Confederate Arizona

Juan de Mariana · Oct 21, 2014

Well, this is my first thread. It's about the Confederate Territory of Arizona:

Can the confederates keep the Arizona Territory if the CSA gains independence by a peace treaty after a democrat wins the presidential election of 1864?

PS: Please forgive my english. English isn't my native language.

machine3589 · Oct 21, 2014

From what I've learned on this website, a Confederate victory is only feasible if the USA ends up fighting the UK or France at the same time. If peace is made that the CSA and its allies (or perhaps "patrons" would be the better word) are dictating peace terms on the USA, then I guess it is concievable that the Arizona territory would have to be ceded.

iddt3 · Oct 21, 2014

Juan de Mariana said:
Well, this is my first thread. It's about the Confederate Territory of Arizona:

Can the confederates keep the Arizona Territory if the CSA gains independence by a peace treaty after a democrat wins the presidential election of 1864?

PS: Please forgive my english. English isn't my native language.

The CSA never managed to control it, nor project all that much power into it. Even with Peace Democrats, I strongly doubt the Confederates are getting anything they don't control, whether that be Arizona or West Virginia.

Anaxagoras · Oct 21, 2014

Juan de Mariana said:
WCan the confederates keep the Arizona Territory if the CSA gains independence by a peace treaty after a democrat wins the presidential election of 1864?

A Confederate victory in 1864 via a defeat of Lincoln at the polls is quite possible. But if it happened, it would take place more than two years after Confederate troops had been driven out of the New Mexico/Arizona region. In the peace negotiations, the Confederates would stand no chance of getting the territory.

Juan de Mariana · Jun 10, 2015

Anaxagoras said:
A Confederate victory in 1864 via a defeat of Lincoln at the polls is quite possible. But if it happened, it would take place more than two years after Confederate troops had been driven out of the New Mexico/Arizona region. In the peace negotiations, the Confederates would stand no chance of getting the territory.

And what if the confederates occupy some places of Kentucky or Missouri and they agree to withdraw in exchange for the Arizona Territory? Is it possible?

Lateknight · Jun 10, 2015

Juan de Mariana said:
And what if the confederates occupy some places of Kentucky or Missouri and they agree to withdraw in exchange for the Arizona Territory? Is it possible?

It's possible it's just very unlikely.

Kung Fucious · Jun 10, 2015

Juan de Mariana said:
And what if the confederates occupy some places of Kentucky or Missouri and they agree to withdraw in exchange for the Arizona Territory? Is it possible?

Probably not. If the CSA (somehow) wins with Lincoln losing the election and McClellan negotiating a peace, they'll be lucky to walk away with the Deep South, Texas, and maybe half of Virginia. They'd have to be very, very stupid to try and dictate terms to the US.

Juan de Mariana · Jun 10, 2015

Lateknight said:
It's possible it's just very unlikely.

Why is it so unlikely?

Juan de Mariana · Jun 10, 2015

Kung Fucious said:
Probably not. If the CSA (somehow) wins with Lincoln losing the election and McClellan negotiating a peace, they'll be lucky to walk away with the Deep South, Texas, and maybe half of Virginia. They'd have to be very, very stupid to try and dictate terms to the US.

Well, my idea wasn't that McClellan is the president. I was thinking in other men, such as Horatio Seymour.

TFSmith121 · Jun 10, 2015

Not in anything resembling reality

Juan de Mariana said:
Well, this is my first thread. It's about the Confederate Territory of Arizona:

Can the confederates keep the Arizona Territory if the CSA gains independence by a peace treaty after a democrat wins the presidential election of 1864?

PS: Please forgive my english. English isn't my native language.

Not in anything resembling historical reality.

First and foremost, not only had the rebels been driven out of the New Mexico Territory by the spring of 1862, they had also lost El Paso ... And the Comanche had pushed the line of settlement eastward some 100 miles, almost to the Balcones.

Kind of difficult for the rebels to project power west from Texas in 1865.

Likewise, they had also lost Missouri and Kentucky in 1862, as well as Tennesee (to all intents and purposes) and much of Arkansas and the Indian Territory. By 1864, even before the election, they had also lost western Virginia, most of northern Virginia, and almost everything worth noting with on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The other problems with the "Lincoln loses in 1864" meme are:

A) it is basically impossible in terms of the electoral college and beyond impossible in the popular vote;
B) Inauguration Day isn't until March, which basically means the war is won, anyway.

Best,

jahenders · Jun 10, 2015

Possible, but not likely (or even "quite possible). First, it made (some) sense for Copperhead Dems to talk about some kind of ceasefire/peace when things were looking fairly bleak for the US. However, as the election neared, the US was doing well and the CSA falling apart (fall of Atlanta, etc), so McCllelan had to repudiate his party's platform of calling for peace. Likely NO candidate could win at that point with a platform calling for peace when close to victory in a long, devastating war.

For McClellan (or anyone) to have a good chance in 1864, things have to go substantially better for the CSA in 1864 (or earlier) -- far more US loss in the Overland Campaign (VA), Sheridan defeated in the 1864 Valley Campaign, Sherman halted at Atlanta, etc. Barring horrible US blunders, those are all somewhat unlikely given the huge forces the US was bringing to bear and the dwindling CSA forces.

Even if things went better for CSA in 1864 and a Copperhead was elected in the US, it's not a given they could reach a peace settlement with the US (since treaties need to be approved by the Senate). Likely the CSA would have to be generous in negotiations to improve the odds of the President and Senate agreeing to terms. Trying to reclaim AZ wouldn't be generous, nor would it likely be high on the CSA list of things to fight for.

Anaxagoras said:
A Confederate victory in 1864 via a defeat of Lincoln at the polls is quite possible. But if it happened, it would take place more than two years after Confederate troops had been driven out of the New Mexico/Arizona region. In the peace negotiations, the Confederates would stand no chance of getting the territory.

Juan de Mariana · Jun 10, 2015

TFSmith121 said:
Not in anything resembling historical reality.

First and foremost, not only had the rebels been driven out of the New Mexico Territory by the spring of 1862, they had also lost El Paso ... And the Comanche had pushed the line of settlement eastward some 100 miles, almost to the Balcones.

Kind of difficult for the rebels to project power west from Texas in 1865.

Likewise, they had also lost Missouri and Kentucky in 1862, as well as Tennesee (to all intents and purposes) and much of Arkansas and the Indian Territory. By 1864, even before the election, they had also lost western Virginia, most of northern Virginia, and almost everything worth nothing with on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The other problems with the "Lincoln loses in 1864" meme are:

A) it is basically impossible in terms of the electoral college and beyond impossible in the popular vote;
B) Inauguration Day isn't until March, which basically means the war is won, anyway.

Best,

Well, I think that the scenario when Lincoln loses the presidential election of 1864 is perfectly possible, given a different development of the war. There are many possible PODs that allow the Confederate States to have more territory in 1864 than IOTL.

Urcea · Jun 10, 2015

Anaxagoras said:
A Confederate victory in 1864 via a defeat of Lincoln at the polls is quite possible. But if it happened, it would take place more than two years after Confederate troops had been driven out of the New Mexico/Arizona region. In the peace negotiations, the Confederates would stand no chance of getting the territory.

Lincoln infamously resolved to win the war during his term if lost. By March 1865 the war had already pretty much wrapped up with a Lincoln second term having been secured IOTL. Perhaps Lincoln just gets more aggressive and the war is won ~2 months earlier (at higher cost) ATL, which means that "McClellan Wins" isn't a plausible POD.

Readman · Jun 10, 2015

Thing is though, Lincoln losing the election isn't all that easy, Shermans capture of Atlanta was a massive influx of positive morale/propaganda (if you want to call it that) And as noted/stated, if he *did* some how lose, back then inauguration was not until the following March.

Plenty of time to do everything in his power possible to go all out. Kinda pointless I think it would be for Little Mac to make peace with an enemy who was for all practical purposes beaten

Urcea · Jun 10, 2015

Readman said:
Thing is though, Lincoln losing the election isn't all that easy, Shermans capture of Atlanta was a massive influx of positive morale/propaganda (if you want to call it that) And as noted/stated, if he *did* some how lose, back then inauguration was not until the following March. Plenty of time to do everything in his power possible to go all out. Kinda pointless I think it would be for Little Mac to make peace with an enemy who was for all practical purposes beaten

Little Mac was a War Dem anyway as well known, so I doubt he'd throw up his hands and say "war's over baby" if the CSA was even a month away from total surrender.

TFSmith121 · Jun 10, 2015

Well, chose a point of departure

Juan de Mariana said:
Well, I think that the scenario when Lincoln loses the presidential election of 1864 is perfectly possible, given a different development of the war. There are many possible PODs that allow the Confederate States to have more territory in 1864 than IOTL.

Well, chose a point of departure; some are slightly more likely than others, but the reality is, given better than 3-1 odds in population on M Day in April, 1861, it's pretty much an impossibility for the rebellion to succeed, absent extraterrestrial chiroptera the size of Everest...

Best,