trapped here just like the refugees and the railway workers. What side the military took would probably resolve the civil conflict. Who the military supported was easy and complicated at the same time. Obviously, officially it was the Tsar. Ultimately it was whoever they wanted, and they were not one being. Rumours in the overcrowded and worried city were that revolutionaries were going to storm the council. The army were joining with security officials patrolling the streets.

Perhaps the conflict would come here, before he could leave. But then a thought came to him, in the depths of the cold. If we could flee, where would he flee to…
 
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Lots of brewing resentment and conspiricies are stirred. It will be quite interesting on how Russia may emerge from the turmoil. Add to it the way the Britishnhave thumbed their nose at the US. Then there is Germany waiting in the shadows. What machinations will they begat? Lastly will be China herself. Might she be able to unify and fight off the Empires that have creeped up and taken so much of her land and power?
 
Ah Morocco, the Western Kingdom, ruled by the 26 year old Sultan Abdelaziz for over a decade. Supposedly. In reality Morocco was run by a regent until 1900 upon his death. His name was Ba Ahmed, some say it was poison, some say cholera; who am I to judge? His regency came with it tribal revenge, nepotism and a steady hand, so the usual.

The young sultan was indeed young. By that I mean inexperienced, naïve and weak. But he did really want to modernise the country. However corruption and foreign influence seemed to blight his every turn. The people, and in particular religious and tribal leaders, balked at new “un-Islamic” taxes which were designed to repay Western Loans which were taken out for modernisation. Central authority in the rural provinces became largely lost. The loyalty of the city governors shaky at best.

The throne was less than secure. Rebellion was in the air. And France was always there too, looking on, interfering and hoping for action to create a protectorate. Deals with Italy, Spain and Britain vis-a-vie African Territorial were in place, plus the alliance with Russia. Only the Prussians would oppose them. The Tangier’s crisis would make this a reality; or so the French thought.


14th November, 1905
Fez, Morocco

The Prussian diplomat looked at the young Sultan straight in the eye. “You were lucky.”

An old advisor of the Emperor, a member of the Makhzan could not contain himself, “You cannot speak to the Sultan like that!”

“Old man, either you are a fool or you don’t have Morocco’s best interests at heart, trust me when I say the only thing he needs now is the blunt and honest truth;” Turning to the young Sultan and without leaving space for retort “your Highness, the terms of the settlement might be decent, in that it protects and strengthens Morocco’s sovereignty, but that was luck rather than careful planning. You don’t risk your country on whims of hubris.”

The Sultan was not use to being spoken to in this way. A deeply lonely child, he kind of liked it, though he could not be seen to. Submissive behaviour would only hasten his end. “Sir, I remind you that you are here on my blessing. Besides which, I was merely responding to the situation at hand.”

“You listened to my Emperor to get the European powers to decide on your country’s future, not knowing what was to be agreed. You do well to remember that in the end, you won because Britain and Spain decided to renege on past agreements with the French. Yes. The European powers are already picking what parts of your Morocco to take. Only Germany really doesn’t wish to see that.”

“How do I know this to be true?” The face of the young man was easy to read. The Prussian had told him nothing he didn’t already no know. He knew exactly what he meant.

“You don’t. Germany could turn on you at any moment if they wanted it, and don’t you forget it. It will become all too easy once you become a pawn to the French on the chess board of the great game. Thankfully the foolish gamble hasn’t resulted in your downfall. I believe you have a chance.”

“A chance?”

“Yes, a chance to not become a French protectorate. You must have heard about Korea in Asia. Even the Japanese are in the game now; officially Independent, yes, but in reality nothing more than a paper tiger in terms of sovereignty. As I was saying, you need to restructure your debts to the French now, and you need a repayment plan. The Kaiser is happy that his meddling has worked and wants to double down and offer much needed assistance.”

“Since we are being blunt, Sir, I take it from your tone you do not approve of this.” The Sultan looked on, curious.

“It is not my place to tell the Emperor of Germany what is best policy. I am his loyal subject and will follow him. He has reasons for doing things not merely out of love for you. This crisis has deeply divided the UK and France. Spain’s also in great trouble with France at the moment. This is a major set-back in French Foreign policy, policy they’ve been working on for over a decade, will probably lead to a fall of the government. Anyway, will you listen to the terms Germany wish to offer?”

“First, tell me why the British and the Spanish did it.”

“Did what?”

“Switch sides. When it was revealed, I was shocked. It seemed that my future had been sealed.”

Sigh. “Tell me, why do you think they did it?”

The Sultan now looked like a boy being schooled. Thankfully only his most trusted advisors were here to witness it.

“Er… because the Russians killed those British fishermen?”

For goodness sake “Yes your highness. But remember that is not enough. Actually the British realised that their plan for allying with France was not worth the trouble. Russia is weak and incompetent. France needs them far more than they need France. Spain has been promised some “economic aid” I believe they call it.” [It wasn’t worth pointing out that Spain was told its claims to the Riff and tip of Morocco were still recognised.] “And now Britian can enter Morocco and do business here without going through the French. So your highness, this deal…”

“Go on Sir, please.”

“We will pay off your debt to the French and other creditors that you wish with loans of our own, we offer fair terms, as you will see in the documents I provide. In return, you instigate the reforms you need to actually rule your country.”

“France, Britain, Spain, and America are also telling me what reforms I need.”

“Their reforms are bankrupting you. You need to root out corruption by monitoring your money far more rigorously. And you must start collecting tartib tax universally.”

“I don’t believe I can do that.”

“Then you will lose everything. There are plans to replace you already in motion. You must show yourself to be strong. Those that won’t pay, arrest them. Punish them, command the people’s authority as a ruler. The people want to be ruled your highness.”

“I fear you don’t know the Moroccan people.”

“Your highness. This might be your last chance to save your throne and your country. Deals like this don’t come around every day. We have a plan. Will you at least listen?”

“What sir, do you think I’ve been doing?
 
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More interesting developments. I am waiting to see what Germany may really have in store for Morocco. France losesyt another chance to keep face. Britain has washed its hands of any type of alliance with France. Spain is in turmoil and what may become of Spain, Italy, and Austria-Hungary? In the background we have the US. Will it stand by while the UK allies itself against American Interests?
 

Thande

Donor
I always thought this period was a bit underdone in AH. I remember one or two old timelines the former forum frontpage used to link to about a world war or a different alliance structures arising from the Russo-Japanese War, the Morocco Question, etc. but I don't think anyone has written about it on the modern forum for a while.

If I remember my political cartoons correctly, I think most public opinion across Europe was broadly pro-Japanese, or at least anti-Russian, when it came to Manchuria, probably to do with how open to foreign trade a Russian-influenced versus a Japanese-influenced Manchuria would be.
 
Thanks for all the positive encouragement and interest guys! It makes the motivation to write a lot easier!

So with these developments will the US start to turn away from Britain, Germany, and Japan? Might we see a very different kind of combat when TTL WW1 comes about?
Well it is true that since the Spanish-American war lead to greater American possessions in the Pacific, especially the Philippines, America is paying special attention here. This is not lost on Japan after the negotiations of the Treaty of Portsmouth. Efforts to come to an understanding over Korea between Japan and America, known OTL as the Taft-Katsura Agreement resulted in a less than promising outcome with America suggesting Korea should be open to American markets and missionaries. This is in no small part to what they perceive as a massive strengthening of Japanese presence in Manchuria.

In terms of German-American relations, not much has dramatically so far. There was much American... well I guess paranoia as to the harms of Germany gaining a coaling station in the Caribbean. The Venezuela Crisis is of course all OTL, happening before the POD which of course did sour relations somewhat. America views the actions in Morocco from somewhat a distance. They are pissed at the current Sultan for his weakness in allowing supposed American citizens to be kidnapped and held hostage for ransom. So long as American interests in the country aren't threatened they are not too bothered. The Western Hemisphere and the Pacific are their real areas of concern at the moment.

Well this has thrown a wrench into the OTL pre-WW1 alliance structure...
It certainly has indeed. Right now you can consider the alliance structure at tri-polar: France-Russia, Britain-Japan, Germany-Austria. Italy is officially with Germany but their commitment uncertain. America is officially neutral but doesn't like Germany, Japan or Russia, but less so Russia. The Ottomans are currently closer to Germany and Britain than anyone and are certainly not friends with Russia, however Britain is continuing to encroach on their territory in the South.

Lots of brewing resentment and conspiracies are stirred. It will be quite interesting on how Russia may emerge from the turmoil. Add to it the way the British have thumbed their nose at the US. Then there is Germany waiting in the shadows. What machinations will they begat? Lastly will be China herself. Might she be able to unify and fight off the Empires that have creped up and taken so much of her land and power?
Well hopefully you have noticed there's no hit of compromise in the Tsar and we are in November 1905 ;). China's problem is less her ability to unify and more her ability to gain control of the situation in any real sense. We have just come out of the Boxer Rebellion, a war was just fought on her territory and many cities are now effectively ruled by the West.

Reform or die is what is whispered outside the Empress' ear shot. But many people don't believe China could reform even if she tried. Japan is currently arguing the China question.

More interesting developments. I am waiting to see what Germany may really have in store for Morocco. France losesyt another chance to keep face. Britain has washed its hands of any type of alliance with France. Spain is in turmoil and what may become of Spain, Italy, and Austria-Hungary? In the background we have the US. Will it stand by while the UK allies itself against American Interests?
Poor France, years setting up alliance structures and plans, unravelled in only a few months. The government hasn't looked so feckless in a long time. But I don't think they are just going to roll over and wave the white flag any time soon.

In regards to Italy, she is watching the situation with mild curiosity, after all she promised away interest in Tunisia and dutifully voted with France during the conference, to no avail.

I always thought this period was a bit underdone in AH. I remember one or two old timelines the former forum frontpage used to link to about a world war or a different alliance structures arising from the Russo-Japanese War, the Morocco Question, etc. but I don't think anyone has written about it on the modern forum for a while.

If I remember my political cartoons correctly, I think most public opinion across Europe was broadly pro-Japanese, or at least anti-Russian, when it came to Manchuria, probably to do with how open to foreign trade a Russian-influenced versus a Japanese-influenced Manchuria would be.
This is actually a timeline I have had in my head for years and years but it is only now I feel confident to really try and pull it out of my head onto the forum. I just hope people like it. Basically if you don't like Russia then you are happy to see the setback for them. But many people aren't exactly best friends with Japan, seeing them as little more than Eastern Imitators.
 
Transcript from the radio show “Around the World in 100 objects”
Produced by Jack Tindale
A BBC Radio 4 Production
First Broadcast 23rd April 2015

You join us today at the Grand Tokyo Museum. I stand in front of a large glass pane, behind which we see a huge silk flag. Dated from 1908, the flag is the classical Japanese national red circle on a crisp white background. However; inside the circle, as if literally cut out from it, we see the white silhouette of the Japanese Empire. This design was first created by Daisuke Sakai to commemorate the expansion of Japan’s borders. Many believe he saw it as their “Natural State” though one does suspect the Russians and Chinese would dispute that. The flag would become instantly reproduced and copied at various sizes and waved during parades to celebrate the new strength of the Great Nation.

It is remarkable to consider that, bearing a few slight discrepancies that were corrected in subsequent editions, the islands and coastline are highly accurate. It is as if one was staring down at the Earth, like from heaven, centred on its most populous island, Honshū. Clearly testament to the navel prowess and knowledge developed since Japan’s opening after the Meiji Restoration which ended the self-imposed isolation known as Sakoku. One small deviation has been that the smallest islands are enlarged. Some would say it is just so that they can be seen, but perhaps it represents an effort on the creator to give a greater impression of Japan’s strength and territorial scope.

If we are to look from North to South the first thing to note is the newly won island of Karafuto; taken from the Russians from the very recent Russo-Japanese War. To its East are the Chishima-rettō and both come down to meet the island of Hokkaidō. It is worth pointing out that even up to the Restoration Japan’s control over Hokkaidō was more theoretical than in actuality. Then moving South we see the aforementioned Honshū and those islands surrounding her including in the North the Oki-guntō and even further out Takeshima. South from Tokyo Bay, we see the numerous Izu-shotō. Though traditionally called the Izu Seven, we clearly see over a dozen stretching in a line heading South-East where they meet the Ogasawara-guntō, divided as they are into the three subgroups: Mukojima-rettō, Chichijima-rettō, and Hahajima-rettō. Slightly off to the East is the island of Nishinoshima and further South of her the Kazan-rettō. Then far off into the East lays lonely Minamitorishima whereas to the South West we see the equally lonely, and Japan’s most Southern land, Okinotorishima.

Turning our attention back to Honshū and continuing West, there are the moderately large islands of Shikoku and Kyūshū. Beyond Kyūshū we see to the North Tsushima and directly West from Nagasaki the Gotō-rettō. Further out is the isolated Danjo-guntō and to the South East the Koshikijima-rettō. Continuing in a South Westerly direction we finally reach the Nansei-shotō, which are also known as the Ryūkyū-shotō after the ancient Kingdom that ruled the archipelago, claimed as subjects of Japan in theory until actuality after the Restoration whereupon the Kingdom ceased its existence. The very term Ryūkyū-shotō carries with it a posturing of radical separatism. The island subdivisions are, from North-East to South-West following a gentle arc the Ōsumi-shotō, Tokara-rettō, Amami-guntō, Miyako-rettō, and Yaeyama-rettō, while to the North we see the Senkaku-shotō and finally off to the East away from the main group we find the Daitō-shotō. At the end of this chain we find the familiar island of Taiwan. To the West lays the Hōko-shotō which are also well known as the Penghu Islands and completing the picture we see to the South East Kasho-to and further South Kōtō-sho while to the North of Taiwan we see the three Northern Islets to the West of Senkaku-shotō.

The overall effect is to powerfully project a sense of completeness and interconnectivity that surely cannot be by coincidence. By excluding non-Japanese territory including the coast of the Mainland it provides a view of supreme isolation of Japan, the exact opposite aim of the Meiji Restoration. And ultimately it is this that allows the notion to take hold that Japan is this and no more. By divine right no less. Whether or not this is was Daisuke’s aim we cannot say. Mutually incompatible evidence, both probably false, suggest both ignorance and design. We are prevented from understanding his inner motives due to his untimely death when assassinated by in all probably an ultra-nationalist group in 1912, furious about the flag’s new symbolism. Dr. T.Black from the University of Leeds:

“For the Militarists and Ultranationalists, the wars against China and Russia were aimed principally against non-Japanese influence in Korea and control over Chinese areas to the North. The acquisition of Taiwan and Karafuto were merely side shows. They viewed it as an insult to the dead soldiers and the very Emperor himself to suggest that Japan should cease expansion. In the halls of power surrounding the Emperor discussion of the nature of control of Korea was active and focused on strengthening control over the peninsula.

Initially the flag represented the Japanese effort to push back against encroaching foreign powers, the encroachment that lead to Japan’s Opening through the American Matthew Perry. But almost as soon as it received a national profile, questions over its legitimacy spread fast. For if one looks closely and remembers their history the key discrepancy, or deliberate excluded land, is noted for its absence. I speak of the Kwantung Leased Territory, the cities of Ryojun and Dairen.

It is questionable there was a less vital area in 1908 of Japan as this. I don’t speak of strategic locational import, though there is that of course. Rather, for many this was the proof of the Great Power status of the Empire of Japan. After the Sino-Japanese war a decade past whereupon Japan won this concession from the Chinese Empire, the Triple Intervention of Russia, Germany and France forced it back to China, only for it to be claimed by Russia. Such bullying as though Japan were some minor pawn was clearly at an end. They had gone to the international community through the negotiations of the Treaty of Portsmouth and come out at the other end as clear and victorious and recognised as equals. Well. That’s how many saw it.

The reason for its lack of inclusion could be completely innocent. This was not a direct annexation to the Empire, but a limited territorial concession, say some. Others say it was deliberately excluded as not part of Japan’s “Natural Borders”. When this terminology first came into prominence it is difficult to say. But this flag represents a major split in the political discourse and within the establishment. Not over the Kwantung Leased Territory, but over the recently protectorated Empire of Korea. And it would be this “Korean Question” that precedes the “Korean Crisis” and makes the inclusion of this flag obvious in this series of around the world in 100 objects.

Where would this flag have been flown? Well initially it would have been everywhere, until the whispers of its hidden symbolism spread. At this point the more liberal and centralist elements of Seiyūkai began to unite behind it. We see it in the universities where elite intellectuals began to seriously discuss the future of the nation. We see it in the headquarters of many centrist peasant-farmer organisations who wished for Social Reform. Its condemnation simply drew the map underground but its message seemed merely to grow with time as many unrelated groups felt a kinship due to mutual persecution.

What exactly was this dangerous message that so scared some? That Japan must strengthen the home and the people of Japan, rather than focusing on the military; a direct conflict with Former Prime Minister Katsura, and those who backed military exansion, a conflict that did not go unnoticed by Katsura’s rivals and a conflict that promised to not go away. It was also brave. Public support for the military was strong. In that way, the message was taken to the sceptical audience. Professor T. Anderson from Cambridge University:


This period was arguably Japan’s first foray into party politics in a serious way though the power of the establishment Genrō, Japan’s founding fathers if you like, remained strong. Seiyūkai, with whom the Daisuke Flag would ultimately become associated with, was founded as a party of the bureaucracy by Itō Hirobumi the very first of the Genrō, the author of Japan’s conservative Constitution, and first prime minister. I think it points to the extremely fluid situation in which this flag was thrown into. A great irony of history one could say. Could “Natural Boundaries” theory have reached the impact it did in a world without this flag? Such alternative history isn’t for me to say, but it is hard for me to imagine otherwise.

Only seven of these large flags were ever commissioned and they were ruthlessly hunted down. They were all presumed destroyed by 1920 but then in 1954, in a Shintō shrine, this survivor was uncovered. It is hard to imagine today but such was the controversy of this image it was viciously argued whether this flag should ever be allowed on display. Thankfully the suppression was rejected. Today every student and member of the public who walks through the doors of Tokyo University is confronted by this, a symbol of political conflict, a conflict of the hearts and minds of the people of these islands. Nobody knows the exact means of its survival though the shrine’s proximity to Waseda has led to speculation that the University of Waseda might have been involved. Whoever they were, we are indebted to them today.
 
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Thande

Donor
Transcript from the radio show “Around the World in 100 objects”
Produced by Jack Tindale

...

Professor T. Anderson from Cambridge University:[/I]
Well, obviously ;)

Interesting ATL use of the OTL programme; I must say I hadn't realised there was a Japanese alternative name for Sakhalin, though come to think of it of course there must be. Presumably 'Sakhalin' is the obscure name in TTL...
 
Well, obviously ;)

Interesting ATL use of the OTL programme; I must say I hadn't realised there was a Japanese alternative name for Sakhalin, though come to think of it of course there must be. Presumably 'Sakhalin' is the obscure name in TTL...
Hehe, there is another one ;)

Well in this timeline the use of 'Sakhalin' would be seen as evidence of Russian irredentism and more broadly European Imperialism. There would be no way in hell Radio 4 would be seen dead using the term, but actually few Radio 4 listeners would have difficulty picturing the outline of Karafuto.

What are your thoughts so far? I don't want to give too much a way, but I also don't want to be boring people. Do you think things are preceding fairly clearly without much in the way of ASB?
 
The background of TTL Japan seems to point out that Japan does not go crazy and invade all its neighbors down thevroad. Or not to the extremes as they did IOTL. This could have waves when a World War comes down the road.
 
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