A Different Roll of the Dice

Chapter 1: 1756 (with Summary)
A Different Roll of the Dice

In our study of multi-verse physics today, we will consider how the narrowing down to a single event causes a branching of the timelines into parallel universes of two different paths of; diverging at a single point of departure. While the quantum physicists will go on at length about specific particles blinking in and out of existing or spinning one way or another as the true PODs of a branching event, we time-stream observing historians prefer to narrow it down into a more concrete and tangible event.

Individual time-stream researchers often enjoy fixating on a particular event, such as the death or survival of a famous figure. Others come down to a far more mundane POD such as the thing that caused the death or survival of some person or another. These include things like a projectile landing in a different spot due to the chaotic component of wind pattern formuli, or simply some individual making a different choice, or even down to the example of a random coin toss landing a different way. Not so surprisingly these more random events tend to propagate a more random pathing from the POD, than ones based on one individual’s choice, which are theorized to be more bound. We are not sure why this is yet, hence our continued study of these time streams.

One such case study that I present for your perusal, has had its POD narrowed down to one such random event, though not a coin toss, but the outcome of a roll of dice, which had a drastic effect on the forthcoming branching time-stream paths.

Meet Gerard Lafontaine. He was a French gunner seaman assigned to a Ship of the Line in the port of Toulon. Time-stream observations against the original timeline has revealed he was robbed and murdered in an ally one night during May, 1756, after having won a fair amount of money on a game of craps and then getting rather drunk in celebration. The dice outcome of this game of craps is the determined POD.

So in this case-study of an alternate timeline, Gerard, in fact lost, which was actually a good thing for him. Without any winnings he did not get himself and his fellow sailor friends drunk and then get stabbed by a cut-purse in a back ally while relieving himself. This means no group of drunken French sailors returning from leave the following morning, and an intact, Gerard was among them.

Well if Gerard lost, then who won? Meet Pieter Zolensky, a Russian sailor crewed to a merchant ship which was also at anchor in the city. Pieter was a much larger, and more well-built man than Gerard, and didn’t have the drinking problem that Gerard did. A strong sober Russian merchant sailor, who didn’t wander drunkenly into a dark alley to relieve himself was deemed too risky of a target for our would-be cut-purse. Furthermore, Pieter opted to save his winnings rather that spend them on several round of drinks for it enabled him to have enough money to voyage back towards the Black Sea so he could return home. Time-stream observations on the original timeline, reveal that Pieter never made it home, but instead died of a fever about a six months later in an Egyptian port.

What of our would-be cut-purse? Meet Jean Lefeuvre. In our original timeline, he was caught and hanged for the murder of Gerard Lafontaine one month later. In this time-stream, it was determined that he stuck around Toulon for a few more months before he finally fled the city after committing some other crime and headed toward Paris.

Those none of these men were notable in the annals of history, the ripples produced from them on the eve of the Seven Years war, all set in motion from the outcome of a different roll of the dice, would have a dramatic impact on the outcome of a history to come. Join me as I trace these patterns and review a history that could have been.

May 20th, 1756.

The Battle of Minorca

In only a short time, the most dramatic change of events occurred regarding the forthcoming war. Gerard, a gunner aboard a French vessel involved in the conflict, was in fact, rather talented at his job, whose actions shined during the battle. The two fleets faced off in a line, 12 ships of the line and 5 frigates for the English led by Admiral John Byng and 12 ships of the line and 7 frigates for the French led by Marquis de la Galissonnière.

The fleets line up against each other much like in our own history. Though a combination of luck and skill, a well-placed shot by Gunner Gerard during the first few initial exchanges of volleys into the powder store resulted in the destruction of the HMS Buckingham and the deaths of all hands on board, including rear admiral Temple West. Debris from the Buckingham’s destruction, caused additional damage to the already damaged HMS Lancaster and HMS Captain.

Emboldened by this early stroke of luck the French pressed the attack harder, resulting in a heavier amount of damage inflicted, and by the end of the next set of volleys, nearly 3/4ths of the English ships were damaged, with one outright sunk, compared to less than 1/4th of the French fleet damaged. Admiral Byng, whose rear ships were still out of cannon range, and seeing no hope of relieving the Minorca garrison, began a retreat with the French in pursuit.

In an attempt to render aid to some of the crippled British ships, the HMS Dolphin herself became crippled from heavy French fire, though she bought some time that was needed for the rest of the English fleet to retreat. Too crippled to keep up with the retreating English ships and at risk of sinking, Admiral Byng was forced to abandon the rescue attempt of the HMS Dolphin as the French were closing in pursuit, despite several English souls still being on board or in the water, as to be testified to later by other British officers.

Other British captains noticed however that the French were in fact faltering in their pursuit. Perhaps this was out of a desire to not take on too much more damage, nor wishing to pursue the English all the way to Gibraltar. The French also knew they still had to lend support to the capture of Ft. St. Phillip on the island of Minorca, which finally fell on July 1st, 1756.

The Fate of the Dolphin thus became unknown to the retreating English fleet at the time. Its last reported sighting in Admiral Byng’s logs was that it was still afloat, but presumed sinking, with French ships in the vicinity. The actual fate of the HMS Dolphin was its capture by the French forces, where it was kept afloat long enough to be towed back to Toulon for repairs, destined to play another role later in the war.


Battle Results:

Fall of Minorca to the French.

British Fleet:
Loss of HMS Buckingham, and HMS Dolphin
Three-quarters of the fleet damaged.
875 killed, 333 wounded, 55 taken prisoner (from the Dolphin).
Notable deaths included, Rear Admiral Temple West, Commander Benjamin Marlow, and a young Arthur Phillip, all KIA.

French Fleet:
Capture of HMS Dolphin
Less than One-quarter of Fleet damaged.
98 killed, 232 wounded.

Siege of Fort Saint Philip and the 2nd Battle of Minorca

Repair of British ship at Gibraltar had delayed Sir Edward Hawke, who had replaced Admiral Byng, from departing for a second attempt to relieve Minorca. In haste however, Sir Edward too had left with ships that were serviceable, but still damaged from the previous battle. He arrived too late however as the fort had surrendered on July 1st. However the French fleet had not yet fully retreated to Toulon and he engaged the French in open waters, for the 2nd Battle of Minorca, on the morning of July 2nd, 1756.

The weather, while at first favoring neither side, began to disfavor the British fleet. The French, however did not want to be caught in another engagement, and had intended to retreat to Toulon, but could not do so before an exchange of fire was had between the fleets.

Sir Edward kept the ships that were still damaged from the previous battle toward the rear. The French too had kept their damaged ships protected, so the exchange occurred between fresher ships, the French however had more undamaged ships than the British.

Sir Edward took damage to two of his lead ships during the offensive exchange for only one of the French, when the weather began to turn against him. As a result of this Sir Edward adopted a more defensive stance. The French, rather than press their advantage, opted to retreat back to Toulon.

Sir Edward noted in his logs that there was no sign of the HMS Dolphin flying under a French flag. (Because the French had towed it to Toulon already) He turned his attentions toward Minorca, but upon arriving and being shot at by Fort Saint Phillips cannons, now under French control, he concluded he did not have enough troops available to retake the island. The additional damage suffered in the engagement with the French, and a desire to finish the incomplete repairs from the prior battle, caused Sir Edward to decide to turn back toward Gibraltar. He later gave evidence against Byng regarding Minorca, and was himself criticized himself for not blockading Minorca or Toulon.

Siege of Fort St. Phillip, Battle Results:
15,000 French troops besieged 2800 British troops.

French capture of the fort. 750 dead, 2600 wounded.

British surrender, 450 dead. Survivors allowed to be shipped home back to Britain.

2nd Battle of Minorca, Battle Results:
Indecisive

British Fleet:
Two ships damaged
47 dead, 75 wounded.

French Fleet:
One ship damaged
15 dead, 38 wounded.

Some Things Still Stay the Same

The ripples in time can be strange things. In many cases they tend to self-correct among agents of change (we humans) as we tend to stick to routines and often make the same decisions for the same reasons, when no strongly obvious parameters have been altered. While bumps and missteps might have the drastic effect on small nudges on things like sperm meeting egg, these are things that take years to notice as deviations from the original. In the near-term it is the presence or absence of persons in their paths of life where the greatest ripples can often be found.

So now, our three initial agents of change Gerard, Pieter, and Jean, produce ripples through out where they travel. Gerard’s presence has already had his first effect on the French Mediterranean Fleet and even up the command structures as battle reports make their way to Paris. Pieter’s presence and ripples through over the next few months are mostly confined to the merchant ship he is working on as it travels to the black sea, but makes small ripples at each port visited on the way. Jean’s presence for the next five months generates ripples all about southern France, more so once past the date of his original hanging had the dice roll not been different.

Invasion of Saxony

Despite several months having gone by, none of these major ripples however had yet made it to the place that in our timeline would become known as Germany, so one Fredrick II, King of Prussia, continues on with his plans for invading Saxony and kicks off the opening land battle of what we had called the Seven Years War, at the same time and place as we are familiar with.

Fredrick invaded Saxony on 29 August 1756, and besieged Pima, after fighting off Austrian forces at the Battle of Lobositz and preventing them from reinforcing Saxony resulting in the surrender of 18,000 troops and the capitulation of Saxony on October 14, 1756.

As the year of 1756 drew to a close, and the year 1757 began; the ripples had well permeated most of Southwestern and South Central Europe, the Mediterranean and was continuing to expand outward. Furthermore, larger ripples from our three initial agents of change were soon to make even larger impacts on the timeline.

Pieter had finally reaches the port of Azov, and was home before the winter. His specific role in this tale comes to an end. He lived the harsh life of a dockworker, if you cared to know. It is a better outcome than dying young from a fever. He did still die of a fever, but not until many years later after he married and fathered children. What is important though, later in this tale, is not him per-say, but the indirect ripples that began to permeate across Russia and the surrounding areas originating from Azov, from his continued existence.

Our agent of change, Jean, meanwhile had reached Paris by winter, bringing his ripples through time with him, for a dramatic change to the heart of the French court at the start of the new year.

TL Summary 1756:
January 16 – Treaty of Westminster signed between Great Britain and Prussia guaranteeing the neutrality of the German province of Hanover controlled by King George II of Great Britain. Despite British attempts to convince them otherwise, the Dutch Republic declares its neutrality.

March 11, Nine Years' War: HMS Warwick Captured by France

April 12 – Nine Years' War: The French invade Minorca, at this time under British control.

May 8, Nine Years' War – French and Indian War: Raid on Lunenburg
Sometime in Mid-May - A game of craps has a different outcome [POD]
May 18 – Nine Years' War: The Nine Years' War formally begins when Great Britain declares war on France.
May 20 – Nine Years' War – Battle of Minorca: The British fleet under John Byng is defeated by the French under Roland-Michel Barrin de La Galissonière. HMS Buckingham is sunk with all hands, and HMS Dolphin is captured by the French.

June 12 – Nine Years’ War: British capture the French ship Arc-En-Ciel off Nova Scotia
June 20 – A garrison of the British Army in India is imprisoned in the Black Hole of Calcutta.
June 25 – The Marine Society is founded in London, the world's oldest seafarers' charity.

July 1st – Nine Years' War – Siege of Fort St Philip at Port Mahon: The British garrison in Minorca surrenders to the French after two months, 2 days' siege by Armand de Vignerot du Plessis.
July 2nd – Nine Years War – 2nd Battle of Minorca British Fleet under Sir Edward Hawke fights an indecisive battle with the French under Roland-Michel Barrin de La Galissonière. The French Fleet flee to Toulon while the British fleet returns to Gibraltar. Minorca remains under French control.
July 30 – Bartolomeo Rastrelli presents the newly built Catherine Palace to Empress Elizabeth and her courtiers.

August 14 – Nine Years' War – French and Indian War: Fort Oswego falls to the French.
August 29 – Frederick II of Prussia invades Saxony, beginning the Nine Years' War on the continent.

October 1 – Nine Years' War – Battle of Lobositz: Frederick defeats an Austrian army under Marshal Maximilian Ulysses Count Browne.
October 14 – An Agreement of Friendship and Trade is signed by the Sultan Osman III and the King Frederick V. Denmark has appointed an extraordinary representative to the Ottoman Empire.

December – Nine Years' War – French and Indian War: Militias of the Royal Colony of North Carolina build a fort on the province's western frontier to protect it against natives allied with the French. The fort is named Fort Dobbs

Occurred mostly just like OTL
Occurred differently from OTL
Completely New Event for TTL
 
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Chapter 2: 1757 part 1
The Year 1757:

Gerard Lafontaine continued his duties as a French sailor and gunner, still crewed to a French ship in the Mediterranean fleet. Various communiques among the French navy continued on as usual, a small bump here and there from these minor ripples resulted in some orders arriving sooner or later than usual. One such occurrence would bring the ripples of our point of departure clear across the Atlantic to Caribbean.

Leeward Islands Campaign

The greater success of Minorca swayed a few decisions regarding French naval deployments, which included dispatching a small Atlantic fleet, along with French troops to the French West Indies with orders for offensive and defensive actions. They were set to arrive at the end of the hurricane season in December of 1756, and by January were staged for an offensive against the British held islands. Antigua although desirable was deemed an improbable success due to its seat for the Royal Navy’s Caribbean fleet. The British fleet however would be drawn out in defense, when one portion of the French forces raided and sacked the island of Barbuda. When reports of the attack came in, the British fleet would arrive to discover the French had already departed from the island. In the meantime, the other portion of the French fleet attacked and captured the island of Nevis on New Year’s Day. Significant damage was done to Charlestown and Fort St. Charles surrendered quickly; its cannons and those from other forts on the island were taken and used in the subsequent Siege of Brimstone Hill on St. Kitts on January 4th.

The diversionary French forces that had raided Barbuda had rejoined the rest of the French fleet off of St. Kitts, and assisted in defending and supporting the French forces. By the time British Commodore Thomas Frankland had arrived with the British fleet, Brimstone Hill was well under siege, as he faced off against the well anchored French fleet, on January 11th.

At the Battle of St. Kitts, the French fleet contained the 74 gun ship the Prudent, as well as the Frigates, Atalante, Zephyr, the ex-British ship the Warwick, and several other frigates and ships of the line. Frankland, commanding the British fleet from the HMS Winchester, was ultimately unsuccessful in driving off the French fleet. However during the course of the battle he did succeed in doing enough damage to the Warwick to drive it aground. After the battle, the French assessed the wreck to be unrepairable, and ended up removing cannon from the Warwick and adding it to the ongoing Siege of Brimstone hill. The French then broke up the Warwick to use its timbers in repairing damage to the French fleet that was sustained in the battle, and burnt what remained.

Brimstone Hill finally fell to the French on January 31st, 1757 when the defenders surrendered with the honors of war and Commodore Frankland was forced to acknowledge French occupation of St. Kitts and Nevis. After the fall of Fort St. Charles on Nevis, and again following the capture of St. Kitts, many British subjects and families on the islands were allowed to evacuate if they desired. The majority of these persons ended up fleeing to the Bahamas while a few others took flight to Jamaica.

Oh.. and lest I forget… for the astute among you, what might that mean for a young adulterous woman ripe with child from Charlestown named Rachel Faucette and her lover, unexpectedly displaced from their homes by the fortunes of war? I’ll let you contemplate that before we come back to that important point in our future discussions.

Battle Results:

French Fleet:
Less than half the fleet damaged, Warwick ran aground and scuttled.
48 killed, 197 wounded.

British Fleet:
Nearly two-thirds of the fleet damaged
65 killed, 218 wounded.

French Victory: Fall of St. Kitts and Nevis to France.


Meanwhile, back in Europe…

Let us return to one of our agents of change, Jean Lefeuvre. It was on one cold January 5th afternoon of 1757 that he bumped into another individual while out walking. It was seemingly nothing spectacular; the bumped man merely dropped his pen knife in the dirty street, picked it back up and went on his way. Jean meanwhile, a mere few days later resumed his criminal tendencies and attempted to mug a civilian. This occurrence of thievery however did not turn out so well for him, as his intended victim got the better of him, and stabbed him with his own knife, and left poor Jean to bleed to death in an alley.

The Attack on King Louis the XV

Speaking of stabbing, the grumpy man that Jean bumped into a few days earlier before he died was one Robert-François Damiens. Later that very evening, on January 5th, 1757, at the Palace of Versailles, Damiens stabbed King Louis the XV with the same dirty pen knife which he had fished out of the street that afternoon. The wound was minor and decidedly non-fatal, but the king, worried of poison, called for a confessor. There was no poison on the blade, but within two days it soon became apparent that the wound was unclean as a large boil began to form. The festering infection continued, despite doctor’s unsuccessful attempts to drain it, and more boils appeared. The King got progressively more ill over the next few weeks. In the meantime Robert Damiens was tortured and imprisoned.

Despite her attempts, Madame de Pompadour calls for the dismissal of Jean-Baptiste de Machault d'Arnouville and Marc-Pierre de Voyer de Paulmy d'Argenson went unheeded. The King was too busy being ill and conversing privately with his son Louis, the Dauphin of France, in between periods in which he was attended to by his doctors. At the time, the doctors knew King Louis did not have consumption or pox. Some still thought the illness came from poison, while others dismissed that idea. Most thought it was not contagious and it wasn’t, but great precautions were taken anyway during the King and the Dauphin’s interactions. King Louis’ mind stayed sharp to the end before the infection finally took him on February 2nd, 1757. Robert Damiens was executed by dismemberment the following day.

The Dauphin was crowned as King Louis the XVI less than one month later on March 1st, 1757. Out of respect of his father’s wished, Madame de Pompadour was given a small quiet country estate far away from the court. Louis the XV’s other mistresses were evicted from the palace as well, though they got far less compensation.

The French Court under King Louis XVI

After his attack and prior to his death, King Louis the XV imparted as much advice and political knowledge as he could to his son before his passing. Louis XVI took much of this to heed, but still had his own ideas to implement.

Somewhere along the way, a rumor had started that the British were behind the assassination of King Louis the XV. Anyone with a modicum of sense would know that this notion was absurd. However, it rallied the people against the British during the war, and whatever aid it provided to the recruitment of soldiers and their morale was welcome to the new king, so he made no move to contest or suppress the rumors.

The new king himself had always been a fervent student of the military arts, and numerous other disciplines. He was studious, well-educated, conservative and devout. He had inherited not just the crown, but a war that would be important for the future of France, and a mess of a bureaucracy in Paris, and he took it all seriously. One of the first acts he did, was reign in the expenses of the French court, canceled all the extravagant parties and balls, and sold off frivolous and unnecessary assets, turning the running of the palace into a frugal affair.

Comte d'Arnouville continued to counsel against the alliance Austria as he had done so previously with Louis XV when his advice was ignored. Although his advice was not ignored, Louis XVI could see no feasible or prudent way of disentangling themselves with Austria, nor did he entirely agree with the matter. The issue was not helped by his wife, Maria Josepha of Saxony, (which had recently fallen to Prussia) and her familial ties to Austria through her mother who argued for continued or even strengthened ties to Austria, and the influence of the Devots who supported alliance with the catholic Habsburgs against protestant influences. Thus, the alliance with Austria remained in place. But as for his advice on matters of taxation, the Louis listened more closely, as Comte d’Arnouville would again attempt to bring about reform. Louis’s piety, and again, the influence of the Devots, defeated any attempt for this reform to emplace taxes upon the church, but in exchange for the retention of their privilege, the church supported the taxation against the nobles and a few other sources. However, the tax was not as high as Comte d’Arnouville desired. Alone it was not enough to completely offset the borrowing that had to be continued, but it was enough, combined with other revenue, to let France carry on in the financing of the war.

Other means of finance would still be required, and several plans were prepared ranging from capture of Hanover and selling or trading it back to Britain, capture of the profitable sugar islands of the West Indies, and even pursuit of new plantation income sources in North Africa and the Mediterranean.

Military conquests were not the only area of pursuit in trimming finances. Louis XVI himself has seen examples of the Army’s inefficiencies, its bloat of officers, whose pay drained coffers, its non-permanent nature, dualistic command structure were all impediments to be overcome, as was finding a minister skilled enough to take on the task while navigating the bureaucracy of Paris.

Despite her removal from the court, Madame Pompadour still had many friends there, with whom she continued to communicate. Several plans which had already been in motion, and continued through the use of letters, would have an impact on things to come during the year. One of such, which was also one of the last things King Louis XV approved before his passing, was the transfer of Étienne François, duc de Choiseul from Rome to Vienna.

Leeward Islands Campaign, Part II

By late March, London had received word of the French attack on St Kitts, Nevis, and Barbuda. As Commodore Thomas Frankland was already in disfavor among his superiors, it only added more reasons for them to replace him and sent Commodore John Moore out with a British Fleet to retake the lost islands.

However it would not be until early May that Commodore Moore and the new fleet would arrive in the West Indies.

In the meantime, the slightly larger French fleet had repaired most of their lesser damage and re-staged to attempt to take on the damaged British fleet at Antigua. On February 15th, the French Fleet was met by the British and Commodore Frankland off English Harbor.

Battle of Antigua

The two fleets formed the battle lines, and proceeding to duke it out rather heavily. However French attempts to land troops on the island were thwarted by a heavy barrage that left a troop and artillery ship badly listing. Through a combination of tenacity, luck and favorable weather, Commodore Frankland drove off the French assault. The battle took a fierce toll however on both sides, while no Ships of the Line were lost, the British lost 2 Frigates for 2 French Frigates plus two French support ships. The artillery ship was captured but beyond repair, and the British were able a save a few pieces to reinforce the defenses of Antigua. With the winds and tides against them and the loss of important support, the French abandon their invasion attempt and limped back to Guadalupe and Martinique to repair and refit.

Battle Results:

French Fleet:
3/4th of the Fleet damaged (including remaining prior damage)
2 Frigates and 2 support ships sunk or captured.
897 killed, 912 wounded.

British Fleet:
3/4th of the Fleet damaged (including remaining prior damage)
2 Frigates lost.
587 killed, 773 wounded.

British Victory: Repulsion of French invasion attempt

Execution of Admiral John Byng

The ripples from the altered battle of Minorca of course followed the British fleet back to Gibraltar, far more sailors had died or were captured than in the timeline we known. The ripples followed Admiral Byng home to England as well as he was called just as before to explain himself regarding the shocking loss of Fort St. Phillip and Minorca, and two British ships. The outrage was even more furious than what could have been, and this only served to accelerate the court-martial. The findings were the same though; Admiral Byng was acquitted of cowardice but convicted of ‘failing to do his utmost’ against the French. He was executed by firing squad on March 10th, 1757

Battle of Reichenberg

The ripples in time, major and minor had by this point fully encompassed all of continental Europe and the British Isles. They made themselves felt again during the Battle of Reichenberg.

On April 20th, near the city of Reichenberg in Bohemia; Prussian forces under the command of Marshal von Bevern clashed with Austrian forces led by Count Christian Moritz von Koenigsegg. 16,000 Prussian troops faced off against 10,500 Austrian soldiers, amidst fierce fighting however Marshal von Bevern is struck by shrapnel. Though grievously injured, he maintains his command and leads his forces to victory against the Austrians. He would succumb to his wounds three days later.

The Second Treaty of Versailles

On May 1st, France and Austria agreed to the Second Treaty of Versailles, which called for France’s assistance in the defeat of Prussia and Austria regaining Silesia in exchange for a French client state over the Austrian Netherlands. They also prepared agreements for the partition of Prussia between France, Austria, Saxony, Sweden and Russia, and financial subsidies from France to Austria continued.

French troops, immediately afterwards began sharing the garrison of the Austrian Netherlands with existing Austrian forces, thereby freeing up some of the Austrian garrisons to head eastwards to attack Prussia, and greatly alarming the British and Dutch.

Étienne François, duc de Choiseul, who was instrumental as one of the principal authors of the treaty, greatly impressed King Louis XVI with his service. His support of Austrian the alliance also gained him favor with the Devots, who continued to influence the King. Louis XVI, which careful consideration and advice, though that he may have found the proper minister able to handle both the bureaucracy of Paris, and institute additional military reforms, and invited him to return to Versailles. Choiseul obliged and on June 25th, 1757, replaced the aging Antoine Louis Rouillé as Foreign Minister of France.

Capitulation of the Canton of Neuchatel

In 1708 the mostly Protestant residents of Neuchatel ignored the claimants brought forward by the Catholic King Louis the XIV in favor of King Fredrick of Prussia, a Protestant who would leave them mostly to their own affairs. Now Neuchatel, considered a part of Prussia, with whom France was now at war, caught her ire. A sizeable force was raised to be able to take the Canton and was mustered at the border. However parley and diplomacy prevailed, upon the invitation of Swiss mediators. Overall Louis XVI and his Catholic supporters had little desire to absorb a province full of Protestants, but they also wanted to dismantle every part of Prussia no matter how small.

On April 27th, 1757, the Canton of Neuchatel capitulated without conflict in the face of superior French forces, in exchange for generous terms of self-governance and the promise of no persecution. France’s real goal however; was to offer the Canton up as collateral in exchange for securing Swiss loans and its transfer to Switzerland at the wars end should Prussia lose.

Battle and Siege of Prague

Fredrick II spent the winter planning his next campaign and soon took aim on Austria. On May 5th, 1757, he boldly attacked the Austrians near Prague in a goal to subsequently seize the city. 67,000 Prussia troops faced off against 60,000 Austrian soldiers. At the battle’s conclusion Fredrick was victorious but at precious cost to his men.

Battle Results:
Prussia: 15,000 killed or wounded.
Austria: 11,500 killed or wounded, 4000 captured.

Prussian tactical victory, Austrian strategic victory.

Without enough men to assault the walls of Prague, Fredrick settled into a siege of the city that would last for several weeks.

Leeward Islands Campaign, Part III

Commodore John Moore arrived with the British Fleet in Antigua on May 6th, 1757 on the HMS Cambridge along with 7 other ships of line, numerous frigates and support ships and a force of marines to retake the islands and capture other French Possessions. While Moore commended Frankland’s defense of Antigua a few months prior, the two men did not get along. The previous engagements between the British and French fleets had reduced the French strength advantage which had resulted in no further offensive attempts. Now with a reinforced fleet, British had the superior forces and began a re-conquest of St. Kitts and Nevis.

Second Battle of St. Kitts

On May 15th, The French now found themselves in a reversed position from earlier in the year. However having anticipated this, they had well stocked Brimstone Hill, repaired many of the breaches and reinforced against the same approach they had used to take the fort.

Nevis, like before, was recaptured quickly by the British a couple days before. The French had left the forts there in poor condition and the numerous removed cannons had not been replaced. Brimstone Hill however, despite its damage from the prior French attack, was more garrisoned, and more gunned and proved far more difficult to attack, so after a failed initial assault, the British forces settled into a long protracted siege. The French hold out for a little over three months hoping reinforcements would arrive before supplies were exhausted. When no relief came, they finally surrendered to the British on August 20th, 1757.

French Naval forces though, did not fare as well against the strengthened British Fleet. As the two fleets lined up and clashed off the coast of the island, the French were forced to retreat after the loss of two vessels and the capture of a third for only one British ship sunk.

Battle Results: 1st Assault on Brimstone Hill
British: 587 dead, 754 wounded.
French: 147 dead, 334 wounded.
French Victory: French forces repel British attempt to retake the fortress by force.

Battle Results: 2nd Battle of St. Kitts
British: Half the Fleet damaged, loss of the HMS Revenge (70 gun)
496 Killed, 670 wounded.
French: 2/3rd of the Fleet damaged, loss of the Zephyr (frigate) & Alcyon (50 gun), capture of the Lion (64 gun)
711 Killed, 840 wounded.

British Victory: French fleet driven off, Siege of St. Kitts maintained.

Battle Results: 2nd Siege of Brimstone Hill
British: 208 dead or wounded (disease and environment)
French: 124 dead or wounded (disease, hunger and environment)
British Victory: French surrendered with the honors of war.

Continued Conflict in the Maritimes

Very few ripples of significance had made it to the North American continent, though that would change as the British and the French rearrange their fleet deployments around the globe in the reaction to various world events.

For now the struggle between the French and their Native allies against the British and the Colonials continued much as we know them from our own history. The more militant French Acadians, (those not yet deported) maintained raids against British settlers and forts in the Maritimes in coordination with the Mi’kmaq and others in the Wabinaki conferderacy.

A Return to the Continent

The Treaty of Versailles brought a storm into the European continent more potent that before, and France, Austria, Russia, and soon Sweden start making their moves for conflict with Prussia. Austria and Prussia, already at blows enter round two over the control of Bohemia.

Battle of Kolin

Fredrick II was besieging Prague when he got word of the approach of an Austrian army under Leopold Josef, Count Von Daun between 44,000 to 65,000 strong. Von Daun knew Fredrick could not keep him away from Prague while besieging it at the same, time, so he expected an attack. Von Daun made his defenses among the hills around Kolin, awaiting the inevitable attack.

Fredrick obliged, attacking with a force of 30,000 soldiers, but things did not go quite as he desired. Under harassment from the enemy forces some elements attacked too early. While Fredrick spotted this and redeployed, it was too late to prevent much of the quagmire that followed. Von Daun noticed as well, took advantage and drove the Prussian forces into a hasty retreat. The Prussian retreat came close to a rout under Austrian pursuit; had not the Prussian heavy cavalry led by Wilhelm von Seyditz not forced an end to the Austrian pursuit.

By the battles end, with far too many casualties, Fredrick was forced to abandon the Siege of Prague and withdraw from Bohemia altogether.

Battle Results:
Prussian Forces: 15,000 dead or wounded
Austrian Forces: 8,500 dead or wounded.
Austrian Victory: Prussia forced to withdraw from Bohemia.

The War in India

Much like on the North American Continent by this time, very few time ripples of significance had managed to reach India. The goals of the British East India company remained the same as did the players and the forces available to them.

Colonel Robert Clive, seized the French fort at Chandernagar, as part of actions to remove the influence of the French East India company in favor of the British. Nawab Siraj-ud-Daulah of Bengal, who didn’t want the British extending their influence and fortification even further, met the British in battle near Plassey.

On June 23, the British won the day, and with, influence over the important province of Bengal. This would lead to even more British control over the Indian subcontinent, at the expenses of other foreign holdings such as the French and Dutch in other locations near to India. The small British force of just over 3000 defeated the larger India Force of 62,000.

Battle of Plassey
British forces: Less than 100 dead or wounded
Muhgal Empire forces: 500 dead or wounded
British Victory: French influence over Bengal replaced with British influence.
 
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Thanks for the feedback and praise, but no comments on what's unfolding?

Believable? Not believable? What do you think is likely to happen next and why?

(Ia already have most of the rest of 1757 fleshed out, but from beyond that much is up for debate and suggestion. Though I've already given a fair hint that the Sevens years war lasts a couple years longer)
 
is it possible for someone to cross over to the Anglo-Prussian side? since France like this seems just too powerful and it doesn't look like Prussia can hold out very long.
 
Denmark just might be able to be convinced to join up, with liberal bribes ... securing Scheswig-Holstein and Lauenburg in North Germany might be one (changing them from being in personal union with Denmark, to be folded into Denmark as part of the same crown), regaining Scania might be another ... gaining Swedish Prommeria might be yet another.

An Anglo-Danish cooperational fleet would be strong enough to shut down any prospects of Sweden getting to frisky, and likely stop short French attempts at sending support that way around
 
Denmark just might be able to be convinced to join up, with liberal bribes ... securing Scheswig-Holstein and Lauenburg in North Germany might be one (changing them from being in personal union with Denmark, to be folded into Denmark as part of the same crown), regaining Scania might be another ... gaining Swedish Prommeria might be yet another.

An Anglo-Danish cooperational fleet would be strong enough to shut down any prospects of Sweden getting to frisky, and likely stop short French attempts at sending support that way around

In OTL France was already paying Denmark to NOT join on Prussia's side.
 
In OTL France was already paying Denmark to NOT join on Prussia's side.

But Prussia and Britain might be able and willing to pay more for Denmark to join ... while hardly the strongest kid around the block military wise, they control some pretty important strategic areas, such as access to the Baltics, and their Navy are among the best in their 'tier' of nations, so they might well be the weight that tips the scales. Question is solely if Britain and (Specially) Prussia is willing to put enough on the table for Denmark to join up, having already mentioned some things that Denmark might be pursuaded by (incorperation of Scheswig-Holstein and Lauenburg into the danish realm, prehaps pulling them out of HRE and first rights to regaining land from Sweden if they are knocked out)
 
But Prussia and Britain might be able and willing to pay more for Denmark to join ... while hardly the strongest kid around the block military wise, they control some pretty important strategic areas, such as access to the Baltics, and their Navy are among the best in their 'tier' of nations, so they might well be the weight that tips the scales. Question is solely if Britain and (Specially) Prussia is willing to put enough on the table for Denmark to join up, having already mentioned some things that Denmark might be pursuaded by (incorperation of Scheswig-Holstein and Lauenburg into the danish realm, prehaps pulling them out of HRE and first rights to regaining land from Sweden if they are knocked out)

Well did some research here, and came to similar conclusions that others did years ago in this thread. Add to these reasons that Prussia was unlikely able to afford to pay Denmark to enter as they were already being subsidized by the British , so it would all be on Britain to persuade them. Denmark has little reason to enter the war, even if Brtain offered a big bribe, which they probably can't afford anyway.
 
the bribe don't need to involve money but 'merely' a willingness to push Denmarks cart on the issues they have with the duchies, getting an acceptence of sole danish ownership of said duchies (de facto disinheriting the Swedish and Russian pretenders) writen into an end treaty.

Or prehaps let the butterflies of Pieter Zolensky change the Russian prioities enough that Denmark considers the tentative argeement void.
 
Not believable. A small change at the battle of minorca leads to Prussia doing consistantly worse in every land engagement for the next year? Exactly why? How?

Also, magically competent Louis XVI making all the right moves is completely out of character for the Dauphine

There were some small adjustments to casualty numbers not in Prussia's favor yes. However none of the battle outcomes involving Prussia so far actually changed who the victor was as compared to OTL. If I wanted a really drastic change there I could have killed Fredrick off at Kolin.

Prussia captured Saxony just like OTL
Battle of Lobitz had a nearly identical outcome as OTL
Battle of Reichenberg, Prussia wins just like OTL (main difference if death of von Bevern)
Battle of Kolin, Prussia loses badly...just like OTL

How would you describe the character of the Dauphine? I definitely researched this but there was not a whole lot I could find. SO if you could point me to some more resources, I'd appreciate it. What I could find indicated he was conservative and religious. He hated his father's womanizing ways. HE was well educated and had a high interest in the military. He even got chastised by his father for wanting to be part of the campaigns during the war of Austrian succession as well as for visiting him while at his bedside (and thus risking the throne).

What were "all the right moves"? Why would it be out of character for the dauphin, upon ascending the throne, who didn't like his fathers womanizing ways, to have gotten rid of all his whores? Or to agree turn the palace more conservative. Note I said he turned the running of the Palace into a frugal affair (made much easier by the removal of Madame Pompadour and her extravagant spending), not the running of all of France.

A much more correct action would have been to make a larger tax on the nobles AND the church. What happened instead was less than a half measure, but it least it was better than nothing. Why is it out of character for him to actually listen to some of his advisers? some monarchs actually do that. Of course he is also still listening to the Devots, and that might be less than wise down the line. Nor is it much of a stretch for him to know what the problems in France are, though knowing and fixing are different things.

Main court changes:
Madam Pompadour and many of her cronies ousted. (and with it much excessive spending)
Retaining some ministers which were the direct result of Madam Pompadour getting the boot.
Actually getting a small tax passed (because of retained ministers above) as I stated this really isn't enough though. It will help keep France going though down the road for a little while longer.
Getting Choisel in on the 2nd treaty of Versailles (as OTL) and then foreign minister of France (much earlier than OTL) This can also be partly due to Madam Pompadour, despite being evicted, still having some influence in court (for now).

Its not a stretch for Louis and the advisers to know they still need more funds. The Canton was an easy safe target, in exchange for Swiss loans.

As for military reforms. Well not enough time has passed for them to have even start let alone have any effect yet, but they'll be coming along. However it might not be enough in time. Jury is still out on that.
 
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