How much did smoking effect health of certain 20th century figures?

It's no secret that smoking was far more commonplace in the last century and from what I've read, several famous figures smoked quite heavily. But smoking, like other vices, is notoriously inconsistent in its effects, as some people smoke all their lives and live until 90 while other people get lung cancer at age 50. So my question is, what if the following people were not smokers:

Franklin Roosevelt-it's undisputed that he died of a cerebral hemorrhage. He also had high blood pressure throughout the last couple years of his life. Of course, he was president during one of the most stressful times in American history, so that certainly played a role. And obviously, he had polio (or Guillain-Barre Syndrome, according to some experts), but either way, he was paralyzed from the waist down. I do recall reading that FDR's paralysis adversely effected his blood circulation and contributed to his ill health in 1944-45. Based on all this, it's unlikely FDR was going to live to 80. But if he didn't smoke, might he have lived through his fourth term?

Wendell Wilkie- he died of a heart attack in 1944 at age 52. I always wondered why he died so young and I never came across much information about his cigarette habits. But in the book Almost President by Scott Farris, he says that Wilkie was a two pack a day smoker. First of all, anyone have any idea on the accuracy of this? Second of all, if he did smoke that much, then again I have to ask how much smoking effected his health. His case is very interesting because I know FDR approached him in 1944 about the two of them creating an all liberal party. That's an interesting what-if. If anyone can give me a link to any "what if Wilkie lives" threads I'd greatly appreciate it.

Dwight Eisenhower-since he lived through both of his terms and beyond, I guess there isn't as much juicy speculation with him as with the other 2. He did have a heart attack in 1955 and a stroke in 1957. I'm sure smoking contributed to some extent. I'll throw in a what-if regarding him not smoking, but it doesn't look like it would impact history in a meaningful way, unless we were to abolish the 22nd amendment also (which I would love to do, but that is not the topic of this thread).

Any other famous people who might have lived longer by not lighting up?

Well it is well known that smoking causes increased cardiovascular disease, non-cancer lung problems (like the COPD that got Spock), and of course all manner of cancers (lung, mouth/throat, and others). Cardiovascular disease includes high blood pressure, strokes, heart attacks. FWIW Queen Elizabeth's father, King George was a heavy smoker and died of lung cancer in the early 50s.

The general cut-off for seeing serious smoking effects is 20 pack years (1 pack/day x20 yrs, 2 packs/day x 20 yrs etc). Less than that usually avoid major issues, once you pass that things begin to pile up. So anyone who smoked that much or more is a candidate for smoking related early demise and/or disability.

Interesting fact: Eisenhower smoked 60 cigarettes (about 5 packs) a day.

One person who's life could change is Stalin. For years Stalin was a heavy smoker and as a result had atherosclerosis (a condition where white blood cells accumulate in the arteries). One of the result of this was that Stalin became more and more erratic, quite possibly the result of his brain not getting as much blood flow due to atherosclerosis. This disease also dramatically increases the risk of a stroke-which killed Stalin in 1953. Now, its unlikely that he would live much longer (he was 74 at the time of his death), but even a Stalin that is less erratic and lives a few more years could have major effects on Korea, the Cold War, and the future of the Soviet Union.

George VI. He basically smoked himself to death, along with the wartime stress. Yes, the direct cause of death was unrelated, but the smoking had a drastic negative effect on his health.

Roosevelt probably could have added some time on to his life, although I don't imagine it would be much. Same with Churchill, although it is frankly amazing that man lived as long as he did IOTL with all that smoking and drinking...

ObssesedNuker said:

Same with Churchill, although it is frankly amazing that man lived as long as he did IOTL with all that smoking and drinking...

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He probably would have killed himself without the smoking and drinking. He had eternal depression that he called a little black dog, haunting him throughout his life.

Edward Murrow living substantially longer, and he would have had he not smoked more than the US Army in WW2 single handedly, might have some interesting effects on the relationship between branches of the press going forward into the turbulent 60s and 70s.

Speaking of King George VI, I read that Margaret smoked and drank to excess; this must have contributed to her death at age 71. This of course killed her mother, albeit at age 101. It would have been interesting to see how long the Queen Mother could have lasted had it not been for this tragedy so late in her life. Here's Queen Elizabeth, turning 89 next month, and still going strong. I think she also smoked [maybe still does] but only a little bit.

Leonard Nimoy (GBH). He was hospitalized for chest pains just before his death, something later attributed to a smoking habit he had given up 30 years prior. Not that he couldn't have lived and prospered long enough like he did, but his passing certainly could have been delayed or been of sources not related to smoking.

John Wayne

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wayne

Among the cast and crew who filmed the 1956 film The Conqueror on location near St. George, Utah, 91 developed some form of cancer at various times, including stars Wayne, Susan Hayward, and Agnes Moorehead, and director Dick Powell. The film was shot in southwestern Utah, east of and generally downwind from the site of recent U.S. Government nuclear weapons tests in southeastern Nevada. Many contend that radioactive fallout from these tests contaminated the film location and poisoned the film crew working there.Despite the suggestion that Wayne's 1964 lung cancer and his 1979 stomach cancer resulted from nuclear contamination, he believed his lung cancer to have been a result of his six-packs-a-day cigarette habit.


Its important to note that in contradiction of the claim of contamination the Duke himself always attributed his health problems to his smoking habit, and that thirty years ago 72 was about the average life expectancy for a man of his demographic.
And that the cancer rate of the cast and crew in question was NOT substantially higher than the national average, the odds of developing cancer for men in the U.S. population are 43 percent and the odds of dying of cancer are 23 percent (38 percent and 19 percent, respectively, for women).This places the cancer mortality rate for the 220 primary cast and crew very near the expected average.

By the time of his death he was effectively retired, it had been 3 years since The Shootist, however had his health been better he could have presented the Academy Awards again. Supported Political Campaigns (Perhaps even running for office himself), resurrected his production company, used nepotism to promote his sons careers, become a reclusive tax exile on his Private Island ...

ObssesedNuker said:

Roosevelt probably could have added some time on to his life, although I don't imagine it would be much. Same with Churchill, although it is frankly amazing that man lived as long as he did IOTL with all that smoking and drinking...

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Churchill was a man whose habits would almost certainly get him no matter what. Whether it's smoking, drinking, or even just his weight.

Napoleon IV said:

Interesting fact: Eisenhower smoked 60 cigarettes (about 5 packs) a day.

One person who's life could change is Stalin. For years Stalin was a heavy smoker and as a result had atherosclerosis (a condition where white blood cells accumulate in the arteries). One of the result of this was that Stalin became more and more erratic, quite possibly the result of his brain not getting as much blood flow due to atherosclerosis. This disease also dramatically increases the risk of a stroke-which killed Stalin in 1953. Now, its unlikely that he would live much longer (he was 74 at the time of his death), but even a Stalin that is less erratic and lives a few more years could have major effects on Korea, the Cold War, and the future of the Soviet Union.

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Another interesting fact about Eisenhower is that when his doctor told him to quit (which I think was in 1948 or thereabouts), he had one last smoke for old-time's sake, threw away his last pack and never smoked again. Talk about willpower.

oudi14 said:

Speaking of King George VI, I read that Margaret smoked and drank to excess; this must have contributed to her death at age 71. This of course killed her mother, albeit at age 101. It would have been interesting to see how long the Queen Mother could have lasted had it not been for this tragedy so late in her life. Here's Queen Elizabeth, turning 89 next month, and still going strong. I think she also smoked [maybe still does] but only a little bit.

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I know Queen Margrethe smokes but I've never read anything about Queen Elizabeth smoking.

oudi14 said:

Speaking of King George VI, I read that Margaret smoked and drank to excess; this must have contributed to her death at age 71.

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Margaret was depressed most of her adult life. Can't really blame her for that.

KittyKat said:

I know Queen Margrethe smokes but I've never read anything about Queen Elizabeth smoking.

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She smokes. A landmark documentary many years ago - the first to follow the royals with cameras, IIRC - revealed that most (all?) of the Royal Family are smokers, many of them heavy. The Queen Mother, famously, was a very heavy smoker.

More than a few people have stories of the Queen cadging a cigarette off them, though many of the stories are doubtless made up. Some of the royal staffers and civil servants who have admitted it, however, are probably telling the truth.

Meadow said:

She smokes. A landmark documentary many years ago - the first to follow the royals with cameras, IIRC - revealed that most (all?) of the Royal Family are smokers, many of them heavy. The Queen Mother, famously, was a very heavy smoker.

More than a few people have stories of the Queen cadging a cigarette off them, though many of the stories are doubtless made up. Some of the royal staffers and civil servants who have admitted it, however, are probably telling the truth.

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If you only have one cigarette left and the Queen wants to bum a cigarette off you, what is the proper protocol?

Napoleon IV said:

If you only have one cigarette left and the Queen wants to bum a cigarette off you, what is the proper protocol?

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Give it to her and have a kickass story to tell your friends and family?
Though the thought of a nicotine deprived Queen throwing a fit js just as good a story.

Sigmund Freud's heavy smoking eventually led to cancer in his jaw. It got so bad that he committed assisted suicide.

Gamal Abdel Nasser was a chain smoker whose family had a history of heart problems. It shouldn't come as a surprise that he died at the age of 52. Imagine what would have happened if he had lived to be an old man and that he would gradually decay to one of those old Mubarak/Ghaddafi type dictators throughout the 80s and 90s.