Where could The Israelis evacuate to after a 1948 defeat?

If Israel did not make it during its War of Independence, would there be a large Jewish refugee wave to christian Lebanon, just like exodus of Palestinian Refugees to the country IOTL.

If not, where could they evacuate to and how could they got there?

I seem to recall that there was a British plan before 1948 (possibly much earlier) to start a Jewish community in Sierra Leone on the West Coast of Africa rather than allowing a wave of displaced European Jewish refugees to surge into Palestine.

I'm not sure what happened to this plan or if it was even taken seriously at the time.

My google fu has failed me - unfortunately I found nothing on the web.

Cryhavoc101 said:

I seem to recall that there was a British plan before 1948 (possibly much earlier) to start a Jewish community in Sierra Leone on the West Coast of Africa...

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The proposal put to the Theodore Herzl and the Zionist movement in 1903 was for a Jewish homeland in Uganda. The proposal was debated by the Zionist Congress and rejected in 1905. Lest anyone get the idea that the British had just though of the most remote and unattractive dumping ground they could thing of, at the time Uganda was considered 'the Pearl of Africa'.

A later plan, dating from the late 1930s through until 1944, was that of Isaac Steinberg for a Jewish homeland in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Steinberg was a Territorialist: they wanted a Jewish homeland as part of Australia, not distinct from it. Steinberg won the support of the Australian Council of Trades Unions and the Australian Labor Party, including then Federal Opposition Leader John Curtin. Curtin however changed his mind once he became Prime Minister, writing to Steinberg that his government 'would not depart from the long-established policy in regard to alien settlement in Australia' - a reference to the White Australia Policy then in place.

Curtin's statement is suspiciously disingenuous and deserves further investigation; the White Australia Policy did not apply north of the Tropic of Capricorn and never had, the reason being that the tropical climate ‘was not conducive to the flourishing of the white race’ – i.e. it was too hot for the English. Nor had Jews in Australia suffered significantly from Anti-Semitism: there had been Jews in the country since the First Fleet, the first Australian-born Governor-General was Sir Isaac Isaacs, and Australia’s greatest military leader in World War One was the revered General Sir John Monash – also Jewish. Prior to WW2, Jewish immigration from Germany and Poland was restricted, not because they were considered Jews, but ironically because they were considered Germans and Poles!

Green Painting said:

If Israel did not make it during its War of Independence, would there be a large Jewish refugee wave to christian Lebanon, just like exodus of Palestinian Refugees to the country IOTL.

If not, where could they evacuate to and how could they got there?

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Lebanon was a hostile combatant in the 1948 War, invading the Galilee. The Jews would have had no place in Lebanon.

Cryhavoc101 said:

I seem to recall that there was a British plan before 1948 (possibly much earlier) to start a Jewish community in Sierra Leone on the West Coast of Africa rather than allowing a wave of displaced European Jewish refugees to surge into Palestine.

I'm not sure what happened to this plan or if it was even taken seriously at the time.

My google fu has failed me - unfortunately I found nothing on the web.

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Given Zionist terrorism and murder over the course of the previous five years I doubt the British government would be inclined to do much for them.

jamhaw said:

Given Zionist terrorism and murder over the course of the previous five years I doubt the British government would be inclined to do much for them.

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Then the French? Or the Italians?

Refugees are meant to be disarmed, so not even Irgun or Lehi would be much of a threat once they get to the other side of the Mediterranean.

Even if no foreign evacuation operation was carried out, there must be some who can afford a boat.

jamhaw said:

Given Zionist terrorism and murder over the course of the previous five years I doubt the British government would be inclined to do much for them.

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Well there is that side granted (knew a couple of 'Palestinian Policemen' and they had some eye opening stories) but Britain would be the only major Med power and therefore the only force capable of rescuing them in such a situation.

I don't think that they (perhaps acting on behalf of a UN Mandate) would stand idly by while the Jewish community in Palestine once again gets massacred for what ever reason.

Cryhavoc101 said:

I don't think that they (perhaps acting on behalf of a UN Mandate) would stand idly by while the Jewish community in Palestine once again gets massacred for what ever reason.

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I admit, I haven't really studied the 1948 war, but from what I know the fears of a second Holocaust seem a bit overblown.

Cryhavoc101 said:

I don't think that they (perhaps acting on behalf of a UN Mandate) would stand idly by while the Jewish community in Palestine once again gets massacred for what ever reason.

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No, of course not. They'd issue strong diplomatic rebukes to the Arab nations involved.

Seriously, though. Who's going to intervene in the midst of a genocide and rescue the victims. Especially immediately after WWII, with all the powers exhausted and broke (well, the US wasn't broke). You'd have to go in with a large military force to stop the fighting - and since the fighting has not only been well started, but, by OP, the Israelis are losing badly (presumably mostly overrun) - it would have to be a large force and it would be perceived to be Pro-Jewish, even if it wasn't.

If the Israelis had a hold out position on/near the coast, Haifa and/or Tel Aviv, say, then the RN and other navies would no doubt rescue a few thousand from there. But where are they going to go? Look how very few Jews the US took before WWII. I'm sure a handful of thousands of refugees could be rescued and resettled. Although they may be in refugee camps for years before a permanent home is found.

No. I suspect that close to a majority of Jews in Israel would be dead in this scenario, and the remaining ones worse off than OTL's Palestinians.

I imagine a token rescue effort would be made, but it would be too little, to late.

US policy toward DPs was hugely different in 1945 and after than

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

If the Israelis had a hold out position on/near the coast, Haifa and/or Tel Aviv, say, then the RN and other navies would no doubt rescue a few thousand from there. But where are they going to go? Look how very few Jews the US took before WWII. I'm sure a handful of thousands of refugees could be rescued and resettled. Although they may be in refugee camps for years before a permanent home is found.

No. I suspect that close to a majority of Jews in Israel would be dead in this scenario, and the remaining ones worse off than OTL's Palestinians.

I imagine a token rescue effort would be made, but it would be too little, to late.

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US policy toward DPs was hugely different in 1945 and after than it was in 1940 and before, obviously. The Displaced Persons Act of 1948 and (amended) 1950 led to the emigration of some 415,000 European refugees; this was less than half of the 900,000 emigrants from Europe in the immediate postwar years.

The total population of Israel in 1949 (Jewish, Christian, Moslem, etc.) was under 1.2 million, which was less than the population of Nebraska in 1950 (total US pop was ~151 million).

Given the willingness of President Truman to recognize Israel and (generally) turn a blind eye to arms purchases from US-controlled stocks (including, at one point, the planned acquisition of an escort carrier), I would expect that if the Israeli population was truly endangered, the 6th Fleet and then UNRRA would be in a position to rescue any that so chose to be rescued...

Even today, with an Israeli population of ~8 million (of varioius faiths) the entire population of Israel numbers less than that of New Jersey or Virginia....spread across a nation of 312 million (2010 census), it would not be much.

Actually, there's a POD for what could be a pretty interesting AH - at any point in Israel's history, have the majority of the population call it a day and emigrate to the US...

Best,

jamhaw said:

Given Zionist terrorism and murder over the course of the previous five years I doubt the British government would be inclined to do much for them.

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Oh, I dunno. The Arab revolt of 1936-9 killed and wounded some 800 British security forces, but they didn't exactly give up on the Arabs afterward. Unless the British were just terribly anti-Jewish, I can't think why they'd react differently. That'd be a pretty serious double standard, don't you think?

This is only a feeling based on half remembered conversations with relatives stationed in Palestine in the late 40s but Irgun and the other Jewish organisations really p****d off the British far more than the Arabs had done. Whether that would have stopped a relief effort for refugees fleeing the collapsing Israel I don't honestly know but doubt it.

What were Arab goals in 1948? Were they going for simple domination of Jews by a Palestinian government, mass deportation or genocide?

Lindseyman said:

This is only a feeling based on half remembered conversations with relatives stationed in Palestine in the late 40s but Irgun and the other Jewish organisations really p****d off the British far more than the Arabs had done. Whether that would have stopped a relief effort for refugees fleeing the collapsing Israel I don't honestly know but doubt it.

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The problem with anecdotal information is not that it is wrong, but rather that it cannot be quantified. Were those particular individuals more po'd than others? Would those individuals have been just as outraged by Arab attacks in 1936-9? These questions cannot be answered satisfactorily.

But I, too, doubt the British government would've stopped a relief effort for refugees fleeing Israel. It would reflect very poorly upon the government to do so, especially given previous British promises to the Jews, given the recent Holocaust, and especially if Arab victory was accompanied by widespread massacres (which given Husseini's warm and approving wartime relationship with the Nazi's, and his great influence in Palestine throughout the period, is certainly not implausible).

Jape said:

What were Arab goals in 1948? Were they going for simple domination of Jews by a Palestinian government, mass deportation or genocide?

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They wanted to destroy the Jewish state and eliminate anything that would pose a threat to Arab control over the entire mandate. I don't see the entirety of the territory being ethnically cleansed, but I anticipate there would be plenty of local massacres. Probable deportation of any Zionist leadership as well as any Jews who arrived in the region after a certain date. I would guess a certain number of "native" Jews would be allowed to stay provided they knew their place and faced de facto, if not de jure, discrimination. It is possible that int he short term, heavily Jewish areas like Tel Aviv would remain, but I doubt their long term viability in an Arab controlled state. Unofficial policy would be to "encourage" as many Jews to self-deport as possible. I think most would probably flee.

It would be a huge humanitarian disaster in the short term. Initial refugee camps likely in Cyrpus which was nearby and controlled by Britain. I suspect those Jews who previously lived in Western Europe would return to their countries of origin if possible. The rest would probably migrate to various immigrant nations like US, Canada, and Australia. I imagine several Latin American nations would be popular as well. A few hard core socialists might be stupid enough to move to the Soviet bloc.

Unlike with the Palestinians, there is unlikely to be a separate refugee system just for them. Nor would the places the refugees go refuse to incorporate them into their own countries, so within a decade the refugee crisis would be over and the Jews involved in the affairs of the states they fled to.

Alaska. Read The Yiddish Policemans Union. Haven't read much of it, don't know if its ASB or just AH, but its a really good book.

Richard Harrow said:

I admit, I haven't really studied the 1948 war, but from what I know the fears of a second Holocaust seem a bit overblown.

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well it wouldn't be nice, 630,000 Jews being thrown out on very short notice

at a guess first stop is to those camps in Cyprus would be first stop, the US, Canada and maybe the UK would be the the main stops, but I doubt any Jewish state would happen, though I'd guess that the Jewish Agency would be around in exile as a small sad group of dreamers

in OTL East Jerusalem was totally closed off to Jews (despite Jordan saying the holy sites would be open to them) the Jews thrown out of the Jewish quarter, all the Synagogues were destroyed, the tomb stones Mount of Olives were used to pave roads and public bathrooms, we might look for similar behavior in the rest of Arab Palestine, a total removal of Jewish life, both Jewish people and signs of them

I would tentatively suggest Kurdistan, there is some mutual respect between the Kurds and Israelis in modern OTL times, I'm not sure what it would be in 1948 though, or if they could or would afford the Israelis protection. If they did then it's possible you get some sort of Kurd-Israeli state, probably democratic, maybe leftist, with a mixture of kurds and jews, and I think it's possible with their combined efforts they could fight off Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Again I'm not too sure about any of this, it needs a plausibility check.

jamhaw said:

Now where would the Jews go? That is a question as I don't think the British would want them either in Britain or the colonies, and although the French had at times been supportive of the Jews over the previous few years I believe that was as much about embarrassing the British as anything, I don't think the French would really want them on the mainland in any great quantity. I suppose it depends on how many there are, I suppose quite a few of them could end up (re)turning to West Germany which could probably be forced to accept the exiles. But the introduction of a very large number of Jews could cause domestic issues which people could be wary of. Does anyone have any idea how many exiles you would wind up with? I have always been a little wary of the notion that there would be a Second Holocaust but I admit I haven't researched Arab positions in this war in any detail. I think Blackfox 5 probably has the right idea.

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Would the French consider settling Jewish refugees in Algeria? They might be viewed as a means to dilute Muslim majority and thwart independence.

Was this based off of my thread?


Depends on who is sending them away. If its the UN or US, useing the American Navy, then first Cypus or Greece.


The British/French ones can goback to their home countries, while Alegia could take some. Most would go to America.


There was a plan to make a Jewish Homeland in Brazil.