Pacific Ordeal

CalBear

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Here is something new.

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.Preface

While every war has, virtually by definition, surprises, either of the tactical or strategic variety, World War Two stands out for the sheer number of improbable events that marked it nearly from the onset. The rapid advance of the Third Reich’s forces across Poland, which ushered in a new form of combined arms warfare that came to be known as Blitzkrieg (“lightning war” in English) was on display from the start of the European hostilities, reaching its highest point in the stunningly rapid defeat of France in a six week trophy dash across one of the major military powers of the era. The speed with which the Germany Army dispatched its large and well equipped French opponent (along with the elements of the British military that were in France as part of the Anglo-Franco Alliance) remains one of the classic campaigns of the modern era, despite its pre-war improbability. Slightly more than a year later Hitler’s Germany then began Operation Barbarossa, a stunningly ambitious offensive meant to overwhelm the Soviet Union in a single massive push. The German invasion was made all the more improbable by the fact that the Soviet Union was in a near alliance with Hitler’s government and Soviet materials were being shipped to Germany under a trade agreement almost literally until German Army forces engaged the Red Army, and NKVD Border Guards on June 22, 1941. The invaders managed to achieve a series of remarkable victories, including some of the largest double envelopments in military history and appeared to be poised to destroy the Soviet Union before the Red Army, miraculously, managed to regain its footing and stop the Nazi juggernaut on the outskirts of both Moscow and Leningrad (today’s Saint Petersburg).

Possibly more remarkable was the series of defeats that forces of the Japanese Empire managed to inflict on the European colonial powers and on the United States, starting with a series of coordinated and highly successful attacks across much of the Pacific Basin and SE Asia. Japan, for nearly half a year ran rampant over “western” forces that had been dismissive of the fighting potential of the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy in the months leading up to December of 1941. In rapid succession Wake Island, Guam, Malaya, Singapore (the vaunted Gibraltar of the Pacific), the Dutch East Indies, and the Philippines fell to Japanese forces, seemingly before the smoke had cleared from the destruction of the American Battle Line at Pearl Harbor. In the context of the moment, the U.S. Navy’s defeat of the Japanese strike fleet during the Battle of Midway was seen as a “Miracle at Midway” (in actual fact it was a combination of strong intelligence work and informed risk taking by the U.S. naval command, especially CINCPAC Admiral Chester Nimitz).

However, even if taken in aggregate, all the earlier improbabilities and surprises of the conflict fade to near insignificance when compared to the assassination of Adolph Hitler as the opening event of a military coup in early March 1943, and subsequent surrender of Germany to the Western Allies.

The plotters, motivated as much by personal and professional dislike of Hitler the man as by his abhorrent racial policies, managed to place an explosive device, disguised as a bottle of Cointreau, onto the Reich’s leader’s personal aircraft during a visit by the “Fuhrer” to a forward command post located at Smolensk, Russia (nee: USSR). With the Nazi leader eliminated the plotters managed to wrest control of the government from the remaining senior leaders of the Reich, generally via an 8mm or 9mm bullet to the head. There have been entire series of excellent books published that examine the St. Patrick’s Day Coup (something of a misnomer since the Coup started some four days earlier, on March 13th 1943, although the plotters did achieve firm control on the 17th). The fascinating details of the event are far beyond the scope of this work (for those readers who wish to pursue the subject in depth Arun Singh’s exception Killing the Devil, the Death of the National Socialist movement from University of Chicago Press is highly recommended) but the results are not.

The plotters made almost immediate overtures to the “Western Allies” (effectively Great Britain as leader of the Commonwealth and the United States of America) to cease hostilities in the West while continuing against the Soviet Union, which had begun to push back against the invaders with the successful destruction of the German 6th Army at Stalingrad. These initial feelers were refused, in no small part due to an off the cuff remark by President Roosevelt a few weeks earlier that called for “Unconditional Surrender” of all the Axis powers. A second efforts, in early April, offered complete surrender on all fronts, albeit in a phased manner. Fully cognizant of the horrific atrocities conducted on the Eastern Front by Einsatzengruppen (specialist units under control of Himmler’s SS with the sole mission of exterminating specific groups including Communist leaders, Roma and especially Jews) and the other vile depredations inflicted on the Soviet Union the military dictatorship of General Friedrich Olbricht had no desire to allow Soviet occupation of any part of Germany. While the American President was initially unwilling to accept the offer, seeing it as a stab in the back of the Soviets, he was persuaded by his advisors, both military and civilian, as well as by the extremely persuasively British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, that the April offer was simply too good to refuse. Motivated by estimates that U.S. Army combat casualties could easily exceed 500,000 if it was necessary to fight for every inch of ground between the English Channel and Berlin and a strong desire to move more strongly against the Japanese in the Pacific Roosevelt endorsed a modified version of the April offer.

This offer required that the Germany submit to occupation by Anglo-American and French forces for an indefinite period, disarmament of all German forces West of the Prewar German borders, surrender for trial of any individuals accused of war crimes to the parties making the accusations (including the Soviet Union), immediate release of all Anglo-American and French prisoners of war, followed by the release of all Soviet prisoners once the occupation of Germany had been completed. Surrender of all German forces in the East was to be completed within 60 days of acceptance of the Allied counter-offer, until then German forces were to conduct no offensive operations, including bombing, against Soviet forces but were “authorized to defend themselves if necessary”. Roosevelt had expected the situation in the East to more or less immediately fall into a cease fire with the two sides remaining place until the organized surrender. The Allied offer was received by Junta representatives on April 29th, 1943. The junta accepted these terms on May 5th, 1943. Italy surrendered under virtually the same terms on May 7th. Critically the Soviet leader, Josef Stalin was NOT consulted before the surrender was arranged.


Allied forces began to land in France three days after the signing of the agreement on May 12th, 1943. Upon arrival in France, two things became apparent. French civilians had managed to retain a remarkable amount of high quality wine and harder spirits despite a three year occupation, and there were almost no German troops to be found.

Friedrich Olbricht and his fellow junta members had, unsurprisingly, interpreted the agreement to Germany’s maximum benefit and had, nearly from the moment the April 29th proposal had been received begun to transfer forces to the East by every available method, the better to slow the expected advance of the Red Army. Unlike FDR, the Junta had no illusions regarding a cease fire, they were well aware of how Stalin would react. It was not the first time, nor would it be the last, that FDR failed to understand Josef Stalin.

It was not just the Junta that made the most of the surrender. While virtually all available U.S. troops were ferried to France via transports, the German decision to reserve the French Channel ports greatly aided these troop movements, a significant portion of British and, critically, Free Polish, forces and been embarked on May 8th, and began to move even before the actual surrender document was formally signed. Heavily escorts by Royal Navy units and with as much air cover as could be found (including RAF aircraft landing at Luftwaffe airbases as early as the last afternoon of May 12th, something that has long been seen as proof that Churchill and made additional arrangements with the Junta without including his American allies). These forces docked at Danzig (today’s Gdansk), with the stated intention of accepting the surrender of German forces in Eastern Prussia. Curiously, while several brigade sized until indeed entered Prussia, where they were greeted with considerable ceremony by the German command, the majority of the British forces, and 100% of the Polish forces spread across Poland, with the Polish Government in exile flying in on the 15th Of May. Polish resistance troops led their regular forces, along with British army troops to the great extermination site of Auschwitz and other concentration camps (on arrival the British found few, if any of the SS guards alive, most had been murdered by German Army troops during the coup or by either inmate or Polish resistance fighters) where the evidence of the Nazi’s “Final Solution to the Jewish Problem” was visible in all of its horrors, despite some efforts by the Junta to provide relief to the victims of the camps. British forces also liberated considerable numbers of Soviet PoWs (something that would be troublesome in the months and years to come). Further evidence of a side deal with the Junta is found in the British decision to allow military supplies for Heer forces to move through areas of Poland under their control. In any case, by July 1st the British had nearly two full corps of British, Commonwealth and Free Polish Army troops in Poland and Eastern Prussia, many of them arrayed along the Eastern borders of the two regions.

American troops reached Berlin on June 7th, 1943 and accepted formal control of the ex-Nazi capitol at 13:00 local time.

The citizen of the Allied nations celebrated the defeat of the Nazis and expected to soon follow these happy gatherings with other celebrating the defeat of the Japanese Empire.

There were no celebrations in Moscow.
 
EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! :D:D:D:D:D

Is this going to be a Soviet/WAllies War? Or? Or? I dunno colour me curious!
 
you have to wonder if there are more PODs here than what's noted. The US and UK seem more than happy to ignore Stalin in pursuit of victory over Germany... did they have some kind of falling out before all this? Stalin say some unwise things? No Lend Lease?
 

Faeelin

Banned
you have to wonder if there are more PODs here than what's noted. The US and UK seem more than happy to ignore Stalin in pursuit of victory over Germany... did they have some kind of falling out before all this? Stalin say some unwise things? No Lend Lease?

Maybe Operation Pike was given a go?
 
USSR helps Japan? Can see how this would truly be an ordeal for the US even if the soviets won't fire a shot. Oil, steel and many more, what Japan increasingly lacks...
 
Then the Western Allies can send military aid to the Ukrainian rebels among with the Baltic State insurgents as payback for maybe supporting Imperial Japan....
 
Then the Western Allies can send military aid to the Ukrainian rebels among with the Baltic State insurgents as payback for maybe supporting Imperial Japan....

I don't know if allusion to "Russia" means something happens to USSR in this TL or that is simply because the TL is written from an "ATL today" perspective in which more or less the USSR dissolution still happens. But in the ATL timeframe the germans were still controlling most of the Baltic countries and Ukraine (not to mention things like Moldova), so possibly some or all those territories are not handed back to USSR? Well, eastern Poland is already lost. I could see why the soviets would be thoroughly pissed off. Oh and apart from Japan, KMT beware, maybe Mao gets a friend in Stalin much earlier. Hmmm...

Anyway, no idea what direction the author's TL goes, just speculating.
 
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USSR helps Japan? Can see how this would truly be an ordeal for the US even if the soviets won't fire a shot. Oil, steel and many more, what Japan increasingly lacks...

Getting it all to the home islands through a combined USN-RN blockade might be a problem.

And by might, I mean it's going to be a HUGE problem.

Also...very bad move on Stalin's part if he goes there.

In aiding Japan, the Soviets are backing the regime that bombed Pearl Harbor.

American public sentiment against Japan is very hostile, as will be American public sentiment against anybody helping the Japanese drag out the war in the Pacific.

Thin Man goes to Hiroshima, Fat Man goes to Russia?
 
Getting it all to the home islands through a combined USN-RN blockade might be a problem.

And by might, I mean it's going to be a HUGE problem.

Also...very bad move on Stalin's part if he goes there.

In aiding Japan, the Soviets are backing the regime that bombed Pearl Harbor.

American public sentiment against Japan is very hostile, as will be American public sentiment against anybody helping the Japanese drag out the war in the Pacific.

Thin Man goes to Hiroshima, Fat Man goes to Russia?

I don't think the Soviets are actually gonna aid Japan. Instead, they might try to fight both Japan and the WAllies.
 
You didn't mention the Balkans or Central Europe but I'm guessing that the Western Allies have occupied them with at least token forces and are turning things over to the various Governments-in-Exile or acceptable locals considering that less any major changes the Eastern Front was a long way away with the Germans still controlled Belorussia and most of Ukraine? A free Europe that likely meets the USSR along the Polish, Czechoslovak and Moldovan borders would make things very different. I'll definitely be interested to see where you take things with regards to the occupation of Germany, whether Poland gets 'moved' westwards, or what happens to the Baltic states. That's not even counting the main show in the Pacific. :)


Why is it called Pacific Ordeal?
Well the Allies have effectively wrapped up the European Theatre of Operations just shy of two years earlier than our timeline. I'm guessing moving the bulk of their forces to the Pacific and mistakes caused by overconfidence, plus no nuclear weapons being available for another 26 months, mean that the very bloody battles that happened in our timeline are writ even larger here. That's not even taking into consideration what a supremely pissed off Stalin might decide to try and get up to.
 
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