Could Israel evacuate?

U.S David

Banned
I heard of plans from the US Goverment that if Israel was to have fallen at any time, they would send a fleet to get everyone out and offer US Citizenship to anyone who wanted it.


It would go back and forth to Europe intill everyone got out safley.

Could it have worked?
 
It would mean evacuating of bit over six million jews if all of them want out of Israel. Probably many of them decide try to leave in former Israel but still there is probably few million leavers. It would be very expensive operation and where to USA them all re-populate. Perhaps there should found state of New Israel. :D

I am not even sure that all politicians and common people in USA even would want so much people to their soil.
 
I think that "logistical nightmare" would be massive understatement for such an undertaking. I don't see a vaguely realistic context where such a thing is possible, but maybe the US General Staff is more imaginative than I am.
 
Hard to believe this was ever seriously planned, especially considering this would probably be attempted in the context of an ongoing Arab offensive or some sort of hostile Arab occupation.

However, the infux of six million people is something that could be handled by a nation of 180 million, and it would be widely accepted by most Americans given the fact that (a) many of these people would be secular educated westerners who could acculturate to US culture easily, (b) those that couldn't such as Hassidic people would find communites to accept them, and (c) there would be some sense by most Americans that it was a necessary thing to do (the Holocaust and US involvement in the establishment and defense of Israel would be remembered).

However, the notion that some sort of formal Jewish state in the union would be established for these immigrants is pure fantasy. That is not how the US federal system works
 
I heard of plans from the US Goverment that if Israel was to have fallen at any time, they would send a fleet to get everyone out and offer US Citizenship to anyone who wanted it.


It would go back and forth to Europe intill everyone got out safley.

Could it have worked?

I wonder if this was more of a contingency for the first years after Israeli was founded? Certainly after Israeli became a nuclear power I don't think it was seriously thought that Israeli would fall. I would imagine if the plans are still around there is probably dust on them and haven't been updated in decades.
 
I wonder if this was more of a contingency for the first years after Israeli was founded?

Might also be a staff exercise, like how the Pentagon supposedly has a plan to deal with an insurrection by the Girl Scouts.
 
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As a purely logistical thought-exercise, this has limited merit. I mean, it might be good staff training - how many ships do we need, where do we put them, how much fresh water, food, do we need? What about sundries like toothpaste and toilet paper?

Even if Israel falls (and no, I do not know how that happens), the firepower of 2-3 US CV Battle Groups should be enough to shield an evacuation zone.

Mike Turcotte
 
The Israeli population is about 8 million in total. During the final battle for East Prussia, there were around 10,000 people crammed on the decks of the Wilhelm Gustloff when it was sunk by a Soviet sub while evacuating people out of the area. Where in the world are there 800 ships each capable of holding 10,000 people?

The numbers by air are even more daunting: Using 747s carrying 400 people each, you'd need to complete 20,000 flights out of the country. That's one flight per minute out of Ben Gurion for two solid weeks. Even using military and other aircraft and filling them to the brim with people, I onder how one would scrounge up enough airplanes in the world to get that done. It would make the Berlin Airlift look like a Air National Guard weekend training exercise.
 
The Israeli population is about 8 million in total. During the final battle for East Prussia, there were around 10,000 people crammed on the decks of the Wilhelm Gustloff when it was sunk by a Soviet sub while evacuating people out of the area. Where in the world are there 800 ships each capable of holding 10,000 people?

The numbers by air are even more daunting: Using 747s carrying 400 people each, you'd need to complete 20,000 flights out of the country. That's one flight per minute out of Ben Gurion for two solid weeks. Even using military and other aircraft and filling them to the brim with people, I onder how one would scrounge up enough airplanes in the world to get that done. It would make the Berlin Airlift look like a Air National Guard weekend training exercise.
How about them driving out? Jordan would have been the weakest army so you hit them with some of the IDF or whatever it would called in order to punch a whole in the line then have a mass drive through it a la refugee movements at the end of WW2 or the Indian partition. Once there is a hole in the line the IDF divides into a spearhead to seize a port, a rearguard for obvious reasons and flank guards.

OK so there will be a lot of casualties and there is the matter of the final evacuation. Still if Jordan does not work out the refugees can refuel and buy time by heading into Saudi Arabia :D

A general point on numbers. 1.5 million Anatolian Greeks were evacuated after the war with Turkey post WW1. From a look of a map with arrows, maybe a million moved by sea. Apollo 20 is thus right to slag off an evacuation of Israel by air or sea. Mind you, my land evacuation is not very plausible either.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Yes, especially if Cyprus is available as the waypoint

I heard of plans from the US Goverment that if Israel was to have fallen at any time, they would send a fleet to get everyone out and offer US Citizenship to anyone who wanted it.


It would go back and forth to Europe intill everyone got out safley.

Could it have worked?


The Displaced Persons Act of 1948 and (amended) 1950 led to the emigration of some 415,000 European refugees; this was less than half of the 900,000 emigrants from Europe in the immediate postwar years.

The total population of Israel in 1949 (Jewish, Christian, Moslem, etc.) was under 1.2 million, which was less than the population of Nebraska in 1950 (total US pop was ~151 million).

Given the willingness of President Truman to recognize Israel and (generally) turn a blind eye to arms purchases from US-controlled stocks (including, at one point, the planned acquisition of an escort carrier), I would expect that if the Israeli population was truly endangered, the 6th Fleet and then UNRRA would be in a position to rescue any that so chose to be rescued...

In 1954-55, the French and US militaries evacuated some 600,000 refugees from what became North Vietnam to what became South Vietnam; the US could have evacuated more, of course.

Even today, with an Israeli population of ~8 million (of various faiths) the entire population of Israel numbers less than that of New Jersey or Virginia....spread across a nation of 312 million (2010 census), it would not be much.

Actually, there's a POD for what could be a pretty interesting AH - at any point in Israel's history, have the majority of the population call it a day and emigrate to the US...;)

Best,
 
Even if Israel falls (and no, I do not know how that happens), the firepower of 2-3 US CV Battle Groups should be enough to shield an evacuation zone.

Mike Turcotte

But there is only one Carrier Battle Group in the Mediterranean Sea. It takes time to send a 2nd or 3rd one there.

Of course as Greece and Turkey are NATO allies there could be Air Support via Cyprus or Turkey. But if Turkey stays out of it or declares ist neutrality than it will be a very different game.
 
Since six million can stay for a short while on Cyprus the first evacuation goes there OR, to Greece and then the evacuees move on their own through Europe.
 
Assuming that the invading Arab armies allow the removal of Jewish Israelis, a LARGE assumption, this is a huge undertaking. Today there are approximately 6 million plus Jews in Israel. Say that you have 5 million leaving, with 1 million dead or unwilling to leave, and the ASBs move them to one spot - now CARE for them. Food, water, medical care etc etc for that many people at once (even over a few weeks to a month) and just where do you put them. In all of the US military there is not enough empty barracks space and proper tentage to house 5 million people.

If you look at the hassle with the Mariel boat lift, and multiply that by 100,000 you see the issue.

Also, frankly, look at the cost of this. Not just moving these folks from Israel to the USA (or anywhere), but providing all sorts of services until they get settled. Sure the Israeli population is pretty well educated, and a large percentage speak English to a greater or lesser degree but will professionals get medical licenses, admitted to the bar, architect certification etc? Where are, at least in the short term, are the jobs for these folks - adding at least 1.5 million people if not more to the job market overnight is simply not going to happen. As a final note, expect that the vast majority of these folks will arrive in the USA (or anywhere) with little more than the clothes on their backs you can be sure that the invaders will not allow them to leave with (foreign) currency, jewelry, or similar valuables.*

*if you doubt this look at what is happening in Iraq, where Christians expelled from Mosul leave all behind and a re searched as they leave the ISIS controlled area and stripped of all money, gold, etc.
 
I am currently reading a book about the immediate post-war conditions in Europe. There were a lot more than 6 - 8 million people on the move in 1945 - 7 and eventually most got to a country where they felt safe.

The problem you have here is that people cannot walk or hitch-hike to a friendly nation like many in Europe and post partition India did.

The process would be done with the active co-operation of the Arab armies. They will not won't to kill 8 million Jews and would rather not have them living in a Arab occupied Israel.

The process would likely take months if not longer. Jews would likely be forcibly moved to refugee camps where they would be cared for be the US/UN and charities. Despite this conditions, especially in the height of summer would be horrid and If 6 million were evacuated I would expect about half a million to die in the process.

America would also probably not take all of the Jews. There might be a new effort to find them a homeland and Europe will likely take some especially if it happens a few decades into the existence of Israel (Israelis that were French or British or French would likely go back there)

It would be a defining part of the 20th century and would likely be the greatest movement of people in post-WWII history
 
The Israeli population is about 8 million in total. During the final battle for East Prussia, there were around 10,000 people crammed on the decks of the Wilhelm Gustloff when it was sunk by a Soviet sub while evacuating people out of the area. Where in the world are there 800 ships each capable of holding 10,000 people?

The numbers by air are even more daunting: Using 747s carrying 400 people each, you'd need to complete 20,000 flights out of the country. That's one flight per minute out of Ben Gurion for two solid weeks. Even using military and other aircraft and filling them to the brim with people, I onder how one would scrounge up enough airplanes in the world to get that done. It would make the Berlin Airlift look like a Air National Guard weekend training exercise.

I agree. Let's have a look.

1000 widebodies, 300 souls each. Fly out from Israel with people, land somewhere, fly back with fuel, repeat. Flight time 1hour there, turnaround time 30 minutes, so total time for there-and-back is three hours. Planes take off three minutes apart. So that's 20 planes per hour in the air per airport-pair (one airport for takeoff, another for landing). The limiting factor is number of airports. Let's assume Israel rustles up 50 airports with widebody runways from some magic bag. OK, now we have 1000 planes in the air per hour, that's 300,000 people evac'd per hour. Eight mllion people: say two million can't/won't go, so we're moving six million people. So that's six million people in twenty hours by 20,000 flights using 1,000 aircraft. Each aircraft makes 200 flights. Woo.

OK, now let's be more realistic.
1) At short notice Israel couldn't come up with more than, say, 5 widebody runways. So now we're up to 200 hours for the whole population.
2) Let's assume Boeing, US Air Mobility Command etc have an infinite number of pilots, engineers, spare parts and fuel. So the limiting factor is now time between takeoffs and turnaround time. Berlin Airlift IRL and World War Z in the film did this, but I'm not convinced, so let's move it up to one hour turnaround and ten minutes between takeoffs.
3) You need five destination airports within a few hours flight of Israel, each willing to accept six widebodies per hour of stateless Israelis. So that's Cyprus, UK, Ireland, Italy, France (possibly), Germany (ironic). Possibly Iran (irony), Iraq, India? Probably not Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Greece, Pakistan. So there is somewhere to go, even if it's only temporary pending further migration to USA.

So that's six takeoffs per hour per airport-pair, 5 widebody runways, so 30 takeoffs per hour, that's 30x300 = 9,000 people per hour. So that's 666 hours (yikes!) to do the whole six million.


That's 27 days. Whilst being invaded. Not easy.
 
Assuming that the invading Arab armies allow the removal of Jewish Israelis, a LARGE assumption, this is a huge undertaking. Today there are approximately 6 million plus Jews in Israel. Say that you have 5 million leaving, with 1 million dead or unwilling to leave, and the ASBs move them to one spot - now CARE for them. Food, water, medical care etc etc for that many people at once (even over a few weeks to a month) and just where do you put them. In all of the US military there is not enough empty barracks space and proper tentage to house 5 million people.

If you look at the hassle with the Mariel boat lift, and multiply that by 100,000 you see the issue.

Also, frankly, look at the cost of this. Not just moving these folks from Israel to the USA (or anywhere), but providing all sorts of services until they get settled. Sure the Israeli population is pretty well educated, and a large percentage speak English to a greater or lesser degree but will professionals get medical licenses, admitted to the bar, architect certification etc? Where are, at least in the short term, are the jobs for these folks - adding at least 1.5 million people if not more to the job market overnight is simply not going to happen. As a final note, expect that the vast majority of these folks will arrive in the USA (or anywhere) with little more than the clothes on their backs you can be sure that the invaders will not allow them to leave with (foreign) currency, jewelry, or similar valuables.*

*if you doubt this look at what is happening in Iraq, where Christians expelled from Mosul leave all behind and a re searched as they leave the ISIS controlled area and stripped of all money, gold, etc.

I think they would have all of the time they needed and Arab armies would have no say in the matter. The US just makes it clear to the Arab armies if you don't let them leave you are going to be hurt so bad that they would not need evacuation. Then have the balls to enforce it.
 
No country in the world could take that many refugees in by itself, even if it wanted to. The Israelis would have to disperse (again) and face the possibility of being divided and conquered (again).


I wonder what they'd do if space travel became a lot easier. Leave Earth? Sure, why not, what's Earth ever done for us?
 
The Displaced Persons Act of 1948 and (amended) 1950 led to the emigration of some 415,000 European refugees; this was less than half of the 900,000 emigrants from Europe in the immediate postwar years.

The total population of Israel in 1949 (Jewish, Christian, Moslem, etc.) was under 1.2 million, which was less than the population of Nebraska in 1950 (total US pop was ~151 million).

Given the willingness of President Truman to recognize Israel and (generally) turn a blind eye to arms purchases from US-controlled stocks (including, at one point, the planned acquisition of an escort carrier), I would expect that if the Israeli population was truly endangered, the 6th Fleet and then UNRRA would be in a position to rescue any that so chose to be rescued...

In 1954-55, the French and US militaries evacuated some 600,000 refugees from what became North Vietnam to what became South Vietnam; the US could have evacuated more, of course.

Even today, with an Israeli population of ~8 million (of various faiths) the entire population of Israel numbers less than that of New Jersey or Virginia....spread across a nation of 312 million (2010 census), it would not be much.

Actually, there's a POD for what could be a pretty interesting AH - at any point in Israel's history, have the majority of the population call it a day and emigrate to the US...;)

Best,

Curious. This means that the US could have very easily taken and absorbed the whole of the OTL Palestinian refugee population in 1948-1949 and then some almost without a blink. One wonders why it didn't happen.
 
I think they would have all of the time they needed and Arab armies would have no say in the matter. The US just makes it clear to the Arab armies if you don't let them leave you are going to be hurt so bad that they would not need evacuation. Then have the balls to enforce it.

The Arab armies would have very good reasons to let them go, indeed. It would still be a fairly complicated thing, to use the understatement of the century.
 
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