WI: Kilwa Sultanate colonizes Australia?

Sycamore

Banned
First, a bit of background info- in 1944, a small number of copper coins with Arabic inscriptions were discovered on a beach in Jensen Bay on Marchinbar Island, part of the Wessel Islands of the Northern Territory of Australia. These coins were later identified as from the Kilwa Sultanate.

Only one such coin had ever previously been found outside east Africa (unearthed during an excavation in Oman). The inscriptions on the Jensen Bay coins identify a ruling Sultan of Kilwa from the 12th century (the 11th Sultan of the Shirazi era, Dawud ibn Suleiman). This discovery has been of interest to those historians and archaeologists who believe it likely that people made landfall in Australia or its offshore islands before the first generally accepted such discovery, by the Dutch sailor Willem Janszoon in 1606.

So, WI a permanent colonial settlement and/or trading post had been established in the Wessel Islands of Northern Australia by the Kilwa Sultanate, in the early- to mid-12th century? Could TTL's North Australia (OTL's Arnhem Land, and the Arafura Sea coastline) develop along the same lines as the Zanj coast of East Africa ITTL? Or would the early success of the Kilwa Sultanate's colony lead to its early conquest by another better placed power, and a subsequent early colonial rush for Australia by a whole host of South-East Asian nations and imperial kingdoms (for example, the Mahapajit, or even the Chinese)?
 

Sycamore

Banned
Isn't it more likely the coin was brought there by Malay people who had the coin from trading with Kilwa?

At first, one would assume so. But this would beg the question of why these particular Kilwan coins would have been brought there by Malay traders, from so far away? And why were these coins from far-away Kilwa the only coins which were present at the site?
 
Does Australia have its own cottage industry of psuedoarcheology, similar to how America has hoaxers putting Roman coins and Norse runestones and stuff with Hebrew lettering on them randomly into dig sites?
 

Sycamore

Banned
What's the incentive?

Trade? Land? One could also have argued that there wasn't much incentive to settle the Zanj Coast either, but they still did IOTL.

This, honestly. Australia is bumfuck nowhere and has no developed states with which to trade.

Is Australia really "in the middle of nowhere"? Not really. This tip of Northern Australia isn't any further from the long-established 'Spice Routes' than Mozambique and Sofala had been, prior to their establishment (after the POD) by the Kilwa Sultanate IOTL.

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As for the other point, about Australia having no developed states with which to trade- this could easily be an added incentive. The extent of the Kilwa Sultanate's control over the Zanj Coast was limited to the coast precisely because of the presence of developed states; in Sofala, and in other regions with developed states, the Kilwa Sultanate had to keep paying tribute for permission to reside and trade there, and these ports formally remained under the jurisdiction of the local kingdoms (serving as a framework for their later independence, in cases such as those of The Comoros, Pate, and Angoche, or facilitating their easy acquisition by the earliest European traders, as proved to be the case with Sofala, Mozambique and Quelimane).

In Northern Australia, they wouldn't have to worry about any established local powers who could pose a threat to their trading posts' and colonies' existence (at least, not until the rulers of the Moluccas, and elsewhere across the Indonesian archipelago, begin to take an interest themselves). There are plenty of established states to trade with, just across the Arafura Sea in the Moluccas. The seas are more than bountiful enough, and if they start to take a look around this region of Australia, they'll soon find plenty of natural mineral reserves which it'd be more than worthwhile to establish colonial settlements for. They could break the Indians' monopoly on the diamond trade, for instance- with easily accessible diamond mines productive enough to eclipse those of the Golconda Sultanate.
 

Sycamore

Banned
Does Australia have its own cottage industry of psuedoarcheology, similar to how America has hoaxers putting Roman coins and Norse runestones and stuff with Hebrew lettering on them randomly into dig sites?

Well, probably- but bear in mind that it took a long time for the Australian archaeologists to identify the (nine) arabic-inscripted coins as being from the Kilwa Sultanate. Not just years- several decades (the coins were unearthed in 1944, remember? And I somehow find it hard to believe that the cottage industry of Australian pseudoarcheology was already that well established at that time- even harder, to believe that Australian hoaxers in 1944, at the height of the White Australia Policy, would choose plant coins indicating that Arabs from Sub-Saharan Africa, of all people, discovered Australia first).

Unlike Roman coins, these coins were also extremely rare- besides this discovery, only a single other coin from the Sultanate of Kilwa has ever been found outside of east Africa, and that was on an excavation site in relatively nearby Oman. This is one of those occasions where there really isn't any rational basis for the conspiracy theory of 'hoaxers must be responsible, the evidence can't be real'. It's just inconceivable for this to have been orchestrated as an elaborate, multi-generation hoax.
 
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Trade? Land? One could also have argued that there wasn't much incentive to settle the Zanj Coast either, but they still did IOTL.

People didn't just send boatloads of settlers to random lands they happened across and established New X state here like a video game.

Did they need new lands so badly and so far a way that there would be some financial pay off? Were there easily available resources that were also easy to discover, and scarce at home ports, to also cause investors to spend their precious coins on a gamble rather than on reliable trade routes that had already made them fantastically wealthy?

Remember, Europe was largely isolated from the Asian trade networks, causing their maritime ventures. Kilwa was already a valuable middle player. Plus, East Africa had been a part of this trade network since antiquity, unlike Australia, so the comparison is pretty terrible in justifying a Kilwanian colonial empire.

Also the British only began settlement in order to have a secure port in which to project their power further into East Asia and the Pacific. They also had a convenient penal population that needed a new place to be shipped to with the loss of the States. So in conclusion the UK and Kilwa were in completely different places at their respective points of development when they could/did have the opportunity to exploit Australia.

Kilwa would have needed to have survived, grown in power as a main contender of Indian and Pacific Oceanic trade to ever have a need to colonize another continent. Don't mean to rain on your parade, but these things need to be considered when launching African and Asian polities into European-style maritime colonialism.
 
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Agreed. People didn't just send boatloads of settlers to random lands they happened across and established New X state here like a video game.

Did they need new lands so badly and so far a way that there would some financial pay off? Were there easily available resources that were also easy to discover, and scarce at home ports, to also cause investors to spend their precious coins on a gamble rather than on reliable trade routes that had already made them fantastically wealthy?

Remember, Europe was largely isolated from the Asian trade networks, causing there maritime ventures. Kilwa was already a valuable middle player. Plus, East Africa had been a part of this trade network since antiquity, unlike Australia, so the comparison is pretty terrible in justifying a Kilwanian colonial empire.

Also the British only began settlement in order to have a secure port in which to project their power further into East Asia and the Pacific. They also had a convenient penal population that needed a new place to be shipped to with the loss of the States. So in conclusion the UK and Kilwa were in completely different places at their respective points of development when they could/did have the opportunity to exploit Australia.

Kilwa would have needed to have survived, grown in power as a main contender of Indian and Pacific Ocean trade to ever have a need to colonize another continent. Don't mean to rain on your parade, but these things need to be considered when launching polities into European-style maritime colonialism.

And this as well. I will note that it is easier to sail down the coast to Sofala from Kilwa than it is to sail to Australia.

There are a number of prohibitive factors here. Firstly, Kilwa's Perso-Arabo-Swahili upper crust actually benefited from the existence of local kingdoms, because the Zanj, in addition to spices, was the prime locus for the Indian Ocean slave trade, which Kilwa and later Zanzibar grew off of. Local kingdoms spared Kilwa the administrative costs and allowed for a layered trade network, not unlike the small trade settlements that anchored the Mediterranean trade networks of the Italian city states.

Secondly, those coins were almost certainly deposited there by Malays. There may well have been other coins, but they were probably lost or used elsewhere; the location of the coins doesn't exactly sound like prime real estate. Malays and Indians came to Kilwa, and some Kilwans went to Malacca and the East Indies--they didn't need trade settlements because they were already part of a seamless network, unlike the Christian-Muslim competition in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Thirdly, the distance is totally prohibitive. They'd have to travel up the Horn, to Gujarat, down the Indian coast, up the Indian coast again or across to Aceh if they were capable, before going the length of the Indies to get to Northern Australia. Nothing in northern Australia is worth that kind of expenditure.

Fourthly, trade-motivated people don't tend to settle empty lands that are far away and require intense expenditure just to develop. Why did the VOC only settle 2,000 people from the Netherlands in South Africa over the course of their rule in the Cape? Why didn't the Spanish settle more deeply into North America? Why didn't the Dutch or Portuguese settle Australia before the late 18th century? Because they were there for spices and Christians, not land to settle. The largest settlements were those in New England and English North America. Why did so many Englishmen--including the English plurality in New Amsterdam--settle in the Americas? Because they were there, not to trade but to build a New Jerusalem and escape persecution. Without something overriding Kilwa's supposed profit motive, they have no reason to settle a place as forbidding as Australia. Trade requires locals to trade with--there's a reason Portugal went for Ceylon and Malacca.

Fifthly, if they actually wanted to settle (they didn't), there's either Madagascar or the Cape available, much closer when one factors in the fact that they can't sail in a straight line from Kilwa to Darwin.

Sixthly, there is also an assumption that the Kilwan state is centralized enough--or that the elites have an interest in--colonial exploration. The particularities of Europe's earliest missions were borne of European isolation and the specific European class and legal structures that required the resources of the Crown to go out into the great unknown. 13th century Kilwa is not going to have the resources of late-15th century Castille.

Seventh, competition. If, for some reason, Australia actually became a compelling place to settle (it wouldn't), then Kilwa is competing with not only maritime powers like the Chola but local powers like the Majapahit as well.

In short, without Europe's burgher class and the pressing issue of trade isolation and the aftermath of the crisis of the 14th century to compel them, there is no reason that the Kilwa Sultanate would have the means, resources, or, most importantly, need to go settle in northern Australia. Europeans were the ones that turned the Indian Ocean into a battleground for major competition; Kilwa, as a major node in a mostly-stable network, has no reason to go settle someplace that wouldn't even afford them greater access, to, say, the Moluccas.
 

Sycamore

Banned
Agreed. People didn't just send boatloads of settlers to random lands they happened across and established New X state here like a video game.

Did they need new lands so badly and so far a way that there would some financial pay off? Were there easily available resources that were also easy to discover, and scarce at home ports, to also cause investors to spend their precious coins on a gamble rather than on reliable trade routes that had already made them fantastically wealthy?

Remember, Europe was largely isolated from the Asian trade networks, causing there maritime ventures. Kilwa was already a valuable middle player. Plus, East Africa had been a part of this trade network since antiquity, unlike Australia, so the comparison is pretty terrible in justifying a Kilwanian colonial empire.

Also the British only began settlement in order to have a secure port in which to project their power further into East Asia and the Pacific. They also had a convenient penal population that needed a new place to be shipped to with the loss of the States. So in conclusion the UK and Kilwa were in completely different places at their respective points of development when they could/did have the opportunity to exploit Australia.

Kilwa would have needed to have survived, grown in power as a main contender of Indian and Pacific Ocean trade to ever have a need to colonize another continent. Don't mean to rain on your parade, but these things need to be considered when launching polities into European-style maritime colonialism.

No, they didn't really need new lands so badly and so far away. But there would have easily been some immediate financial pay-off- the spice trade revolved around the plantations on the Spice Islands of Maluku, where spice traders from across the region took residence in settlements, or in nearby enclaves, including Arab and Chinese traders who visited or lived in the region. The islands along the coast of Northern Australia would have been close enough to be counted as nearby enclaves- and it appears that Arab traders from the Kilwa Sultanate, who happened to be visiting the region, just happened to make landfall in Jensen Bay at this time.

All you need for this POD is for the Arab merchants from the Sultanate of Kilwa to make a relatively simple, easy human decision- to take residence on the island, and to establish a trading enclave of their own there, within close reach of the established reliable trade routes, but on a previously uninhabited island where there'd be no need to pay tribute for permission to reside and trade there to the local rulers, thereby markedly improving the profitability of their trade in the region- where they themselves could be the undisputed local rulers. I'm not suggesting a colonial expedition by the Kilwa sultanate itself- simply the establishment of a trade settlement, originally founded by traders who themselves happened to originate from the Kilwa Sultanate (the ones who presumedly deposited the coins).

Cloves, nutmeg and mace can all potentially be introduced and cultivated on plantations in the Wessel Islands and Tiwi Islands (which would be far easier and quicker than transporting the plants all the way back to the Zanj Coast to be introduced and cultivated there, as they did IOTL with great success). Also, there were indigenous spices which could also potentially become lucrative in an ATL- the Cape York Lily (Curcuma australasica, or, to use the natives' own word for it, kumbigi), is a unique variety of the ginger family, similar to turmeric, but with spectacular flowers, and its roots were already being roasted and eaten by the Aboriginal people in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

So, they could easily establish a trading network with the Aboriginals for those spices- and eventually, these new trading networks could enable those easily available resources that were also easy to discover, and scarce (non-existent) at home ports (specifically, the diamonds and the silver- I could mention the gold as well, but that wasn't exactly hard to find back at the home ports in South-East Africa) to be discovered and exploited in due course.
 
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