Midway: Without the 5 lucky minutes

Midway: Without the 5 lucky minutes



Author's note: This an exploration of what would happen with a Japanese “victory” at Midway. I will, whenever possible, give Japanese forces “good luck”, which they did not receive in real life. There is no way that Japan can “win” WWII, based on the situation after Pearl Harbor. At best, this time line means that the first atomic bomb is used tactically on Okinawa.


The point of the departure is the submarine Nautilus.


Historically, she spotted Kirishima & escorts early June 4, 1942.


In this changed time-line Nautilus's navigation, or perhaps mechanical problems delay her, is off by, say 20 miles, and she does NOT see masts on the horizon at 7:55 am. So, Kirishima's screen does not spend a couple of hours on ASW. And, most importantly, the destroyer Arashi does not leave Kirishima and and Wade McClusky does NOT see her as she is returning to Krisihima. So, he, like Hornet's dive bombers, does not locate the Japanese carriers. They kill some fish and fly back to Enterprise and do NOT attack Kaga or Akagi.


Yorktown's attack does occur, and in the interests of simplicity, I will assume that they attack Soryu like they did historically. (Without the Enterprise's dive bombers in the area, they might have changed carriers or split their attack between two or more Japanese carriers. I have no idea about the coordination between the 2 groups, but, judging by the horrible US coordination during the battle, I'm assuming that they did not talk to each other.)



Now, in this timeline, instead of Hiryu's 24 planes following them back to Yorktown, Kaga, Akagi and Hiryu lauch. (I do not know how many planes were on/ready Kaga and Akagi, so 75+ planes.)


At Noon, or so, they attack Yorktown. This is a large enough attack that Yorktown is sunk within hours. There is enough extra planes that additional ships are attacked. Astoria and Portland are attacked and damaged and/or sunk.


Fighters, after supressing Yorktown's CAP, are sent out to locate the other carriers. They locate Enterprise & Hornet.


40-50ish planes fly back to Japanese carriers.




Enterprise and Hornet lauch 2nd attack against Japanese carriers. 1:30ish




Meanwhile, the First wave (against Midway) planes are turned around and sent off 1:30ish to attack Enterprise & Hornet. (50+ undamaged from the Midway attack plus lightly damaged/reserve. So call it 60-75 planes)


Enterprise dive bombers attack Japanese carriers. Japanese CAP is up and ready, unlike at 10:30am. The dive bombers attack Kaga (& Akagi) like they did in real-life. However the better CAP shots down LC Best before he can attack Akagi. So, Akagi is not damaged/destroyed. Kaga, however, is still hit and burns. (Changing the target ship to Akagi is possible. It would allow me to declare Adr. Nagumo a casuality and promote Adr. Yamaguchi, which should have benefits long term.)


Hornet's dive bombers miss their target, just like in real life.


Japanese attack on Enterprise and Hornet. The split attack damages both carriers. Hornet (no flight/fires & populsion damage) Enterprise (no flight/fires)


General retreat all US ships is ordered.


Approx 25-30 planes fly back to Japanese carriers.




Japanese 3rd wave attack near dusk. 40-50 planes. (the left-overs from the first Yorktown attack wave)

Hornet, basically immobile, is sunk. Enterprise, in full retreat, is not attacked (a submarine does put a torepedo in her the next day, but she still does not sink). Crusiers/Destroyers recovering personal off Hornet are attacked. 2 Heavy Crusiers sunk/heavily damaged. Others damaged.


20~ Japanese planes return to carriers.


Late afternoon


Attacks on Japanese carriers by remaining planes from Midway. A total of 12 B-17's claim 2 hits on 1 carrier. (no real hits.). A total of 12 dive bombers attack. This attack, like in real life, encounters clouds/bad weather and does nothing.


Early evening.


Nimitz must decide what to do next. The remaining cruisers/destroyers are covering Enterprise and/or carrying a lot of survivors.


Given the situation, Nimitz should believe the worst of the pre-battle intelligence. IE. There are 5 Japanese carriers and max number of troops to land on Midway




He'll be hearing advice to do:


a. Try to evacuate Midway? If he sends the remaining DD's there might/should be enough lift for everyone. Short/Long term morale effects, though, would cause problems. It will take time, as well, and some of the DD's will be in the area when the Japanese cruiser/dd Midway bombardment squadron arrives before day-break.


b. Leave orders alone. In which case, Midway would fight until the situation is hopeless and then surrender. Judging by Wake & Corriegidor, once the Japanese establish a beachhead, Midway would then surrender. (As far as Midway's commander knows, all the US carriers are sunk or leaving. There is no chance of quick reinforcements. To save lives, he'll surrender, unless, there is enough knowledge of Bataan Death March to change his mind.)


c. Tell Midway to fight for as long as possible because Saratoga is coming and her fresh air group will change the tactical situation. A quick counterattack should catch the Japanese by surprise. Their air groups would still be very depleted, and the BB's & CA will have used a lot of ammo shelling Midway. Their occupation troops would still be setting up and very vulnerable.


(US claims that Nimitz would have heard during the day: B-26's 2 torepedo hits on a carrier. TBF's 1 torepedo hit on a carrier. SBD's 3 hits on a carrier. B-17's 3 hits on 2 carriers, 1 carrier left burning. SB2U's 2 hits on battleship, left burning. Yorktown's attack left 1 carrier burning/sinking..)
based on this site: http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USN/USN-CN-Midway/index.html#CONT
also, from above:
Enterprise's afternoon attack left 1 carrier burning/sinking. B-17's afternoon attack 1 carrier hit.


Any advice? Right now, unless something changes my mind, I'll go with B.


Hopefully this is a good start.
thank you for reading
Jeff Shelton

Sounds neat.

How far away is Saratoga? Also do they have anything available to land on Midway when she arrives?

The problem the IJN have isn't actually defeating the US carrier force, its taking and holding Midway.

Which is somewhat improbable given the forces they have on hand - they were not nearly adequate for an invasion.

Even assuming they take, it, what do they then do with it? It's really too far from PH to be of good use, and supplying it in the face of US subs will be a nightmare.

As to the US withdrawing, I don't think they would. This is 1942, not 2015, I don't see the garrison commander surrendering until either the Japanese were ashore and winning, or he was starved out. Meanwhile, even with rubbish torpedoes, US sub are making life very difficult indeed for the Japanese fleet.

Love this kind of stuff. Hope i can help.

Something to ponder. I believe it is suggested that even if McClusky does not see Arashi, his box search would have likely gotten him close to Nagumo's position, but likely later than OTL. So probably Leslie attacks first in this case. Well, since everything is changed now, Nagumo didn't tried to avoid Nautilus in this TL, so he might be in a slightly different position by a few miles, different cloud cover etc. You could have someone spotting Leslie at the same time as the TBDs so a half a dozen Zeros are just in time to hinder his dive, and more alert ships below are putting a more sustained and AA barage, so Soryu is only near missed. Then a few minutes late say 10.30 you have McClusky coming and let's suppose they attack Hiryu and Soryu this time, the attacks still gets bungled and Best and his two wingmen miss the agile Hiryu, while Soryu is finished by large numbers of bombs from the 25 or so SBDs.

Going by the scenario proposed, with just Soryu hit, after the US attacks are gone, the japanese will begin to spot the following: 18 D3A from Hiryu, 26 B5N from Kaga, 17 B5N from Akagi (led by Murata). Fighter escort would be at least 12 possibly 15 Zeros imo, 6 Hiryu, 3 Akagi, and 3-6 Kaga.
In this TL, let's say even if some Zeros get sidetracked like OTL most of Yorktown's CAP cannot get to the bombers because there are enough Zeros to block them. Yorktown will suffer many hits especially torpedo that will cause it to sink with heavy casualties or at least go dead completely. Fletcher might even get killed. Estimated losses say 4 D3A, 8 B5N and 5 A6M. Let's assume 1/4 of the returning strike aircraft (14 D3A, 35 B5N) are damaged by flak or fighters and unserviceable for the next strike.

Historically the D4Y from Soryu, discovered ALL the US carriers but his message didn't got through, so he hurried back to deliver the message in person. By 13.00 Nagumo would KNOW there are 3 US carriers. The next strike would leave at about 13.30 and will commit of 17 D3A each from Akagi and Kaga - one was u/s and one was shot down during the Midway strike; a few more were damaged but useable- plus 9 B5N from Hiryu joined by TWO search B5Ns from Akagi and Kaga that have returned and been armed (since Kaga is not hit), plus again 9-12 Zeros. However this strike attacking TF16 will face much stronger CAP, at least 25-30 F4Fs, so likely it will be shredded. But let's assume the few survivors manage to hit Hornet with torpedoes and bombs and hit Enterprise with bombs as well. Also let's say just about a third of the bombers in this japanese strike returns, say 12 D3A, 4 B5N plus 5 Zeros, many damaged and unserviceable.


I'll continue in part 2.

Now as to the second american strike leaving abot 13.30 as you suggest. Historically the US carriers were cycling CAP and landing strike planes by that time, so they weren't ready, but in this TL let's say they heard over the radio that only one carrier was attacked and the Enterprise and Hornet strike missed them completely.

Let's also conveniently assume that the first japanese strike against Yorktown was delayed by 10 minutes in forming or launching, so that the Yorktown's remaining SBD (in this TL they suffered losses to Zeros, so let's say 12 returned) laded on her just before the japanese strike was detected on radar (in OTL Leslie was just about to land when Kobayashi was detected, so he was waved off and landed on Enterprise, or his squadron did, i think him and another SBD ditched). Therefore they will sink with the Yorktown.

What was available on Hornet and Enterprise? Say the Enterprise strike took as heavy losses as in OTL so just 15 return (with many ditched as Enterprise wasn't where they expected it to be), of which just 10 would be available. Also you have 20 SBDs on Hornet led by Ring, the rest having landed on Midway and would be unavailable for this strike. So you still have a strong strike of 30 SBDs. Spruance kept all the fighter for CAP just like OTL. Now i'm not sure how they find the japanese since the spotting report from Yorktown's search plane launched at 11.00 will not come until 14.45, but let's assume they find the burning Soryu and by a stroke of luck they get a radio message redirecting them to Nagumo's real position (difficult though, as Spruance would be under attack by the second japanese wave about 14.45), or they just turn north in a hunch.

As you say the japanese CAP is ready, let us say that two dozen Zeros manage to significantly hinder the SBD's strike, let's give the hits on Kaga to Ring, as he has 20 SBDs while only 10 from Enterprise would be easier deflected by Zeros. However SBD losses will again be heavy, through ditching rather than combat, so let's say half are shot down or ditch, with only about 15 recovered by the damaged Enterprise. However, she would still recover the 10 search SBD's off Yorktown, and even the 11 SBD's of Johnson who are returning from Midway. So she will be crowded and unable to launch another strike at short notice. But most likely with Yorktown dead, Hornet crippled and Enterprise damaged, Spruance HAS to retire now, unless he is willing to risk Enterprise, damaged, the last US carrier in the Pacific against an unknown number of remaining japanese CV.

Isn't it likely the Americans repulse an invasion regardless of the sea battle, a few thousand well prepared marines in base defense mode, with artillery, a few tanks, even a PT boat in the lagoon. There is a reef around the island so you have to land pretty far away and wade in.

USA submarines can still be about.

Likely after a couple thousand dead Japanese are floating around the water everybody packs up and goes home. The Americans can't do Guadalcanal later but probably can still take Buna from Port Moresby.

Let's see the THIRD japanese strike of the day, these being the returning planes that sunk Yorktown plus perhaps any useable planes from the strike that attacked TF16. Since Kaga was hit, let's assume that the returning B5Ns that landed on her would either have been destroyed in the bombing or can't be launched because of damage to her (with less planes on board and likely unarmed this time, no or much less torpedoes scattered around- presumbly they will prepare to re-arm the second strike that hit Yorktown- even if she burns badly it's likely she will not be scuttled in this TL if she maintains power).

Historically, the third attack from Hiryu (only a few planes remaining) was postponed from 16.30 to 18.00 to allow rest for the men. Let us say in this scenario the strike goes at 16.30 on Nagumo's orders to finnish the last remaining US forces, this strike is made of say 12 D3A and 3 B5N from Hiryu and 12 B5N and 6 D3A from Akagi escorted by 6 Zeros. They find the crippled Hornet -Enterprise having moved out of range so she is not spotted as you say -at dusk and sink her or cripple her even more, and attack the escorting ships. Still even if all of Enterprise's CAP are defending her there will be losses to AA and operational, so let's say another 4 D3A and 4 B5N.

As night comes, Nagumo BBs, cruisers and destroyers arrive on the scene and finish any cripples left behind (including couple of cruisers as you suggest).

So in this TL Nagumo won, but still at terrible price, just like Santa Cruz. Soryu sunk, Kaga badly damaged, and very heavy aircraft losses. Counting aircraft operational and damaged Akagi and Hiryu would be down to just about 35 Zeros, 20 D3A and 15 B5N, plus one D4Y. You can add another 9 Zeros from 6 Ku carried on Akagi and Hiryu, and possibly a handful of aircraft left intact on the damaged Kaga, if any.

So, all that is required is that the IJN utterly changes it long standing tactical methodology, gets every break possible, and outperforms its best effort, ever.

Seems reasonable.

No, Midway would not have been evacuated. It would have awaited what would have been a Keystone Kops uncoordinated assault by inferior sized forces, without proper landing craft for assaulting an atoll, going against what amounted to Tarawa on steroids washed down with crystal meth.
Odds are that the Japanese fail to take the islets, after tossing away around 7,000 total troops (a couple thousand in penny packets after the initial SNLF and IJN units were obliterated). The IJN heavies were carrying almost no bombardment shells, being armed for "the decisive battle" and tje IJN had an almost institutional paranoia about engaging in ship/shore gun duels (something that was not helped by the disaster off Wake).

Be a really, really good week to be a shark or a seagull.

So, what Nimitz does about Midway? Well, Midway can't be helped now from his POV, even historically he intended to let Midway fall if things got too rough. Well, they got pretty damn rough in this TL. If Enterprise is hit by a submarine while retreating, but they still manage to somehow tow her to Pearl, she will be in the yard for at least six months. Commiting Saratoga to battle with her ad-hoc airgroup would be foolish at best. Indeed Nimitz will be probably thinking that he's finished as it was his gamble to fight at Midway and now he lost 2 CV and a third crippled, and Midway is about to be invaded, so i doubt he will even think about sending Saratoga to attack the invasion fleet off Midway.

Really the only way it is possible for Nimitz to keep his seat is if the invasion fails. I have heard a lot of opinion on the subject, many are adamant the invasion can't ever succeed, the japanese didn't had a landing doctrine and their ships were not prepared to support landing and all that. Personally i think this is nonsense at best. I take the middle way and say they didn't go to Midway to occupy it if they didn't got ready for it. Oh sure, there are things that were lacking in their landing strategy compared to the US strategy (which wasn't that brilliant in 1942 either, don't compare 1942 to 1944, a whole different kettle of fish), but they weren't dumb.

So i believe that while some say that 9/10 the landing fails, i'm closer to 50/50. Much has been said about the US defences, comparing them to Tarawa. I would welcome correction, but i don't remember reading anything about concrete bunkers, beach walls and obstacles made from trees, and huge numbers of weapons, rather they had what, 5 tanks and two dozen coastal and AA guns (need to re-check the figures again)?

Kurita's 4 CAs will actually bomb Midway at dawn on the 5th this time, and probably more air attacks from Zuiho, Akagi and Hiryu will take place, and as the landing gets closer even more CA and even BBs (Kondo was supposed to help with that if necessary, that is what even Parshall & Tully say) bombardment might take place, as many as 8 CA, 2 BB plus numerous DD's and ships from the invasion force being involved at one point or another. Will it succeed? Well, regarding the US troops, remember they are not japanese. They do not fight to the last man like the japanese do. Like Wake, Bataan, Corregiddor and other places, when there is really no hope in sight they will think it is better to end it there. So really, the battle depends whether the japanese run out of men or the americans out of hope first.

Ironically, the "best" outcome for the japanese is if they lose. With 2000 men dead and failing to take Midway that will teach them a lesson about underestimating US defences, so that might make them be more cautious later. That is of course bad for US. You could see them commit more troops to fight at Port Moresby and Milne Bay, or for the FS operation. Especially with no Guadalcanal, all the troops historically swallowed by it would be diverted to FS or New Guinea. Possibly they will manage to take some or all those places, but i believe by that time the struggle would have became an attritional one just like Guadalcanal, only that the US would be forced to supply their forces at night, with even more horrendous losses compared to OTL, as the japanese would have naval superiority. So probably the americans might be forced to evacuate the New Hebrides like the japanese historically did at Guadalcanal, but i think that would be a far as the japanese would reach. They would probably have to whidraw from new Caledonia and Fiji if they got that far. Still, there's a good chance they could have taken Port Moresby, i don't know.

However, in this TL with 4 fleet carriers, 2 light and 2 XCV (Junyos) available to IJN, compared to just Saratoga and Wasp to US (and some CVEs), it would be suicide to pit them against Nagumo in the second half of 1942, it is likely they could end up being sunk or crippled by air attack or even subs. Perhaps they will keep them back as they did OTL after the battle for Guadalcanal.

If you look at a satellite map on the wikipedia page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midway_Atoll

It seems that reef would be hard to deal with, you have to land on that, then wade in waist deep water.

The islands are small enough that the Japanese could keep up covering fire most places, until you the SNLF got close, but a few working machine guns would cause a big mess.

Something to add to the above. Remember that Midway wasn't really Yamamoto's objective, but he wanted to kill the US fleet. So if they don't succeed to take Midway it's not a major disaster for them (except the troop losses)

But what happens if indeed Midway falls to the japanese? Well, probably Nimitz loses his seat for starters. Again, i have read a lot of adamant opinions on the subject, Wake serves as an example imo. There will be a submarine blockade and long range bombing from PBYs and B-24s flying from Pearl (i don't think B-17 has the range except for recce missions) but there will be nothing like the attrition in OTL Guadalcanal. The japanese will only send relatively small convoys once in a while (see Aleutians). I also imagine that the americans will think to move troops further up the hawaiian chain, build seaplane bases and possibly airfields closer to Midway, but i am not sure if there are any islands that could be used for airfields between Midway and Pearl. Edit: it appears French Frigate Shoals would be a candidate but would be too far for fighters and not sure if bombers could use it (they built an airfield there OTL). I also see that it might be possible for seabees to build an airfield on islands like Laysan and Lisianski, but they are very close to Midway. They could be tempting for the japanese though.

Similarly the japanese will try to set up seaplane bases further down the chain covered by aircraft from Midway. They could also bomb Pearl Harbour with H6Ks and H8Ks, but of course they will only be nuisance raids. Submarines could also use Midway as a transit point. I haven't found any info yet whether the G4M can attack a target as far as Pearl from Midway (about 1150 miles), so i assume they could be used for patrols and attacks on anything within range.

But the real effect is that the nuisance raids and the constant watch on movements at Pearl will probably force the americans to not only boost even more the defences but also whithdraw all the heavy ships like BBs and CVs to safer harbours (one lucky flying boat could hit one). So i think they will be under pressure to take Midway back as soon as possible in order to re-estabilish Pearl as the main base for the Pacific Fleet. Probably this is where they will employ Saratoga and Wasp while the japanese are busy in the south. It will be of course an even bloodier battle compared to the first Midway battle (in this ATL). This will probably be the US's first offensive rather than OTL Guadalcanal, and will not be surprised if the timing would be fairly close (sometime in the second half of 1942).

PS: It seems the only other island the japanese might be able to occupy if they win at Midway, from which they would be able to bomb Pearl with Rikkos is Johnston Island. Also, in their plan for the invasion of Oahu, they also intended to take Palmyra, presumbaly to protect Johnston and use it as search and relay base?

Also, despite what others say and regardless of the poor chances of success, i cannot but give them credit for planning to attack and estabilish themselves in the Hawaii island FIRST, isolating Oahu, the heaviest defended. This is the strategy used later in the US advance in the Pacific. They were certainly not dumb.

Catspoke said:

If you look at a satellite map on the wikipedia page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midway_Atoll

It seems that reef would be hard to deal with, you have to land on that, then wade in waist deep water.

The islands are small enough that the Japanese could keep up covering fire most places, until you the SNLF got close, but a few working machine guns would cause a big mess.

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As I noted, its Tarawa, but with better fortifications, more heavy machine guns, light tanks, PT boats inside the lagoon, command detonated mines, and a 7:5 defender:attacker ratio.

The U.S. his Tarawa with 35,000 troops, equipped with Amtracs, forward air controllers coordinating strikes from 11 fast carriers and 5 CVE, naval gunfire observers directing fire from 12 battleships and 8 CA (all of which were heavily loaded with bombardment shells), against ~2,500 Japanese combat troops and a roughly equal number of civilian laborers. The U.S. took the Atoll, at a cost of 1,069 KIA and 1,600 WIA. That was with a 6:1 advantage in numbers

The Japanese planned to have their assault troops wade across 2-400 yard of waist to chest deep water against defenses including 48 .50 cal hmg, 36 .30 cal mg, 37mm anti boat guns equipped to fire canister, 20mm dp guns, six light tanks, and some 1,500 IEDs put together by the Marine defense force while waiting for the attack. This does not include the 3" AAA, 5" and 7" anti-ship batteries (the 7" guns could penetrate the belt of the best IJN heavy cruisers at 12,000 yards). All told there were around 7,000 American personnel on Midway, mostly Marines, including Marine ground crew and some Naval and Army personnel, mainly ground crew. The total Japanese landing force, including two pure construction battalions, was under 5,000 men.

As noted above, great day to be a shark or a seagull.

Astrodragon said:

The problem the IJN have isn't actually defeating the US carrier force, its taking and holding Midway.

....

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I think Adm. Yamamoto was using the invasion and possible occupation of Midway to provoke the American Fleet to send the USN's carriers for that knock-out blow against the US CVs so that Imperial Japan can gain some more breathing space time and delay American counter-strikes as long as possible before her Industry reeves up in 1943........

This does not include the 3" AAA, 5" and 7" anti-ship batteries

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Six 5in guns, 22 3in guns and four 7in to be precise.

I'm trying to find any details whether the contruction batallions were given any weapons. All i could find is this

Beginning in November 1941, the Japanese Navy organized setsueitai ("construction units") composed mostly of Korean or Taiwanese semiskilled laborers led by Japanese officers and Japanese civilian overseers. These units never achieved more than a fraction of the capability of the U.S. Navy Seabees, but the failure of Japanese commanders to understand their limitations meant that they were often expected to do the impossible. They were supplemented by unskilled labor battalions during construction work and often were incorporated into konkyochitai ("base forces") for last-ditch defense.

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takerma said:

Sounds neat.

How far away is Saratoga? Also do they have anything available to land on Midway when she arrives?

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Saratoga arrives at Pearl june 7 in real life.

Astrodragon said:

The problem the IJN have isn't actually defeating the US carrier force, its taking and holding Midway.

Which is somewhat improbable given the forces they have on hand - they were not nearly adequate for an invasion.

Even assuming they take, it, what do they then do with it? It's really too far from PH to be of good use, and supplying it in the face of US subs will be a nightmare.

As to the US withdrawing, I don't think they would. This is 1942, not 2015, I don't see the garrison commander surrendering until either the Japanese were ashore and winning, or he was starved out. Meanwhile, even with rubbish torpedoes, US sub are making life very difficult indeed for the Japanese fleet.

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The Japanese fleet will have problems holding Midway, sure. It will take awhile, though, before that becomes a problem for the Japanese.

What I have planned is basically your statement of the Japanese were ashore and winning. In the confusion of battle, how will the US commander know?

He'll know that Japanese forces are ashore and more are coming. Why fight to the death?

Now, in real life, after the first month or so on Guadalcanal, I can see that happening.

But for most of the personal on Midway this is there first battle. Yes, 1st Marine Raider will fight, but they are not in command. They know that the US Navy is defeated. Reinforcements are not coming. Bataan fought and held out a long time, but that was planned. At this point in time, I can not see US forces fighting to the death.

mack8 said:

Love this kind of stuff. Hope i can help.

Something to ponder. I believe it is suggested that even if McClusky does not see Arashi, his box search would have likely gotten him close to Nagumo's position, but likely later than OTL. So probably Leslie attacks first in this case. Well, since verything is chnaged now, Nagumo he didn't tried to avoid Nautilus in this TL, he might be in a slightly different position by a few miles, diffrenet cloud cover etc. You could have someone spotting leslie at the same time as the TBDs so a half a dozen Zeros are just in time to hinder his dive, and more alert ships below are putting a more sustained and AA barage, so Soryu is only near missed. Then a few minutes late say 10.30 you have McLusky coming and let's suppose they attack Hiry and Soryu this time, the attacks still gets bungled and Best and his two wingmen miss the agile Hiryu, while Soryu is finished by large numbers of bombs from the 25 or so SBDs.

Going by the scenario proposed, with just Soryu hit, after the US attacks are gone, the japanese will begin to spot the following: 18 D3A from Hiryu, 26 B5N from Kaga, 17 B5N from Akagi (led by Murata). Fighter escort would be at least 12 possibly 15 Zeros imo, 6 Hiryu, 3 Akagi, and 3-6 Kaga.
In this TL, let's say even if some Zeros get sidetracked like OTL most of Yorktown's CAP cannot get to the bombers because there are enough Zeros to block them. Yorktown will suffer many hits especially torpedo that will cause it to sink with heavy casualties or at least go dead completely. Fletcher might even get killed. Estimates losses say 4 D3A, 8 B5N and 5 A6M. Let's assume 1/4 of the returning strike aircraft (14 D3A, 35 B5N) are damaged by flak or fighters and unserviceable for the next strike.

Historically the D4Y from Soryu, discovered ALL the US carriers but his message didn't got through, so he hurried back to deliver the message in person. By 13.00 Nagumo would KNOW there are 3 US carriers. The next strike would leave at about 13.30 and will commit of 17 D3A each from Akagi and Kaga - one was u/s and one was shot down during the Midway strike; a few more were damaged but useable- plus 9 B5N from Hiryu joined by TWO search B5Ns from Akagi and Kaga that have returned and been armed (since Kaga is not hit), plus again 9-12 Zeros. However this strike attacking TF16 will face much stronger CAP, at least 25-30 F4Fs, so likely it will be shredded. But let's assume the few survivors manage to hit Hornet with torpedoes and bombs and hit Enterprise with bombs as well. Also let's say just about a third of the bombers in this japanese strike returns, say 12 D3A, 4 B5N plus 5 Zeros, many damaged and unserviceable.


I'll continue in part 2.

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Hello, thank for the detailed note.

About your 1st Paragraph.

I considered something similar to that so the Japanese would have all 4 carriers available, but decided against it. Yorktown did well enough that I do want her to do well.

The numbers you are using in the last 2 paragraphs basically match my headnotes. The difference is the fighter direction defense of Hornet and Enterprise. From my reading, coordination was a problem. Planes being sent the wrong way, or wrong height, etc. Plus my reading of Hornet's behavior during the battle does not inspire me to assume much success for her, so I am assuming that her fighter direction is bad.

mack8 said:

Now as to the second american strike leaving abot 13.30 as you suggest. Historically the US carriers were cycling CAP and landing strike planes by that time, so they weren't ready, but in this TL let's say they heard over the radio that only one carrier was attacked and the Enterprise and Hornet strike missed them completely.

Let's also conveniently assume that the first japanese strike against Yorktown was delayed by 10 minutes in forming or launching, so that the Yorktown's remaining SBD (in this TL they suffered losses to Zeros, so let's say 12 returned) laded on her just before the japanese strike was detected on radar (in OTL Leslie was just about to land when Kobayashi was detected, so he was waved off and landed on Enterprise, or his squadron did, i think him and another SBD ditched). Therefore they will sink with the Yorktown.

What was available on Hornet and Enterprise? Say the Enterprise strike took as heavy losses as in OTL so just 15 return (with many ditched as Enterprise wasn't where they expected it to be, of which just 10 would be available. Also you have 20 SBDs on Hornet led by Ring, the rest having landed on Midway and would be unavailable for this strike. So you still have a strong strike of 30 SBDs. Spruance kept all the fighter for CAP just like OTL. Now i'm not sure how they find the japanese since the spotting report from Yorktown's search plane launched at 11.00 will not come until 14.45, but let's assume they find the burning Soryu and by a stroke of luck they get a radio message redirecting them to Nagumo's real position (difficult though, as Spruance would be under attack by the second japanese wave about 14.45), or they just turn north in a hunch.

As you say the japanese CAP is ready, let us say that two dozen Zeros manage to singificantly hinder the SBD's strike, let's give the hits on Kaga to Ring, as he has 20 SBDs while only 10 from Enterprise would be easier deflected by Zeros. However SBD losses will again be heavy, through ditching rather than combat, so let's say half are shot down or ditch, with only about 15 recovered by the damaged Enterprise. However, she would still recover the 10 search SBD's off Yorktown, and even the 11 SBD's of Johnosn who are returning from Midway. So she will be crowded and unable to launch another strike at short notice. But most likely with Yorktown dead, Hornet crippled and Enterprise damaged, Spruance HAS to retire now, unless he is willing to risk Enterprise, damaged, the last US carrier in the Pacific against an unknown number of remaining japanese CV.

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Again, Thank you.

Your numbers basically match mine, thoughts.

I give Enterprise the success on Kaga. Ring and Hornets air group was inexperienced and the only success Hornet had during the battle was against damaged Mogami and Mikuma. And they could not defend themselves.

Catspoke said:

Isn't it likely the Americans repulse an invasion regardless of the sea battle, a few thousand well prepared marines in base defense mode, with artillery, a few tanks, even a PT boat in the lagoon. There is a reef around the island so you have to land pretty far away and wade in.

USA submarines can still be about.

Likely after a couple thousand dead Japanese are floating around the water everybody packs up and goes home. The Americans can't do Guadalcanal later but probably can still take Buna from Port Moresby.

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Thank you

Midway had the 1st Marine Raider batt, about 1000 old guard marines. Probably the best infantry the US had at the time. The rest of the garrison was for the planes and to man the big guns of the Defense batt. NOT infantry.

There were 11 PT boats, but they would have attacked the Cruiser/DD bombardment squadron during the night/early dawn of June 5. This was their first fight. How much training did they have? Especial night battles. And their main weapon was US's, still crappy, torpedoes. How many hits would they get? and even if they hit, how much damage? IIRC, at Guadalcanal, the first night PT boat attack did no damage. (Yes, I think it was only 5-6 PT, not 11.) I'm willing to accept some damage from PT's, but nothing that would stop/delay the attack.

The same for the Subs, until the torpedoes are fixed, they can hurt the Japanese, but not stop them.
from Wiki Nautilus launched four torpedoes at the carrier from less than 3,000 yards (2,700 m). One failed to run, two ran erratically, and the fourth was a dud (a familiar problem for the Mark XIV), impacting amidships and breaking in half.[17]