What If Napoleon had never invaded Russia?

I was wondering what would happen if Napoleon never invaded Russia, or at least invaded with a smaller army, thus minimizing his losses.

I personally think that he might have been able to keep his empire alive for a lot longer, as the failed invasion of Russia set off his other major losses, but I'd like to hear what other people have to say about it.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
If he lets Russia get away with no punishment after it abandoned the Continental System, other countries will be tempted to likewise ignore it. What would he do then?
 
If he lets Russia get away with no punishment after it abandoned the Continental System, other countries will be tempted to likewise ignore it. What would he do then?
He'd obliterate them like he used to do.

The only reason he lost was because General Winter took him on. Nobody can conquer Russia in the winter... unless you're the mongols.
 
If he lets Russia get away with no punishment after it abandoned the Continental System, other countries will be tempted to likewise ignore it. What would he do then?

Invade them, the loss of prestige would be heavy with Russia going its own way, but so long as Napoleon keeps the clamp on the rest (The far smaller and populationally dense countries of central Europe, they can't much about it unless they organize themselves together with Russia backing them.

The millions strong army that bled into snow during the Russian, as a result of Napoleon showing restraint, is now fresh and more than capable of waging war on the rest of the continent.

If a new round pops off France would be operating from a place of military strength but strained political legitimacy but what flies for Russia won't fly for anyone else no matter what they do or how they protest.
 
He'd obliterate them like he used to do.

The only reason he lost was because General Winter took him on. Nobody can conquer Russia in the winter... unless you're the mongols.

Actually, the Grand Armee was dying off in droves long before winter set in. The utterly abysmal supply situation that the army had, mixed with Napoleon's dithering and the scorched earth tactics of the Russians meant that starvation was a constant factor. This char illustrates it quite nicely:

napoleonArmy.gif
 
Paradoxically, the Continental System would still be in place had Napoleon not tried to enforce it on Russia. It would be ineffective in forcing Britain to the negotiating table, but Napoleon could still hold on to his clients without having his veteran army eaten away in Russia. Problem is, this would devolve into a stalemate that would eventually force either side to concede. And since Napoleon let Tsar Alex off the hook, he'd be faced with the constant prospect of other states taking advantage of his leniency to trade with Britain. Given his ego, he probably won't buckle until he dies or gets a full-blown rebellion.
 

Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
If he doesn't invade Russia, he should use his army against Wellington and drive him out of the peninsula. Adding Spain and Portugal to the Continental System is much more important than enforcing it in Russia and will to a lot of harm to the British economy which is already hit by strikes and the Luddite movement.

Though, there are still three mighty old style monarchies (Prussia, Austria and Russia) waiting for an opportunity to overthrow Napoléon and restoring the old order in Europe.

Even if he doesn't attack in 1812 - Napoléon will have to deal with Russia better sooner than later. As to the question HOW to win against Russia, he should have conquered Smolensk as OTL and then hibernated there rebuilding the Grand armée. A second campaign in 1813 should then bring the victory.
 
If he doesn't invade Russia, he should use his army against Wellington and drive him out of the peninsula. Adding Spain and Portugal to the Continental System is much more important than enforcing it in Russia and will to a lot of harm to the British economy which is already hit by strikes and the Luddite movement.

Though, there are still three mighty old style monarchies (Prussia, Austria and Russia) waiting for an opportunity to overthrow Napoléon and restoring the old order in Europe.

Even if he doesn't attack in 1812 - Napoléon will have to deal with Russia better sooner than later. As to the question HOW to win against Russia, he should have conquered Smolensk as OTL and then hibernated there rebuilding the Grand armée. A second campaign in 1813 should then bring the victory.
I wonder how Napoleon would have gone against the lines of Torres Vedras.
Second Napoleon believed that when he had captured Moscow the Russians would be forced to negotiate. It didn't happen. Napoleon seemed at that point in his career to choose to capture enemy Capitals when he ran out of other ideas, it was increasingly not working for him.
 
the supply line thing did him in just as much as winter.

Napoleon kept playing into the hands of the Russians and went belly up as a result. He expected the Russians to come out and fight, as they usually did. They didn't. they retreated, and Nap foolishly followed, against the advice of his staff. His staff offered alternative attack routes which would allow for greater flexibility, but he didn't listen. he just kept going straight in, hoping and praying that one more victory would bring the Russians to the table. The Russians were under immense pressure domestically because they kept retreating. Nap eased all that pressure by doing what the Russians wanted and making the retreat/scorched earth policy work. Domestically, it would have been a nightmare for the Russians if Nap had laid back and not pursued.

Nap made a lot of mistakes. Declaring against Russia was not as big a blunder as how he chose to prosecute the war. (edit). war with Russia was almost inevitable (no war is inevitable, imo). So, it's not a question of if, but a question of how.

IMO, one of his biggest blunders was the continental system. He didn't have the kind of power to make it work for the length of time he needed it too. It was the root of the Russian war, and ended up hurting the French worse than it helped.
 
The best thing Napoleon could have done was not pursue the Russians. Maybe take back the rest of the old Commonwealth and then sit back. At some point the Russians will have to come to him. Scorched earth only works if the enemy pursues you. When they do come around to a pitched battle, Napoleon shouldn't have much trouble in winning.
 
The best thing Napoleon could have done was not pursue the Russians. Maybe take back the rest of the old Commonwealth and then sit back. At some point the Russians will have to come to him. Scorched earth only works if the enemy pursues you. When they do come around to a pitched battle, Napoleon shouldn't have much trouble in winning.
What Napoleon wanted was for the Russians to be defeated.in TOTL., he did win a battle, but they wouldn 't admit they they had lost the war. If the Russians come to Napoleon, and he defeats them in battle, but they refuse to negotiate, then he's not a lot better off.
 
I'd call still having an army as being a lot better off.
He still wants a solution to his Russian problem (not forgetting his British problem and his Spanish Problem), and in this situation he doesn't have one. The aim of warfare is usually to create conditions for a stable political settlement, and its not clear that Napoleon can get one.
 
He still wants a solution to his Russian problem (not forgetting his British problem and his Spanish Problem), and in this situation he doesn't have one. The aim of warfare is usually to create conditions for a stable political settlement, and its not clear that Napoleon can get one.
Netheir can the coalition.
 
Napoleon and his army left Russia before the winter 1812/13 set in.
General Winter is myth which has no base in reality.

The last French troops left Russian soil in December; even if you count the crossing of the Berezina, that was November, which I'm pretty sure is Winter.

Additionally, many of the primary sources mention the weather as a factor. That the logistic situation and set up by Napoleon was a greater cause does not consign the impact of the Russian weather to the status of myth.
 
Netheir can the coalition.
At this point the British control the seas, the Spanish have an insurgency, the Russians are undefeated (assuming ATL) Napoleons allies are uncertain, and Napoleon himself is prone to ill-health. And the heredity monarchs outside France have an advantage that they are the traditional rulers. In OTL Napoleon found out that in the event of his 'death'. He couldn't persuade the French people to say "The King is dead. Long live the King." Napoleon has much more need of a political settlement.
 
At this point the British control the seas, the Spanish have an insurgency, the Russians are undefeated (assuming ATL) Napoleons allies are uncertain, and Napoleon himself is prone to ill-health. And the heredity monarchs outside France have an advantage that they are the traditional rulers. In OTL Napoleon found out that in the event of his 'death'. He couldn't persuade the French people to say "The King is dead. Long live the King." Napoleon has much more need of a political settlement.

So let's say Napoleon occupies the entire old PLC. Defeats Russia decisively in battle, sits there. His position is not in any way weakened by Russia's refusal to admit they lost.
 
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