Poland in a liberalized Imperial Germany?

Hashoosh · Dec 17, 2014

What would happen to the Poles, and Poland, if Germany liberalized after 1871 and before the First World War?

Let's say that there is broad constitutional reform (for some reason) and the country adopts democracy of the UK model, rather than the weird Byzantine-Bismarckian Chancellery model.

How would such a Germany treat the Poles, would there be franchise (if not at first, ever?) and how would it effect relations with the Austrians and Russians vis-a-vis their Poles?

Franz Josef II · Dec 18, 2014

Emperor Frederick III either is sucessfully treated for his throat cancer or he never gets it. He and Empress Victoria were seriously planning to bring about reforms to the executive level of government in the German Empire. However, I will offer a caveat here: British style reforms do not necessarily equal a fair deal for second class citizens such as the Poles. Look at how Westminster treated Ireland. The two seem to be a mirror image: a constituent part of the Union/Reich who suffer ill treatment for really no other reason than being "different."

However, I suppose it is possible that they *might* accord some measure of self government to the Grand Duchy of Posen under the princely family of Radziwill, who were intimates of the ruling class in Berlin and well known to the Hohenzollerns. This would also have knock - off effects on Alsace - Lorraine.

Cronos988 · Dec 18, 2014

Franz Josef II said:
However, I suppose it is possible that they *might* accord some measure of self government to the Grand Duchy of Posen under the princely family of Radziwill, who were intimates of the ruling class in Berlin and well known to the Hohenzollerns. This would also have knock - off effects on Alsace - Lorraine.

AFAIK they did initially grant a measure of self-government to Posen, retaining polish as an official language and generally letting the polish estates be. That changed due to nationalistic feelings being on the rise everywhere, and the Prussians cracked down on Posen and tried to force them to assimilate.

They might revert that policy and go back to a bit of a less heavy-handed approach, but I cannot see any self-goverment in the modern sense. I am not sure the German state and especially the Prussian parts of it had, at the time, the administratice structure to allow for a kind of self-government.

rast · Dec 18, 2014

The bulk of Poland and the Poles had been taken by the Russian Empire. A liberal and thoroughly democratic Germany can be expected to be on bad terms with autocratic Russia. So, the Polish divide might be cemented along a border being prepared for war/defence.

There had been manifold liberal sympathies for the Polish cause in Germany, but Polish and German nationalism had risen in mutual friction beyond these - limited - sympathies. By the 1870ies, nationalism was already in the saddle. So, perhaps no Kulturkampf - but otherwise a policy aiming at assimilation.

The question is what a liberal Prussia would do, as almost all German Poles lived in Prussia. The lesson of the Weimar Republic is that Prussia would fight to the hilt for Prussian integrity. Therefore, no special status for the Polish areas, business as usual.

MalcontentRex · Dec 18, 2014

I think that even a militant, dictatorial Germany could become allies with Poland. Even a fascist Germany could without the Slavic untermenschen views.

Franz Josef II · Dec 18, 2014

Cronos988; They might revert that policy and go back to a bit of a less heavy-handed approach said:
Emperor Frederick III would also be King of Prussia, so he would be within his rights to make changes to *his* dominions. If he he is going to change the political system such that the Chancellor and other minsters are answerable to the Reichstag - as in Britain - then I would argue there is surely a 50\50 chance that the Poles get some sympathy. Perhaps if Radziwill feels change blowing in the wind he pulls an Andrassy and enlists the Empress Victoria as an ally in his plan. She was widely thought to be a great source of Fred's liberal sympathies; perhaps a plan comes into being to restore the Grand Duchy as an autonomous region of the Kingdom of Prussia, with both German and Polish as official languages. Anything else would surely be too much too soon.

Franz Josef II · Dec 18, 2014

rast;10097940 a liberal and thoroughly democratic Germany can be expected to be on bad terms with autocratic Russia. So said:
Why would Germany and Russia be on bad terms just because they have differing political systems? Surely you realize that Russia was quite happy to be a part of the Alliance with Britain and France, and both of THOSE countries had very democratic forms of government? Germany, Austria, and Russia are not going to mess around with each other's Polish populations, because it can easily come back and bite them in the ass.

rast · Dec 18, 2014

Franz Josef II said:
Why would Germany and Russia be on bad terms just because they have differing political systems? Surely you realize that Russia was quite happy to be a part of the Alliance with Britain and France, and both of THOSE countries had very democratic forms of government?

Germany was/is obviously closer to Russia than Britain and/or France. So, there might be some embarrassment on the Russian side.
However, the major factor would be German political opinion opposite Tsarist Russia. It were the (Prussian) conservatives who wanted good relations. Liberals, progressives and socialists loathed and feared Russia.

Franz Josef II · Dec 18, 2014

rast said:
The lesson of the Weimar Republic is that Prussia would fight to the hilt for Prussian integrity. Therefore, no special status for the Polish areas, business as usual.

Weimar was a special case though, created as it was in the chaos of 1918 after WWI and the British blockade had laid Germany utterly prostrate. The artificial border with Poland, mandated at gunpoint by the Entente was the issue, and the violation of Wilson's 14 Points which the Germans had good faith in.

LordKalvert · Dec 19, 2014

rast said:
Germany was/is obviously closer to Russia than Britain and/or France. So, there might be some embarrassment on the Russian side.
However, the major factor would be German political opinion opposite Tsarist Russia. It were the (Prussian) conservatives who wanted good relations. Liberals, progressives and socialists loathed and feared Russia.

As always, the answer is "yes" and "no". The masses of Germany truly desired peace and one can see that in their votes for the Socialist parties. Russia and the German workers had a lot of common interests- like reducing the tariffs on grain. This was biting Russia hard and the workers in Germany were getting a pretty stiff deal when it came to the price of bread.

A liberal Germany is likely to bite the Poles pretty hard- the fate of ethnic minorities in multi ethnic democratic states is usually pretty bleak. That's why we see so many independence movements

Any German government is going to want to be on the best possible terms with Russia given the animosity the French will continue to play on the Western frontier and the military weakness of the Austrians.

What attitude a liberal Germany displays towards the Magyar elite is an interesting question. You might even see the Austrians decide to discard the flabby Germans who would not be the most reliable of allies and strike a deal with Russia

Franz Josef II · Dec 19, 2014

LordKalvert said:
As always, the answer is "yes" and "no". The masses of Germany truly desired peace and one can see that in their votes for the Socialist parties. Russia and the German workers had a lot of common interests- like reducing the tariffs on grain. This was biting Russia hard and the workers in Germany were getting a pretty stiff deal when it came to the price of bread.

A liberal Germany is likely to bite the Poles pretty hard- the fate of ethnic minorities in multi ethnic democratic states is usually pretty bleak. That's why we see so many independence movements

Any German government is going to want to be on the best possible terms with Russia given the animosity the French will continue to play on the Western frontier and the military weakness of the Austrians.

What attitude a liberal Germany displays towards the Magyar elite is an interesting question. You might even see the Austrians decide to discard the flabby Germans who would not be the most reliable of allies and strike a deal with Russia

I was very surprised to read that last suggestion. I doubt that the Austrians really would want to do that. The Germans - regardless of their political persuasions - are Vienna's only meaningful friend, and the Government knows this. As to the Magyar question, they will most likely leave that to the purview of Francis Joseph. Germany, too, will need a solid friend on the Continent, and the most reliable one is going to be Austria.

rast · Dec 19, 2014

LordKalvert said:
Any German government is going to want to be on the best possible terms with Russia given the animosity the French will continue to play on the Western frontier and the military weakness of the Austrians.

It is my deep conviction that any democratic government in Imperial Germany would not have neglected armaments in the way the authoritarian rulers did.

Germany would have been armed to the teeth, being capable of standing alone. - "We'll attack nobody, but who attacks us will be crushed" as motto of an armed democracy ready to destroy any invader. Socialist "volkswehr" ideas and calling to service all young men were not incompatible.

Caught between the hereditary enemy in the west and the slavic hordes of the east, one had to be ready for all-out war.

LordKalvan · Dec 19, 2014

rast said:
Caught between the hereditary enemy in the west and the slavic hordes of the east, one had to be ready for all-out war.

Festung Deutschland anyone? When I read about "hereditary enemy in the West" and "Slavic hordes in the East" I have some difficulties in believing the German state is democratic and peaceful.

RousseauX · Dec 19, 2014

rast said:
It is my deep conviction that any democratic government in Imperial Germany would not have neglected armaments in the way the authoritarian rulers did.

Germany would have been armed to the teeth, being capable of standing alone. - "We'll attack nobody, but who attacks us will be crushed" as motto of an armed democracy ready to destroy any invader. Socialist "volkswehr" ideas and calling to service all young men were not incompatible.

Caught between the hereditary enemy in the west and the slavic hordes of the east, one had to be ready for all-out war.

A democratic Germany in the late 19th/early 20th century meant an SPD Socialist government.

Please tell me about how they are going to create a militarist state greater than that of the Kaissereich

MrHaakwood · Dec 19, 2014

LordKalvan said:
Festung Deutschland anyone? When I read about "hereditary enemy in the West" and "Slavic hordes in the East" I have some difficulties in believing the German state is democratic and peaceful.

I think that this is just geopolitcs. This Germany is on both sides surrounded by not so nice Empires which both have a history of meddling in Germany.

RousseauX said:
A democratic Germany in the late 19th/early 20th century meant an SPD Socialist government.

Please tell me about how they are going to create a militarist state greater than that of the Kaissereich

Look at France for a good comparsion. It would be a different kind of militarism. Not the elite style prussian aristrocat, but a deep all classes embracing militarism.

RousseauX · Dec 19, 2014

MrHaakwood said:
Look at France for a good comparsion. It would be a different kind of militarism. Not the elite style prussian aristrocat, but a deep all classes embracing militarism.

How militaristic was France in 1900?

Deimos · Dec 19, 2014

RousseauX said:
Please tell me about how they are going to create a militarist state greater than that of the Kaissereich

Well, compared to France Imperial Germany spent less of its GDP on the military, it also conscripted less men than it could have and its military service was shorter.

All three factors could be changed to make a democratic Germany more militarist than its Imperial counterpart.

RousseauX · Dec 19, 2014

Deimos said:
Well, compared to France Imperial Germany spent less of its GDP on the military, it also conscripted less men than it could have and its military service was shorter.

All three factors could be changed to make a democratic Germany more militarist than its Imperial counterpart.

France was also

1) planning on taking territory back from Germany
2) Had much smaller population/industry than Germany

So it stood to reason they needed greater GDP % to reach something resembling parity with Germany

This doesn't seem to indicate greater militarism

MrHaakwood · Dec 19, 2014

RousseauX said:
France was also

1) planning on taking territory back from Germany
2) Had much smaller population/industry than Germany

So it stood to reason they needed greater GDP % to reach something resembling parity with Germany

Well, you seem to have answered your question. In Germanys case:

Have as much men under arms that nobody come to the idea to start a fight with Germany. Kaiserreich Germany was far away from its potential, because of politcal reasons. The elite didnt want to water down the army as a poitcal tool. Here the elites come from a different socio-economic background, hence you will probably see a much different army and conscription.

Deimos · Dec 19, 2014

RousseauX said:
France was also

1) planning on taking territory back from Germany
2) Had much smaller population/industry than Germany

So it stood to reason they needed greater GDP % to reach something resembling parity with Germany

This doesn't seem to indicate greater militarism

But looked at in percentages there were more soldiers in France compared to the overall population than in Germany. A higher percentage of soldiers in the citizenry is a very good indication how militarised a state might be.

Furthermore, territorial ambition in the face of your neighbours directed ath their land seems like a lot more aggressive militarism than a militarism that is supposed to maintain territorial integrity. In fact, one might argue that the latter is reactive to the former.

However, this is very off-topic and it might be wise to move this part of the discussion elsewhere.