An alternative to Sakoku

Japan shut her borders to almost all entrance and exit in the 1630s, some say because of fear of new ideas entering the country, some say as a move to increase the power of the Shogunate, some say to prevent the southern daimyo from gaining too much power. Yet Red Seal Ships provided lucrative trade revenues with Japanese influence already being seen as far away as Thailand a generation earlier with Japanese built ships making calls into ports as far away as Acapulco. So with that in mind, should the Shogunate permit foreign trade only by Japanese-built and Japanese-crewed ships with the caveat that all of it not already established with China (at Nagasaki) or Korea (at Tsushima) pass through *only* the city of Edo/Tokyo (under Tokugawa control), what happens?
 
Despite isolating herself, Japan still conducted vital trade with Asian nations. Mostly Korea for the resources which Japan lacked.
The Sakoku only really applied to European nations who were obsessed with spreading Christianity (the Dutch being the only exception). It supposedly came down to a Spanish ship containing missionaries and cannons headed for Mexico getting blown off course and crashing in Japan. Some of the sailors boasted that the Japanese Christians would support their invasion when it came.
In hindsight, it would've been better for them if they did what you say and just allowed foreign trade by Japanese-built and Japanese-crewed ships. If they did, the new ideas might start flowing in better.
Would the Dutch still be isolated to that little island in your scenario? Or are they permitted more access to Japan?
 

PhilippeO

Banned
Tokyo is probably too sensitive place to allow foreigner entry, other location is better. there are many variation possible :

unlimited trade in Yokohama port : + prevent contact between daimyo and westerner + near Shogun castle (and armies) - danger from westerner ship to Tokyo

unlimited trade in Osaka (or Sakai) : + prevent contact between daimyo and westerner - too near Emperor court in Tokyo - give westerner access to Japan Inner Sea

unlimited trade in KitaKyushu (or Hataka) : + in Kyushu, so Westerner influence can be limited. - there already too many Christian influence in Kyushu - there are many powerful daimyo on Kyushu

give one loyal daimyo right to trade with westerner (Nagoya under shinpan daimyo) : - may make daimyo become too powerful + limit westerner influence

allow japanese crewed ship to have red seal - captain might secretly negotiate with westerner overseas - smuggling -smuggling weapon +japanese influence abroad

the effect is unknown, its entirely possible Shogunate is simple too stable to not have disruption with opener relation with outside Japan, or it might help de-stabilize Japan and trigger another revolt.

Rangaku studies is closely watched by shogunate, and there are evidence that even limited influence could cause disaster : Thailand, Madagascar, Taiping Rebellion. sometime idea had outsize influence.
 
Tokyo is probably too sensitive place to allow foreigner entry, other location is better. there are many variation possible :

unlimited trade in Yokohama port : + prevent contact between daimyo and westerner + near Shogun castle (and armies) - danger from westerner ship to Tokyo

unlimited trade in Osaka (or Sakai) : + prevent contact between daimyo and westerner - too near Emperor court in Tokyo - give westerner access to Japan Inner Sea

unlimited trade in KitaKyushu (or Hataka) : + in Kyushu, so Westerner influence can be limited. - there already too many Christian influence in Kyushu - there are many powerful daimyo on Kyushu

give one loyal daimyo right to trade with westerner (Nagoya under shinpan daimyo) : - may make daimyo become too powerful + limit westerner influence

allow japanese crewed ship to have red seal - captain might secretly negotiate with westerner overseas - smuggling -smuggling weapon +japanese influence abroad

the effect is unknown, its entirely possible Shogunate is simple too stable to not have disruption with opener relation with outside Japan, or it might help de-stabilize Japan and trigger another revolt.

Rangaku studies is closely watched by shogunate, and there are evidence that even limited influence could cause disaster : Thailand, Madagascar, Taiping Rebellion. sometime idea had outsize influence.

Methinks that after more Christian-peasant rebellions, the religion might get banned. And after the Japanese figure out that the Portuguese use 'trading' to bring missionaries...
 
Methinks that after more Christian-peasant rebellions, the religion might get banned. And after the Japanese figure out that the Portuguese use 'trading' to bring missionaries...

Weren't Christian-peasant rebellions also caused by high taxation on the peasants?
 
Weren't Christian-peasant rebellions also caused by high taxation on the peasants?

Not sure, but I'm fairly certain that they weren't caused solely by the fact that the peasants were Christian. It was some external factor, but the Japanese blamed the Christianity-part.
 
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