Say Stalin is shocked at the rate at which the germans are advancing into France and knows that he will be next since he's read mein kampf and knows about lebensraum and so orders a preemptive invasion of the reich. What happens?
WI:Soviet invasion of germany during the battle of france
- Thread starter idontlikesand
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Saphroneth
Banned
The attack screws up Sickle-Cut, and the French get a chance to recover. They might well do it.
Even if the Soviets are utterly defeated (I'm expecting initial success thanks to surprise followed by heavy losses and stalemate), this will instantly doom Germany and greatly benefit the Wallies thanks to two factors alone:
- Germany has to pull out troops from the west to send to the Eastern Front. The Battle of France was so close and lucky of a win for Germany that this will almost guarantee that France doesn't fall.
- This completely stops any Soviet economic trade shipments to Germany. Without Soviet oil, grain, manganese, and rubber shipments, the German economy and war machine will rapidly grind to a halt. In addition, Germany is incapable of conquering the necessary economic resources deep within the USSR thanks to the lack of strategic surprise and inability to concentrate forces. The Red Army will not fare well against Germany in the long term, but they can afford holding their ground at the cost of lopsided casualty ratios, and it's not a massive factor against an unprepared surprised Germany facing a two-front war and rapid economic starvation even if it manages to survive.
- Germany has to pull out troops from the west to send to the Eastern Front. The Battle of France was so close and lucky of a win for Germany that this will almost guarantee that France doesn't fall.
- This completely stops any Soviet economic trade shipments to Germany. Without Soviet oil, grain, manganese, and rubber shipments, the German economy and war machine will rapidly grind to a halt. In addition, Germany is incapable of conquering the necessary economic resources deep within the USSR thanks to the lack of strategic surprise and inability to concentrate forces. The Red Army will not fare well against Germany in the long term, but they can afford holding their ground at the cost of lopsided casualty ratios, and it's not a massive factor against an unprepared surprised Germany facing a two-front war and rapid economic starvation even if it manages to survive.
The USSR can't get at Germany without going through occupied Poland, and the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was drawn up for exactly this situation. Also, at this point even if France falls, Britain will be unlikely to (Germany's performance in Norway WRT naval actions was not stellar), and thus the USSR would be able to build up during that period. Also, after what happened in Finland would they want to risk fighting Germany?
An assault by the USSR on Germany in May 1940 would seriously upset things for Hitler!
While the Germans had left some good commanders in the east (IIRC Manstien was commanding an Infantry Corps in the east at the Beginning of the Invasion of Fance). I'm not sure that they could have initially withstood the Red Armys assault.
However getting the Red Army 'stacked up' ready to kick in the door is going to take time and get noticed and could result in Hitler not even launching the invasion of France or if already started calling a halt - digging in and moving forces east ASAP.
While the Germans had left some good commanders in the east (IIRC Manstien was commanding an Infantry Corps in the east at the Beginning of the Invasion of Fance). I'm not sure that they could have initially withstood the Red Armys assault.
However getting the Red Army 'stacked up' ready to kick in the door is going to take time and get noticed and could result in Hitler not even launching the invasion of France or if already started calling a halt - digging in and moving forces east ASAP.
Deleted member 1487
The problem is Finland, it happened just prior to the invasion of France and it seriously hurt the ability of the Soviets to operate militarily against anyone; then there was the fighting in Siberia against Japan and the occupation of Poland and later the Baltic States and Bessarabia. All of that created a massive dislocation in the Soviet military as infrastructure needed to be built, intelligensia arrested and liquidated, Soviet order established, guerillas to be fought, etc. Stalin was not able to attack in 1940. Germany pretty much had a free hand due to the Soviets still picking themselves back up after the mess they created starting with Finland, but also the various occupations they got into. The necessary annexations that would have allowed an invasion of Germany included Lithuania and Bessarbia, but these areas, including East Poland, were really badly infrastructured so attacking out of them with a military that had just given its all to defeat Finland is pretty much a recipe for disaster that would make the invasion of East Prussia in 1914 look extremely competent in comparison. There were just too many organizational and logistical factors preventing it.
Arguably the 'best' time to attack prior to the German invasion in 1941 was during the Balkans Campaign of April-May 1941. The maximum number of German forces are diverted in all other theaters and the Red Army was recovered enough to do something, provided they didn't try expansion, reorganization, equipment upgrades, and purges all at the same time.
thaddeus
Donor
what if the Soviets grabbed the Romanian oilfields?
even if they drain troops out of their sections of Poland to the point of losing it to a German counterattack, so what?
and they might be able to enlist (a new government in) Bulgaria in the enterprise?
and if everything goes poorly for the Soviets AND assuming a strong resistance by the Romanians, they could probably render the oilfields inoperable as they did (OTL) with their own fields at Maykop?
a bitter pill for Germany by 1941
even if they drain troops out of their sections of Poland to the point of losing it to a German counterattack, so what?
and they might be able to enlist (a new government in) Bulgaria in the enterprise?
and if everything goes poorly for the Soviets AND assuming a strong resistance by the Romanians, they could probably render the oilfields inoperable as they did (OTL) with their own fields at Maykop?
a bitter pill for Germany by 1941
Things can't get much worse than Barbarossa was. And it places Hitler on the wrong foot and leads to all sorts of unfavorable bufferflies for him. France might be encouraged to fight on from the colonies and the thought of surrender would never cross Britain's mind as long as there were allies still fighting on the continent.
Deleted member 1487
After Finland, Romania would be a hard nut to crack. It was far more populous, had a much larger and well equipped military, there was bad infrastructure on the border, and major river defense lines. Plus now the Red Army was a mess after Winter War, so the Germans could pump in troops, as would the Italians without hesitation given their close relationship with Romania, slowly and the Soviets would get bogged down very quickly until greater commitments of German troops could move into Poland. The oil regions were well south of the combat zones and were protected by river lines and mountains, thus lots of defensible terrain. It would be the Odessa campaign of 1941 in reverse before the Germans go involved; it would be a bad mistake for the Soviets to attack Romanian in 1940 or 1941.
Romanian army in WW2:
http://www.flamesofwar.com/hobby.aspx?art_id=1734
Though lacking on the offense, in terms of defense, their military was well capable of defending well in their terrain, even with obsolete equipment, as most of what they would be facing offensively from Russia would be old equipment in 1940 or even 41, plus a Red Army that was still suffering from the Winter War. Plus they would get German and Italian help pretty quickly after a Russian invasion if absolutely necessary.
Romania in 1940:
map of Romanian oil (red spots):
Here is a terrain map of the modern area:
thaddeus
Donor
thanks as always for the maps and info.
would Italy even enter the war if Soviets were attacking from the east? (not clear from OP exactly when Stalin acts?)
my scenario (and expectation) would be the Soviets DO perform poorly but are able to damage Romanian oilfields somewhat coupled with ending oil exports to Germany that could cripple Axis operations quickly. certainly they would have zero reserves left? hampering any invasion of USSR.
if not Romania, stir the pot in Bulgaria and encourage a breakaway Serbia? really anything to delay a German invasion for a period of time AFTER they stop selling them oil, allowing their reserves to disappear.
I have to say, having been to Romania, I would not want to be the Soviet troops trying to push through the Carpathians in 40/41. Later when they had good/better equipment it might not be so bad (but still not good), but those mountains are going to really hamper the Soviet forces that early in the war.
Seems like attacking in 1940 would've been a catastrophe for the Soviets. It seems quite likely, however, that it would have dislocated the Germans enough to have cost them a quick (or any) victory in France.
So, it'd be a case of Russia taking it on the chin on France's behalf.
Sounds a lot like WW1; I doubt Stalin would have missed the resemblance. And I very much doubt that he would've chosen to follow that path, given how it worked out last time, and particularly given that this time Russia had no treaty obligation towards France.
So, it'd be a case of Russia taking it on the chin on France's behalf.
Sounds a lot like WW1; I doubt Stalin would have missed the resemblance. And I very much doubt that he would've chosen to follow that path, given how it worked out last time, and particularly given that this time Russia had no treaty obligation towards France.
Attacking in '40, say after the encirclement of allied troops in Flanders, would be a winning move for Stalin
1a) a concentrated attack by the many thousands of soviet aircraft, located basically a stone throw away from Ploesti, would seriously disrupt production at the refineries, well before Germany or Italy get a chance to move in fighters and AAA in the area - this in itself would ruin the axis war effort long term (short term they still have reserves)
OR
1b) France tells Romania to join in or else they throw them to the wolves. Carol might just comply and join the allies (+soviets). This screws over Germany even more.
2. Soviet trade with Germany would stop a year early - again devastating
3. the Allies would not abandon Narvik. The Soviets meanwhile would do their best to blockade iron ore shipments from the northern Baltic port of Lulea. While not 100% effective, it would surely slow down shipments to a trickle. This means that once the Germans use up the iron ore stockpiles they took over in the west, their war production would be down by a third (Swedish iron ore represented ~38% of their total)
4. as others have said, France may decide to fight on. This will drag things on in the west by about a month, thus allowing the trend of Germany loosing more and more equipment (especially aircraft) from attrition and wear&tear to continue
5. It will be autumn before the Heer redeploys enough forces in the east for a general counter-offensive. By then, the Soviets are probably firmly entrenched along the Vistula, and autumn rains are fast approaching
6. If we're going with 1b.(Romania joins) and France has relocated to Algeria, then, if Italy attacks Greece, the whole Balkans may go allied, as Yugoslavia also joins in and crushes Italian positions in Albania in conjunction with Greece
Even in a worst-case scenario, where Romania doesn't join and France still surrenders, the situation is much better for the Allies. The German economy is much worse off than OTL (with production set to be reduced by a third in about a year and oil production severely disrupted) and the Soviets get to engage the Germans on much more favorable odds. They will still loose the fight in central Poland come autumn, no doubt about that, but the ensuing winter will provide a very good "training" for Soviet forces. I doubt the Germans manage to get across the Dnepr ITTL, if they even reach it that is.
1a) a concentrated attack by the many thousands of soviet aircraft, located basically a stone throw away from Ploesti, would seriously disrupt production at the refineries, well before Germany or Italy get a chance to move in fighters and AAA in the area - this in itself would ruin the axis war effort long term (short term they still have reserves)
OR
1b) France tells Romania to join in or else they throw them to the wolves. Carol might just comply and join the allies (+soviets). This screws over Germany even more.
2. Soviet trade with Germany would stop a year early - again devastating
3. the Allies would not abandon Narvik. The Soviets meanwhile would do their best to blockade iron ore shipments from the northern Baltic port of Lulea. While not 100% effective, it would surely slow down shipments to a trickle. This means that once the Germans use up the iron ore stockpiles they took over in the west, their war production would be down by a third (Swedish iron ore represented ~38% of their total)
4. as others have said, France may decide to fight on. This will drag things on in the west by about a month, thus allowing the trend of Germany loosing more and more equipment (especially aircraft) from attrition and wear&tear to continue
5. It will be autumn before the Heer redeploys enough forces in the east for a general counter-offensive. By then, the Soviets are probably firmly entrenched along the Vistula, and autumn rains are fast approaching
6. If we're going with 1b.(Romania joins) and France has relocated to Algeria, then, if Italy attacks Greece, the whole Balkans may go allied, as Yugoslavia also joins in and crushes Italian positions in Albania in conjunction with Greece
Even in a worst-case scenario, where Romania doesn't join and France still surrenders, the situation is much better for the Allies. The German economy is much worse off than OTL (with production set to be reduced by a third in about a year and oil production severely disrupted) and the Soviets get to engage the Germans on much more favorable odds. They will still loose the fight in central Poland come autumn, no doubt about that, but the ensuing winter will provide a very good "training" for Soviet forces. I doubt the Germans manage to get across the Dnepr ITTL, if they even reach it that is.
Deleted member 1487
The problem is getting the Soviets to turn on a dime; they were in full recovery mode in 1940, so had little to move quickly with against Romania, not to mention they weren't able to move quickly period. In terms an air assault, Romania had their own capable fighters that could have taken Russian bombers, but they lacked enough bases in range to use more than a few hundred bombers; in 1940 what type of bombers did the Russians have that had the payload and range hit Ploesti? A few dozen strategic bombers? How much ordnance did they have left after the Winter War? They had lost 1000 bombers in the Winter War for instance, but less than half in combat.
The Pe-2 bomber wasn't in service until 1941 for instance, same with the Tu-2.
There were these:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petlyakov_Pe-8
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_DB-3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_SB
But this came in 1941:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yermolayev_Yer-2
The problem is concentrating these bombers without anyone noticing; the Germans were very committed to signals recon at this point and were IIRC doing some overflights too, especially after Stalin started demanding more of Romania than he was given in the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact; Stalin wanted to avoid war with the West until it he was ready, and he was not in 1940 nor in 1941. He was also very paranoid that the would unite the West against him. Italy would be able to react much faster than Germany if the Soviets start moving in May 1940, as they are technically at peace and have a very good relationship with the Romanians. They can get hundreds of fighters to supplement the hundreds of Romanian fighters, as the Italians depended on Romanian oil too and hated Stalin and the Soviets; they would get involved in a heart beat if they could.
On the ground the Soviets couldn't move quickly enough to invade before the Germans counter attacked, especially if Stalin is just reacting to the unexpected German success in France, as it would take months to line up even a limited offensive. In the air perhaps the soviets could mount a bombing offensive, but that too would take time to reorient the air force and result in a German attack. The Battle of Britain would be put off and the full weight of the Luftwaffe, not diminished by the BoB or the Blitz would come down hard on Stalin. He would be able to avoid a major invasion until 1941, but in the meantime he would be getting a major air war that he would lose very badly and less time to modernize and recover his forces after the Winter War. Its just a bad move all around because he cannot really damage the Romanian oil fields enough to put the Axis out of operation before he gets attacked.
The Pe-2 bomber wasn't in service until 1941 for instance, same with the Tu-2.
There were these:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petlyakov_Pe-8
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_DB-3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_SB
But this came in 1941:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yermolayev_Yer-2
The problem is concentrating these bombers without anyone noticing; the Germans were very committed to signals recon at this point and were IIRC doing some overflights too, especially after Stalin started demanding more of Romania than he was given in the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact; Stalin wanted to avoid war with the West until it he was ready, and he was not in 1940 nor in 1941. He was also very paranoid that the would unite the West against him. Italy would be able to react much faster than Germany if the Soviets start moving in May 1940, as they are technically at peace and have a very good relationship with the Romanians. They can get hundreds of fighters to supplement the hundreds of Romanian fighters, as the Italians depended on Romanian oil too and hated Stalin and the Soviets; they would get involved in a heart beat if they could.
On the ground the Soviets couldn't move quickly enough to invade before the Germans counter attacked, especially if Stalin is just reacting to the unexpected German success in France, as it would take months to line up even a limited offensive. In the air perhaps the soviets could mount a bombing offensive, but that too would take time to reorient the air force and result in a German attack. The Battle of Britain would be put off and the full weight of the Luftwaffe, not diminished by the BoB or the Blitz would come down hard on Stalin. He would be able to avoid a major invasion until 1941, but in the meantime he would be getting a major air war that he would lose very badly and less time to modernize and recover his forces after the Winter War. Its just a bad move all around because he cannot really damage the Romanian oil fields enough to put the Axis out of operation before he gets attacked.
Deleted member 1487
The oil fields are too far south through very rough terrain and river lines and a compressed from to get around the Carpathians. The Italians would get troops in too quickly for Stalin to breakthrough, especially given the state of the Red Army after the Winter War. Bulgaria hated the Soviets and deeply feared a Soviet push into the Balkans; they would stay out and give clandestine support to Romania. Yugoslavia was a Serbian monarchy and wouldn't be too keen on supporting Stalin either, plus was relatively happy trading with Germany at this point.
The only way for Stalin to hit the oilfields is via the air with his bomber force, by they are damaged too by the Winter War, short on munitions, and would quickly find that the Italians were getting involved to protect their oil source; plus the romanians did have a fair few modern fighters. By the time Stalin could react to the German victory in Flanders, it would take months to organize a bombing offensive against Romania, by which time the Germans would have finished France and would be recovered enough to damage Stalin with an air offensive themselves.
What was the German order of battle in the East in May, 1940? How many divisions? Not a lot is my guess. Anyone got some hard numbers on that?