Please, help me decide which Italocentric TL to write!

Here I come with a little opinion poll on what Timeline I should work on. Unsurprisingly, they are all Italian-themed ones:

(a) Biondo era e bello e di gentile aspetto
(From Dante, Purgatorio, Canto III: "Blond was he, beautiful, and of noble aspect") Manfredi wins at Benevento (1266), the Hohenstaufen line survives in Sicily, and focuses on the Mediterranean rather than N.Italy or Germany.

(b) Aut Caesar aut Nihil
Cesare Borgia manages to marry Charlotte of Aragon and becomes, with French help, King of Naples. Will he manage to establish a dinasty and one day unite Italy?

(c) 'A reggina schetta
(The virgin queen)
Christina Vasa, the converted former Queen of Sweden successfully plots with Mazarin to be put on the throne of Naples. Can she raise the South of Italy from the depression of the XVII century and rule as an enlightened despot?

(d) For the love of my people, I sacrifice my honour
Eugène de Beauharnais accepts the offers the allied had made him before the fall of Napoleon and manages to keep hold of (most) of the Napoleonic Kingdom of italy. Can he and his successors unite Italy earlier and in a better way than the Savoy did iotl?

(a)
PROs
This is the most promising one in terms of the Utopia that could be created. The Hohenstaufens were protectors of the arts and the sciences, good administrators and tolerant of religious diversity (Manfredi himself translated books from hebrew and his most loyal soldiers were the Saracen archers that his father had transplanted in the city of Lucera). Preserving and expanding all this is a great objective. Besides, without the wars with Charles d'Anjou, the Byzanties might have some sort of revival...
The POD is simple as the battle of Benevento could rather easily have been won by Manfred, and after that he could come to an agreement with the Pope and Conradin.
CONs
This is also the most difficult to research, as I don't know almost anything about the Byzantines post-1204 (shame on me, I know!) and the changes on the HRE and Hungary would also be deep.
Also risks being cliches, there are several similar TLs or TL proposals.

(b)
PROs
Cesare Borgia kicking ass and being way more duplicitous and murderous than an ASOIF character is a plus obviously, as is keeping Naples independent in the XVIth century.
There is the remote possibility of having a way earlier Italian unification, which should be nice, and many great figures from the Renaissance can have roles in the TL.

CONs
POD is not so plausible, as probably, even if he claimed Naples iure uxoris he would be embroiled in a long and ultimately losing war with Aragon, or at best an easily discarded French puppet. Also it is open to debate how much Cesar was a capable, if ruthless rule, and how much he was a debauched and overambitious fool.

(c)
PROs
Again Christina is an awesome character for an uchronia imho, seriously, read the wiki page if you don't know her!
Naples in the XVII century is at its mostpictoresque mix of squalor and splendor, making it an independent Kingdom could do wonder to avoid her current underdeveloped state.
This would be a sort of spiritual successor to Masaniello's revolt in a sense, and this is another great plus.
I think this is a rather unexplored period for Italian Alternate Histories.

CONs
Very implausible, would need both French commitment and a Neapolitan revolt just to put her on the throne.
Her administrative skills in Sweden appeared to be rather lacking, this has to change if we want to improve Naple's situation.
She won't marry, so at her death the Kingdom will go to someone else, not of her blood (most likely a French prince).
It would be almost impossible to be anything more than a French puppet (still better than rule from absentee Spanish lords imho).

(d)
PROs
Would need little research, as I have already studied the period for "An Ausonian Tale".
Is closer to the modern day, so there are hopes to see it brought at least to the '900s, and we all love writing about industrialisation and colonial adventures, don't we?
Offers the opportunity to have Italian unification happen a couple decades earlier than OTL and imho with a better type of government and thus to have Italy become a (minor) Great Power.

CONs
Somewhat similar to "An Ausonian Tale".
POD (Survival of the Napoleonic kingdom of Italy) is far from probable int he atmosphere of the Restoration and would require significant "butterfly herding".
Eugene is a rather bland character.
It will be difficult to avoid the problems that afflict OTL's South Italy, which, as you can argue from my other proposals, I am rather keen on butterflying away.

A is the most intriguing and the least farfetched. My 2 cents.

I chose Queen Christina of Naples scenario because I'm intrigued om the possibility.

I voted A.

I voted A, Hohenstaufen (and Hauteville) Sicily is always interesting.

However, did you give up that TL about the Della Scala of Verona?

Gonzaga said:

I voted A, Hohenstaufen (and Hauteville) Sicily is always interesting.

However, did you give up that TL about the Della Scala of Verona?

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erm I had to concentrate on RL and i losta bit interest in that project. One of the problems with that TL that in the end I would have to deal with Milan, and once that city was captured, my TL would not be much different from eg a Visconti TL. Also, all those brilliant ideas that you see in the poll came to me...

That said, I see no love for Cesare or Cristina. Is this because they seem too far-fetched to be possible?

Also, is it coincidence that the only TL with an english name is winning?

Another possibility is that Joseph Bonaparte doesn't give up Naples for Spain.

All the way with option A!

I voted A. However I'd argue, that by the time of Frederick II the attention of the main Hohenstaufen had already shifted from the Empire to Sicily, which started a process of eroding authority in the Empire. Manfred, a bastard, wasn't eligible to inherit the imperial possessions anyway.
Two separate Hohenstaufen branches, one Sicilian and one Imperial might make the Pope feel less threatened; or have the Empire pass to a different dynasty.

I went for d. While I do agree that a may start with a more likely POD, I don't believe that Manfredi winning at The battle of Benevento will mean that his troubles are over. Leaving aside the difficulties of getting back into the good side of the pope, the French are likely to be back for another round. And there is always the sticky problem of Conrad the youngest, who is the titular King of Sicily. It is also unlikely that Manfred may effectively concentrate on the Mediterranean: willing or unwilling, Manfred will have to play a role as the I leader of the imperial party in Italy.

Taking into account that you've already done a lot of research on the same period for the Ausonian Tale, my recommendation is to go for the Eugene TL. Obviously you'll have to do your best to avoid "rewriting" the Murat story with a different leading role.
I do freely admit that my interest in 19th century history may influence my choice.

The other two possibilities are almost asbish (or at least extremely unlikely).

Janprimus said:

I voted A. However I'd argue, that by the time of Frederick II the attention of the main Hohenstaufen had already shifted from the Empire to Sicily, which started a process of eroding authority in the Empire. Manfred, a bastard, wasn't eligible to inherit the imperial possessions anyway.
Two separate Hohenstaufen branches, one Sicilian and one Imperial might make the Pope feel less threatened; or have the Empire pass to a different dynasty.

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Yes, my idea is to keep the Hohenstaufen focused on Sicily, hence my choice of Manfred. I could go with Frederick, as you say his Imperial holdings were basically crumbling even if he had lived longer, but I think that he is already an established "Great Man" and there is more potential in Manfred, who died still relatively young and would be less tempted by Imperial ambitions. As you say, this will help to ease papal worries about ghibelline encirclement.

The German line could continue, if Conradin manages to consolidate his holdings, but it won't be the main focus of the TL.

EDIT: LordKalvan, I wouldn't be as pessimistic about Manfred prospects, although you are right that complete disengagement from North Italian questions is not going to happen. After a victory I think that an agreement with Conradin, with a reciprocal renounciation to conflicting claims is likely, while I doubt that france will be much single-minded about conquering Naples: it's not like they have strong dinastic claims.

That said I am more knowledgeable about the XIXth century too, so Eugene would probably be the "safe" option.

I voted b. Almost entirely ASB sure, but I love the Borgias and would really like to see a successful Cesare TL.

Yanez de Gomera said:

EDIT: LordKalvan, I wouldn't be as pessimistic about Manfred prospects, although you are right that complete disengagement from North Italian questions is not going to happen. After a victory I think that an agreement with Conradin, with a reciprocal renounciation to conflicting claims is likely, while I doubt that france will be much single-minded about conquering Naples: it's not like they have strong dinastic claims.

That said I am more knowledgeable about the XIXth century too, so Eugene would probably be the "safe" option.

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A lasting Manfred reign would certainly be predicated on his capacity of mending the fences with the pope. Given the fact that no pope was ever happy with a strong kingdom of Sicily, and Manfred's leadership of the imperial party in Italy, this is far from easy to achieve. Another problem is what the French will do, both in terms of their influence on the church and the papacy and their desire to avenge Charles of Anjou (who might survive his defeat at Benevento and come back for a second round). Finally there is the role that Conrad the youngest will want or be convinced to play in Germany and Italy: I'd find hard to believe that once of age he'll decide to refrain from contesting his rights to the title of King of the Romans as well as his hereditary rights to the Sicilian crown.

I'm for a because there aren't many good medieval timelines around and you can write interesting timelines.

LordKalvan said:

A lasting Manfred reign would certainly be predicated on his capacity of mending the fences with the pope. Given the fact that no pope was ever happy with a strong kingdom of Sicily, and Manfred's leadership of the imperial party in Italy, this is far from easy to achieve. Another problem is what the French will do, both in terms of their influence on the church and the papacy and their desire to avenge Charles of Anjou (who might survive his defeat at Benevento and come back for a second round). Finally there is the role that Conrad the youngest will want or be convinced to play in Germany and Italy: I'd find hard to believe that once of age he'll decide to refrain from contesting his rights to the title of King of the Romans as well as his hereditary rights to the Sicilian crown.

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Conrad the Younger still has a formidable Hausmacht in the Empire, so he'll definitely will contest his rights to the title of King of the Romans. And Frankly as the 'German' Hohenstaufen candidate, he'll be more popular with the Prince-Electors than the 'Italian' Manfred.
The problem is giving up the hereditary rights to Sicily. Such a division might have been more likely to last, if Philip of Swabia had left surviving male issue. That way the Imperial Lands would go to a younger Hohenstaufen line with no hereditary claims on Sicily.

ramones1986 said:

I chose Queen Christina of Naples scenario because I'm intrigued om the possibility.

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I am too... I know it is borderline-ASB, but for the sake of argument, what would take for her to succeed?

Maybe Anne of austria dies suddenly (which would by itself cause huge butterflies) so the marriage negotiations between Louis XIV and the Austrias fail and Mazarin continues to be interested in taking away Naples from Spain. From Rome Christina, with French gold and support from French agents, starts plotting and bringing some Napolitan nobles to her cause, then a revolt starts in Naples and she is invited as Queen, supported by a French fleet and expeditionary force.

But how can she manage to consolidate her hold over the provinces and survive the inevitable Spanish counterattack?
The people can be placated easily by cutting taxes, as there is no need to pay for garrisons in Flanders, Lombardy and elsewhere.

Also, who would be her heir? She could adopt a young French prince.
What will the Pope do? The Kingdom of Naples is still nominally a papal feud and this could cause complications.

LeCHVCK said:

I'm for a because there aren't many good medieval timelines around and you can write interesting timelines.

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Thank you. But there are many extremely good medieval Byzantine TL's as well as the one Carp is writing about Xth century Italy, which is awesome.

Janprimus said:

Conrad the Younger still has a formidable Hausmacht in the Empire, so he'll definitely will contest his rights to the title of King of the Romans. And Frankly as the 'German' Hohenstaufen candidate, he'll be more popular with the Prince-Electors than the 'Italian' Manfred.
The problem is giving up the hereditary rights to Sicily. Such a division might have been more likely to last, if Philip of Swabia had left surviving male issue. That way the Imperial Lands would go to a younger Hohenstaufen line with no hereditary claims on Sicily.

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I understand what you say, maybe the young Conrad might be persuaded to reach an agreement and maybe become King of the Romans, but in the future there will always be "German" Hohenstaufen ready to move war to Sicily against the "illegitimate" line of Manfred (And the papacy would be all too happy to work the one against the other). Maybe Conrad the Younger could suffer some unfortunate accident, but then the Sicilians would be probably pulled back north to German struggles, which I would rather avoid.

I went for A) but B) was tempting

I like all of them, but if I had to pick, it'd be A. Mainly because I've seen a few TLs with that idea, but I don't recall any of them making it that far once Manfred survives. Failing that, B.

C

Would love to read this one!