WI: Tsar Paul Not Assassinated

So towards the end of his life, Tsar Paul made an about face in his foreign policy, turning against the British and making a rapproachment with Napoleon. At the moment of his assassination, Nelson was apparently sailing with a British navy from his success at Copenhagen to St. Petersburg (to do what, wikipedia would not tell me).

So what if Tsar Paul is not assassinated? How does this affect the Napoleonic Wars, particularly the fact that Russia is now hostile towards Britain and friendly towards Napoleon?

War and Peace would be all anglophobia rather than francophobia? With Count Bezukhov hiding out in the ruins of St. Petersburg rather than Moscow?

Seriously, if you go decide to go the Tolstoy route with this I would subscribe to that timeline so fast you would get whiplash.

Of course, keep in mind all the major European powers, including Alexander I's Russia, were flip-flopping all over the place when it came to Napoleon, and so Paul might easily flop back the other direction. This inconstancy, as best as I can tell, seemed to come down to various pathetic monarchs going fetal and screaming "not the face, not the face!" rather than any big foreign policy idea or philosophy.

But sadly, at this point most of what I know of Napoleonic history I know by way of Tolstoy. That this is partial and more than a little biased seems almost too obvious to have to say.

As long as this alliance holds, Napoleon will not expand more in continental Europe.

But the question is : what will the UK do ? It actually had a hand in Paul's murder. It will certainly to for an Amiens-like peace. But for how long and what after ?

Matteo said:

As long as this alliance holds, Napoleon will not expand more in continental Europe.

But the question is : what will the UK do ? It actually had a hand in Paul's murder. It will certainly to for an Amiens-like peace. But for how long and what after ?

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I've NEVER heard that the British had a hand in Paul's assassination. Now his son and heir Alexander? Yes, but not a foreign power.

Read Elizabeth Sparrow and Oleg Sokolov about ambassador Whitworth. I am not saying Britain after alone not was the main actor. But it certainly supported and have the hand to the plot against Paul.

This article - however prejudiced it may be (pro-monarchist etc) - certainly changed my view of Paul. I suppose I always saw Paul as a filler between his mother and son, never as a potential enlightened sovereign. And he had some good ideas, much like his similarly murdered father. Superficial history just seems to remember the crazier ones - like sending an army across Asia to India.

Interesting read to me reflecting the idea of the good king - father of his lands and peoples.
His penchant for restoring the rightful former ruler would of course have been a pain in the butt for Denmark should he have had survived.
Interesting, quite interesting.

Would Tsar Paul have been more open to the idea of Napoleon marrying one of his daughters? If so that would make the dynamic between Napoleon and Alexander very interesting down the road

i dislike paul he got rid of suvovorv, man was an idiot. not that he deserved to die

CaptainAmerica said:

Would Tsar Paul have been more open to the idea of Napoleon marrying one of his daughters? If so that would make the dynamic between Napoleon and Alexander very interesting down the road

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Very unlikely. Paul was very close to his children (especially the younger ones his mother didn't take away) and very much a believer in legitimist rule. He wasn't going to marry one of his daughters to a Corsican general.

As it can be seen by the change of deployment of Russian armies in 1800-1801 Paul wanted to start the war against Ottomans probably in the Summer of 1801. And in case Paul lives Russia can concentrate bigger forces against Turks than it was possible in 1806-1812. In 1801 French forces in Egypt are still fighting so France will support any weakening of Turks and look favorable on almost any Russian possible territorial gains.


While I’m not sure of the extent of Russian possible victory over Ottomans, the political situation when the peace treaty would be signed will be much more favorable than OTL 1812. In OTL it was clear that in several months Napoleon would invade so in order not to fight in another front Russia had to sign treaty that was much milder than the actual war results. In ATL Russia can take half Balkans and possibly even Straits if Ottoman defeat is decisive.


Moreover in case Russia starts the war in the first half of 1801, French forces in Egypt can continue fighting as Ottomans will have to concentrate its main forces in the Balkans and Russian Mediterranean fleet under Ushakov will be able to challenge British hegemony in East Mediterranean. Another political change in case of war against Ottomans will be continued Russian control over Septinsular Republic . And it has perfect bases for Russian Mediterranean fleet.


IIRC Copenhagen surrendered only after the news of Paul’s death reached Denmark. If he lives the probability of peace treaty is greatly reduced. If the battle of Copenhagen continues it can bring major differences to the war. I’m not sure that Britain has the power to win a quick decisive victory if Danes would chose to fight till the end. And if the victory will not be quick Russian fleet may interfere. While in usual circumstances British fleet is definitely stronger than Russian, in this particular case Brits are exhausted by lengthy fighting in Copenhagen so Russian fleet can actually win. While this scenario is not sure even simply Danes fighting till the end would prevent Brits from taking Danish fleet (as it would be destroyed).


So in case Paul lives the whole course of history of Napoleonic Wars would change drammatically.

Shnurre said:

As it can be seen by the change of deployment of Russian armies in 1800-1801 Paul wanted to start the war against Ottomans probably in the Summer of 1801. And in case Paul lives Russia can concentrate bigger forces against Turks than it was possible in 1806-1812. In 1801 French forces in Egypt are still fighting so France will support any weakening of Turks and look favorable on almost any Russian possible territorial gains.


While I’m not sure of the extent of Russian possible victory over Ottomans, the political situation when the peace treaty would be signed will be much more favorable than OTL 1812. In OTL it was clear that in several months Napoleon would invade so in order not to fight in another front Russia had to sign treaty that was much milder than the actual war results. In ATL Russia can take half Balkans and possibly even Straits if Ottoman defeat is decisive.


Moreover in case Russia start the war in the first half of 1801 French forces in Egypt can continue fighting as Ottomans will have to concentrate its main forces in the Balkans Russian Mediterranean fleet under Ushakov will be able to challenge British hegemony in East Mediterranean. Another political change in case of war against Ottomans will be continued Russian control over Septinsular Republic . And it has perfect bases for Russian Mediterranean fleet.


IIRC Copenhagen surrendered only after the news of Paul’s death reached Denmark. If he lives the probability of peace treaty is greatly reduced. If the battle of Copenhagen continues it can bring major differences to the war. I’m not sure that Britain has the power to make a quick decisive victory if Danes would chose to fight till the end. And if the victory will not be quick Russian fleet may interfere. While in usual circumstances I British fleet is definitely stronger than Russian, in case Brits are exhausted by lengthy fighting in Copenhagen Russian fleet can actually win. While this scenario is not sure even simply Danes fighting till the end would prevent Brits from taking Danish fleet (as it would be destroyed).


So in case Paul lives the whole course of history of Napoleonic Wars would change drammatically.

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Hmmmm, very interesting butterflies this causes. So what happens then? How does Napoleon react to all this?

slydessertfox said:

Hmmmm, very interesting butterflies this causes. So what happens then? How does Napoleon react to all this?

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I suppose Napoleon is rather happy. Brits are defeated in the Baltics(or at least do not take Danish fleet and have higher casulties than in OTL). Russia starts the war against two French enemies - Ottoman Empire and Britain. So I suppose either ATL treaty of Amiens is even more in favour of France or the war continues for several more years with Mediterranean as one of main fronts with epic battles of British fleets v. s. Ushakov and parts of French navy. In the best case France takes Egypt and Russia takes large part of European Ottoman Empire(with several possible vassal states).

But Britain is unlikely to concede defeat permanently and while I can see the possibilities of the defeat of British Navy in the theatres like Baltic or Mediterranean or even both and while without Russian naval supplies British fleet will be somewhat weaker challenging British hegemony over English Channel is not something possible in the next 5-10 years at least. So in case Britain chooses to fight it will be whale-elephant once again until France builds large enough fleet that can with Russian and possibly Danish aid hope to defeat Britain in the Channel. And of course even if France is able to build such a fleet British experience in the naval warfare is still unmatched so the possibilities of the definite victory over Britain are rather slim.




BTW while famous Platov Indian March(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_March_of_Paul ) will defenitely not reach India it can lead to the conquest of Central Asian states in 1800s.

Shnurre said:

IIRC Copenhagen surrendered only after the news of Paul’s death reached Denmark. If he lives the probability of peace treaty is greatly reduced. If the battle of Copenhagen continues it can bring major differences to the war. I’m not sure that Britain has the power to win a quick decisive victory if Danes would chose to fight till the end. And if the victory will not be quick Russian fleet may interfere. While in usual circumstances British fleet is definitely stronger than Russian, in this particular case Brits are exhausted by lengthy fighting in Copenhagen so Russian fleet can actually win. While this scenario is not sure even simply Danes fighting till the end would prevent Brits from taking Danish fleet (as it would be destroyed).


So in case Paul lives the whole course of history of Napoleonic Wars would change drammatically.

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Actually the news of Pauls death only reached Copenhagen just post surrender so you can't have this changed.
Instead you'd have the Royal Navy go bashing the Swedish Navy and then wait for the ice to thaw in the Finland Gulf to have a go at the Russians.

As to the British financing the assassination IDK, however, wiki does point out that the Pahlen Conspiracy had members of the officialdom most opposed to the Indian march, and the conspiracy was financed by British diplomacy.

However, the Indian March could've been interesting. However, I suspect a possible falling out among thieves if they're actually successful, with Russia and France perhaps arguing over who gets what.

Also, Paul's policy for Russia during the Napoleonic Wars might be as the one character says in Hornblower about the Spaniards "they've a bolt-hole in Cadiz, they'll sit the war out, and sail forth to congratulate the winner" - so Paul might change alliances as it suits Russia's purposes. Yes, Paul is not as chameleon-like as Alexander, but I think to treat it that his reign would be a total loss or totally pro-French or pro-English would be underestimating it. I do possibly see a better match on the horizon for Ekaterina Pavlovna than first to one cousin then another - simply to keep her out of Napoleon's reach (not that either match was a bad match, simply that the first seems (to me) a match of expedience, marrying her to a second-son cousin who could take up residence in Russia so that her brother wouldn't be deprived of her company).