WI: North Korean ballistic missile hits Chinese airliner during a test in 2014?

potatogod34 · Oct 7, 2015

On March 4th, 2014, North Korea launched a test of a ballistic missile. A Chinese airliner passed the trajectory of the ballistic missile seven minutes later.

What would be the international reaction and China's reaction if the missile by sheer coincidence collides with the airliner?

wilji1090 · Oct 7, 2015

China can into anschluss?

I think that the international reaction would be more focused on what China does as opposed to what the North Koreans do in response. If such a thing happened and even with the North Koreans falling over themselves to apologize to Beijing, I get the impression that China would see fit to remove Kim Jong-un and put someone in power that they can control.

If such a thing were to happen, I think it would see Sino-American relations sour considerably because while North Korea would still exist, it'd be pretty clear that they were now a Chinese province as opposed to an independent state.

mlp · Oct 7, 2015

bloody hell. in a vividly figurative sense.

Sian · Oct 7, 2015

wilji1090 said:
If such a thing were to happen, I think it would see Sino-American relations sour considerably because while North Korea would still exist, it'd be pretty clear that they were now a Chinese province as opposed to an independent state.

Yet, they would at least no longer be a hostile state that Japan and Korea is (quite as) twitchy about, so while the American government would raise a finger in public, in all likelyhood they wouldn't bother much more ... rather the area under someone they can somewhat anticipate than someone prone to making irrational actions.

naraht · Oct 7, 2015

wilji1090 said:
China can into anschluss?

I think that the international reaction would be more focused on what China does as opposed to what the North Koreans do in response. If such a thing happened and even with the North Koreans falling over themselves to apologize to Beijing, I get the impression that China would see fit to remove Kim Jong-un and put someone in power that they can control.

If such a thing were to happen, I think it would see Sino-American relations sour considerably because while North Korea would still exist, it'd be pretty clear that they were now a Chinese province as opposed to an independent state.

Not sure the PRC really want the land or the people. I'm not sure that the Chinese at any time in the 20th century claimed any more of the Korean peninsula than they have now.

What I *could* see is the PRC telling the ROK, that they have have the land/people (after the Chinese deal with Kim Jong Un and the rest of his family) as long as there are limitations on the Military Forces (i.e. none) on the Chinese Border. Say something like the ROK can have the land as long as there are no ROK forces north of Pyongyang *and* no US forces north of the DMZ. Whether the ROK would *take* that, I don't know.

wilji1090 · Oct 7, 2015

naraht said:
Not sure the PRC really want the land or the people. I'm not sure that the Chinese at any time in the 20th century claimed any more of the Korean peninsula than they have now.

What I *could* see is the PRC telling the ROK, that they have have the land/people (after the Chinese deal with Kim Jong Un and the rest of his family) as long as there are limitations on the Military Forces (i.e. none) on the Chinese Border. Say something like the ROK can have the land as long as there are no ROK forces north of Pyongyang *and* no US forces north of the DMZ. Whether the ROK would *take* that, I don't know.

Well, I mean North Korea is a coal producing nation, not sure if China needs that necessarily, but I think they would benefit from the coal. But, I think your assessment is perhaps the most logical. I definitely see China being realpolitik enough to drive some sort of wedge in between the RoK and the USA.

Alanith · Oct 7, 2015

naraht said:
Not sure the PRC really want the land or the people. I'm not sure that the Chinese at any time in the 20th century claimed any more of the Korean peninsula than they have now.

What I *could* see is the PRC telling the ROK, that they have have the land/people (after the Chinese deal with Kim Jong Un and the rest of his family) as long as there are limitations on the Military Forces (i.e. none) on the Chinese Border. Say something like the ROK can have the land as long as there are no ROK forces north of Pyongyang *and* no US forces north of the DMZ. Whether the ROK would *take* that, I don't know.

I'm not sure, on one hand, you're uniting Korea after decades of separation, all without losing a single life. On the other, well the humanitarian disaster ALONE...

Also something more reasonable might be a 20km DMZ on the new border.

EternalCynic · Oct 7, 2015

Alanith said:
I'm not sure, on one hand, you're uniting Korea after decades of separation, all without losing a single life. On the other, well the humanitarian disaster ALONE...

Also something more reasonable might be a 20km DMZ on the new border.

I don't think North Korea will go down without a fight. Even if China offered Kim and his family comfortable asylum in, say, Macau, the generals need to protect their own lives.

juanml82 · Oct 7, 2015

I don't know about politics, but whoever launched that missile should be condecorated by the North Korean military and, after the political fallout settles, invited to give conferences to military officers around the world.
We are talking about shooting down an airplane with a ballistic rocket. That's one hell of marksmanship!

Clandango · Oct 7, 2015

juanml82 said:
I don't know about politics, but whoever launched that missile should be condecorated by the North Korean military and, after the political fallout settles, invited to give conferences to military officers around the world.
We are talking about shooting down an airplane with a ballistic rocket. That's one hell of marksmanship!

We are talking about them testing a missile, not aiming it at anything.

guinazacity · Oct 7, 2015

Maybe forcing a coup inside north korea and putting a reasonable military junta on top? The zhongnanhai probably has lots of contacts in NK with generals open to the idea of change.

Drizzt · Oct 7, 2015

guinazacity said:
Maybe forcing a coup inside north korea and putting a reasonable military junta on top? The zhongnanhai probably has lots of contacts in NK with generals open to the idea of change.

naraht said:
Not sure the PRC really want the land or the people. I'm not sure that the Chinese at any time in the 20th century claimed any more of the Korean peninsula than they have now.

What I *could* see is the PRC telling the ROK, that they have have the land/people (after the Chinese deal with Kim Jong Un and the rest of his family) as long as there are limitations on the Military Forces (i.e. none) on the Chinese Border. Say something like the ROK can have the land as long as there are no ROK forces north of Pyongyang *and* no US forces north of the DMZ. Whether the ROK would *take* that, I don't know.

Perhaps a combination of both? First the PRC tries to engineer a coup, but it fails and leads to a brutal purge of pro-PRC elements within the DPRK. So the PRC decides to make the ROK an offer it can't refuse

instead.
I agree with the "no US forces north of the DMZ" condition, at least after the fighting is done. But No ROK forces North of Pyongyang is not only excessive, but also counterproductive. The North wont be economically valuable to united Korea for decades, while such a big infringement on their sovereignty will poison relations. Better to demand a 20km mutual DMZ and then work to bring united Korea into their sphere of influence.

juanml82 · Oct 7, 2015

Clandango said:
We are talking about them testing a missile, not aiming it at anything.

I know. This was tongue in cheek - the odds of hitting an airplane with a ballistic missile are astronomical, even if the airplane was in the same general area.

Alanith · Oct 7, 2015

EternalCynic said:
I don't think North Korea will go down without a fight. Even if China offered Kim and his family comfortable asylum in, say, Macau, the generals need to protect their own lives.

It sounded to me like this was more AFTER China kicked in the northern border and carried out the removal of the Kim family, giving South Korea the land as an afterthought. There's probably not a whole lot of generals to do much of anything in that case.

ppaul16 · Oct 7, 2015

naraht said:
Not sure the PRC really want the land or the people. I'm not sure that the Chinese at any time in the 20th century claimed any more of the Korean peninsula than they have now.

What I *could* see is the PRC telling the ROK, that they have have the land/people (after the Chinese deal with Kim Jong Un and the rest of his family) as long as there are limitations on the Military Forces (i.e. none) on the Chinese Border. Say something like the ROK can have the land as long as there are no ROK forces north of Pyongyang *and* no US forces north of the DMZ. Whether the ROK would *take* that, I don't know.

I don't see China giving North Korea to South Korea, if they could easily do a regime change somehow (I don't see North Korean leadership voluntarily giving up power...) China would be more likely to install a friendly puppet government to serve the same purpose as a buffer against the US on the peninsula.

Alex1guy · Oct 7, 2015

juanml82 said:
I know. This was tongue in cheek - the odds of hitting an airplane with a ballistic missile are astronomical, even if the airplane was in the same general area.

Yeah the thing is this would only be an accident. There is no way that the PRC would see this as intentional, its a one in a million shot. There wouldnt be an invasion on that basis. Its not like the Norks were quiet about testing these things and if a Chinese airliner was hit that would only be down to terrible luck. Also let's be honest, China isn't going to engage in a regime change or war over 250 odd people dying in an airline accident. They'd probably just reroute civilian flight paths and tell the North Koreans to calibrate their weapons better.

The Uchronian · Oct 7, 2015

Alex1guy said:
Yeah the thing is this would only be an accident. There is no way that the PRC would see this as intentional, its a one in a million shot. There wouldnt be an invasion on that basis. Its not like the Norks were quiet about testing these things and if a Chinese airliner was hit that would only be down to terrible luck. Also let's be honest, China isn't going to engage in a regime change or war over 250 odd people dying in an airline accident. They'd probably just reroute civilian flight paths and tell the North Koreans to calibrate their weapons better.

This is about what I was going to say, but probably better put. Although I do think it might help worsen tensions in the long run, though, depending on what happens afterwards.

NamelesStatistic · Oct 7, 2015

CaliBoy1990 said:
This is about what I was going to say, but probably better put. Although I do think it might help worsen tensions in the long run, though, depending on what happens afterwards.

I would bet the Chinese government (which in OTL is already not pleased with the aggressive posturing of the DPRK) would use the incident as a pretext to extend greater control over the North Koren government and probably drastically slow their ICBM development. I doubt they would have tor resort to an invasion to cause this since China essentially keeps North Korea afloat economically as it is and could probably get their way with economic threats alone. As to the global response to China's actions, to be blunt, America and the West would probably prefer a North Korea firmly controlled by China then current situation, the PRC may be autocratic but they have a vested interest in stability in the region, and I doubt a Chinese puppeted North Korea would regularly be threatening war with South Korea or a nuclear attack.

Honestly it would probably be better for everyone if China would step up and put their embarrassing little satellite state in check.

GFW · Oct 8, 2015

Doubt China would go to war over something like this. North Korea would go begging forgiveness, China would say some harsh words and tell them to cool it on the missile program and it'd probably all blow over after a month or so.

Andre27 · Oct 8, 2015

PRC may want to rid themselves of the Kim dynasty, but neither a complete takeover nor forcing an accelerated unification are viable options.

The first because of the state of North Korea. Poverty and famine are found in no small quantities there.

Second is the amount of minerals found in NK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_North_Korea
It's most likely not enough to warrant a takeover, but the PRC will want to keep those deposits out of South Korea hands.

Third is that PRC will not be eager to antagonize NK "other" ally: Russia.