WI: No "no-fly zones" in Iraq after Gulf War?

See title. I know that in the north the no-fly zone basically allowed the Kurds in those areas to do whatever, but beyond that I dunno.

Ismailov said:

See title. I know that in the north the no-fly zone basically allowed the Kurds in those areas to do whatever, but beyond that I dunno.

Click to expand...

I might not have a job. (My bosses are Kurds who left Iraq after Provide Comfort.)
The USAF would have less of an emphasis on ethics, and might have problems with coordination and tracking of aerial assets, since they would not have to deal with a major accidental shootdown.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Black_Hawk_shootdown_incident
One good thing would happen- Al-Quaida's Iraq-based offshoot wouldn't be able to operate. (OTL they were taken out by US forces and Peshmerga not long after Gulf War II began.) Of course, Mullah Krekar might be doing nasty things from Norway...

I'd be particularly interested in what Iraq would do in-re Kurdish areas.

Would Iraq still have same image in US as OTL. OTL constant flying and bombing, not to mention occasional increased campaigns kept Iraq in the news and in people's minds constantly. Plus it created an impression of unfinished business, "we failed to finish the job in 1991 so now we are stuck with this" making it easier to sell 03 invasion.

If there are no NFZ US would likely draw down it's presence. OK, USN would still have a carrier in Gulf but if there is less presence in Saudi or if there is none and forces needed to "keep an eye on Iraq" are shifted to Turkey how does that effect Al Qaida? Sure, OBL had problems with Saudis inviting US in but if US leaves after the war his essage might just fizzle out.

There might be more paranoia over Iraq producing WMDs or rearming in other ways than OTL. Without the no-fly zones to be able to bomb targets when Saddam refused to cooperate with Western officials, there may be a war sooner than expected to remove him completely from power. There would be also less diplomatic success with the West because there is no leverage to use over Saddam if he refuses to cooperate.

9/11 still occurs because the US has military bases in Saudi Arabia regardless.

First and last bump.