DBWI: The Serbian Crisis really blows up

In 1914, Gavrilo Princip, alone of a group of six, managed to fatally shoot Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary. The government of Austria- Hungary made some very threatening noises, but quick thinking and very careful diplomacy, combined with a speedy (but not hasty) trial managed to smooth things over. But it was a near thing, and I can't help wondering what might have happened if cooler heads had not prevailed.

Maybe something could have happened if Germany and Austria-Hungary had some reason to push for war? I heard that the Austro-Hungarians considered making demands too harsh for Serbia to accept, but in the end, sanity prevailed thankfully.

Whitewings said:

In 1914, Gavrilo Princip, alone of a group of six, managed to fatally shoot Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary. The government of Austria- Hungary made some very threatening noises, but quick thinking and very careful diplomacy, combined with a speedy (but not hasty) trial managed to smooth things over. But it was a near thing, and I can't help wondering what might have happened if cooler heads had not prevailed.

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It was really only thanks, though, to the fact that a Swiss diplomat convinced his gov't to offer to have the country serve as a moderating party between the two sides.

Unfortunately, this didn't stop the Great War from breaking out, anyway, six years later, after it was discovered by the rump White Russian government in Kiev that the Communists had been largely operating out of Poland, France, and the Low Countries; Germany allied with them, both declared war on those other countries, and we all know what happened then(though the Austrians stayed out of the war themselves); sad truth is, if it wasn't Princip, it would have been something, sooner or later.

True, but it's fairly obvious why the British stayed neutral, we weren't the agressors.

Same reason why Belgium got off with a slap on the wrist.

Might we have had the great war a decade earlier ?

I doubt Russia would even have fallen to revolution, as pre 1919 Russia-Serbia-France could have surely defeated Germany and Austria with little trouble. That's not even mentioning the insane Shclieffen Plan that Germany planned to follow that would have pulled Britain in as well. A common enemy does wonders to keep a state together.

You know something you guys are forgetting is how this would effect the Japanese-Anglo-American naval race of the 20's. Would it even happen for example? Would the US still emerge from it as the dominate naval power if it did? Would Japan still have nearly bankrupted itself trying to keep up?

Admiral Halsey said:

You know something you guys are forgetting is how this would effect the Japanese-Anglo-American naval race of the 20's. Would it even happen for example? Would the US still emerge from it as the dominate naval power if it did? Would Japan still have nearly bankrupted itself trying to keep up?

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It seems unlikely. After coming out of a major war, I doubt either England or the US would have been in fit shape to engage in large-scale naval R&D. There would have been some, of course, but I can't really see a three-way race. Japan would probably have gone with an incremental approach: new components for old hulls, new hulls when the old prove inadequate, keep the number of types low to minimize production difficulties. Without heavy pressure from England and the US, I can't see them making a totally new ship type every six months like they seemed to be producing. Maybe they would have even figured out that trading beats out occupation for getting resources.

So the question is what are the prerequisites for an escalation.

1. FF was not very much liked - neither by FJ nor by the A-H population (and definitely NOT by teh Magyar elite) - so FJ was really relieved that now Karl - whom he actually liked - was heir to the throne. So you would have to change the relation between FJ and FF (they really really were very opposite personalities) for the better to have a "personal" reason to go to war.

2. IMHO 1911 was the key year when Franz Conrad came out victorious against Aerenthal. Its quite an irony that the "hawk" Conrad got his way when in 1912 the Balkans crisis broke out. Remember the situation. The Ottomans were fighting a loosing war against the Italians when 3 Balkans nations took the opportunity and attacked the Ottoman Empire. Conrad convinced the Emperor that A-H could not allow the Russian friendly Serbs and Bulgars to expand. So the Austrian intervention quickly ended the crisis. THis led to further cooling relations with Russia on the down side (but there was no way the Russians and Austrians would have cordial relations anyway).

But the intervention led to an Ottoman Austrian friendship (Britain secretly was also haoppy that the Ottoman Empire survived this crisis). The minor border adjustments benefitted the Greek and did not hurt the Ottomans too much. The Ottomans also got a quite good deal with Italy as Italy feared Austrian intervention (Conrad was for it) and made a quick peace.

Suddenly in 1912 A-H turned from a declining nation to an active player again.

So there was no need to throw down Serbia (again) - Austria had proved its point 1912. It could be lenient in its demands and as long as Serbia punished the assassin(s) - which it did - all was well.

in 1916 FJ died and Karl ascended the throne. Karl was much more acceptable to the Hungarians and had good relations with the West from the start (young handsome a clever wife - immaculate behaviour). in 1921 Austria-Hungary was more powerful and stable than the 100 year before. The Russian revolution of 1921 and the civil war of 1921-1924 also relieved Austria of any fear that russia coudl endager its position. That left Italy as only "problem".

In addition Karl could reason that the White/Germany DOW made the Great war not a defensive war, so no alliance was triggered. A-H and Britain could sit out this "great war" (and make a profit in selling to both sídes )

BUt I digress.

I believe if Austria had let pass the opportunity to intervene in the Balkan crisis it would be forced to be hard on (a stronger) Serbia in 1914.