Pacific War Question

Trevayne · Sep 1, 2015

Suppose a senior individual in the Japanese government had an inkling of how badly the Pacific War could go for Japan and decided to accept tactical risk and avoid strategic doom. Specifically, the Japanese deliver an unequivocal declaration of war citing their grievances with the US, especially the oil embargo on 5 Dec 41.

They then go ahead with the 7 Dec 41 attack. Given the warning, they probably suffer heavier casualties, but they probably inflict similar losses. Assuming the IJN loses 100 aircraft, with say 230 air crew, for similar damage to the battleships, and lower US aircraft losses, how does the war go from there? In particular, since it clearly wasn't a dastardly sneak attack during peace negotiations, how does this affect the US resolve to fight until the Japanese surrender unconditionally?

If this has been discussed before, could somone please point me to the thread?

Admiral Halsey · Sep 1, 2015

You do realize how badly this would screw up every Japanese plan right? There's no way any senior commander would do something like that as it would throw literally every single plan draw up for the coming invasions right into the garbage.

Caspian · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
Suppose a senior individual in the Japanese government had an inkling of how badly the Pacific War could go for Japan and decided to accept tactical risk and avoid strategic doom. Specifically, the Japanese deliver an unequivocal declaration of war citing their grievances with the US, especially the oil embargo on 5 Dec 41.

They then go ahead with the 7 Dec 41 attack. Given the warning, they probably suffer heavier casualties, but they probably inflict similar losses. Assuming the IJN loses 100 aircraft, with say 230 air crew, for similar damage to the battleships, and lower US aircraft losses, how does the war go from there? In particular, since it clearly wasn't a dastardly sneak attack during peace negotiations, how does this affect the US resolve to fight until the Japanese surrender unconditionally?

If this has been discussed before, could somone please point me to the thread?

As I understand, this will have no effect - Japan will still be viewed in the United States as perfidious violators of all that is good and proper. Japan has nothing to gain by such a delay.

Trevayne · Sep 1, 2015

Admiral Halsey said:
You do realize how badly this would screw up every Japanese plan right? There's no way any senior commander would do something like that as it would throw literally every single plan draw up for the coming invasions right into the garbage.

Why? Japan isn't necessarily declaring war on the British or the Netherlands East Indies. They are accepting a lot more tactical risk with the hope of actually being able to win. OTL, they were doomed as soon as the first bombs fell on Pearl Harbor without a DoW. Here, they might be able to fight to a negotiated peace.

If this is too out there, by all means move it to ASB. But every power in WW1 made sure the DOW happened before the first shots were fired.

phx1138 · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
Here, they might be able to fight to a negotiated peace.

I really, really doubt it, since the U.S. was already worried about Japan's growing power & was already on her way to wanting to totally dominate the Atlantic & Pacific. Stomping Japan would fit nicely.

Trevayne · Sep 1, 2015

caspian88 said:
As I understand, this will have no effect - Japan will still be viewed in the United States as perfidious violators of all that is good and proper. Japan has nothing to gain by such a delay.

Why? OTL, Japan attacked the US during peace time, while negotiators were still talking. ITTL, Japan will have dedclared war more than 24 hours before the beginning of hostilities (against the US at least). Granted, there will still be racist anger over US defeats, but even the most racist elemts in the US will not be able to play the trachery card. Instead, the Pearl Harbor attack would leads to a massive "WTF were you idiots doing?" There would still be anger, but most of the blame would go to the Hawaiian commands who got beaten despite being given 24 hours warning of hostilities.

Again, I can see why this might be called ASB because of its implausiblity. If it is deemed ASB then could a moderator please move it.

Trevayne · Sep 1, 2015

phx1138 said:
I really, really doubt it, since the U.S. was already worried about Japan's growing power & was already on her way to wanting to totally dominate the Atlantic & Pacific. Stomping Japan would fit nicely.

Yes it would, but it would be harder to maintain popular support without the "Day of Infamy". Yes, the US might still call it that, but without a treacherous attack it doesn't have the same punch. Without that drive for vengeance even the US might hesitate after the third or fourth Tarawa. In addition, they might have some hesitation about unrestricted submarine warfare if the Japanese appeared to be playing by the rules.

nbcman · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
Why? Japan isn't necessarily declaring war on the British or the Netherlands East Indies. They are accepting a lot more tactical risk with the hope of actually being able to win. OTL, they were doomed as soon as the first bombs fell on Pearl Harbor without a DoW. Here, they might be able to fight to a negotiated peace.

If this is too out there, by all means move it to ASB. But every power in WW1 made sure the DOW happened before the first shots were fired.

Even if there was a DoW by the Japanese, the US would still be out for Japanese blood for attacking them due to the ever increasing tension between the two nations in the past few years. And not attacking the British and Dutch would defeat the purpose of Japan going to war to secure the resources of Malaya and the East Indies - the US was attacked as it was deemed too risky to leave a strong potential foe alone when grabbing those resources. It is not an ASB scenario, but it is not a scenario that anyone in a leadership role in Japan would offer.

Caspian · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
Yes it would, but it would be harder to maintain popular support without the "Day of Infamy". Yes, the US might still call it that, but without a treacherous attack it doesn't have the same punch. Without that drive for vengeance even the US might hesitate after the third or fourth Tarawa. In addition, they might have some hesitation about unrestricted submarine warfare if the Japanese appeared to be playing by the rules.

That's what propaganda is for. Americans will not give two shits about whether Japan followed the niceties of war.

Glenn239 · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
...how does the war go from there? In particular, since it clearly wasn't a dastardly sneak attack during peace negotiations, how does this affect the US resolve to fight until the Japanese surrender unconditionally?

100 aircraft and 230 aircrew lost would not prevent Kido Butai from moving south in support of the Southern Operation. 5th CAR DIV may have to embark obsolescent reserve types (A5M4, B5N1, D1A1) and the lighter carriers may have to return to Japan to raise new air wings, but when Yamamoto calculated he could lose half his aircraft, it was because he had the immediate reserves.

In terms of how the war ends, Italy did not sneak attack Pearl Harbor and AFAIK her officials didn't get too far into atrocities. Made no difference.

Admiral Halsey · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
Why? Japan isn't necessarily declaring war on the British or the Netherlands East Indies. They are accepting a lot more tactical risk with the hope of actually being able to win. OTL, they were doomed as soon as the first bombs fell on Pearl Harbor without a DoW. Here, they might be able to fight to a negotiated peace.

If this is too out there, by all means move it to ASB. But every power in WW1 made sure the DOW happened before the first shots were fired.

There's no reason to fight the US unless they're going after the East Indie's as well. They needed the oil which they won't get by fighting the US alone. Plus Hitler being Hitler he's most likely going to declare war on the US which in turns means the US declares on him in turn leading them to also Declare on Japan which in turn in order to feed its war machine responds in kind and also attacks the Indie's thus bringing us to basically OTL.

They either attack everyone or they attack none and they can't do the first without surprise which they all acknowledged and they can't survive the second considering the oil embargo the US is holding against them as they have about a year's supply of oil left if they don't attack at best. Japan had put itself into the ultimate lose-lose scenario here.

Trevayne · Sep 1, 2015

nbcman said:
Even if there was a DoW by the Japanese, the US would still be out for Japanese blood for attacking them due to the ever increasing tension between the two nations in the past few years. And not attacking the British and Dutch would defeat the purpose of Japan going to war to secure the resources of Malaya and the East Indies. It is not an ASB scenario, but it is not a scenario that anyone in a leadership role in Japan would offer.

My apologies, I mispoke and was unclear. I didn't say they wouldn't attack the British and the Dutch. I said they wouldn't declare on them early. The only actual change I am proposing is that the US, and only the US, gets just over 24 hours warning. The British and Dutch would not get the same warning and the attacks on them would go in as OTL, although since they would know of the DoW on the US, their alert levels may be higher.

As for increasing tension, there are certainly parts of the US that want to fight Japan. However in this scenario it remains parts. I doubt very much the US would get only 1 no vote on the DoW in Congress.

Caspian · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
I doubt very much the US would get only 1 no vote on the DoW in Congress.

I doubt very much they won't. Germany declared war on the United States well in advance of actually attacking Americans as a result - the vote in favor of declaring war on Germany had NO dissenting votes.

Admiral Halsey · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
My apologies, I mispoke and was unclear. I didn't say they wouldn't attack the British and the Dutch. I said they wouldn't declare on them early. The only actual change I am proposing is that the US, and only the US, gets just over 24 hours warning. The British and Dutch would not get the same warning and the attacks on them would go in as OTL, although since they would know of the DoW on the US, their alert levels may be higher.

As for increasing tension, there are certainly parts of the US that want to fight Japan. However in this scenario it remains parts. I doubt very much the US would get only 1 no vote on the DoW in Congress.

And the British and Dutch would be sitting around doing what when word gets out? You know FDR would let them know of this if they somehow don't and they'd be put on full alert. Force Z would move out early and get into Singapore thus fucking over those plans from the get go. Japan can not give any advanced warning of any of the attack's lest the entire situation get fucked up for them.

Trevayne · Sep 1, 2015

caspian88 said:
That's what propaganda is for. Americans will not give two shits about whether Japan followed the niceties of war.

I think you are wrong. In Korea, the US was willing to accept a stalemate and in Vietnam a defeat. Granted there are other reasons, but in neither case did the NVA or the NKPA attack the US treacherously.

mack8 · Sep 1, 2015

caspian88 said:
As I understand, this will have no effect - Japan will still be viewed in the United States as perfidious violators of all that is good and proper. Japan has nothing to gain by such a delay.

Fully agree to that, it will make no difference, like mentioned that whole "sneaky japs cowardly attack us without a DoW!" was for propaganda only, if it wasn't that it would have been something else.

Admiral Halsey · Sep 1, 2015

Also by the time of the attack the isolationists were shrinking in number. The country was becoming resigned to the fact that war was inevitable between the US and Japan at least.

Trevayne · Sep 1, 2015

Admiral Halsey said:
And the British and Dutch would be sitting around doing what when word gets out? You know FDR would let them know of this if they somehow don't and they'd be put on full alert. Force Z would move out early and get into Singapore thus fucking over those plans from the get go. Japan can not give any advanced warning of any of the attack's lest the entire situation get fucked up for them.

Err, IIRC Force Z was sunk after the war started while it was looking for the Japanese. While it might have gone differently I don't see Phillips changing his actions because he was told the Japanese were attacking the Americans 24-36 hours before they did attack. OTL he could have headed straight back to Singapore as soon, but he didn't.

King Augeas · Sep 1, 2015

Nothing changes.

The course that Japan has followed for the past ten years in Asia has paralleled the course of Hitler and Mussolini in Europe and in Africa. Today, it has become far more than a parallel. It is actual collaboration so well calculated that all the continents of the world, and all the oceans, are now considered by the Axis strategists as one gigantic battlefield.

In 1931, ten years ago, Japan invaded Manchukuo—without warning.
In 1935, Italy invaded Ethiopia—without warning. In 1938, Hitler occupied Austria—without warning.
In 1939, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia—without warning. Later in '39, Hitler invaded Poland—without warning. In 1940, Hitler invaded Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg—without warning.
In 1940, Italy attacked France and later Greece—without warning.
And this year, in 1941, the Axis Powers attacked Yugoslavia and Greece and they dominated the Balkans—without warning. In 1941, also, Hitler invaded Russia—without warning. And now Japan has attacked Malaya and Thailand—and the United States—without warning.

It is all of one pattern.

...

We know also that Germany and Japan are conducting their military and naval operations in accordance with a joint plan. That plan considers all peoples and nations which are not helping the Axis powers as common enemies of each and every one of the Axis powers.

That is their simple and obvious grand strategy. And that is why the American people must realize that it can be matched only with similar grand strategy. We must realize for example that Japanese successes against the United States in the Pacific are helpful to German operations in Libya; that any German success against the Caucasus is inevitably an assistance to Japan in her operations against the Dutch East Indies; that a German attack against Algiers or Morocco opens the way to a German attack against South America and the Canal.

On the other side of the picture, we must learn also to know that guerilla warfare against the Germans in, let us say Serbia or Norway, helps us; that a successful Russian offensive against the Germans helps us; and that British successes on land or sea in any part of the world strengthen our hands.

Remember always that Germany and Italy, regardless of any formal declaration of war, consider themselves at war with the United States at this moment just as much as they consider themselves at war with Britain or Russia. And Germany puts all the other Republics of the Americas into the same category of enemies. The people of our sister Republics of this Hemisphere can be honored by that fact.

Admiral Halsey · Sep 1, 2015

Trevayne said:
Err, IIRC Force Z was sunk after the war started while it was looking for the Japanese. While it might have gone differently I don't see Phillips changing his actions because he was told the Japanese were attacking the Americans 24-36 hours before they did attack. OTL he could have headed straight back to Singapore as soon, but he didn't.

Ok i'll admit I got that date of deployment to Singapore wrong. Anyway's its a moot point because everything will be fucked for Japan if they give a single notice of advanced warning. There's a reason Yamamato even though he knew the surprise attack would commit America to the fight and potentially cause a long war pushed for it. It was Japans only way to have even had a shot at winning the war. Also Pearl wouldn't be nearly as bad with advanced warning and in fact could easily go bad enough for it to be considered a Japanese defeat.